Cubs to sign Kimbrel

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What's the rush? They need guys that can help them come postseason. They don't really need any help getting there. I know anything can technically happen, but the division is practically locked up.

Well, if you wait to make your moves until late July, and they don't work out, you don't have much recourse. As opposed to signing a guy now, which wouldn't preclude making further moves in July.

 

Or if one of our good SP goes down in the next two months and that becomes the priority, we may not have the resources to get both a top SP and top RP in trade. So having already procured one in FA becomes advantageous.

 

Plus we may need multiple relief additions, depending on how one feels about the current pen's staying power.

 

And home field advantage!

 

I should also say the division isn't locked up, to stave off any jinx.

[USAFChief]

 

So once they disappoint you there's no going back? There's nothing they can do to make up for failing us in some way. That sounds like a way to never enjoy following a sports team.

Heh, fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on point of view, I'm a Twins fan until the day I die, and there's little or nothing I can do about that. 

 

I reserve the right, however, to ***** about them, it's one of the things I enjoy. Another is never forgetting, or forgiving, mistakes. They don't get a pass from me for releasing David Ortiz, for example, just because the rest of the free world has moved on.

 

Win a half dozen WS's in an 8 yr span, and I'll potentially reconsider. Maybe.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Any chance of extending Buxton and/or Berrios probably evaporated on opening day.

Berrios is still on track to get a Severino/Nola type deal next offseason (he was a year behind them in service time).

 

Not sure about the Buxton comps at this point...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As far as your most recent round of numbers, the last thing I'm interested in doing is zooming out. I've already zoomed out to look at his full season stats from 2018 as opposed to just his poor second half and postseason. He's had an incredible career, and that certainly counts for something, but if I'm signing him I want to focus on who he appears to be right now.

I'm not zooming out, except to put your single-year changes in context. If he dropped in a rate from 2017-2018, but his 2018 rate still matched his 2015-2016 rates, how meaningful is that? You're the one who's using Kimbrel's 2017 as a barometer of his skill, when 2017 was basically his career year in many respects.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Depends. Can you identify a reliever who is undervalued and on the verge of a breakout? Can you identify your own prospect who is overvalued? Then you have some really nice potential upside in a trade. That's obviously difficult, much like trying to project what a relief pitcher is going to do in his ages 31-33 seasons

That would be nice, but you've got to be awfully confident you can find and execute one of these moves in the next couple months to really have a bearing on your Kimbrel decision. I'd say that's too optimistic of a goal, in-season, when you need results by the end of the season.

 

And with a position as wide as the pitching staff, there is nothing precluding that kind of trade in addition to a FA signing. (In fact, some might say the current staff could benefit from multiple additions.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins should go back to the Royals then. I bet if they took enough of Ian Kenndy's contract the Royals would be happy to dump him sooner rather than later, and he's a guy I think is going to have a really good second career in the pen; I always like those starters-turned-relievers, though usually earlier in their career. But his velocity has already jumped 3 MPH and he's using his cutter now more than ever, which sound like Twins-preferred changes.

That's an interesting target to be sure. Although Kennedy is still owed like $27.5 mil through 2020, so if you take on most of that, you're not getting much cost savings vs Kimbrel.

 

The Royals have also already cut payroll pretty well, with Gordon's contract expiring soon too. They may be looking to get more than just payroll relief with Kennedy, especially if they can get him dominating in the pen for a stretch themselves.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I'm not zooming out, except to put your single-year changes in context. If he dropped in a rate from 2017-2018, but his 2018 rate still matched his 2015-2016 rates, how meaningful is that? You're the one who's using Kimbrel's 2017 as a barometer of his skill, when 2017 was basically his career year in many respects.

I thought those year-to-year differences in contact rates were valuable in the conversation regarding his BABIP. That .216 mark from last year is a career low and way under his career mark of .260. That doesn't concern you? Wait, I know the answer to that.

 

You don't want to acknowledge his poor finish to last year or even any of the red flags in the full season numbers. Yes, there is a lot still to like. This is one of the best relievers ever we're talking about, of course there are things to get excited about. Your love of Craig Kimbrel is clearly unwavering, so I'll just stop now.

[nicksaviking]

 

Heh, fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on point of view, I'm a Twins fan until the day I die, and there's little or nothing I can do about that. 

 

I reserve the right, however, to ***** about them, it's one of the things I enjoy. Another is never forgetting, or forgiving, mistakes. They don't get a pass from me for releasing David Ortiz, for example, just because the rest of the free world has moved on.

 

Win a half dozen WS's in an 8 yr span, and I'll potentially reconsider. Maybe.

 

Ha, well hope we find out. What went wrong in those two years the Twins didn't win the WS though?

 

[nicksaviking]

 

That's an interesting target to be sure. Although Kennedy is still owed like $27.5 mil through 2020, so if you take on most of that, you're not getting much cost savings vs Kimbrel.

 

The Royals have also already cut payroll pretty well, with Gordon's contract expiring soon too. They may be looking to get more than just payroll relief with Kennedy, especially if they can get him dominating in the pen for a stretch themselves.

 

Yeah, he's not my top target, but definitely one I'd like to consider and one who may be available now.

 

My top target would be Felipe Vazquez, so I'm hoping the Pirates fall out of contention ASAP. He might be a tough or even impossible get, but the Pirates have been making some terrible trades lately and I'd like to get in on that action.

[prouster]

This team isn't really committed to winning.

Well, they’re 40-20 with a 9.5 game lead in the division. There’s still almost two months left to make multiple trades. Might as well start thinking about the Vikings, I guess.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I thought those year-to-year differences in contact rates were valuable in the conversation regarding his BABIP. That .216 mark from last year is a career low and way under his career mark of .260. That doesn't concern you? Wait, I know the answer to that.

 

You don't want to acknowledge his poor finish to last year or even any of the red flags in the full season numbers. Yes, there is a lot still to like. This is one of the best relievers ever we're talking about, of course there are things to get excited about. Your love of Craig Kimbrel is clearly unwavering, so I'll just stop now.

I don't have any particular love of Kimbrel; in fact, I posted how I kind of hate the idea of spending that much on any reliever. As soon as we can make an aggressive move to address the pen, I'll probably feel relieved we didn't sign him!

 

Just numbers and ranks without context don't generate much concern with me.  Like your latest -- "his .216 BABIP is way under his career mark of .260" -- you know what that difference is? 5 singles over the course of the season. Simply add 5 singles to Kimbrel's 2018 stat line and he has his career BABIP. Meanwhile, his 2018 barrel percentage and exit velocity were both better than his 2017 marks.

 

It just seems alarmist to present that BABIP, with no context, as another "red flag". That's all I'm pushing back against here. There just isn't a great surface stats case against Kimbrel, and that's okay.

 

I don't mind general Kimbrel skepticism. I'm actually warmest to the the postseason struggles idea. That's a small sample too, and he was facing great lineups, and to an extent he still got the job done, but it wasn't a great showing. But then again, I'm not sure we'll find an alternative with a better postseason track record -- Ken Giles was pretty awful in the 2017 postseason, Will Smith's only faced 5 batters, etc.

[USAFChief]

 

Ha, well hope we find out. What went wrong in those two years the Twins didn't win the WS though?

One year they traded Pyan Ressly the summer before, and once they didn't pounce on an opportunity that appeared too good to be true.

[Riverbrian]

Relievers are traded every trade deadline in large quantitites. I believe the days of  Torres for a Chapman rental are over. LONG LONG GONE by a wide margin.  

 

Teams are placing way more value on prospects these days and I believe relievers can be acquired for far cheaper prices than most of us imagine with memories of the Chapman rental and Matt Capps prior pricing in their heads. 

 

Last Year... The A's acquired Familia for what is now the 15th Ranked prospect in the Mets system and a hard throwing reliever that ended up being packaged with the 3 other players to the Brewers to acquire Keon Broxton (currently 26th in the Brewers system (Plus a Million Bucks of IFA Money). We didn't get a ton for Fernando Rodney last season. (Yeah I know... Rodney... I know). 

 

Now I understand we want a fear of god instilling machine to lock down the closer role. We want a name that we've heard of... but there are options and they won't cost what we might think. 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

With the August deadline gone and analytics more and more prevalent, I think we are venturing into new waters about mid-season trading.  I could be wrong, but I would bet a lot of deals get done between now and the All-Star Game.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With the August deadline gone and analytics more and more prevalent, I think we are venturing into new waters about mid-season trading.  I could be wrong, but I would bet a lot of deals get done between now and the All-Star Game.  

My gut tells me the August thing isn't that big of a deal, at least on the high end. Guys like Fernando Rodney would need to get moved earlier -- but does anyone want them except as a backup plan for better options?

 

Should be interesting to see for sure. 

[bird]

 

The Twins should go back to the Royals then. I bet if they took enough of Ian Kenndy's contract the Royals would be happy to dump him sooner rather than later, and he's a guy I think is going to have a really good second career in the pen; I always like those starters-turned-relievers, though usually earlier in their career. But his velocity has already jumped 3 MPH and he's using his cutter now more than ever, which sound like Twins-preferred changes.

 

 

 

Maybe not with the Royals, but I wonder if this line of thinking isn't very much in play for this FO. My guess is they have a laminated sheet with names and numbers of GMs managing teams with financial stresses, not just those who are out of contention or will be soon. And a second sheet, edited often, with names like Ian Kennedy on it. It would open up some potential opportunities.

 

I'm bummed about Kimbrel, but not inclined to label things as same old same old. While I'm skeptical about Mr. Brook's speculation that they passed on Kimbrel because of hard budget projections, I'm with him on the theory that they had a value and a financial risk calculation on Kimbrel and their offer was short of the mark. That's not same old stuff, but the FO's failure to add one more high-end reliever this off-season? I'm aware that it's factual that a majority of the available FA's mentioned this winter are flopping, I still maintain that failing to find just one, success or not, was same old same old.

 

I'm not at all opposed to shedding MiLB assets for MLB help. Loved the Odorizzi move. But passing on chances to fix a problem by forking out cash only and holding your prospect capital for perhaps a day when that capital has appreciated more? That's hard to take. They may have prospect capital to burn, but why not burn cash instead?

[bird]

 

Ha, well hope we find out. What went wrong in those two years the Twins didn't win the WS though?

 

 

According to Chief, he'll remember every last detail of those abysmal failings. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm bummed about Kimbrel, but not inclined to label things as same old same old. While I'm skeptical about Mr. Brook's speculation that they passed on Kimbrel because of hard budget projections, I'm with him on the theory that they had a value and a financial risk calculation on Kimbrel and their offer was short of the mark. That's not same old stuff, but the FO's failure to add one more high-end reliever this off-season? I'm aware that it's factual that a majority of the available FA's mentioned this winter are flopping, I still maintain that failing to find just one, success or not, was same old same old.

This describes my opinion almost perfectly.

[bird]

 

One year they traded Pyan Ressly the summer before, and once they didn't pounce on an opportunity that appeared too good to be true.

 

 

Told ya.

[USAFChief]

 

Told ya.

I also remember 87 and 91, to be fair.

[nicksaviking]

 

Maybe not with the Royals, but I wonder if this line of thinking isn't very much in play for this FO. My guess is they have a laminated sheet with names and numbers of GMs managing teams with financial stresses, not just those who are out of contention or will be soon. And a second sheet, edited often, with names like Ian Kennedy on it. It would open up some potential opportunities.

 

I hope they have a 3rd laminated sheet with GMs they believe do not have strong analytical leanings.

 

Scratch that. Our new age GM probably should be paperless by now, using editable PDFs and shareable Excel sheets instead

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I also remember 87 and 91, to be fair.

Which century?

[Major League Ready]

 

The complaints about the front office, cheapness, same old, etc. sound very similar to the complaints made when Yu Darvish signed his $123M contract with the Cubs. Seems like a lot of money for a 3-6 record, a 4.91 ERA, and a 1.49 WHIP over the past two years. For me, I'm willing to relax and see what happens between now and the trade deadline.

 

Sounds a lot like the complaints when they would not give up top prospects to get Archer who is now performing at replacement level.  Also sounds like the complaints when we would not give up top prospects to get Realmuto for two years.  Realmuto is still good but our catchers have performed better, especially Garver who has 4 more years under team control after this year.  Before that people complained we would not give up a top prospects ( Kepler or Polanco were mentioned) for 2 years of LuCroy.  Before that it was Tulo which would have been a nightmare.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Wasn't just about everyone? 

 

Everyone has also ignored the fact most of those high AAV relievers have performed poorly.  Collectively, they had zero WAR collectively,  That's $96M spent on those RPs this year alone and collectively they have produced replacement level value.  The year before that people complained we did not sign Davis who was mediocre last year and has only has 14 IP this year and is back on the injured list.  Point being, if they could have gotten Kimbrel on a 1 year or even 2 year deal, great, but spending big money on RPs has a really poor track record.

 

The highest paid RP is Britton and we were not getting him away from the Yankees.  Britton has .7 bWAR / Same as Ryne Harper

 

Familia is at -.6 WAR

Andrew Miller has 0 bWAR

David Robertson has 0 bWAR

Herrera has -.6 bWAR

Joe Kelly has -.8 bWAR

 

Ottavino has been the only standout  (using bWAR as a measure)  1.5 bWAR

 

 

[FlauerPauer]

Not disappointed at all with the Twins passing on a three year deal with Kimbrel. Would it have been nice on a one year deal? Sure, but definitely not a three year deal. Anyone wishing the Twins still signed Darvish?

[Riverbrian]

 

Everyone has also ignored the fact most of those high AAV relievers have performed poorly.  Collectively, they had zero WAR collectively,  That's $96M spent on those RPs this year alone and collectively they have produced replacement level value.  The year before that people complained we did not sign Davis who was mediocre last year and has only has 14 IP this year and is back on the injured list.  Point being, if they could have gotten Kimbrel on a 1 year or even 2 year deal, great, but spending big money on RPs has a really poor track record.

 

The highest paid RP is Britton and we were not getting him away from the Yankees.  Britton has .7 bWAR / Same as Ryne Harper

 

Familia is at -.6 WAR

Andrew Miller has 0 bWAR

David Robertson has 0 bWAR

Herrera has -.6 bWAR

Joe Kelly has -.8 bWAR

 

Ottavino has been the only standout  (using bWAR as a measure)  1.5 bWAR

 

I am completely out of the "I want Player X" game.

 

I have personal opinions on players but I remember being all for Addison Reed and Yu Darvish and I've come to the realization that my passion could be better spent elsewhere. 

 

I would have been happy with the Kimbrel addition but I'm still happy now that he's not coming.

 

Let's see what other avenue the front office travels down. 

 

I've said this multiple times... I'm going to let them use their data and make the decisions and sign who they want and I won't complain.  

 

I will know how they feel about every player on the 25 man roster based on how they deploy each player on the 25 man roster and that is how I will judge them. 

 

  

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

It's not an issue with team-friendliness or not. It's how the contracts are structured. They front-loaded Polanco and Kepler this year so they'd have more money to spend a few years down the road. They could just as easily back-load their next two extensions for 2022-2023 to keep the 2021 payroll in line, if they so desire.

Not really. Buxton will be ARB 3 in 2021, and Berrios will be ARB 2. The whole point of an extension, from a player's perspective is that they give up a couple of years of free agency to essentially guarantee their ARB salaries. They might give up a couple million for the sake of security, but it's not like they are going to play their ARB 3 year for a million bucks.

I'd imagine $20 million combined for 2021 if they are extended.

[Mr. Brooks]

Any chance of extending Buxton and/or Berrios probably evaporated on opening day.

 

And if $16M in 2021 is the difference, we're in serious trouble anyway.

Why would that mean we are in serious trouble? $16 million is almost 20% of a likely 2021 budget. Of course that is going to make a difference.

[Mr. Brooks]

The point is, "being disappointed if X doesn't happen" is such a cop out. When X doesn't happen, just move the goal posts.

 

"They need to do something is offseason. No, wait, they need to sign Kimbrel. No, wait, they need to trade prospects for these mythical relievers by July 1st. No..."

 

In any case, pretty sure Brock DID want Kimbrel, but once the Twins chicken out, suddenly it's OK.

 

And if you didn't want Kimbrel, fine, but in that case you should be upset with the Twins, no? They clearly DID want him, and apparently offered him a 2 yr contract. So they clearly DID think he was both needed and worthy.

Can't a person have wanted Kimbrel, while also understanding that the FO doesn't have an unlimited bucket of resources to operate from?

Why does it have to be, "you either have to want Kimbrel at any and all costs, or not want him at all?"

 

Some of us might have thought there was a decent chance Kimbrel would accept a 1 year deal, so he could try FA again next year with no draft pick restrictions.

It turns out he wasn't interested in that.

[Mr. Brooks]

The basic sentiment appears to be all free agent relievers are bad and never worth the money. With no MLB ready arms on the farm that leaves trades. So the Twins likely have to give up more than they got for Ryan Pressley to get a guy who is not as good as Ryan Pressley.

I don't believe I've read a single post that says, or even implies that.

It's possible I missed them though, could you point them out?