So when do we believe?

[Brock Beauchamp]

This team is 28-15, on the verge of 29-15. They are just +1 in pythag, just +1 in BaseRuns (if you look at the numbers, it's fractional and they're basically +0 after tonight).

 

I have to admit that I've been a pretty hard sell on this team and I still expect them to regress. Fangraphs has them at a 91 win pace. I don't disagree.

 

So what's your over/under on that?

 

I'm gonna fan out for a minute and go the over.

[70charger]

I'd take the over but not by much. This is not a 100+ win team, and this torrid pace isn't likely to continue. Low 90s is what I'd expect.

 

Still think they're likely to win the division, which would be great to see after nearly a decade.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins rest-of-season Fangraphs projection is a 53% win rate, which would equate to 86 wins over the course of a full season. Given the banked wins, it seems to me that over 91 (now 92?) is a better bet, particularly considering the weakness of the AL Central. Maybe 93 or 94.

 

Plus, there aren't many warning signs from a team-wide statistical standpoint. The Twins do not appear to have benefited from BABIP luck either offensively or defensively. Other metrics are a mixed bag, but nothing dramatic stands out. 

 

I think the biggest issue is pitching depth. The rotation actually worries me more than the bullpen, because scrounging up relievers is a lot easier than finding starters. The Twins' #6 and #7 starters are not what a club in their position would like to have (week to week it's difficult to even say who those would be). Their 'top' AAA starters have xFIPs in the mid-4s. Hopefully at least one of them starts putting things together, to present a viable #6 option.

[Squirrel]

I won't believe anything until I see where we are on August 17. But I'll certainly enjoy watching more of what I've seen so far until then.

[Dantes929]

 

The Twins rest-of-season Fangraphs projection is a 53% win rate, which would equate to 86 wins over the course of a full season. It seems to me that the over is a better bet, particularly considering the weakness of the AL Central. Maybe 93 or 94.

 

Plus, there aren't many warning signs from a team-wide statistical standpoint. The Twins do not appear to have benefited from BABIP luck either offensively or defensively. Other metrics are a mixed bag, but nothing dramatic stands out. 

 

I think the biggest issue is pitching depth. The rotation actually worries me more than the bullpen, because scrounging up relievers is a lot easier than finding starters. The Twins' #6 and #7 starters are not what a club in their position would like to have (week to week it's difficult to even say who those would be). Their 'top' AAA starters have xFIPs in the mid-4s. Hopefully at least one of them starts putting things together, to present a viable #6 option.

Either your premise is faulty or your math.    They are currently 29-15.  You said their rest of season win rate projection is 53%.    118 remaining games times .53 + 29 is 92.     If they just win half their remaining games they are at 88 games.     

 

What's to believe?   I believe if they continue to play well they can make the playoffs.   I believe if they win 107 games (current pace) or more they can still get beat by anyone.   I believe if they eke into the playoffs with 87 or fewer wins they are still capable of getting hot and lucky and beating anyone.  What I want is for them to be in contention in September and let the drama unfold as it may.   Its all I ever want from them.    

[psturnbloom]

I think I'll take the...over?

 

It's tough to say. Some days I have a lot of confidence (like when we won our third game at home over the Astros), and other days I feel like the other shoe is about to drop (watching our bullpen barely hang onto wins in the Angels series). I'm nervous, but I feel like the talent is there, especially in our lineup. If we're still able to pummel bad teams like the Mariners when two of our top sluggers are out of the lineup, that tells me we're going to continue to win games division-contenders should win.

 

I think I'll start to calm down more when I see us win more series against Cleveland. A sweep against them the next time we see them would be really nice.

 

We still need another strong bullpen arm, though. I submit that we find a different #5 starter and move Pineda to the bullpen. He's been lights out the first time through the order. Let's move that success of his to higher-leverage late innings!

[drivlikejehu]

 

Either your premise is faulty or your math.    They are currently 29-15.  You said their rest of season win rate projection is 53%.    118 remaining games times .53 + 29 is 92.     If they just win half their remaining games they are at 88 games.     

 

You misread me, but I could have worded it better, and made a tweak in that regard. The 86 wins comment was only to put the 53% in context, because most fans think of win totals rather than winning %.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think I'll start to calm down more when I see us win more series against Cleveland. A sweep against them the next time we see them would be really nice.

That's interesting because I'm looking past Cleveland. Unless the Twins are swept, I'm not worried about them much.

 

I suspect this team can build a 7+ game cushion against Cleveland because Cleveland just ain't that good with their stars (injured) and scrubs (definitely not good) roster.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I won't believe anything until I see where we are on August 17. But I'll certainly enjoy watching more of what I've seen so far until then.

Why Aug 17?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I said at the beginning of this month that I'd start believing if they kept it up for another month. So far, they have. Personally, I'm getting pretty excited. This team looks like a playoff team.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This team is 28-15, on the verge of 29-15. They are just +1 in pythag, just +1 in BaseRuns (if you look at the numbers, it's fractional and they're basically +0 after tonight).

 

I have to admit that I've been a pretty hard sell on this team and I still expect them to regress. Fangraphs has them at a 91 win pace. I don't disagree.

 

So what's your over/under on that?

 

I'm gonna fan out for a minute and go the over.

I’m a bit leery of letting my guard down. I seem to recall thinking the Twins were an 85 win team in Spring Training. If the play at that pace the rest of the way, it’s 92 wins. I’ll take the over.

 

I don’t think they are a 107 win team, but maybe 95. That would be 66-52 the rest of the way or 91 win pace over a full season.

 

Over clearly. I’m with you. Cleveland doesn’t have enough depth to overcome the Twins.

[dbminn]

I'll take the over but I think it will be close. Pitching depth is the big issue. 

[Platoon]

Some of the power numbers being put up by the hitters seem unsustainable, and the underpinnings of both the SP and RP don't appear to support the results. Will it all cave in? Hard to say. Magical seasons occur in baseball. But the pragmatist in me still thinks if it's too good to be true, it likely is. Baseball history is full of half season wonders. I do think they will still win the division. Frankly with the injuries Cleveland has sustained, and the rest of the division it's almost impossible not to win it. As for a playoff run? Give me pitching over hitting anyway!

[akmanak]

Everytime I have believed in the Twins they have faulted horribly, but it is getting hard not to believe in this team. I am just enjoying the beat downs we are giving medicore teams right now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This team is 28-15, on the verge of 29-15. They are just +1 in pythag, just +1 in BaseRuns (if you look at the numbers, it's fractional and they're basically +0 after tonight).

 

I have to admit that I've been a pretty hard sell on this team and I still expect them to regress. Fangraphs has them at a 91 win pace. I don't disagree.

 

So what's your over/under on that?

 

I'm gonna fan out for a minute and go the over.

 

Pretty sure I said 92 to start the year, so I guess I'm still over BTW... I'd have to go back and look though.

[Riverbrian]

Offense is bulletproof. 

 

I'll need to see the pitching depth. I'm worried we don't have sufficient depth but I want to be clear that I'm not saying we don't have it.

 

I'm saying... I'll need to see it or see how Rocco can navigate when a major arm goes down. 

 

We've been healthy thus far on the mound, who steps up when we are not is the question that needs to be answered. 

 

I am firmly in prepare for playoffs mode. We will be in them but I'm taking the under until I see pitching depth.  

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Offense is bulletproof. 

 

I'll need to see the pitching depth. I'm worried we don't have sufficient depth but I want to be clear that I'm not saying we don't have it.

 

I'm saying... I'll need to see it or see how Rocco can navigate when a major arm goes down. 

 

We've been healthy thus far on the mound, who steps up when we are not is the question that needs to be answered. 

 

I am firmly in prepare for playoffs mode. We will be in them but I'm taking the under until I see pitching depth.  

 

The nice thing is that there's always relievers at the deadline... and there's also a decent one that will most certainly sign somewhere in a couple weeks.

[Squirrel]

Why Aug 17?

Lol ... it’s just a random date in the future about two-thirds of the way through.

[Riverbrian]

 

The nice thing is that there's always relievers at the deadline... and there's also a decent one that will most certainly sign somewhere in a couple weeks.

 

I agree.

 

Relievers are like the National Enquirer, Chili's Gift Card and Gum, Impulse Buys of the trade deadline. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Lol ... it’s just a random date in the future about two-thirds of the way through.

 

I was confused as well. 

 

17th didn't make obvious sense... at least not like the 18th does.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Some of the power numbers being put up by the hitters seem unsustainable, and the underpinnings of both the SP and RP don't appear to support the results. Will it all cave in? Hard to say. Magical seasons occur in baseball. But the pragmatist in me still thinks if it's too good to be true, it likely is. Baseball history is full of half season wonders. I do think they will still win the division. Frankly with the injuries Cleveland has sustained, and the rest of the division it's almost impossible not to win it. As for a playoff run? Give me pitching over hitting anyway!

as other posters have said, relief pitchers are available at the trade deadline. A couple dang good relief arms acquired by the trade deadline and some reasonably good appearances by the likes of Stewart and Thorpe when injuries hit the rotation and this team could make a push. Bullpen depth has been the key to post season success and can be had.

[TheLeviathan]

How long does Wes Johnson's pixie dust last?

 

I believe this team is for real, but we will need to add pitching (starting and relief) to be a serious contender.

[nicksaviking]

I didn’t believe in the 2015 or 2017 teams as I said they didn’t feel like an actual cohesive unit. With those teams it never seemed like more than two or three players were ever playing well at one time. I said last winter I’ll believe this team would be ready to compete the when they more remind me of the 2001-2006 teams.

 

Well they do now.

[birddog]

I have no idea if we can continue at this pace, but I'm enjoying every minute of it now. How do Perez and Odorizzi reinvent themselves at their age? Faster fastballs. Sharper break on the breaking pitches. The new pitching coach and our hitting coach may be our MVP's so far! I give the front office a lot of praise for the moves they made this year. After all their moves from last year were busts, they were not afraid to fail this year and every move has paid off big time. 

 

I agree that Pineda is not our best bet at #5 and as always lots of doubts about Gibson as to what pitcher  will show up each inning. I hope Falvine cashes in on this opportunity and makes a major trade(s) for starting and relief pitching. The farm system is solid but let's live in the present. We could keep winning two thirds of our games--or we could falter due to injuries or some players reverting to mediocrity. I'll leave predictions to Carnac and just enjoy the brand of baseball we are currently seeing.

[Han Joelo]

Some of the power numbers being put up by the hitters seem unsustainable, and the underpinnings of both the SP and RP don't appear to support the results. Will it all cave in? Hard to say. Magical seasons occur in baseball. But the pragmatist in me still thinks if it's too good to be true, it likely is. Baseball history is full of half season wonders. I do think they will still win the division. Frankly with the injuries Cleveland has sustained, and the rest of the division it's almost impossible not to win it. As for a playoff run? Give me pitching over hitting anyway!

Pragmatist? More like cynic, or at least skeptic. Hair splitting aside, I get the sentiment. I’m loving this Team. The capital t is intentional, as they seem to have a lot of mojo and cohesiveness—the kind of team a GM should feel confident supplementing.

 

But it is a long way to the finish line, and stuff happens. I think it would be wise and pragmatic to supplemenT soon, while the iron is hot.

[denarded]

I’m loving this Team. The capital t is intentional, as they seem to have a lot of mojo and cohesiveness—the kind of team a GM should feel confident supplementing.

 

Post game victory hugs/rituals look sincere. The dugout seems more engaged (Maybe better mic placement) anyways, were not there and we don't know but this team does feel like a team and it seems to me these guys are having as much fun playing as I am watching them. Sorry for the longest sentence ever

[Nine of twelve]

Given that we have 65 games remaining within our division I am optimistic about reaching the postseason. I'm not real concerned about a win total as long as it's at least one higher than the second place team(s). Also, keep in mind that this is baseball. Win 4 out of every 8 games and you're mediocre. Do something to squeeze out a 5th win out of every 8 games and you're elite. 

[Monkeypaws]

I was watching the Red Sox on NESN via MLB app earlier this week, and the subject of the Twins popped up. After general agreement that the Twins look good, Eckersley and Remy got into a discussion of "when do you really know what kind of team you really have?" In their opinion, mid-May was too early. Their thought was that by mid-June, you have probably got good idea of what you have. 

 

Makes sense to me. Seattle and Boston have re-aligned in the last couple weeks to come closer to where they belong. The Twins have only gotten better as the season has progressed, and have banked wins against the best in the AL, so hopefully the wheels won't fall off in another month. 

[Han Joelo]

Jonah Keri was positively gushing about the Twins on national sports radio yesterday. Couldn’t believe they were actually talking baseball, let alone the Twins.

 

Having said that, I only heard the end of the segment, so they’d probably been talking about the Yankees for ten minutes before that.

[Nine of twelve]

 

Jonah Keri was positively gushing about the Twins on national sports radio yesterday. Couldn’t believe they were actually talking baseball, let alone the Twins.

Having said that, I only heard the end of the segment, so they’d probably been talking about the Yankees for ten minutes before that.

Speaking of the Yankees, they have had a ridiculous number of player-games on the IL but they are still leading the AL East with a record of 27-16. I shudder to think what they could be doing when everyone is healed.