Twins select RHP Austin Adams

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know it's been mentioned elsewhere, but there wasn't much discussion, so I thought I'd give Adams his own thread.

 

"Twins Option Trevor Hildenberger, Will Select Austin Adams"

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/05/twins-demote-option-trevor-hildenberger-select-austin-adams.html

 

 

He hasn’t had much success in the Majors outside of a 3.78 ERA in 33 2/3 innings with the 2015 Indians, but Adams is currently sporting a 28-to-6 K/BB ratio in 18 innings of work with Triple-A Rochester. He’s been tagged for three homers in that time and has a 4.50 ERA on the whole, but the K/BB ratio and Adams’ whopping 58.5 percent ground-ball rate are genuinely intriguing.

 

Adams is out of options (as you might guess, given that he's 32 years old with experience across 3 MLB seasons). That 3.78 ERA season with Cleveland was in mop-up usage (.44 gmLI, similar to the very last guys in recent Twins pens, like Breslow, Hughes, Dean, Drake), and a very low K% (15%). His modest success then was mostly due to a low HR rate (his xFIP was about a run higher).

 

But as the excerpt above suggests, perhaps he's a different pitcher now? He has never really sustained a ground ball rate above ~48% before, or a K% approaching 36% before. It's also fair to ask whether 36% K% at AAA is even meaningful anymore -- old friend Oliver Drake is at 46.1% this year. A lot of older guys on this list who probably won't make much difference in MLB:

https://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=2,4&qual=10&type=1&season=2019&team=0&players=0&sort=8,d

 

Is Adams a diamond in the rough, or a placeholder? There weren't many attractive options for relievers at AAA to replace Hildenberger right now, so it's not clear.

 

EDIT TO ADD: It was mentioned in the comments that the Twins 40-man is full, so another move will have to be made. I suspect Ronald Torreyes will be DFA.

[yarnivek1972]

Yes, K rates have to be considered in proper context. We are in a high K rate era. I would guess the league as a whole is somewhere between 20-25%.

[Vanimal46]

Placeholder... I think they should have taken advantage of the opportunity and give someone in AA a shot.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So do they need to DFA someone? Who goes? 

 

I would have expected to see Adrianza go when Sano got called up, but that didn't happen. That would also open up another 25 man spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So do they need to DFA someone? Who goes? 

Yes, they will need to open a 40-man spot. (I forgot that Morin already took De Jong's open spot.)

 

But it would be rather easy to cut Ronald Torreyes at this point. He might get claimed with his option remaining, but he's hitting .128 in AAA and has no path toward playing time in the MLB infield.

[PseudoSABR]

 

So do they need to DFA someone? Who goes? 

 

I would have expected to see Adrianza go when Sano got called up, but that didn't happen. That would also open up another 25 man spot.

Can they transfer someone to the 60 DL? Maybe Reed, even though he's on a rehab assignment.

[twins_89]

To open up a 40 man roster spot I'm guessing Reed (waive or 60 day IL) or Torreyes are removed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes, K rates have to be considered in proper context. We are in a high K rate era. I would guess the league as a whole is somewhere between 20-25%.

Yes, the International League K% is 23.2%. Five years ago, it was only 19.4%.

 

I imagine it would be higher for relievers than starters too, but I don't know that split.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Can they transfer someone to the 60 DL? Maybe Reed, even though he's on a rehab assignment.

They could do that too, but I'm guessing they'd feel such a move was premature for Garver and probably even Reed, given that the former could still be back sooner than 60 days and the latter is apparently healthy enough to pitch (although not pitch well).

 

If DFA Torreyes wasn't an option, perhaps they'd consider it, though. Or maybe they just wouldn't have added Adams in that case.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

They could do that too, but I'm guessing they'd feel such a move was premature for Garver and probably even Reed, given that the former could still be back sooner than 60 days and the latter is apparently healthy enough to pitch (although not pitch well).

 

If DFA Torreyes wasn't an option, perhaps they'd consider it, though. Or maybe they just wouldn't have added Adams in that case.

 

Reed is rehabbing right now. Putting him on the 50 man buys them what, a couple weeks? Also, b/c of rehab he's already on a clock to his return to MLB. 

[USAFChief]

yuk.

 

The front office has done a nice job in many areas, but the bullpen situation, both in terms of MLB options and 40 man options, is abysmal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Reed is rehabbing right now. Putting him on the 50 man buys them what, a couple weeks? Also, b/c of rehab he's already on a clock to his return to MLB. 

True. I guess they could transfer Reed to the 60-day DL without any real cost, except he couldn't be activated until May 27th at the earliest. It doesn't look like he would be activated before then anyway!

 

Edit to add: Reed's 30 days of rehab can run up through June 5th. Although they could sit him for at least a week and reassign him to a new rehab stint -- we did that with Ervin last year when he experienced a setback on his first rehab. Gets a little tricky, because Reed may consider himself healthy enough at some point to object to that. Phil Hughes was in a similar spot last year -- healthy enough to pitch, but not pitch well, so the 60-day DL wasn't really an option. We chose to DFA/trade him, and the Padres had to release him, rather than 60-day DL him.

[TFRazor]

I honestly didn't expect Harper to be any great shakes out of the pen when he came north with the team from ST. I will happily admit that he has proven me wrong so far and has been effective. Perhaps the analytics guys and Wes Johnson can work their magic twice.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I honestly didn't expect Harper to be any great shakes out of the pen when he came north with the team from ST. I will happily admit that he has proven me wrong so far and has been effective. Perhaps the analytics guys and Wes Johnson can work their magic twice.

True, but Harper has largely been used in lower leverage spots so far -- a .78 gmLI (game-entering leverage index). 1.0 is average. Trusted relievers are generally at 1.2 or higher; top set-up men and closers around 1.7.

 

Hildenberger led the Twins with a 2.01 gmLI so far in 2019, and someone else is going to have to step into those spots now (and perhaps be exposed):

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2019.shtml#players_value_pitching::14

[nicksaviking]

It was a long shot that Magill would last as long as he has, but then Harper, than Morin now Adams? 

 

I hope their luck (ugh, or skill if it's legit) holds in identifying these journeymen relievers. Every pen arm still on the roster has gotten the job done thus far so it's hard not to at least give some benefit of the doubt, but that's got to be the most unexciting relief corps I've seen in a long time.

 

[Vanimal46]

yuk.

 

The front office has done a nice job in many areas, but the bullpen situation, both in terms of MLB options and 40 man options, is abysmal.

What good is a top rated farm system if there aren't readily available reinforcements for the MLB team?

[ashbury]

yuk.

 

The front office has done a nice job in many areas, but the bullpen situation, both in terms of MLB options and 40 man options, is abysmal.

Concur. It's fine to sign a few arms like this during the off-season, to see what they might have to offer, through continued tinkering with adding a pitch or changing a delivery. But they need to dominate at AAA, for it to pay off in a call to the majors. If somehow our evaluators are seeing something beyond his numbers, it will be a PhD course in Inside Baseball and I will gladly tip my cap to them if it pays off; but I am not expecting this outcome.

 

To add to my dismay, when I look up Austin Adams on b-r.com, I pick the wrong one. "No, dummy, not the guy who pitched in the majors 2017-2019. The one who pitched 2014-2016." Oh, of course! Him!

[MMMordabito]

Adams has got to be a placeholder just having his turn open on this revolving door.  We'll probably see this over the next couple months until the trade deadline approach is decided.

 

I hope Falvine is going to choose to "go for it" sooner rather than later when Will Smith, Mychal Givens, et al. are already wearing new uniforms.

 

Understand them trying to be as patient as possible though.  The prospect prices for those guys will be sky high this early in the season.

[twins_89]

 

It was a long shot that Magill would last as long as he has, but then Harper, than Morin now Adams? 

 

I hope their luck (ugh, or skill if it's legit) holds in identifying these journeymen relievers. Every pen arm still on the roster has gotten the job done thus far so it's hard not to at least give some benefit of the doubt, but that's got to be the most unexciting relief corps I've seen in a long time.

 

Magill, Harper, Morin, and Adams are pitchers that would be fine as the 7th or 8th guys in the bullpen. Having 4 of that type of reliever on the 25 man roster is asking for trouble.

[KirbyDome89]

 

yuk.

 

The front office has done a nice job in many areas, but the bullpen situation, both in terms of MLB options and 40 man options, is abysmal.

Winning is a strong perfume.

[Vanimal46]

Winning is a strong perfume.

Also, a very attractive lipstick.

[DocBauer]

Placeholder... I think they should have taken advantage of the opportunity and give someone in AA a shot.

32yo, journeyman RP who has had a few cups off MLB coffee a few years ago and will be the last guy on the bullpen bench.

 

Agreed with someone from AA instead. Start his clock but at least you are challenging someone and taking a legitimate shot at something.

 

Or, if you just dont want to do that, OK, then bring up one of the lefties, even if their numbers dont seem to deserve it, and let Johnson work with them daily.

 

But this is actually below "meh".

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins' bullpen is right around league average in overall metrics and 6th in win probability added. I'm far from thrilled with the unit, but there is a hyperbolic negativity about it on here that doesn't line up with the actual results. 

 

Obviously, they will need to do something at the deadline if they want to seriously contend. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Placeholder... I think they should have taken advantage of the opportunity and give someone in AA a shot.

 

Apparently the minors just aren't that flush. They've supplied little help this year, and few people auditioned last year that are still helping this year. I'm confused.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

yuk.

 

The front office has done a nice job in many areas, but the bullpen situation, both in terms of MLB options and 40 man options, is abysmal.

It's been an uninspiring journey so far -- we got lucky with a half season of effective Belisle, but we also spun our wheels with Breslow and some Rule 5 picks (and another, not effective season of Belisle). Then Reed, Rodney, and Duke last year.

 

Parker looks good so far. But they've got a fair amount riding on Magill, Harper, Morin, and Adams now too.

 

Those are the external moves. We've gotten good results from inherited pen assets like Rogers and Pressly, although we've already cashed the latter in. Mixed to bad results on a few more inherited assets so far -- May, Hildy, Duffey, Moya, etc.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Apparently the minors just aren't that flush. They've supplied little help this year, and few people auditioned last year that are still helping this year. I'm confused.

 

You'd have to take that up with Keith Law, BA, etc. The Twins never said they had a bunch of young relievers on the way up.

[jkcarew]

With Nick Gordon shut down (yet again)...it might give pause to release Torreyes. Even such that he is, he's a SS with some major-league experience. No evidence (yet) that they view Gonzalez as a SS option if something were to happen to Polanco and/or Adrianze. Unfortunately, some of the best candidates for release on the 40-man are pitchers...some not young...that you're already being forced to use, or give multiple failed opportunities to...because there are no good alternatives.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You'd have to take that up with Keith Law, BA, etc. The Twins never said they had a bunch of young relievers on the way up.

 

Or starters, or what......because the SP and RP are mostly from outside the org. The 1B and DH and 2B? Outside the org. The utility guy? outside the org. For a team that has been pretty bad for years, and is building a "sustainably competitive organization", not much help is coming from the org.....This is about the organization, and looking at what it's done. 

[yarnivek1972]

The Twins' bullpen is right around league average in overall metrics and 6th in win probability added. I'm far from thrilled with the unit, but there is a hyperbolic negativity about it on here that doesn't line up with the actual results.

 

Obviously, they will need to do something at the deadline if they want to seriously contend.

The problem is that the guy who was being used in the highest leverage situations (Hildenberger) has just been relieved of that duty. That moves everyone up. Whether they are ready or not. Sure, someone could step up. And there really are no guarantees that a “proven” reliever from outside the organization would truly help. Indeed, that is the role Addison Reed was supposed to fill.

 

I’m beginning to believe that having a good bullpen is largely a product of luck. Sure, teams have to do their due dilligence in evaluating and acquiring candidates. But, any of them could get hurt or “lose it” without much warning.

 

I’m not sure there is a way to “guarantee” a good bullpen.

[nicksaviking]

 

Adams has got to be a placeholder just having his turn open on this revolving door.  We'll probably see this over the next couple months until the trade deadline approach is decided.

 

I hope Falvine is going to choose to "go for it" sooner rather than later when Will Smith, Mychal Givens, et al. are already wearing new uniforms.

 

Understand them trying to be as patient as possible though.  The prospect prices for those guys will be sky high this early in the season.

 

Or TBD. I'd guess most teams aren't willing to trade top end relief arms this early. If one team is willing to blow them away with an offer, they'd think, surely there are more, let's drag this out with a bidding war.

 

Though I'm not sure I'll end up wanting the guys seen as the cream of the crop, I usually don't put much faith in numbers translating across leagues and teams. Both of those guys would be fine as they're rarely ever great but they're consistently decent to good. I'll bet there are lesser known guys with better velocity, peripherals and fewer innings the last few years who'd intrigue me just as much.