This offense is going to drop off... or will it, given the addition of Sano?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think most of us can agree that this offense is not going to continue its torrid pace, though it should remain very good given its depth.

 

But there has been one weak spot thus far... Gonzalez. I think he'll turn the corner and be the league-average guy he usually is and that's a good thing to have in a tenth player... but Marwin isn't a tenth player right now.

 

What happens when Sano returns? Is he going to be the .750 OPS guy we've been frustrated with or will he be the .850 OPS guy we all know he can be?

 

Overall, I think we'll see some tapering off on offense from individual players, particularly home runs. But how much will overall output change if you add a .100 isoD, .500 SLG guy to the middle of the lineup? It pushes Rosario out of cleanup, which is not a great fit for him anyway.

 

Anyway, this next month will be interesting. If Sano comes back as a .750 guy, he's basically Gonzalez with bad defense. If he comes back as the Sano we all know can exist, this offense gets... nasty. There will literally be nine position players with the potential for 20+ home runs. That's straight up obnoxious.

[jorgenswest]

Sano can help but I think the right-left-right in the 3-4-5 spots will continue. I expect Rosario to stay in the 4th spot.

[TheLeviathan]

Sano might legitimately hit 6th or 7th in this lineup.  If he's Smashy Sano of old.....this is a ridiculously tough lineup.  

 

And if Buxton can keep this up (and improve ideally)....woofta.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sano can help but I think the right-left-right in the 3-4-5 spots will continue. I expect Rosario to stay in the 4th spot.

Good point. I kinda left Cruz out of my thinking, which is pretty ridiculous given hindsight.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sano might legitimately hit 6th or 7th in this lineup.  If he's Smashy Sano of old.....this is a ridiculously tough lineup.  

 

And if Buxton can keep this up (and improve ideally)....woofta.

This could literally be a lineup with nine position players that hit 20+ homeruns. It's rather absurd. There are no real stars but the lineup is littered with good to very good players, and that makes it very dangerous.

[Riverbrian]

 

This could literally be a lineup with nine position players that hit 20+ homeruns. It's rather absurd. There are no real stars but the lineup is littered with good to very good players, and that makes it very dangerous.

 

This is what I've been asking for. Depth, flexibility and a manager who use that depth and flexibility... Next step is to survive the injuries that will come and yes... down tick in production that will come. 

 

If pitchers can keep us in the games... this offense and defense can take it from there.  

 

Get some rentals in July to add more and yeah... the Twins are a dangerous team. 

[jkcarew]

Sano will get more pitches to hit in 3/4 of a season than he saw in the 3 previous seasons combined. I think the results could be pretty good. Also, I love the idea of Sano being glued to the side of Cruz at all opportunities, day after day, game after game. We’ll see.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is what I've been asking for. Depth, flexibility and a manager who use that depth and flexibility.

I'm pretty sure the Twins found that guy and gave him a roster to make it play.

[Riverbrian]

 

I'm pretty sure the Twins found that guy and gave him a roster to make it play.

 

So far so good with Baldelli. 

 

Other than that La Tortuga night benching of La Tortuga... He's doing alright.    

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So far so good with Baldelli. 

 

Other than that La Tortuga night benching of La Tortuga... He's doing alright.    

Actually, I kinda love that the manager is so off-beat with the marketing department. I think that's a good thing.

[Riverbrian]

 

Actually, I kinda love that the manager is so off-beat with the marketing department. I think that's a good thing.

 

I think it's funny. 

 

Dave St. Peter probably not so much. 

 

St. Peter will forgive him as long as the players keep hitting the ball like they are.  

[Rosterman]

I'm hoping for some Sano magic. They can't keep hitting Garver leadoff. Why not send Buxton to the top of the order and see if he can sustain ... anything. Rosario is so hot and so cold, it gives me shivers. Gonzalez is off to a slooooooow start. Considering he was basically the bench bat and replacement guy. Glad the Twins had Cave and Astulido around for awhile.

 

Not sure how the Twins are pulling this off, homer friendly team on the field. So many holes, in some ways.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

So far so good with Baldelli. 

 

Other than that La Tortuga night benching of La Tortuga... He's doing alright. 

 

Actually, I kinda love that the manager is so off-beat with the marketing department. I think that's a good thing.

Provus was questioning Baldelli the day after La Tortuga night (Willians Astudillo).

 

Provus launched into some complex, convoluted question about whether Baldelli knew if it was La Tortuga night, why didn’t the Tortuga get to start that game, whether he confers with the marketing guys before nights like this, and did Baldelli only insert Tortuga into the game as a pinch hitter because he heard the chants of the crowd?

 

After stammering for a moment and trying to figure out what the question was, Baldelli finally said, “I plead the fifth.”

[drivlikejehu]

The lineup with Sano back will be seriously deep. Even with conservative projections based largely on last year's mediocre results, Fangraphs projects the Twins to be 5th in MLB in runs scored the rest of the year (.16 per game behind the #1 projected Yankees).

 

If Sano is in better form, if Polanco and Kepler have legitimately improved . . . well, that's over 90 wins for sure.

 

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm hoping for some Sano magic. They can't keep hitting Garver leadoff. Why not send Buxton to the top of the order and see if he can sustain ... anything. Rosario is so hot and so cold, it gives me shivers. Gonzalez is off to a slooooooow start. Considering he was basically the bench bat and replacement guy. Glad the Twins had Cave and Astulido around for awhile.

 

Not sure how the Twins are pulling this off, homer friendly team on the field. So many holes, in some ways.

Yeesh, that's a hard take. Where you see holes, I see a bunch of good players.

 

Yeah, Rosario is hot and cold. That's how he rolls. He's basically Vlad Lite. 

 

Putting Buxton in leadoff is such an old idea. So he's fast, whatever. Kepler is a much better leadoff guy for so many reasons.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm hoping for some Sano magic. They can't keep hitting Garver leadoff. Why not send Buxton to the top of the order and see if he can sustain ... anything. Rosario is so hot and so cold, it gives me shivers. Gonzalez is off to a slooooooow start. Considering he was basically the bench bat and replacement guy. Glad the Twins had Cave and Astulido around for awhile.

 

Not sure how the Twins are pulling this off, homer friendly team on the field. So many holes, in some ways.

Why can't Garver lead off? He gets hits.

 

On the topic, I expect Sano to be about 25-35 percent better than league average this year.

 

Overall? I don't expect this team to be one of the best hitting teams ever. That seems unlikely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Overall? I don't expect this team to be one of the best hitting teams ever. That seems unlikely.

Well no, I don't think any reasonable person expects that. 

 

But they can and should be very good.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Why can't Garver lead off? He gets hits.

And home runs with men on base, to boot.

[Danchat]

I think the offense will drop down due to simple regression. Things usually don't go as they should, and I wouldn't be surprised if somebody gets hurt soon because we've been so healthy recently. But the offense should be a major strength through most the season.

[ScrapTheNickname]

Yeesh, that's a hard take. Where you see holes, I see a bunch of good players.

 

Yeah, Rosario is hot and cold. That's how he rolls. He's basically Vlad Lite. 

 

Putting Buxton in leadoff is such an old idea. So he's fast, whatever. Kepler is a much better leadoff guy for so many reasons.

I don't agree. I think Kepler is a place-holder at lead-off (as is Garver). The team is just waiting for Buxton, or someone else, to take it over.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think most of us can agree that this offense is not going to continue its torrid pace, though it should remain very good given its depth.

 

But there has been one weak spot thus far... Gonzalez. I think he'll turn the corner and be the league-average guy he usually is and that's a good thing to have in a tenth player... but Marwin isn't a tenth player right now.

 

What happens when Sano returns? Is he going to be the .750 OPS guy we've been frustrated with or will he be the .850 OPS guy we all know he can be?

 

Overall, I think we'll see some tapering off on offense from individual players, particularly home runs. But how much will overall output change if you add a .100 isoD, .500 SLG guy to the middle of the lineup? It pushes Rosario out of cleanup, which is not a great fit for him anyway.

 

Anyway, this next month will be interesting. If Sano comes back as a .750 guy, he's basically Gonzalez with bad defense. If he comes back as the Sano we all know can exist, this offense gets... nasty. There will literally be nine position players with the potential for 20+ home runs. That's straight up obnoxious.

 

I think to an extent you're already seeing it. Buxton has slowed down (though he has picked it up a bit lately) Polanco is slowing down and Rosie has been in a funk lately too...

 

The flip side is that the O is deep enough to compensate.

 

As for Sano, the good Sano can be better than that .850 OPS... and I do think that the depth of the lineup means that a guy like Sano is going to see more pitches he can hit. Once he returns, there won't be a single bat in the lineup that isn't dangerous. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think to an extent you're already seeing it. Buxton has slowed down (though he has picked it up a bit lately) Polanco is slowing down and Rosie has been in a funk lately too...

 

The flip side is that the O is deep enough to compensate.

 

As for Sano, the good Sano can be better than that .850 OPS... and I do think that the depth of the lineup means that a guy like Sano is going to see more pitches he can hit. Once he returns, there won't be a single bat in the lineup that isn't dangerous.

Sano can definitely be better than an .850 OPS, I was just using that as a baseline of what a “good” Sano should do on offense.

[stringer bell]

We've seen excellent offense, powered by home runs for the first 31 games. Almost every position player has gone through a skid of some sort and Gonzalez still is below the Mendoza Line. I really don't think the offense will slow considerably because of the depth.

 

I doubt the homers will continue at the pace they have occurred so far, but every starter and a couple of bench guys are 20-homer guys if they get 500 plate appearances, so they aren't dependent on one or two hitters. 

 

I don't care that Buxton is hitting ninth, whatever keeps the pressure off of him. He is the only guy who is stealing bases and is so important to the defense, I know it's a cliche, but any offense is a bonus and so far his offense is pretty good.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

We've seen excellent offense, powered by home runs for the first 31 games. Almost every position player has gone through a skid of some sort and Gonzalez still is below the Mendoza Line. I really don't think the offense will slow considerably because of the depth.

 

I doubt the homers will continue at the pace they have occurred so far, but every starter and a couple of bench guys are 20-homer guys if they get 500 plate appearances, so they aren't dependent on one or two hitters. 

 

I don't care that Buxton is hitting ninth, whatever keeps the pressure off of him. He is the only guy who is stealing bases and is so important to the defense, I know it's a cliche, but any offense is a bonus and so far his offense is pretty good.

 

I still want to see Buxton keep an OPS over .850 personally.. I guess I'm greedy. League average OPS as of this morning is .739. Buxton is over that, and when combined with his defense at such a key position means he's a very good player now...

 

But get that OPS up... and I think as he gets more confidence... he will.

 

He's already doing a much better job laying off bad pitches judging by his K and BB rates so far this season... would still like to see some improvement on both of those though before he's in the lead off spot. 

[rv78]

When Sano comes back, and Astudillo comes back, trade Marwin for a good closer. Make Garver the main catcher. He's better than Castro. Keep Rogers for the 7th or 8th inning. Don't rely on Hildenberger as other teams are figuring him out. He doesn't have the over-powering stuff needed. May can slot with Rogers in the late innings. Keep giving Romero his time in the games with big leads until he dominates consistantly. It will happen. I'd flip-flop Kepler and Polanco to lead-off. He is one of the few that does not give any of his at-bats away plus he is a switch-hitter. Perfect for the lead-off spot. Buxton still swings at way too many pitches out of the strike zone so he is sooo not ready for that role yet, and not sure he ever will be. 

 

We are getting what I expected from Cruz and Schoop but the guy I'm most impressed with so far this season is CJ Cron. He's played gold glove caliber first base and has not been disappointing with the bat. What a great pick-up. Marwin was and is a waste of money and a spot on the roster.

[bird]

 

I think it's funny. 

 

Dave St. Peter probably not so much. 

 

St. Peter will forgive him as long as the players keep hitting the ball like they are.  

 

 

Dave St. Peter is too busy to notice that. He's still scratching his noggin and wondering why the stands are empty even though he's giving the fans a "great ballpark experience".

[twinssporto]

The way this lineup is constructed I don't see a lot of reasons why this team would regress from a production standpoint.  

 

I think the HR trend will continue as most of these guys are either considered power hitters or at least 20+ HR players each year:  Cruz, Rosario, Cron, Kepler, Schoop, Sano, Garver, Polanco, (Buxton we can put on the bubble).  Don't forget, it looks like the balls are wound a little more tightly this year too.  It might be a record year for MLB homers.  

 

The way the current batting averages look I don't see any reason why there would be regression from a hitting perspective either. When I look at the lineup the only guy from a batting average perspective that seems to be playing above his capability (key word capability) is Garver at .333. What should he be? .275?  I actually think Garver is a legitimate .280+ hitter....Polanco may be playing above his norm as well at .313. What should he be at .280, .250?  I always thought he was a better hitter than given credit for and not surprised by his success.

 

The rest of the guys from an average perspective seem to be inline with expectations or below.  Rosario should be higher than .222, Gonzalez should be above .191, Cron should be above .221.

 

Buxton at .258 seems reasonable (although I think he can hit better), Schoop looks like he should be a .275 hitter and Kepler looks like Kepler at .257.

 

I actually think this teams offense can and will get better once warmer weather arrives.  I'm sure someone can throw out analytic data to refute my observations but looking at the qualitative and quantitative side of this, I think this team is gonna roll a lot of team over.

[bird]

 

I don't agree. I think Kepler is a place-holder at lead-off (as is Garver). The team is just waiting for Buxton, or someone else, to take it over.

 

 

Correct. Royce Lewis in 2021. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Dave St. Peter is too busy to notice that. He's still scratching his noggin and wondering why the stands are empty even though he's giving the fans a "great ballpark experience".

 

You can't fool the fans twice. We are from Minnesota.

 

Once they show up for La Tortuga night with no La Tortuga.

 

They are not going to show up for "Reusable Tote Night" because they'll know you can only use that tote once.

 

All trust is gone!!!  . 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Make Garver the main catcher. He's better than Castro.

pssst: according to bbtef game log Garver has caught 15 games to Castro’s 13 and the remainder by Willians.

 

You can never have too much of a good thing, and IMO, Castro is a really good catcher. I do agree that Sano’s return could have a trickle down to Willians, but I think Cave is the most likely casualty as he has options and Marwin is a reasonable 4th outfielder too