Cruz, Ramos, Cahill, and Soria

[beckmt]

I think most of us posters are concerned with the lack of signings.  Maybe the Twins budget is lower than any of us thought.  I am now looking at a payroll under 100 million and the start of erosion of the Twins faithful turning to not caring and not filling seats at the park.

[amjgt]

 

I think most of us posters are concerned with the lack of signings.  Maybe the Twins budget is lower than any of us thought.  I am now looking at a payroll under 100 million and the start of erosion of the Twins faithful turning to not caring and not filling seats at the park.

 

Quoting you, but not responding specifically to you....

 

Personally I think there has been way too much "the sky is falling" going on. I'm never surprised on Twitter because... well.... it's Twitter, but I have been surprised at the fans on here. I feel like it's been non-stop whining on here for 3 weeks. I generally believe the people on here be more logical and level headed, but I'm starting to lose faith in that.

 

If we get to Feb 1 and we haven't improved much from where we are now and/or our payroll is still pathetically low, then I'll be ripping the Twins like so many on here are already doing. 

 

I will say my radar is up on this 100M threshold though. I would've given in a 1% chance at the beginning of the offseason that they didn't get there (I thought they'd get to $120M-ish), but I have to say, I feel like I need to raise that number to about 10%.

 

There's absolutely no excuse not to get to $100M. None. And people should lose their S___ if payroll doesn't get there.

[Vanimal46]

Only person left that's available in this article is Cruz. Oh boy.

[beckmt]

I would prefer to be picking from the top or at least the middle of the barrel.  Not the bottom were it looks like we are heading now. 

[Han Joelo]

The Four Horsemen in the title of this thread would have been nice gets.  And now there is only one left.

 

I'm braced for a bonafide youth movement.  And strangely ok with it.  I'd like to see extensions for Berrios and Rosario.  I'd love for some sort of trade for a Gerritt Cole type to materialize--that would get my blood pumping.  Everything else is just Christmas time filler for me--fancy wrapping paper and junk from the Sharper Image that I ultimately didn't need anyway.

 

This is the type of year you get a gift certificate for a gym membership and some Omaha Steaks that you put in the freezer and forget about until grilling season.  

[Major League Ready]

 

I think most of us posters are concerned with the lack of signings.  Maybe the Twins budget is lower than any of us thought.  I am now looking at a payroll under 100 million and the start of erosion of the Twins faithful turning to not caring and not filling seats at the park.

 

Already there … Attendance has been eroding since they peaked at 3,223,640 the first year at Target Field (2010). Attendance last year was 1,959,197 which is roughly 40% off the peak in 2010. If you look at 2016-2018, attendance went up roughly 90,000 last year when they made the playoffs and then dropped back this year to a level almost identical to 2016.

 

2018 - 1,959,197
2017 - 2,051,279
2016 - 1,963,912
2015 - 2,220,054
2014 - 2,250,606
2013 - 2,477,644
2012 - 2,776,354
2011 - 3,168,116
2010 - 3,223,640
2009 - 2,416,237

[Major League Ready]

 

Quoting you, but not responding specifically to you....

 

Personally I think there has been way too much "the sky is falling" going on. I'm never surprised on Twitter because... well.... it's Twitter, but I have been surprised at the fans on here. I feel like it's been non-stop whining on here for 3 weeks. I generally believe the people on here be more logical and level headed, but I'm starting to lose faith in that.

 

If we get to Feb 1 and we haven't improved much from where we are now and/or our payroll is still pathetically low, then I'll be ripping the Twins like so many on here are already doing. 

 

I will say my radar is up on this 100M threshold though. I would've given in a 1% chance at the beginning of the offseason that they didn't get there (I thought they'd get to $120M-ish), but I have to say, I feel like I need to raise that number to about 10%.

 

There's absolutely no excuse not to get to $100M. None. And people should lose their S___ if payroll doesn't get there.

 

Where do we sit today?

[Mike Sixel]

80 million. League median will likely be around 110-120. They'd have to spend fifty percent more to get there....

[Vanimal46]

Already there … Attendance has been eroding since they peaked at 3,223,640 the first year at Target Field (2008). Attendance last year was 1,959,197 which is roughly 40% off the peak in 2008. If you look at 2016-2018, attendance went up roughly 90,000 last year when they made the playoffs and then dropped back this year to a level almost identical to 2016.

 

2018 - 1,959,197

2017 - 2,051,279

2016 - 1,963,912

2015 - 2,220,054

2014 - 2,250,606

2013 - 2,477,644

2012 - 2,776,354

2011 - 3,168,116

2010 - 3,223,640

2009 - 2,416,237

I can only imagine what the attendance numbers look like next year if there isn't a moderately big signing this offseason.

 

My friends that are casual Twins fans are apathetic to the team. I don't know if I will watch this team much at all in 2019 as things stand today. It might be time to embrace the Texas teams and adopt a fun team like the Astros.

[scottz]

The offense is settled:

C - Castro, Garver

1B - Cron

2B - Schoop

SS - Polanco

3B - Sano

UT - Adrianza, Torreyes

OF - Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave

I'm not savvy to all the details of who has options and who doesn't, but assuming options are available, Astudillo rides the shuttle to Rochester any time there a catcher or infielder is banged up. If an OF gets a boo-boo, we get to see whoever is hot and or least likely to get lost if options are a problem for Granite, Wade, or Reed. If Cruz is signed, Adrianza and Torreyes are competing for a spot on the 25, and one of the pitchers (like Curtiss) falls off the 40. If they sign Machado, HA HA HA HA HAHA HAHA HAHA HAHAHAH AHAH AHAHAHA HA.

 

Rotation is Berrios, Gibson, and Pineda. Primary pitchers are Odorizzi and Mejia. Not sure how firmly they will employ the opener strategy vs just planning on Odorizzi and Mejia going 4-5 with long relievers piggybacked.

 

Relievers are May, Rogers, Reed, Hildenberger, Moya, Magill, Vazquez, Duffey. If they sign 1-2 relievers, 1 or 2 of Moya, Vazquez, and Duffey ride the shuttle, assuming they have options. Also riding the shuttle are any starters/long relievers on the 40 man if there are injuries or occasional episodes where the starters tax the bullpen. Any of them. Whoever is hot and whoever is physically available on the day(s) needed. That includes Stewart, DeJong, Slegers, Littell, Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Romero. I don't think they are signing a starter.

 

Any reliever they sign will cost at the very most, $10 million per year. Top end. They would have to sign 2 of the best remaining free agent relievers to spend another $20 million. I actually think it's more likely that they sign Cruz and 1 reliever than 2 relievers. But the most likely scenario in my mind is just 1 reliever, on a 2 year, $7-8 million per year sort of thing, which would leave them short of $100 million. Cruz and a reliever puts them over $100 million. 2 relievers would likely leave them short of $100 million, unless you assume they get Kimbrel and Robertson, and I've already used the HA HA HA bit, so let's not assume that.

 

Unless they sign Cruz, they will be less than $100 million.

 

Also, be ready to hear that the Phil Hughes money and Erv and Logan Morrison buyouts are counted towards 2019 team salary, to edge closer to the $100 million.

 

I must be a real chump because I'm looking forward to seeing what that roster can do.

 

Also, it's the shortest day of the year, so we are on our way to baseball season. Let's go, Twins.

[Winston Smith]

Let's face the facts, the Pohlads don't care if they ever win another Championship. They only care about making money. With all the media money they get, if they win or not, they have no reason to spend money. 

[Major League Ready]

 

I can only imagine what the attendance numbers look like next year if there isn't a moderately big signing this offseason.

My friends that are casual Twins fans are apathetic to the team. I don't know if I will watch this team much at all in 2019 as things stand today. It might be time to embrace the Texas teams and adopt a fun team like the Astros.

 

I have read a few articles trying to figure out revenue drivers. It's a lot harder to forecast than I expected. The correlation to any given driver is not as strong as one might think. I doubt a "big signing" has any significant impact. They have never had a big free agent signing unless you count Mauer. I would actually think the core performing would be more meaningful to fans but it would think team success has  much more impact on attendance than signing a free agent unless it's a Harper/Machado type signing. 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I can only imagine what the attendance numbers look like next year if there isn't a moderately big signing this offseason.

My friends that are casual Twins fans are apathetic to the team. I don't know if I will watch this team much at all in 2019 as things stand today. It might be time to embrace the Texas teams and adopt a fun team like the Astros.

 

I don't think the fans are going to go to the game because of a free agent signing unless it was somebody like Bryce Harper. No one came out to watch Lance Lynn, Addison Reed, Logan Morrison and Fernando Rodney last year. Fans will come out if the team is winning.

 

Which may be easier if the get the right free agents. But of course there's still a lot of finger-crossing with that as well seeing as they got a lot of these decently renowned free agents last year and still flopped on the field and in the stands..

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think the fans are going to go to the game because of a free agent signing unless it was somebody like Bryce Harper. No one came out to watch Lance Lynn, Addison Reed, Logan Morrison and Fernando Rodney last year. Fans will come out if the team is winning.

 

Which may be easier if the get the right free agents. But of course there's still a lot of finger-crossing with that as well seeing as they got a lot of these decently renowned free agents last year and still flopped on the field and in the stands..

 

Concur. Attendance will only improve with winning. Though, if we don't trust the FO to be better than lucky on FA signings, they aren't the right FO.....Y'all know how I feel about last year's signings already.

[Winston Smith]

 

Concur. Attendance will only improve with winning. Though, if we don't trust the FO to be better than lucky on FA signings, they aren't the right FO.....Y'all know how I feel about last year's signings already.

And once the attendance slips it is very hard to get it back. Look at what's happened in Clev. 

[Monkeypaws]

 

Let's face the facts, the Pohlads don't care if they ever win another Championship. They only care about making money. With all the media money they get, if they win or not, they have no reason to spend money. 

 

Sorry Winston, I disagree.

 

Why bother owning a sports team in this market when there are probably better returns on investment for the Pohlads elsewhere?

 

If they really didn't give a hoot TR would still be the GM and Gardy the manager. 

 

The Twins being cheap is an old and tired trope. You can waste money on iffy contracts and iffy players, and suffer the negative consequences of opportunity cost. 

 

If they lay out the big bucks, best be to fend off the Yankees and Dodgers for players they developed themselves. Keeping your best players is the best the Twins should hope for, provided they rediscover the art of developing star-level players that is 

 

I'm looking at you Jose Berrios!

[Vanimal46]

Sorry Winston, I disagree.

 

Why bother owning a sports team in this market when there are probably better returns on investment for the Pohlads elsewhere?

 

If they really didn't give a hoot TR would still be the GM and Gardy the manager.

 

The Twins being cheap is an old and tired trope. You can waste money on iffy contracts and iffy players, and suffer the negative consequences of opportunity cost.

 

If they lay out the big bucks, best be to fend off the Yankees and Dodgers for players they developed themselves. Keeping your best players is the best the Twins should hope for, provided they rediscover the art of developing star-level players that is

 

I'm looking at you Jose Berrios!

There's no better return on investment anywhere than owning a sports team. The valuation of this franchise rose 600% ($1 billion) over the last 15 years. What other industry provides that kind of return no matter what the product looks like?

 

The Twins still spend less than the MLB average on payroll. Being cheap is still the reality, even if we think it's a tired topic. In fact, Aaron Gleeman posted a chart on Twitter showing their spending on payroll compared to the MLB average is nearly identical since they were in the Metrodome.

 

The Twins have no problem wasting time of core players by not supplementing them.

[nicksaviking]

 

There's no better return on investment anywhere than owning a sports team. The valuation of this franchise rose 600% ($1 billion) over the last 15 years. What other industry provides that kind of return no matter what the product looks like?

The Twins still spend less than the MLB average on payroll. Being cheap is still the reality, even if we think it's a tired topic. In fact, Aaron Gleeman posted a chart on Twitter showing their spending on payroll compared to the MLB average is nearly identical since they were in the Metrodome.

The Twins have no problem wasting time of core players by not supplementing them.

 

While I have no love for the Pohlad's and I am convinced their desire for a championship still takes a backseat to the bottom line, this team doesn't have enough core players to supplement right now. Hopefully more emerge this year.

[Dman]

 

There's no better return on investment anywhere than owning a sports team. The valuation of this franchise rose 600% ($1 billion) over the last 15 years. What other industry provides that kind of return no matter what the product looks like?

The Twins still spend less than the MLB average on payroll. Being cheap is still the reality, even if we think it's a tired topic. In fact, Aaron Gleeman posted a chart on Twitter showing their spending on payroll compared to the MLB average is nearly identical since they were in the Metrodome.

The Twins have no problem wasting time of core players by not supplementing them.

 

While I agree with some of this we haven't really had a team worth supplementing since they got in to the new stadium.  Other than the first year or two it has been one disaster after another. 

 

I don't want to be an apologist for the front office but they seem to be around 18 to 22 out of 32 teams in spending so they certainly spend more than some teams. Last year they spent more on payroll than any team in their division except Cleveland.  

 

We all know that spending money on FA players doesn't equal success and it seems that most teams build a core before spending big to fill holes.  After the successful wild card run in 2017 the Twins thought they had a core and tried to supplement the team by spending 131M and it didn't work out that well.  

 

Personally I don't think now is the time for this team to spend big on long term contracts for free agents.  I would wait like they did last year and try and pick up talent that makes sense on 1 or 2 year deals. We have a lot of pitchers at AAA that we need to determine if they can make it in MLB or not (i.e. Gonsalves, Littel, Romero, Mejia, Slegers, Thorpe, Stewart).  If they can't make it as starters we should try them in the pen.  If guys fail then we need to get them off the 40 man (I'm looking at you Duffey).  If they make it then that is one more spot filled with a guy we essentially control for the next 6 years.

 

I would see how the young players perform this year and with a pretty stocked farm if the core is working\the team winning they have assets to trade to improve the team before the end of the year.  Also if young players perform they should have the payroll flexibility to talk about extensions for players it makes sense to extend.  That might be Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polonco or Berrios.  Can't extend them all but would be nice to have as much money as possible to tie up as many you can.

 

I agree that free agents can really help supplement teams but so often we see players about to decline and given we don't have a 200M payroll we can't afford to make bad long term decisions.  Find the core and if the FO and the Pohlads don't spend then I will be right there with you saying they don't really want to be successful.  Right now what this team has for talent is anybodies guess.

 

FWIW if they are bad this year and they don't get those AAA guys time I am going to be really pissed at the FO.

[Shaitan]

 

There's no better return on investment anywhere than owning a sports team. The valuation of this franchise rose 600% ($1 billion) over the last 15 years. What other industry provides that kind of return no matter what the product looks like?

 

That increase in value doesn't do them any good unless they sell the team. 

[Mr. Brooks]

That increase in value doesn't do them any good unless they sell the team.

That's true of any investment.

It'd be practically impossible for them to find a bigger return on investment than they've gotten from owning the Twins.

[Brandon]

There's no better return on investment anywhere than owning a sports team. The valuation of this franchise rose 600% ($1 billion) over the last 15 years. What other industry provides that kind of return no matter what the product looks like?

 

The Twins still spend less than the MLB average on payroll. Being cheap is still the reality, even if we think it's a tired topic. In fact, Aaron Gleeman posted a chart on Twitter showing their spending on payroll compared to the MLB average is nearly identical since they were in the Metrodome.

 

The Twins have no problem wasting time of core players by not supplementing them.

You also have to take into account the Twins have the worst local media contracts in MLB. The local media is good at framing the Pohlads as cheap and swindlers when the Pohlads tried different things like a local sports channel....

 

And that may be keeping our payroll lower than it should be.

[Major League Ready]

 

There's no better return on investment anywhere than owning a sports team. The valuation of this franchise rose 600% ($1 billion) over the last 15 years. What other industry provides that kind of return no matter what the product looks like?

The Twins still spend less than the MLB average on payroll. Being cheap is still the reality, even if we think it's a tired topic. In fact, Aaron Gleeman posted a chart on Twitter showing their spending on payroll compared to the MLB average is nearly identical since they were in the Metrodome.

The Twins have no problem wasting time of core players by not supplementing them.

 

 

I never understand why people use the MLB average payroll as a measure of what the Twins should spend. That would make some degree of sense if the Twins produced revenue equal to the MLB average. They do not. Plus, teams maximize spending when contending and the Twins have not been in serious contention in quite awhile. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

MLB teams keep their books private. St. Peter has said television revenue does not restrict payroll. The Twins did not "maximize spending when contending" back in 2017. Nelson Cruz is still a free agent.

[DocBauer]

FWIW, there is an interesting piece by Souhan on the Tribe I read today. (Don't read him often, to be honest). He sat down and spoke with Falvey for about an hour and discussed Cruz and RP Cody Allen, basically telling Falvey the team should sign both.

 

While not speaking about Cruz directly...and why would he...he made some comments I feel are worth mentioning. He spoke about giving young players their opportunity, and how adding a veteran bat would end up displacing a young player,and a call like that was a hard decision. But he also stated that sometimes that veteran hitter was just a good fit for the club and what kind of impact it could have on the club, and the players around him, taking pressure off players, and creating an infectious nature with his production and veteran presence, both for the next 2 years and beyond. He stated he's even seen this affect previously.

 

There was no direct hint betrayed to Cruz or any other potential move. But it seems obvious there has been thought given to an addition.

[ChrisKnutson]

FWIW, there is an interesting piece by Souhan on the Tribe I read today. (Don't read him often, to be honest). He sat down and spoke with Falvey for about an hour and discussed Cruz and RP Cody Allen, basically telling Falvey the team should sign both.

While not speaking about Cruz directly...and why would he...he made some comments I feel are worth mentioning. He spoke about giving young players their opportunity, and how adding a veteran bat would end up displacing a young player,and a call like that was a hard decision. But he also stated that sometimes that veteran hitter was just a good fit for the club and what kind of impact it could have on the club, and the players around him, taking pressure off players, and creating an infectious nature with his production and veteran presence, both for the next 2 years and beyond. He stated he's even seen this affect previously.

There was no direct hint betrayed to Cruz or any other potential move. But it seems obvious there has been thought given to an addition.

I can understand this kind of hesitation toward signing Cruz, but not Allen. We need a closer, Allen is a legit proven closer (coming off a bad year), why not sign him and move May to a multi-inning relief role??

[DocBauer]

I can understand this kind of hesitation toward signing Cruz, but not Allen. We need a closer, Allen is a legit proven closer (coming off a bad year), why not sign him and move May to a multi-inning relief role??

To be fair, there was no "no" given to Cruz directly, nor any other addition by Falvey. In fact, IMO, his comments lent themselves toward being interpreted as to the Twins at least thinking seriously about adding a veteran bat that could positively influence the lineup, and roster, for the next couple of years.

 

Honestly, if you gave me the choice of Cruz or Lowrie at this point, I'm not sure who I'd choose. Both can hit, take professional AB, provide OB, and both bring pop/power. Cruz provides more thunder. Lowrie could play 2B or 3B, DH even, and provide insurance for Sano, and increased lineup flexibility.

 

OH! I forgot to mention Souhan watched one of the video clips of Sano working out and said he seemed to move well and looked to be in good shape and leaner.

 

Souhan never touched further on Allen, or the pen, at least in regard to anything Falvey said. But I agree with you 100% on Allen. That move makes so much sense it's ridiculous! An only 30yo proven closer with a great track record coming off a bad season...and a player your FO knows well...is practically gift wrapped for a 2-3yr deal.

 

I'm still sold, also, on Herrera for a 1yr deal with incentives coming off his foot injury. I'd prefer a 1+1 with incentives based on injury and potential return to form.

[ChrisKnutson]

To be fair, there was no "no" given to Cruz directly, nor any other addition by Falvey. In fact, IMO, his comments lent themselves toward being interpreted as to the Twins at least thinking seriously about adding a veteran bat that could positively influence the lineup, and roster, for the next couple of years.

Honestly, if you gave me the choice of Cruz or Lowrie at this point, I'm not sure who I'd choose. Both can hit, take professional AB, provide OB, and both bring pop/power. Cruz provides more thunder. Lowrie could play 2B or 3B, DH even, and provide insurance for Sano, and increased lineup flexibility.

OH! I forgot to mention Souhan watched one of the video clips of Sano working out and said he seemed to move well and looked to be in good shape and leaner.

Souhan never touched further on Allen, or the pen, at least in regard to anything Falvey said. But I agree with you 100% on Allen. That move makes so much sense it's ridiculous! An only 30yo proven closer with a great track record coming off a bad season...and a player your FO knows well...is practically gift wrapped for a 2-3yr deal.

I'm still sold, also, on Herrera for a 1yr deal with incentives coming off his foot injury. I'd prefer a 1+1 with incentives based on injury and potential return to form.

Honestly, we would’ve been waayyy better off NOT signing Schoop (Cron too), and just signing both Cruz and Lowrie. However, when it comes to Herrera, it could go either way for me, but ultimately I’d rather we stay away from him because of the recent foot injury and (mainly) previous elbow issues in 2017, not mention he may overprice himself due to his youth and track record.

[yarnivek1972]

While I agree with some of this we haven't really had a team worth supplementing since they got in to the new stadium. Other than the first year or two it has been one disaster after another.

 

I don't want to be an apologist for the front office but they seem to be around 18 to 22 out of 32 teams in spending so they certainly spend more than some teams. Last year they spent more on payroll than any team in their division except Cleveland.

 

We all know that spending money on FA players doesn't equal success and it seems that most teams build a core before spending big to fill holes. After the successful wild card run in 2017 the Twins thought they had a core and tried to supplement the team by spending 131M and it didn't work out that well.

 

Personally I don't think now is the time for this team to spend big on long term contracts for free agents. I would wait like they did last year and try and pick up talent that makes sense on 1 or 2 year deals. We have a lot of pitchers at AAA that we need to determine if they can make it in MLB or not (i.e. Gonsalves, Littel, Romero, Mejia, Slegers, Thorpe, Stewart). If they can't make it as starters we should try them in the pen. If guys fail then we need to get them off the 40 man (I'm looking at you Duffey). If they make it then that is one more spot filled with a guy we essentially control for the next 6 years.

 

I would see how the young players perform this year and with a pretty stocked farm if the core is working\the team winning they have assets to trade to improve the team before the end of the year. Also if young players perform they should have the payroll flexibility to talk about extensions for players it makes sense to extend. That might be Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polonco or Berrios. Can't extend them all but would be nice to have as much money as possible to tie up as many you can.

 

I agree that free agents can really help supplement teams but so often we see players about to decline and given we don't have a 200M payroll we can't afford to make bad long term decisions. Find the core and if the FO and the Pohlads don't spend then I will be right there with you saying they don't really want to be successful. Right now what this team has for talent is anybodies guess.

 

FWIW if they are bad this year and they don't get those AAA guys time I am going to be really pissed at the FO.

There are 30 teams.

[Major League Ready]

 

MLB teams keep their books private. St. Peter has said television revenue does not restrict payroll. The Twins did not "maximize spending when contending" back in 2017. Nelson Cruz is still a free agent.

 

When the 2017 budget was constructed, the twins were coming off a 103 loss season in 2016. Therefore, it would stand to reason they would not maximize their budget in 2017. One could argue the Twins were still not serious contenders in 2018. However, the Twins FO took an optimistic approach and constructed a roster with the highest payroll in team history.

 

The revenue part of this post is a mess. For starters, I did not say TV revenue, I said revenue. I don’t know the context of St Peter’s statement but there is no form of business (including non-profit) where revenue does not dictate relative ability to spend.  The position the Twins should spend equivalent to the average MLB still team still only makes sense if their revenue is average. Whatever St Peter had to say has nothing to do with the validity of this equation. If their revenue was $375M which would equate to the team being roughly the same amount above average in revenue, would we be satisfied with them spending the average?