A way, way too early look at the 2019 rotation. And yet...

[DocBauer]

This is stupid! Its way, way too early! And we will have months ahead of us to discuss the 2019 season. And yet, between a disappointing 2018, and NUMEROUS discussions on the ML and milb side of things, trades, September call ups, etc, maybe it's not so crazy to discuss at this point. After all, what are our favorite team playing for at this time other than figuring out 2019?

 

NOT talking about the pen, or positional players. I'm just talking about a proposed rotation for 2019. Period.

 

We can talk at length about the evolution of pitching. Everything from the sudden dominance of bullpens, to the Rays experimenting with RP starting games before giving way. But at the end of the day, pitching still wins out, overall, especially SP. And this is my focus here.

 

However you want to define an ACE or #1 SP for a rotation, or even a high quality #2, they don't grow on trees or hit the market very often. Unless you get lucky, you don't often find one via trade unless you are very smart or lucky. Witness the Pirates recent trade for Archer. He could end up being AWESOME for them. But the talent they gave up would probably be 3 of the Twins top 5 or 6 prospects. Would it be worth it? Despite SO and UP, has Archer ever demonstrated he is a true ACE? Bless the Pirates of he does, but I use Archer as an example because he bas been tied to the Twins a time or two before.

 

And please, let us not go down the Darvish or Lynn rabbit hole yet again. Darvish could end up as a huge mistake, or rebound greatly. Lynn was a short term signing who brought a couple interesting prospects. NONE of that influences the Twins rotation for 2019!

 

Concentrating on 2019:

 

Berrios is a stud. He is a very young stud, still growing and learning. Barring some setback, he is a bona fide #1 or #2 starter at worst. I think we are all past the Gibson disappointment ERA to realize he is a #2 or #3. He has grown and found himself. Hey, get over being a late bloomer, the guy is GOOD. Odorizzi is actually a good #5 To potentially better #4.

 

Who else is there? Well, unless you are living under a rock, you know who Romero is, what he brings, and what his potential is. Some complain about slow promotions with the Twins, but we sure didn't see it with Romero this year. He looked AWESOME when brought up, along with average, and we've seen a mix of both at Rochester. But do you really doubt what you and the FO has seen? He has the potential to surpass Berrios by the end of the season as our best SP.

 

It's way too early to count on Pineda, but his first start was encouraging. And some September work should only bring about excitement for a slot in the rotation for 2019.

 

Gonsalves is past ready for an introduction/indoctrination. Guys like Littell and Slegers are decent backups while someone like Thorpe may blow everyone out of the way.

 

Do the Twins really need to blow the roof off by signing a huge FA? Or do they need to keep the status quo and take a flier on someone and see what mid season brings, and maybe make a Verlander move?

[IndianaTwin]

I’m going to offer an opinion and then prepare to get crushed.

 

But I hope that they give Santana as many starts as possible to see if he’s able to fully recover and then consider picking up his option. You named several options, and I like all of them, but I’m also not excited about going into the season with two guys who are unproven. That calls for a one-year make-good contract on someone.

 

With his option, that’s effectively what Santana is. He’s also a known quantity in the clubhouse and to the staff, which I think is an advantage. I thought Lynn was a great signing, but something apparently didn’t work here (though it’s working in N.Y.). I’d rather the devil you know than the one you don’t.

 

In other threads, there have been “only on a reduced contract” comments. With the amount of payroll flexibility, I’m not sure it’s worth alienating a guy by trying to nickel-and-dime a veteran over a couple million. If he demonstrates that he’s far enough back and trusted doctors are of the opinion that another six months will provide more healing, I’d go with the full option.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think we will need help this offseason for rotation. If anything, I suspect we might trade a pitcher. We've got some good depth and ceiling coming up in the minors. Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda are pretty much locks. Mejia and May are out of options. I wouldn't be shocked if Odorizzi is traded. I also wouldn't be surprised if they dealt one of Mejia, May, Gonsalves, Slegers, or Littell. I really hope that Thorpe and Romero are untouchable. 

 

Edit: forgot Stewart... that's another one who could be traded.

[nicksaviking]

The free agent market is pretty thin assuming Kershaw isn't coming here, but I wouldn't be opposed to a trade that would slot someone in ahead of Berrios to make the Twins rotation competitive with the AL's elite. There's lots of packages I'd offer the Mets for one of their two studs. I'm open to other possibilities as well.

 

I don't think there's any reason to pick up Santana's option. He might have to settle for a MiLB deal next year and if he does get an actual MLB contract it's going to be for a fraction of the $14M his option calls for. If the Twins want him, they can get him for much, much less after he becomes a free agent.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't think we will need help this offseason for rotation. If anything, I suspect we might trade a pitcher. We've got some good depth and ceiling coming up in the minors. Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda are pretty much locks. Mejia and May are out of options. I wouldn't be shocked if Odorizzi is traded. I also wouldn't be surprised if they dealt one of Mejia, May, Gonsalves, Slegers, or Littell. I really hope that Thorpe and Romero are untouchable. 

 

Edit: forgot Stewart... that's another one who could be traded.

 

Agree on all fronts, but while the team doesn't need help, I'd still take some upgrades if they were presented. They don't need any more mid-to-back of the rotation guys though, that's for sure. Upgrade big or not at all. 

 

Some of those young starters probably don't have a ton of value on their own but would make great complimentary pieces in a bigger deal to a team who wants some "MLB ready" players. I'd really push to move Gonsalves in a big deal, and he might be able to be a headliner or at least a really good 2nd piece. He's the one prospect that I don't trust but has also put up a really good season, at least with the surface numbers.

[ashbury]

I’m going to offer an opinion and then prepare to get crushed.

 

But I hope that they give Santana as many starts as possible to see if he’s able to fully recover and then consider picking up his option. You named several options, and I like all of them, but I’m also not excited about going into the season with two guys who are unproven. That calls for a one-year make-good contract on someone.

 

With his option, that’s effectively what Santana is. He’s also a known quantity in the clubhouse and to the staff, which I think is an advantage. I thought Lynn was a great signing, but something apparently didn’t work here (though it’s working in N.Y.). I’d rather the devil you know than the one you don’t.

 

In other threads, there have been “only on a reduced contract” comments. With the amount of payroll flexibility, I’m not sure it’s worth alienating a guy by trying to nickel-and-dime a veteran over a couple million. If he demonstrates that he’s far enough back and trusted doctors are of the opinion that another six months will provide more healing, I’d go with the full option.

The front office is on the hook for $1M, even if they void the option year. So it comes down to whether the additional $13M could be put to better use in some way. I'm inclined to think "Yes", but that is absent a realistic review of pending free agents - and that list could still change, so as was stated at the outset, it's "way, way too early" except to think broadly.

 

I don't think I'd try to bargain Ervin down. It's too likely to be taken as a slap in the face, moreso than "we've decided to go in a different direction". $13M isn't much for starting pitching these days, so if he's not worth that, he's not worth having on the roster, IMO.

 

But, Erv's got a few more starts to show us something. I could change my view.

[laloesch]

 

I thik Santana's status is one of the first things they need to decide. He is not pitching well at all this year, but we can't forget that he was lights out in 2017 - 16-8, 3.28 ERA, 211 innings, 1.13 WHIP. He had a 4.46 FIP in 2017 but he has historically tended to have a better actual ERA than his FIP so one has to question the usefulness of that stat. Maybe the guy just knows how to pitch and minimize damage. Pitching is an art more than a science after all. Anyway, the 2017 Santana is your #2 starter, a lesser version a #3, this year's guy a DFA candidate. Bottom line, we have to decide if Santana can regain his form after the surgery so he HAS to get consistent starts the rest of the season.  As for the thought that we could not exercise his option and re-sign him for less, I say good luck with that unless you're willing to committ to multiple years.  He's a proud guy, a veteran that has been suceessful and most importantly, he a person, not a robot. If the team doesn't show faith in him by execrcising the option or signing him to a 2 year, less per year but more total $$ deal he will go somewhere else even if it's for for less money. 

 

I think Santana will regain form and the best thing for us is Santana in the rotation on a one year deal by exercising his option, Leader if we're successful, deadline trade bait if we stink. Also would allow us to try to trade Odorizzi because if Santana is gone, we need to have that 3rd stable starter and we don't know what Pineda will give us. Likely Starting rotation in 2019 as the season begins - Berrios, Gibson, Santana, Pineda, Romero/Mejia/Gonsalves, probably Romero. Mejia, Stewart and Gonsalves get starts when we have the inevitable injury or ineffectivensss from one of the first 5. Littel moves to the Bullpen as the long man. Thorpe at AAA and could pass any of the last 2 in the rotation or first two call ups if he keeps going quickly.  May as a late inning relief pitcher.  

 

He will be 36 this December. I'd like to see some uptick in velocity and better control otherwise i'd buy him out.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Agree on all fronts, but while the team doesn't need help, I'd still take some upgrades if they were presented. They don't need any more mid-to-back of the rotation guys though, that's for sure. Upgrade big or not at all. 

 

Some of those young starters probably don't have a ton of value on their own but would make great complimentary pieces in a bigger deal to a team who wants some "MLB ready" players. I'd really push to move Gonsalves in a big deal, and he might be able to be a headliner or at least a really good 2nd piece. He's the one prospect that I don't trust but has also put up a really good season, at least with the surface numbers.

 

I don't know. The league doesn't value 1B/DH types at the moment. Might be an easy way to acquire a decent bat that could help in 2019. Not sure if there's a team that has a surplus, but if so, I'd be looking to flip one of those guys for a good bat. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't know. The league doesn't value 1B/DH types at the moment. Might be an easy way to acquire a decent bat that could help in 2019. Not sure if there's a team that has a surplus, but if so, I'd be looking to flip one of those guys for a good bat. 

 

I guess I didn't clarify, but my second paragraph wasn't a specific endorsement of trading for pitchers, just trading in general from the young MLB-capable pitchers the Twins are starting to stockpile.

 

And yes I know, you can never have too much pitching.

[Lonestar]

What do you think it would talk to sign Nathan Eovaldi?  That would improve the top of the rotation and make some of our pitching prospects more readily available in trade.

[yarnivek1972]

Twins rank 9th in AL for starters ERA.

 

No upgrade needed?

 

The 5 playoff teams will likely all rank in the top 6. Three AL teams have starters’ ERA under 3.55, about .8 lower than the Twins.

 

If your goal is competitive mediocrity, no upgrade is needed. If your goal is a championship, an upgrade is most definitely needed. Acquiring said upgrade will not be an easy task, but IMO it should definitely be an offseason goal.

 

Maybe not top priority, but second or third.

 

My priorities would be

 

1) third base or second base

 

2) top bullpen arm, perhaps a closer, but am open minded regarding roles

 

3) top of rotation starter in my pipe dream

 

4) first base/designated hitter

[jkcarew]

I agree with Santana getting starts to see if things snap back. And if it’s marginal, I buy him out in a New York second. The last thing we need is a below-average 36-year old in the role of 4th or 5th starter sucking up starts, a roster spot, and money that can be spent elsewhere, no matter the amount.

 

I do agree that looking for a #1 or #2 type, via FA or trade, should still be on list of things to try this off-season.

[yarnivek1972]

So, if Clayton Kershaw is a pipe dream, how realistic would Dallas Keuchel be?

 

Obviously a step below Kershaw, but who isn’t?

 

He’s still very good.

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs wrote up Thorpe today.....saying he could be mid rotation as early as next year. All the below assumes health, obviously.

 

Gibson, Berrios, Mejia are locks, imo.

 

Odorizzi is between those three and the next group, and might be a very good RP experiment. Or trade bait (packaged with others).

 

Pineda, Thorpe, Romero, Gonsalves are the next set.

 

IMO, they could really use 1 more very good pitcher. I'd try for a Met, I think. I don't have any interest in ESan right now, but I guess that could maybe change over the next month. Maybe.

[howieramone2]

The locks are Berrios, Romero, Pineda, and Gibson. I have no problem packaging a starting pitching prospect in a blockbuster. One of the talking heads will have our farm system in the top 5 this off-season.

 

 

[caninatl04]

Yes, trading for an ace would be wonderful.  But, 31 other teams will also be looking for an ace and Minnesota isn't exactly a preferred destination for free agents.  And yes, if a very big if) Santana were to somehow defy the years and regain both velocity and the slider, $13 mill is a good price.

 

However, might I suggest that, going forward, we ignore an "ace" and Santana for purposes of the discussion.

 

I agree with DieHard that that leaves the Twins with Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda, with Pineda maybe #3.  As I've mentioned on other threads, I like Romero as a potential closer a la Roberto Osuna (without the baggage, we hope).  The fifth spot could be decided in spring training between Meija or Gonsalves. 

 

In 2020, since we're being silly, Thorpe could replace Pineda.

 

On a different note, the Twins will have a LOT of money to spend.  (Aside from Santana, they have three players under contract for a total of $24.5 million).  I kind of agree with Yarnavik, but my priorities would be:

 

1. Third base (we want you back Eduardo!)

2. Reliever

3. Reliever

 

I think the minors are filled with 1B / DH types (plus, hopefully a resurgent Sano).

[IndianaTwin]

 

Twins rank 9th in AL for starters ERA.

No upgrade needed?

The 5 playoff teams will likely all rank in the top 6. Three AL teams have starters’ ERA under 3.55, about .8 lower than the Twins.

If your goal is competitive mediocrity, no upgrade is needed. If your goal is a championship, an upgrade is most definitely needed. Acquiring said upgrade will not be an easy task, but IMO it should definitely be an offseason goal.

Maybe not top priority, but second or third.

My priorities would be

1) third base or second base

2) top bullpen arm, perhaps a closer, but am open minded regarding roles

3) top of rotation starter in my pipe dream

4) first base/designated hitter

 

I'm not averse to an SP upgrade. Having a Sale would be great, but the best way to improve the SP ERA is to eliminate 20 starts of Lynn (5.10), 11 of Romero (4.69) and 26 combined from Santana, Slegers, Hughes, Stewart, and Littell. That's 48 percent of their games. I'll use them because they are convenient, but a healthy Santana and a healthy Mejia probably would have eliminated a whole lot of those crummy starts. (And while I'm at it, I'd like to see how much Odo would improve following an Opener.) 

 

The Twins have used 11 different starters. By contrast, the Astros have only used 5 starters all year. Boston has only had 12 starts from guys with an ERA over 4.04 for the year. (I'll also note that only 20 of Houston's and 22 of Boston's are from guys under age 27. I like the Twins prospects a lot, but that kind of experience is why I'm reluctant to have two rookies in the rotation from the get-go.)

 

My preference for an SP upgrade would be to wait for May (the month, not Trevor). The Twins have lots of potential for next year, but still a fair number of question marks as well, more than can probably be dealt with in a single offseason. Even with what appeared on the surface to be a significant offseason, one more upgrade wouldn't have made the difference this year. Similarly, I'd be reluctant that even signing Kershaw this offseason wouldn't be enough if we have similar bad luck due to injury. By waiting 40 games or so to make the big splash, we know whether it's worth it. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

My preference for an SP upgrade would be to wait for May (the month, not Trevor). The Twins have lots of potential for next year, but still a fair number of question marks as well, more than can probably be dealt with in a single offseason. Even with what appeared on the surface to be a significant offseason, one more upgrade wouldn't have made the difference this year. Similarly, I'd be reluctant that even signing Kershaw this offseason wouldn't be enough if we have similar bad luck due to injury. By waiting 40 games or so to make the big splash, we know whether it's worth it.

Where are you going to get a SP upgrade in May? From AAA, perhaps, but that is about it.

[DocBauer]

I am willing to consider bringing Santana back as well. I am not downplaying his surgery, but not sure a finger compares to TJ, a hip or knee, etc. Meaning, after such a good 2017, it may be the velocity does get cranked up again to normal. But he absolutely has to show something more than he has shown this far. The feel and velocity simply aren't there at this time. I dont want to bet against him, but he needs to finish the season looking much more like his old self.

[yarnivek1972]

I am willing to consider bringing Santana back as well. I am not downplaying his surgery, but not sure a finger compares to TJ, a hip or knee, etc. Meaning, after such a good 2017, it may be the velocity does get cranked up again to normal. But he absolutely has to show something more than he has shown this far. The feel and velocity simply aren't there at this time. I dont want to bet against him, but he needs to finish the season looking much more like his old self.

IMO, he’s finished.

[Twins33]

My personal locks are Gibson and Berrios with hopes that Pineda is too. I'd want them to go and get a guy better than Berrios and Gibson (or at least as good as). Odorizzi would be on the trade block if that pitcher is acquired. Fifth spot is reserved for Mejia, Gonsalves or Romero.

 

At this point it's an easy no for me on Santana's option. I'd rather watch Mejia or one of the younger guys rather than a 36 year old Santana. He was great, but if this is who he's going to be, he's not worth 14M or even 8M..no matter how much free money the Twins have to spend.

[Mike Sixel]

 

My personal locks are Gibson and Berrios with hopes that Pineda is too. I'd want them to go and get a guy better than Berrios and Gibson (or at least as good as). Odorizzi would be on the trade block if that pitcher is acquired. Fifth spot is reserved for Mejia, Gonsalves or Romero.

At this point it's an easy no for me on Santana's option. I'd rather watch Mejia or one of the younger guys rather than a 36 year old Santana. He was great, but if this is who he's going to be, he's not worth 14M or even 8M..no matter how much free money the Twins have to spend.

 

Mejia is out of options, if he's not on the roster, he's gone.....so I think he's a lock.

[Twins33]

Mejia is out of options, if he's not on the roster, he's gone.....so I think he's a lock.

I know but i think he's a BP option if he doesn't make the starting rotation so I don't think he will be gone.

[DocBauer]

I know but i think he's a BP option if he doesn't make the starting rotation so I don't think he will be gone.

Absolutely. Now, is that with Roger's or with Roger's AND Moya potentially and they keep 3 lefties?

 

Berrios, Gibson and Pineda are locks for me and Odorizzi about as close to a lock as you can get. Mejia-Gonsalves-Romero fight for a spot..and maybe two.

 

Hoping things break just right and Odorizzi could be moved elsewhere, or moved to the pen where his lack of depth in a game wouldn't be such a factor and his stuff could play up even better.

[nicksaviking]

 

I am willing to consider bringing Santana back as well. I am not downplaying his surgery, but not sure a finger compares to TJ, a hip or knee, etc. Meaning, after such a good 2017, it may be the velocity does get cranked up again to normal. But he absolutely has to show something more than he has shown this far. The feel and velocity simply aren't there at this time. I dont want to bet against him, but he needs to finish the season looking much more like his old self.

 

Maybe it's not the finger, maybe it's just because he's almost 36. I think most of us have been waiting for the other shoe to drop on Santana for a couple years now, this might just be it and the finger has little to no correlation.

[FlauerPauer]

What about Patrick Corbin? He should be a free agent. He may not be in the class of Kershaw, but he is pretty dang good.

[DocBauer]

Maybe it's not the finger, maybe it's just because he's almost 36. I think most of us have been waiting for the other shoe to drop on Santana for a couple years now, this might just be it and the finger has little to no correlation.

Nick, I absolutely agree with you. Was actually disheartened watching him in his latest start. He seemed solid his first few innings, and had a nice lead. Suddenly it was gopher ball after gopher ball.

 

Just to be perfectly clear, I've never argued Santana SHOULD be brought back. I've simply pondered/wondered as to whether or not some IP, and an off season to prepare wouldn't bring back control and velocity. Sometimes guys absolutely fall of a cliff. They are just done. It's just a little bard to bet against him "all in" when you look at what he did last season, even with a finger that troubled him at times.

 

I've read arguments that pride, past success, etc, that Santana would scoff or feel insulted on a lower 1 year deal. But i would argue tbe reality of this season, and shifts in the market, that may be what it takes for him to continue to pitch...if he wants to. Maybe he feels he's done. Maybe he wants another season or two in the sun. With all due respect to him, his career, and what he's done as a Twin, I think the reality is a 1 year flier with incentives. And I don't mean just from the Twins. Would it be outlandish to see the Twins pass and he only got milb deal with an invite?

 

In my ideal scenario, Berrios and Gibson would lead the staff. Pineda is almost a given, and has looked decent/good early and with velocity. Let us not kid ourselves on Romero. MAD stuff and potential! We've seen what he is capable of. But not only is he young, he missed a bunch of early developmental time. And the "tentative" organization promoted him aggressively. He is going to easily surpass previous IP this year. And he SHOULD be a virtual lock for next season. I believe he has another option, at least. So you can always do a brief re-set to AAA at some point if you need to. Much like how Berrios was handled. And as much as I love Berrios, and have always argued his potential, Romero could be a half season to a full season away from supplanting him as the Twins #1 guy.

 

That's 4. And a 4 I feel really good about!

 

In my "ideal" Gonsalves FINALLY gets his deserved shot. And I expect him to do what he's always done: show flashes, have some bad innings and starts mixed in, but learn to adapt. By all reports, his breaking stuff has looked better this year, despite some BB issues he hasn't shown before. And yet, his SO per are up. How many teams would love to have a tall, lanky LHSP with a decent low 90's FB with a great change and improving breaking pitches with a proven track record? Get him up here, get his feet wet, and get the process of his ML development started!

 

Mejia has ability. He could still claim a spot, absolutely. But I'm seeing, hoping, for a rotation...eventually if not immediately...of Berrios, Gibson, Pineda, Romero and Gonsalves with Mejia in the pen with Rogers. (Maybe with Moya as well For 3 LHRP).

 

Where does that leave Odorizzi? Part of the rotation as you need more than 5, and injuries and options occur. Potentially, he could be traded. His stuff might also play up big time in the pen.

 

Thorpe, who probably projects more than either Mejia or Gonsalves, Littell, and possibly Stewart and Slegers, along with additional promotions, for depth.