Trade Deadline Discussion Thread

[diehardtwinsfan]

May as well setup a talking thread for the trade deadline today. It will be a busy day across baseball, and I'm guessing the Twins will be in it. They've already done a good job unloading pending FAs, and got a pretty decent return for Pressley as well.

 

So who goes today?

 

My guess. Rodney for sure, though I'm not expecting a huge return. Probably a bit better than Duke... maybe a top 15-20 prospect in someone's system.

 

I give Dozier a 50/50 shot to go. 

 

I think Gibson stays. His odds are less than 10% in my opinion, especially if the Rays take a while on deciding Archer. 

[Tom Froemming]

This is gonna be fun. I wouldn't be shocked if the Twins didn't make another trade, but I also wouldn't be shocked if they had three more deals today. 

[Squirrel]

It would be weird to see Dozier in a Cleveland uniform tomorrow. But my guess is he doesn’t get traded by this deadline.

[Monkeypaws]

Boston going for Kinsler just leads me to further believe that Dozier ain't going nowhere. Every contender with a need at 2B has gone a different direction.

[70charger]

Dozier is the one I'm watching most closely. He seems to have played himself out of a market.

 

Similarly, I wouldn't be shocked to see Rodney moved, for a bag of balls at best, but I'm struggling to see a landing spot for him.

 

I highly doubt Gibson gets traded, and with the possibility of rebound from guys like Sano and Buxton, plus further development out of Berrios and Romero, plus Eddie just staying Eddie, I want Gibson to stick around. No reason to punt on 2019.

[Vanimal46]

I don't think Dozier gets moved until August and at that point the Twins will basically give him away.

 

Rodney I don't think gets moved at all. There's 75 other RH relievers that are on the market and he hasn't been particularly good lately.

[jorgenswest]

Boston going for Kinsler just leads me to further believe that Dozier ain't going nowhere. Every contender with a need at 2B has gone a different direction.

I wonder if the Twins had the same offer for Dozier of two AAA relievers already on the 40. The only reason to take that deal is to dump salary. The last thing the 40 needs going into the winter is more AAAA relievers. The front office would have to really believe in one of those guys to take the deal.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I’d rather Dozier be traded because if he’s not traded I fear we will resign him. I don’t want to resign him as I think Dozier was hit his peak and will only regress offensively from here on out.

[Loosey]

 

I’d rather Dozier be traded because if he’s not traded I fear we will resign him. I don’t want to resign him as I think Dozier was hit his peak and will only regress offensively from here on out.

I have the same fear.  My hope is they trade him, he goes on a 2 month, 15 home run tear and some team overpays for him next year.

[jtkoupal]

Brian Dozier since July 1: 5 HR, .765 OPS, 101 wRC+, 0.39 WPA

-In other words, just a tick above average, but has shown good power (.455 SLG)

 

Since All-Star Break, however:

 

.456 OPS, 21 wRC+, 2 2B, 0 HR.

-In other words, absolutely awful.

 

The Twins may be stuck eating Dozier for the rest of the year. You would like to move him, but he isn't worth more than a bucket of baseballs. The only silver lining is that the Twins are in no particular rush to get Nick Gordon MLB at-bats at this point, given Gordon's struggles at AAA.

[Tom Froemming]

I think the lack of a Dozier market has maybe created an opportunity for him to be a good waiver trade candidate now. I can't see any team putting a claim on him unless they were interested in working out a deal. He may even clear waivers. Obviously the return isn't going to be great, but that's the same boat we're sitting in today.

 

Plus, who knows, maybe Dozier gets hot and a contender has a need at 2B open up due to injury next month/

[Han Joelo]

If the going rate for Dozier is the same as it was for Kinsler, I don't see him getting moved right now.  Once they are well and truly 100% out of it in August, I can see him getting moved to a contender, possibly.  A "soft" break-up that mitigates any offseason messiness vis a vie a QO.

 

As with Dozier, keeping Rodney would keep alive the pretense that the Twins still have a chance.  Verdict: Stays.

 

Bobby Wilson, on the other hand, will likely surprise us all and net a tidy little haul.

[jtkoupal]

Twins deadline (remaining) to-do list:

 

Keep: 

-Kyle Gibson

-Anyone under team control past 2019 (that means Trevor Hildenberger, too)

 

Trade:

-Fernando Rodney

-Jake Odorizzi (if possible)

-Brian Dozier (if possible)

-Ervin Santana (if possible)

 

DFA:

-Matt Belisle

-Logan Morrison

 

Recall:

-Tyler Austin

-Fernando Romero and/or Stephen Gonsalves

-Alan Busenitz

-John Curtiss OR Tyler Duffy OR Trevor May OR Lewis Thorpe

[Dr. Beanpole]

Anyone else think they should be pestering the Houston FO today trying to talk them into taking Dozier? Altuve on the DL and Correa with no return in sight, and they're in the middle of trying to win the division. Seattle just acquired some pieces too... might not be a bad spot.

[Thebigalguy]

Before they traded Escobar, they offered him an extension, no details available, and he turned it down. They could compete next year, that's for sure, and I think that figures into their thinking, too. With Sano, WYSIWYG. Buxton, though, is baffling. We need him in the outfield, but not if he can't hit better than Cave. He should see the sports psychologist who helped Gibson. All these prospects from trades  strengthen the farm system. Since it's hit-and-miss, that helps. If they keep Gibson, as I hope, it tells me they want to win again soon, since he's obviously come-of-age. Gibson, Berrios, Santana (who could be traded), Odorrizzi (who could be traded) provide a foundation that can be improved as other starters on the cusp find their good stuff. Falvine obviously think they can get hold of relievers easily, which is why they let Pressly go, a player I had thought could be next year's closer. I hope Molitor, who keeps it all inside, isn't developing an ulcer. I expect to see Dozier go if they get something decent in return. Otherwise, I predict he'll find little free agent interest and might sign with the Twins for a year or two, until Gordon is ready. Disappointing season (though it's not over, and hope lives eternal), but I'm more optimistic than many on this thread.

[gocgo]

Never mind what might happen and who might be traded...we actually got something for Lance Lynn.  I'm still trying to absorb that.

[Twodogs]

If Dozier gets hot I could see him go in August, otherwise the Twins will offer him a QO and he will probably still split which the Twins will get a nice draft pick for him.

[70charger]

 

If Dozier gets hot I could see him go in August, otherwise the Twins will offer him a QO and he will probably still split which the Twins will get a nice draft pick for him.

 

At $18 million? I don't see it.

 

I see them offering a one year, make good contract. Maybe something between what Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn got?

[slash129]

 

I don't think Dozier gets moved until August and at that point the Twins will basically give him away.

Rodney I don't think gets moved at all. There's 75 other RH relievers that are on the market and he hasn't been particularly good lately.

 

Ramirez and Alonso are still looking for the holes in their bats though.

[jtkoupal]

 

Anyone else think they should be pestering the Houston FO today trying to talk them into taking Dozier? Altuve on the DL and Correa with no return in sight, and they're in the middle of trying to win the division. Seattle just acquired some pieces too... might not be a bad spot.

I don't see it. They are both believed to be back in early August. Plus, Dozier hasn't played SS since 2012, and for a reason. If Altuve was out for the year, maybe they would consider it. Altuve likely won't be out long, so its almost a definite no.

[diehardtwinsfan]

they shouldn't be pestering anyone. If there's no market for Dozier, then put him on revocable waivers in August and hope he goes on a binge. 

[jtkoupal]

 

Never mind what might happen and who might be traded...we actually got something for Lance Lynn.  I'm still trying to absorb that.

The return for Lynn was surprisingly good considering the season he has had. However, he did just limit the Red Sox to 2 runs over 6 innings at Fenway Park. He held them to just one UNEARNED! run over 5 innings at Target Field in June, also. He has a good track record and has pitched in playoff games, so his value was higher than we perceived it to be.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Twins deadline (remaining) to-do list:

 

Keep: 

-Kyle Gibson

-Anyone under team control past 2019 (that means Trevor Hildenberger, too)

 

Trade:

-Fernando Rodney

-Jake Odorizzi (if possible)

-Brian Dozier (if possible)

-Ervin Santana (if possible)

 

DFA:

-Matt Belisle

-Logan Morrison

 

Recall:

-Tyler Austin

-Fernando Romero and/or Stephen Gonsalves

-Alan Busenitz

-John Curtiss OR Tyler Duffy OR Trevor May OR Lewis Thorpe

I think trading Odorizzi is a big mistake. A cost-controlled acceptable back-end starter has value on a team with pitching concerns.

 

And we've all seen what happens when a team opens the season with six starters capable even meager MLB performance. By the end of May, we're watching Sam Deduno pitch every fifth day.

 

I'm actually more down with trading Gibson than I am Odorizzi, if only because the return on Gibson should be significant.

 

And I don't even want to trade Gibson, I'm just open to it if the offer is good enough.

[jtkoupal]

 

they shouldn't be pestering anyone. If there's no market for Dozier, then put him on revocable waivers in August and hope he goes on a binge. 

That's a pretty sure bet to happen. Almost everyone gets put through waivers, whether they are aware of it or not, in August. He may or may not go on a binge, but if he doesn't go today, an August deal seems likely. The downside, however, is that the return will probably be even lower (Think about the Morneau trade in 2013. We got a 4th outfielder and a long-shot pitcher)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I take what I can get for Dozier and move on at this point. I'm more interested in getting a look at players coming through the system in preparation for 2019 than I am waiting on Dozier to get hot and maybe get a slightly (oh so slightly) better package for him in trade.

[BoofBonser]

 

I don't think Dozier gets moved until August and at that point the Twins will basically give him away.

Rodney I don't think gets moved at all. There's 75 other RH relievers that are on the market and he hasn't been particularly good lately.

Agree with the Rodney opinion, but I don't think the Twins will give Brian away with Nick Gordon struggling so badly at AAA. My guess is that if this team fell out of contention, the FO was going to trade Dozier with the expectation that Nick was ready, and he's just not. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agree with the Rodney opinion, but I don't think the Twins will give Brian away with Nick Gordon struggling so badly at AAA. My guess is that if this team fell out of contention, the FO was going to trade Dozier with the expectation that Nick was ready, and he's just not. 

I'd rather see Adrianza than Dozier, to be perfectly honest about it. Not because I think Ehire is a better player but because I'd rather get a good look at whether he can become the 2019 Escobar. 

 

And if Gordon works himself into a September call-up, even better.

[Jham]

The trade market for Dozier is probably a pretty decent indicator of what his free agent value will be: disappointing.

 

Compare to Logan Morrison with a pedestrian track record coming off a great season to Dozier with a great track record coming off a pedestrian season. He may sign a cheap free agent deal or a one year prove it.

 

The Yankees, with Judge's wrist being an uncertainty, would seem a perfect spot for a cheap rh DH with pull power and a short porch. The twins also have shown the willingness to eat contacts for the Yankees. That he wasn't included in the Lynn deal maybe says a lot.

[Blake]

In looking at how the FO put things together this year, and you metrics guys can pick apart my observation, it appears to me the FO built the team with the idea of improving the team enough to contend in the Central, but, if the team didn't contend, they had some decent signings the FO thought they might be able to move at the trade deadline.

 

For what it's worth.

 

 

 

[jtkoupal]

 

I think trading Odorizzi is a big mistake. A cost-controlled acceptable back-end starter has value on a team with pitching concerns.

 

And we've all seen what happens when a team opens the season with six starters capable even meager MLB performance. By the end of May, we're watching Sam Deduno pitch every fifth day.

 

I'm actually more down with trading Gibson than I am Odorizzi, if only because the return on Gibson should be significant.

 

And I don't even want to trade Gibson, I'm just open to it if the offer is good enough.

As I have said, Jake Odorizzi should not be a starter. He should come after "The Opener." He fits that mold more than any other starter on this team. He only averages 5 IP per start and allows an OPS of 1.322 the third time through the order, and the lowest OPS allowed, as expected, is against the 7-9 hitters. Ideally, you would like him to avoid the 3-4 hitters (1.103 OPS & .988 OPS, respectively), he has the most trouble with them. His numbers against the 1-2 hitters (.739 OPS) are fine. He does have an anomalous .999 OPS allowed to #8 hitters, but I see that as just that, anomalous. I would take my chances with him against a #8 hitter than a #3 hitter the third time around.

 

He also is only effective for 75 pitches. Unfortunately, he usually hits 75 pitches pretty early because of how much he labors. Once he hits the 75 pitch mark, he allows an OPS of 1.107 until he hits 100 pitches, after which point he allows a 1.250 OPS.

 

The most frustrating thing about Odorizzi is that he seems to pitch to the score. He can battle through 5 innings of a close game, but give him a big lead, and he gives runs back. The numbers show that:

*0-2 runs of support: .738 OPS allowed, 3.90 ERA, 2.84 K/BB

*3-5 runs of support: .768 OPS allowed, 3.43 ERA, 2.93 K/BB

* 6+ runs of support: .925 OPS allowed!, 7.20 ERA!, 1.64 K/BB!

 

I like Jake Odorizzi, but it's hard to argue, with these numbers, that starting him in the 1st inning is, contrary to normal baseball thinking, a mistake. He is an excellent pitcher when used properly. He may just be a guy that can't be used in a traditional fashion.