Buxton vs Hicks (the early years)

[Dan Engebretson]

In quite a few threads there are lamentations about Buxton's poor performance.  Folks frequently had similar lamentations about Aaron Hicks during his tenure with the Twins.  I decided to pull some numbers on each of the players (note, this is not nearly as sophisticated an analysis as many of the regulars on TD accomplish):

 

Buxton

Year PA wRC+ OPS
2015 138 53 576
2016 331 86 714
2017 511 90 728
  980 Plate Appearances As a Twin
   
Hicks

Year PA wRC+ OPS

2013 313 62 597
2014 225 83 615
2015 390 96 721
  928 Plate Appearances As a Twin
2016 361 64 617
2017 361 127 847

 

For each player, their number of plate appearances are similar for their first three "full" years as a Twin and showed general year-over-year improvement.  Hicks's fourth year (with Yankees) was a significant regression from his third year (though not nearly as bad as Buxton's 2018 has been; couldn't even force myself to type those  horrific numbers!), but Hicks' fifth year (except for shortened by injury) was great (offensively) and his sixth year (2018 and not in the information above) is even better.

 

At the time Hicks was traded many were not unhappy to see him go (let's not let hindsight and the John Ryan Murphy fiasco cloud our memories of the past).

 

My take home message with this post is that while Buxton has certainly been terrible this year there is precedent for players requiring more than the magical 1000 PAs to achieve success as a Major Leaguer.  Allow yourself to imagine Buxton following a similar offensive trajectory as Hicks, a wRC+ of 127 with Buxton's defensive capability?  That's good stuff right there.

[Dantes929]

I never though Hicks should have been allowed to switch hit.    Since it was allowed I thought his value would be as a platoon against lefties, late inning defense, pinch hitter type.   He has proven me wrong about his ability to hit righties.    I never wanted him traded especially for so little because I though the platoon, 4th outfielder type had tremendous value and still believe it especially since the right side is his strong side.     If Buxton can just stay healthy and find a groove I think he will leave Hicks in the dust.  Big if but I still have faith.   Even as bad as he has been I look forward to seeing Buxton way more than Hicks.  Buxton getting on base is the most exciting thing in baseball.

[yarnivek1972]

I looked at this too awhile back. OPS and wRC aren’t the only ways to measure development. A key component your analysis lacks is BB and K rates. Hicks was FAR better than Buxton in his years as a Twin.

[ewen21]

The big difference between Hicks and Buxton is the fact that HIcks was never touted to be some five tool superstar type.  He was never ranked the #1 prospect in baseball and was never considered to be a cornerstone player.  Hicks was more of a project.  I remember reading about him after the draft and he wasn't even sure if he was a pitcher or an outfielder.  His dad was bitter toward professional baseball and he was made out to be a guy who could be on the PGA someday.

 

Buxton is an entirely different story.  The praise for Buxton was oozing through the monitor anytime I read anything about the guy.  He was looked at as a generational talent.  To compare him to HIcks ignores so much of the context that it is indeed pointless.

 

 

[alarp33]

The big difference between Hicks and Buxton is the fact that HIcks was never touted to be some five tool superstar type. He was never ranked the #1 prospect in baseball and was never considered to be a cornerstone player. Hicks was more of a project. I remember reading about him after the draft and he wasn't even sure if he was a pitcher or an outfielder. His dad was bitter toward professional baseball and he was made out to be a guy who could be on the PGA someday.

 

Buxton is an entirely different story. The praise for Buxton was oozing through the monitor anytime I read anything about the guy. He was looked at as a generational talent. To compare him to HIcks ignores so much of the context that it is indeed pointless.

Hicks was a top 25 prospect in baseball. Also I don’t think I ever once saw someone say Buxton was a “generational talent”

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Hicks was a top 25 prospect in baseball. Also I don’t think I ever once saw someone say Buxton was a “generational talent”

 

To be fair, he was comped to Trout a lot.  I think that counts as generational, even if the words weren't used (and if I used the search function, I would not be shocked if that term was used with him)...

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hicks was a top 25 prospect in baseball. Also I don’t think I ever once saw someone say Buxton was a “generational talent”

 

we're going to nitpick on that? he was the number 1 prospect in the game.....and isn't anything yet. Maybe he will be, but his record looks pretty bad compared to other recent top prospects that have made the majors over the last few years.

[adorduan]

 

In quite a few threads there are lamentations about Buxton's poor performance.  Folks frequently had similar lamentations about Aaron Hicks during his tenure with the Twins.  I decided to pull some numbers on each of the players (note, this is not nearly as sophisticated an analysis as many of the regulars on TD accomplish):

 

Buxton

Year PA wRC+ OPS
2015 138 53 576
2016 331 86 714
2017 511 90 728
  980 Plate Appearances As a Twin
   
Hicks

Year PA wRC+ OPS

2013 313 62 597
2014 225 83 615
2015 390 96 721
  928 Plate Appearances As a Twin
2016 361 64 617
2017 361 127 847

 

For each player, their number of plate appearances are similar for their first three "full" years as a Twin and showed general year-over-year improvement.  Hicks's fourth year (with Yankees) was a significant regression from his third year (though not nearly as bad as Buxton's 2018 has been; couldn't even force myself to type those  horrific numbers!), but Hicks' fifth year (except for shortened by injury) was great (offensively) and his sixth year (2018 and not in the information above) is even better.

 

At the time Hicks was traded many were not unhappy to see him go (let's not let hindsight and the John Ryan Murphy fiasco cloud our memories of the past).

 

My take home message with this post is that while Buxton has certainly been terrible this year there is precedent for players requiring more than the magical 1000 PAs to achieve success as a Major Leaguer.  Allow yourself to imagine Buxton following a similar offensive trajectory as Hicks, a wRC+ of 127 with Buxton's defensive capability?  That's good stuff right there.

So, we maybe get 1 or 2 good years out of him before he hits free agency?  great......

[jun]

It all started with the Wilson Ramos' trade. If Ramos wasn't traded, the Twins didn't have to trade Hicks for a catcher. Hicks and Ramos would look great in this lineup.

[alarp33]

we're going to nitpick on that? he was the number 1 prospect in the game.....and isn't anything yet. Maybe he will be, but his record looks pretty bad compared to other recent top prospects that have made the majors over the last few years.

I mean it really wasn’t nitpicking, the post called Hicks a project, he was a very highly rated prospect. Generational talent is absurd hyperbole. Yes Buxton was the #1 prospect in baseball, yes he has yet to live up to expectations. There’s no need to add untrue fluff onto that statement.

 

Buxton was from rural GA with no hs competition while Hicks grew up playing in elite leagues in CA. If either one of them was a “project” coming into pro ball it was Buxton

[Rosterman]

You expect a TOP PROSPECT to be a guy that will make you WANT to keep him longer term, at least buy out arbitration years, hopefully to the advantage of the player. In the game of baseball, you often lose as the hometeam if you wait out the player development, partly because of the head on the shoulders vs. natural ability.

 

Is Hicks tearing up New York? Will they longterm the guy? Is he the next Ben Revere?

 

Buxton ahs to worry that he will be pushed behind others. right now, he might be behind Jake Cave, and possibly on an even par with Zack Granite, who might be dropping himself off the Twins radar as even a fourth outfielder possibility. Who is coming up? Wade? Krilloff? Cincino? Kerrigan? The #1 pick from this season? Could ANY of these guys make a Buxton passe in a season?

 

So, Buxton will still get a shot in 2019. He ahs to shine BIGTIME and even then, he might be a tradechip with a better return now than a gamble on consistency beyond that season.

[jorgenswest]

They weren’t patient enough with Hicks. They weren’t patient enough with Murphy who could be giving them solid defense at catcher.

 

They need to have patience with Buxton. I would keep him down all year and then start him the next two years. I wouldn’t give up on his talent until 2000 plate appearances and approaching age 27.

[ewen21]

 

Hicks was a top 25 prospect in baseball. Also I don’t think I ever once saw someone say Buxton was a “generational talent”

Just because you didn't see that doesn't mean it didn't happen

If you follow this team and want to be honest about it I can't see how you can't make the distincition between how much Buxton was praised, touted and hyped as compared to Hicks.  Another difference between the two is that Hicks hasn't been injury riddled and his game isn't predicated on speed.  Another very big difference is that Hicks got into a different organization and for all we know THAT is the main reason why he has blossomed.  Buxton (and Sano), to me, is/are an indictment of how poor this organization is at player development.

 

Obviously the purpose of this thread is persuade people to stay hopeful and not be too critical of the guy.  I get that, but just because other players have started off poorly and recovered doesn't mean this player will.  Raher than make comparisons to other players (been done a lot with this player) how about we simply observe and comment on what we see instead?  Right now he is barely hitting .200 in AAA after over 50 at bats and he is striking out about 40% of the time.  This is the reality and we have no crystal ball so.....what are we really talking about?

[alarp33]

 

Just because you didn't see that doesn't mean it didn't happen

If you follow this team and want to be honest about it I can't see how you can't make the distincition between how much Buxton was praised, touted and hyped as compared to Hicks.  Another difference between the two is that Hicks hasn't been injury riddled and his game isn't predicated on speed.  Another very big difference is that Hicks got into a different organization and for all we know THAT is the main reason why he has blossomed.  Buxton (and Sano), to me, is/are an indictment of how poor this organization is at player development.

 

Obviously the purpose of this thread is persuade people to stay hopeful and not be too critical of the guy.  I get that, but just because other players have started off poorly and recovered doesn't mean this player will.  Raher than make comparisons to other players (been done a lot with this player) how about we simply observe and comment on what we see instead?  Right now he is barely hitting .200 in AAA after over 50 at bats and he is striking out about 40% of the time.  This is the reality and we have no crystal ball so.....what are we really talking about?

 

If you think the 50 at bats in AAA are more indicative of his future than the June 1 - September 29 numbers of last year in the majors (.275/.326/.472) than I don't know what to tell you, but we'll have to agree to disagree

[ewen21]

 

They weren’t patient enough with Hicks. They weren’t patient enough with Murphy who could be giving them solid defense at catcher.

They need to have patience with Buxton. I would keep him down all year and then start him the next two years. I wouldn’t give up on his talent until 2000 plate appearances and approaching age 27.

 

They were patient enough with Hicks.  He was traded for a catcher who could be helping us greatly right now.  The problem lies more in the way the Twins develop players.  Hicks was horrible here and he probably was not going to be the player he is now with the Yankees here.  He was also expendable because a lot of people assumed Buxton would a our perennial all in CF for the next 12 to 15 years.  We needed a catcher and John Ryan Murphy was not a bad choice.  He actually had a decent track record in NY, but he came here and failed miserably.  That is on him, but how can we not wonder what the deal is when suddenly he is now the player he was on track to be when he was a Yankee.

 

Another thing.....

Why is this 1,000 or 2,000 at bat benchmark thing so important?  We cannot judge or make reasonable comments on a player with 500 or 600 at bats?  I think it is fine to do that and I think that Buxton right now is scary.  How can he be THIS bad?

[ewen21]

 

If you think the 50 at bats in AAA are more indicative of his future than the June 1 - September 29 numbers of last year in the majors (.275/.326/.472) than I don't know what to tell you, but we'll have to agree to disagree

 

I think if you are going to interpret what I have said in your own words you really need to be more accurate.  I think the first half of this season is as indicative of what he can do as anything else, including last season's second half.  What you did was nothing more than an attempt to marginalize what I said and you used a cheap tactic that is all to prevalent of message boards, that is...if you do not like a person's take simply restate or rephrase, intentionally misinterpret, make up a silly claim the other person never made, then pawn it off on them as if that is their opinion.  A load of BS.  I never said that and my post doesn't in any way suggest a 50 at bat sample is more important than the second half of an entire season. 

 

Then again, let me ask you something....

Are you trying to tell me what he has done since this season began needs to be completely discounted in favor of what he did in the second half of last year?  If so then you have a bias that isn't allowing you to see the whole picture. Is not what has happened this season (almost 3 1/2 months) indicative of an alarming trend?

 

I am looking at the whole picture.  

[alarp33]

 

I think if you are going to interpret what I have said in your own words you really need to be more accurate.  I think the first half of this season is as indicative of what he can do as anything else, including last season's second half.  What you did was nothing more than an attempt to marginalize what I said and you used a cheap tactic that is all to prevalent of message boards, that is...if you do not like a person's take simply restate or rephrase, intentionally misinterpret, make up a silly claim the other person never made, then pawn it off on them as if that is their opinion.  A load of BS.  I never said that and my post doesn't in any way suggest a 50 at bat sample is more important than the second half of an entire season. 

 

Then again, let me ask you something....

Are you trying to tell me what he has done since this season began needs to be completely discounted in favor of what he did in the second half of last year?  If so then you have a bias that isn't allowing you to see the whole picture. Is not what has happened this season (almost 3 1/2 months) indicative of an alarming trend?

 

I am looking at the whole picture.  

 

You literally wrote; 

 

Raher than make comparisons to other players (been done a lot with this player) how about we simply observe and comment on what we see instead?Right now he is barely hitting .200 in AAA after over 50 at bats and he is striking out about 40% of the time.This is the reality and we have no crystal ball so.....what are we really talking about?

 

Yes I interpreted that as meaning his AAA at bats this year is his reality, because you wrote that. 

 

Are you trying to tell me what he has done since this season began needs to be completely discounted in favor of what he did in the second half of last year?

 

I mean pretty much yes on discounting this season.  He had around 45 at bats, got migraines, broke his toe, foolishly was rushed back, and has been "healthy" for 2 weeks.  It's been a total loss of a season and I'm reading basically nothing into this.  I'd like to see him continue to build on his last 4 months of last year when he knocks the rust off and gets back up here

[NapoleonComplex]

 

The big difference between Hicks and Buxton is the fact that HIcks was never touted to be some five tool superstar type.  He was never ranked the #1 prospect in baseball and was never considered to be a cornerstone player.  Hicks was more of a project.  I remember reading about him after the draft and he wasn't even sure if he was a pitcher or an outfielder.  His dad was bitter toward professional baseball and he was made out to be a guy who could be on the PGA someday.

 

Buxton is an entirely different story.  The praise for Buxton was oozing through the monitor anytime I read anything about the guy.  He was looked at as a generational talent.  To compare him to HIcks ignores so much of the context that it is indeed pointless.

 

I'd argue that could be part of Buxton's struggles. Baseball is very much a mental game. Imagine trying to live up to that level of hype and expectations. No thank you. 

[jorgenswest]

They were patient enough with Hicks.  He was traded for a catcher who could be helping us greatly right now.  The problem lies more in the way the Twins develop players.  Hicks was horrible here and he probably was not going to be the player he is now with the Yankees here.  He was also expendable because a lot of people assumed Buxton would a our perennial all in CF for the next 12 to 15 years.  We needed a catcher and John Ryan Murphy was not a bad choice.  He actually had a decent track record in NY, but he came here and failed miserably.  That is on him, but how can we not wonder what the deal is when suddenly he is now the player he was on track to be when he was a Yankee.

 

Another thing.....

Why is this 1,000 or 2,000 at bat benchmark thing so important?  We cannot judge or make reasonable comments on a player with 500 or 600 at bats?  I think it is fine to do that and I think that Buxton right now is scary.  How can he be THIS bad?

After 1000 plate appearances early last year Aaron Gleeman spoke about how Rosario had the poorest OBP in the history of baseball for left fielders with at least 1000 plate appearances. Scary.

 

It is important in combination with patience approaching age 27. If an organization believes in a player’s skills they have to be patient. Hitting major league pitching is incredibly hard.

 

Hicks or Murphy would really help this team. They didn’t have enough patience and judge far too early. The key for both is they would contribute defensively while their bats develop. The Twins could have afforded to be patient.

[ewen21]

 

You literally wrote; 

 

Raher than make comparisons to other players (been done a lot with this player) how about we simply observe and comment on what we see instead?Right now he is barely hitting .200 in AAA after over 50 at bats and he is striking out about 40% of the time.This is the reality and we have no crystal ball so.....what are we really talking about?

 

Yes I interpreted that as meaning his AAA at bats this year is his reality, because you wrote that. 

 

Are you trying to tell me what he has done since this season began needs to be completely discounted in favor of what he did in the second half of last year?

 

I mean pretty much yes on discounting this season.  He had around 45 at bats, got migraines, broke his toe, foolishly was rushed back, and has been "healthy" for 2 weeks.  It's been a total loss of a season and I'm reading basically nothing into this.  I'd like to see him continue to build on his last 4 months of last year when he knocks the rust off and gets back up here

We discount the collisions, the migraines, the time off the field and the horrible composite hitting when healthy?  Sorry, no.  His ability to stay on the field is part of the equation as well and if he continues on this path where is he going to end up?  If he gets injuries next year do we again "discount" and entire season?  I am not hearing the "if only he was healthy" garbage.

 

YOu just want to talk about the good things.  The second half of last year was a glimpse of what he COULD BE, but is that what he WILL BE?  This year is another glimpse of what he could be, as ugly as it may be, it is REALITY.  

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Twins Daily is the Land of 10,000 Lamentations.  Like the lakes some of them are quite large, some of them, pretty small.

[ewen21]

And what I "literally wrote" was completely misinterpreted by you.

[ewen21]

 

Twins Daily is the Land of 10,000 Lamentations.  Like the lakes some of them are quite large, some of them, pretty small.

 

Lamenting?  No, I don't think so.

 

Life goes on for me if Buxton doesn't pan out.  The kid needs to tighten up his game in many areas, most specifically the mental part of the game

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think if you are going to interpret what I have said in your own words you really need to be more accurate.  I think the first half of this season is as indicative of what he can do as anything else, including last season's second half.  What you did was nothing more than an attempt to marginalize what I said and you used a cheap tactic that is all to prevalent of message boards, that is...if you do not like a person's take simply restate or rephrase, intentionally misinterpret, make up a silly claim the other person never made, then pawn it off on them as if that is their opinion.  A load of BS.  I never said that and my post doesn't in any way suggest a 50 at bat sample is more important than the second half of an entire season. 

 

Then again, let me ask you something....

Are you trying to tell me what he has done since this season began needs to be completely discounted in favor of what he did in the second half of last year?  If so then you have a bias that isn't allowing you to see the whole picture. Is not what has happened this season (almost 3 1/2 months) indicative of an alarming trend?

 

I am looking at the whole picture.

 

Not completely discounted, but largely discounted, yes. Because he broke his toe. An injury like that would seem to be a reasonable explanation for the bad swing we saw.

[ewen21]

 

Not completely discounted, but largely discounted, yes. Because he broke his toe. An injury like that would seem to be a reasonable explanation for the bad swing we saw.

His propensity for injuries, his penchant for crashing into walls and history of migraine headaches are there and a factor on what he's going to accomplish as a major leaguer whether anyone wants to discount it or not.

 

I don't discount entire seasons because IT HAPPENED.  Whether it is any fault of his or not.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

...I don't discount entire seasons because IT HAPPENED.

Would you take Buxton's 2017 hitting output in 2019?

[Mr. Brooks]

They were patient enough with Hicks. He was traded for a catcher who could be helping us greatly right now. The problem lies more in the way the Twins develop players. Hicks was horrible here and he probably was not going to be the player he is now with the Yankees here. He was also expendable because a lot of people assumed Buxton would a our perennial all in CF for the next 12 to 15 years. We needed a catcher and John Ryan Murphy was not a bad choice. He actually had a decent track record in NY, but he came here and failed miserably. That is on him, but how can we not wonder what the deal is when suddenly he is now the player he was on track to be when he was a Yankee.

 

Another thing.....

Why is this 1,000 or 2,000 at bat benchmark thing so important? We cannot judge or make reasonable comments on a player with 500 or 600 at bats? I think it is fine to do that and I think that Buxton right now is scary. How can he be THIS bad?

If we are to assume that Hicks doesn't become good if he stays here, why are we assuming that Murphy becomes good if he stays here, where he also was terrible?

[Riverbrian]

I’m leaving Buxton in AAA for the rest of the year. I’m assigning someone to the job of whispering in his ear daily “quit swinging for the fences””... level out your swing and put the ball in play”.

 

Should we trade him and move on? How bout we just simply stop expecting him to be Mickey Mantle. How bout we just simply stop expecting him to carry the weight of all our hopes and dreams. How bout we simply keep Buxton. Think of him like we think of Cave and then be over joyed if he turns into Buxton we hoped for. That way if he develops... bonus. And If he doesn’t... he doesn’t take the entire organization down with him.

[Riverbrian]

We could seriously consider changing our team name from “Twins” to the “Young Struggling Centerfielders who will play better for another team later”.

 

We need to get out of this pattern of rushing up a CF. Absorbing the bad Getting frustrated and then trading them and letting others enjoy the good. Gomez and Hicks alone are enough for a few decades. Don’t add Buxton to the list.

[ewen21]

 

If we are to assume that Hicks doesn't become good if he stays here, why are we assuming that Murphy becomes good if he stays here, where he also was terrible?

Where are you getting this?  I was expounding on what could be the reason why was Murphy was good in NY, awful here and now good again.  THat is more an indictment of the Twins ability to develop (I've stated this explicity) players than anything.  Murphy and Hicks got away from here and have flourished.

 

Any idea why that is?  I am sure wondering how this happens