Kepler

[jorgenswest]

I really tried to avoid partial season slash stats but it is hard not to notice Kepler’s this year.

 

I took a look at the measures that have a large enough sample. His strike out rate of 16% is significantly lower than his career rate. His walk rate of 11% is significantly greater than his career rate. His ISO is below his career rate but reasonably close.

 

His slash stats are so hard to ignore. I know they need a much larger sample. Is it simply the bad luck of a .240 BABIP? Maybe. It seems like he has made real improvement in strike zone recognition. I hope that improvement starts getting rewarded in the numbers. I don’t think it is time to overhaul his swing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Peripherals are good, he's just not making good contact?

It likely doesn'thelp that he's exposed with no protection. He's shown enough that I think most of us think he will be good. 

[Doctor Wu]

You make some good points. Indeed, it's nice to see some positives at least in his strike zone recognition. I haven't watched Kepler enough this year to have a valid opinion about what his problem is. But the results have obviously been very disappointing thus far.

[yarnivek1972]

That the coaching staff doesn’t seem to have an explanation- evidenced by the lack of an attempted correction- is most concerning IMO.

[FlauerPauer]

 

That the coaching staff doesn’t seem to have an explanation- evidenced by the lack of an attempted correction- is most concerning IMO.

 

I wonder if it's because the coaches aren't very good...

[Bill]

He has always had a low babip.  Just not as low as this year.  He hits so many weak fly balls to left and to center.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is it simply the bad luck of a .240 BABIP? Maybe.

Kepler's career MLB BABIP is only .262. The last 2 seasons are .261 and .276. I think he might just be a lower BABIP type hitter, at least in his current form.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He has always had a low babip. Just not as low as this year. He hits so many weak fly balls to left and to center.

Great minds think alike!

 

Also our minds!

[Twodogs]

Someone mentioned earlier, I don't think it helps that everyone around him is hitting like crud. Maybe getting Polanco back will spark something in this lineup, I mean Buxton, Sano and Morrison have been up there whiffing away all year. I know everyone can't get hot at the same time, but geez, it would have been nice to at least see Buxton, Sano, and Morrison to have at least a few weeks of hot hitting. Dozier is doing poorly, but he has had a couple of weeks here and there where he produced, if everyone had a few of those weeks, Kepler included I think everyone would be doing better overall? I know Rosario hasn't really needed that protection but he is a free swinger so he's going to get hot and cold all by himself. I think Kepler needs a little bit of that protection. Also weird how Kepler seems to be doing better against leftys rather than righties?

[Bill]

Just checked on fangraphs.  47.6% of his batted balls are flyballs.  That is 4th highest among 162 qualified batters.  That would be OK, except his flyballs don't usually go over the fence. 

 

I wonder if he is intentionally trying to hit the ball in the air more...  If you see him in the on deck circle, he frequently practices a downward swing starting from high hands, which you might think would have the opposite effect (although I know there are different theories on this).

[Riverbrian]

I have no idea... I haven't been tracking his BABIP or checking his hot zones.

 

Just watching him game in and game out. Hard Contact... he doesn't make a ton of it. The balls that it does seem to connect with seem to be exclusively low in the zone. I don't see him get much out of balls up in the zone. If he is a low ball hitter... He's gonna get less of them and BABIP and all the counting stats marginalized until he can make the adjustment. 

 

Somebody could check this stuff out and it might be the opposite but it is the impression that I get from watching. 

 

I'm a big believer in Kepler but he just might not be ready yet and his performance gets added to the pile of players causing our downfall. 

[Vanimal46]

We had an idea that development was broken during the total system failure year, but my God. The ineptitude towards development is staggering.

 

Every team is getting younger. And their young players are producing. Not here in Minnesota! We can't count on players who have nearly 3 full years of MLB experience to figure it out.

[gunnarthor]

Agree with most of these posts. It's a bit baffling stat-wise but watching him, he doesn't seem to get robbed a lot. He just makes easy, routine outs.

 

I'm not sure there's a lot to do - a large turnover of the coaching staff is ok with me - but let him play and get at-bats. Hopefully he improves but you'd think at 25 and with over 1300 ML PA, he'd be better than this.

[alarp33]

 

I have no idea... I haven't been tracking his BABIP or checking his hot zones.

 

Just watching him game in and game out. Hard Contact... he doesn't make a ton of it. The balls that it does seem to connect with seem to be exclusively low in the zone. I don't see him get much out of balls up in the zone. If he is a low ball hitter... He's gonna get less of them and BABIP and all the counting stats marginalized until he can make the adjustment. 

 

Somebody could check this stuff out and it might be the opposite but it is the impression that I get from watching. 

 

 

According to Fangraphs his soft/medium/hard hit % = 16.7%/45.5%/37.8%

 

Compare that to the Major League averages  = 18.1%/46.4%/35.6%

 

His fly ball % is much higher than the league avg.  LD and GB % are lower than league average.  

 

7.2% of his fly balls are leaving the ball park. League Avg is 12.6%.  His career avg is 11.5%

 

For what its worth, the fly balls aren't pop-ups either. His IF Fly ball % is almost identical to the league avg, and in line with his career numbers. 

 

Seems like bad luck to me

[jorgenswest]

That the coaching staff doesn’t seem to have an explanation- evidenced by the lack of an attempted correction- is most concerning IMO.

What would they correct? His strikeout and walk rates have improved considerably. If his BABIP is .270 the slash stats look OK.

[yarnivek1972]

According to Fangraphs his soft/medium/hard hit % = 16.7%/45.5%/37.8%

 

Compare that to the Major League averages = 18.1%/46.4%/35.6%

 

His fly ball % is much higher than the league avg. LD and GB % are lower than league average.

 

7.2% of his fly balls are leaving the ball park. League Avg is 12.6%. His career avg is 11.5%

 

For what its worth, the fly balls aren't pop-ups either. His IF Fly ball % is almost identical to the league avg, and in line with his career numbers.

 

Seems like bad luck to me

200-300 PA with a sub .270 BABIP could be bad luck. 1300 PA with a sub .270 BABIP is not bad luck. It simply is what it is. I think there is a correction or an adjustment that can be made. What that is I do not know. But, as I said it is more concerning to me that the coaches don’t seem to either.

[yarnivek1972]

I wonder if it's because the coaches aren't very good...

I don’t.

[mickeymental]

 

I wonder if it's because the coaches aren't very good...

why have so many of the baby bombers succeeded? sanchez, judge, torres, andujar, austin, severino and others are all 26 or younger (torres and andujar are 21 and 23) and transforming the damn yankees into one of the top clubs in mlb ...

[alarp33]

 

200-300 PA with a sub .270 BABIP could be bad luck. 1300 PA with a sub .270 BABIP is not bad luck. It simply is what it is. I think there is a correction or an adjustment that can be made. What that is I do not know. But, as I said it is more concerning to me that the coaches don’t seem to either.

 

I didn't bring up his BABIP. 

[Vanimal46]

This is an instance where deep diving into analytics can drive you crazy and think nothing is wrong. He makes easy outs and doesn't hit the ball hard that often. No matter what the FG hard hit percentage is.

 

I believe the eye test.

[jimbo92107]

I predict a second-half surge for Max Kepler. He swings flat, hits line drives. He's going to start finding the sweet spot pretty soon. Some of those liners are going to start finding gaps. 

[gunnarthor]

 

why have so many of the baby bombers succeeded? sanchez, judge, torres, andujar, austin, severino and others are all 26 or younger (torres and andujar are 21 and 23) and transforming the damn yankees into one of the top clubs in mlb ...

______ and a bandbox ball park? Seriously, Judge is hitting .193/.296/.386 on the road this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

______ and a bandbox ball park? Seriously, Judge is hitting .193/.296/.386 on the road this year.

I wouldn't read too much into a single season split, much less a half season split. Judge had a .935 OPS on the road last year. I am sure he is helped at home, but probably not to the extent that his 2018 splits suggest.

[Mike Sixel]

i am really shocked that Kepler isn't better....not a ton better, just like. half a WAR better so far this year.

[gunnarthor]

 

I wouldn't read too much into a single season split, much less a half season split. Judge had a .935 OPS on the road last year. I am sure he is helped at home, but probably not to the extent that his 2018 splits suggest.

Well, yeah. Of course. 

[mickeymental]

 

______ and a bandbox ball park? Seriously, Judge is hitting .193/.296/.386 on the road this year.

good point. (although he was .935 ops on the road last year.)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

According to Fangraphs his soft/medium/hard hit % = 16.7%/45.5%/37.8%

 

Compare that to the Major League averages = 18.1%/46.4%/35.6%

 

His fly ball % is much higher than the league avg. LD and GB % are lower than league average.

 

7.2% of his fly balls are leaving the ball park. League Avg is 12.6%. His career avg is 11.5%

 

For what its worth, the fly balls aren't pop-ups either. His IF Fly ball % is almost identical to the league avg, and in line with his career numbers.

 

Seems like bad luck to me

i was looking at the same stats. Seems like he either hits at an outfielder in the air, or into the shift on the dirt.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

i am really shocked that Kepler isn't better....not a ton better, just like. half a WAR better so far this year.

i know, he’s hitting it hard more frequently, making more consistent contact, and lofting more frequently. It’s the recipe for success!

[alarp33]

Not familiar with this website, but I found this data interesting. 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1axMG2D9IkLo473l3qhkS859v85vbIb20uQ5mfhEi2dc/edit#gid=437748026

 

A glossary of terms; 

 

https://www.xstats.org/glossary/

 

Kepler's "DB%" (dribblers that have low success of being hits) is way down from previous 2 years), his HD% (high drive - best chance to be hits) is way up. His ground ball % is way up according to this data, perhaps leading to lower expected BABIP (and actual babip). 

 

He is better than league average in xOBA+ and OUTs. 

 

I'll stick by my earlier hypothesis that he's had a run of terrible luck this year

[alarp33]

Also for those saying their eyes say he doesn't hit the ball hard. What do your eyes say about Rosario? Because Kepler has a higher avg exit velo than Rosario, and a higher "hard hit (95mph+) %" than Rosario. 

 

Of course 14.7% of the fly balls Rosario hits are leaving the park, while its 7% for Kepler

 

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