Will the Twins ever sign a top free agent or are we all just wasting our time?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

They'll likely never sign a top outside free agent under the current system, unless they get lucky on a price drop. Or they want to seriously damage the team a couple of years later.

This was that price drop. I don't know how it can be claimed otherwise.

[laloesch]

 

Labs are never off topic

 

 

Yeah they are great dogs.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm not sold on the idea we need to sign Sano to a long term contract. I'd wait till the offseason before his last with us.

Berrios and Buxton are far and away the priorities. And they will be nine figure deals.

[jimmer]

 

Berrios and Buxton are far and away the priorities. And they will be nine figure deals.

I'd sign Buxton to an extension right now.  I'd go eight years.

[drjim]

 

Remember at the start of the offseason, the Twins said they were prepared to make Darvish the highest paid Twin. That would be roughly $25 mil average for the length of the contract.

 

I don't think they were ever willing to go 6 years, and definitely weren't willing to do an opt out.

[drjim]

 

This was that price drop. I don't know how it can be claimed otherwise.

 

Depends how you value an opt out, and how much you trust the "consensus". And it wasn't a drop in years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm jumping in to say I definitely agree with you on both of these points.

 

I suspect our disagreements are whether 6/160 is a good contract for the Twins to give out (I don't) and whether their actual offer (as best we can tell) should be considered serious (I do think it should be considered serious).

You yourself used the words "hope" and "longshot" to describe our offer. Not sure how that fits with "serious".

[drjim]

 

You yourself used the words "hope" and "longshot" to describe our offer. Not sure how that fits with "serious".

 

Why not? It was a serious offer, but a long shot that a bigger market wouldn't trump it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Labs are never off topic

 

bump

[tvagle]

 

Problem is where do we reallocate the money (and we should spend it given what is coming off the books at the end of the year).  Santana is unlikely to trigger the automatic extension, so you may assume at least $45 million will not be on the books for 2019.  This was the perfect chance to raise payroll, so where do we go from here.  If we sign one of the FA's I hope it is Cobb, do not like it, but this is the best chance of having the contract work out.  We they need to sign Buxton and Sano to a long term contracts.  If Sano refuses or is not interested, I would make him the feature piece in a trade for Archer. There are ways to do this, let's make it so. 

 

This!

I offer up 3 options in the Darvish Contingency thread somewhere near the end of page 7 this was

 

Option 3:

Twins Get: Archer, Honeywell, Span
Rays Get: Sano, Kepler, Gordon, Littel/Slegers/Lottery Ticket

Sign: (MLBTR projection NUNEZ: 2/$7M AAV MOUSTAKAS:5/$17M AAV)
Nunez 2018 PAYROLL: $130.5M
or
Moustakas 2018 PAYROLL: $140.5M

Both of these appear to be an overpay in current market and would expect both to sign for much less

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why not? It was a serious offer, but a long shot that a bigger market wouldn't trump it.

I mean, it was borderline zero percent chance with the Cubs still in the hunt. Forget trumping it, they were likely to win just by matching. And there were still ~5 teams in the mix with similar offers, right?

 

What would be a non-serious offer in your opinion?

[PseudoSABR]

 

Yes, but their reported late offer does not imply seriousness. With the Cubs interested, were they "seriously" expecting that Darvish would sign in Minnesota for 5/~110?

Sounds like they were only "serious" about signing him if a nonserious condition (his market price falling precipitously) came true.

Well, the Twins made their offer a week ago, and as you suggest it doesn't quite make sense that if the Twins were serious, so I doubt that's the way it went down.  As I suggested earlier, once the Cubs and the Dodgers were able to meet Darvish's general demands, the Twins were likely cut out of the negotiation.   Darvish probably had a bunch of five year deals, and I think its more likely he went to the Cubs and the Dodgers and said give me a sixth year and I'll sign.  The Twins may not have gotten any opportunity to go higher.  

[Vanimal46]

Well, the Twins made their offer a week ago, and as you suggest it doesn't quite make sense that if the Twins were serious, so I doubt that's the way it went down. As I suggested earlier, once the Cubs and the Dodgers were able to meet Darvish's general demands, the Twins were likely cut out of the negotiation. Darvish probably had a bunch of five year deals, and I think its more likely he went to the Cubs and the Dodgers and said give me a sixth year and I'll sign. The Twins may not have gotten any opportunity to go higher.

I'd be curious to know when the Cubs started to get serious. From what I recall a couple of months ago they didn't show interest in him.

 

Even if you're not shopping, a good deal is a good deal. What's a 6th year and potentially $21 million in dead money for them? A drop in the donation bucket, really.

 

The biggest blunder for the Twins is not signing his favorite catcher Gimenez!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Depends how you value an opt out, and how much you trust the "consensus". And it wasn't a drop in years.

I trust the consensus in this case. The broad picture being painted by my side seems accurate enough; that is, a passive offer of 5/110 or so with no frills. I admit we just don't know the specifics yet.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Then why make essentially the same offer as the Brewers, just 3 weeks later?

If Darvish was prejudiced against the Twins to start with, I don't blame them for ultimately not being able to change his mind. I do blame them, however, for not even trying (which the late Brewers match seems to represent).

If you really want a job that other people are probably more qualified for, wouldn't you want to work harder and be more aggressive in your effort? Or do you just recycle your old resume, and show up at the same time as everyone else?

 

 

This, if they had put 5/120 out in December with an opt out, Darvish would be a Twin right now. It's sad b/c they chose to try to be turd that floated to the top instead of going out and getting Darvish. We get upset b/c Darvish clearly didn't want to play here, but I think this works two ways. The Twins weren't exactly clear in getting Darvish here.

 

Oh, and Falvey's dislike for opt outs seems silly... just wanted to vent and say that. If Darvish, a pitcher which by nature of his position presents enormous risk, does so well in surplus value in years 1 and 2 that he can become a FA again, let him. It takes the rest of our risk off the table when he's more likely to get it, and given the talent we have in the high minors, we'd likely have a replacement. That should have never been a sticking point (not sure it was, just venting).

[TheLeviathan]

 

This, if they had put 5/120 out in December with an opt out, Darvish would be a Twin right now. It's sad b/c they chose to try to be turd that floated to the top instead of going out and getting Darvish. We get upset b/c Darvish clearly didn't want to play here, but I think this works two ways. The Twins weren't exactly clear in getting Darvish here.

 

Oh, and Falvey's dislike for opt outs seems silly... just wanted to vent and say that. If Darvish, a pitcher which by nature of his position presents enormous risk, does so well in surplus value in years 1 and 2 that he can become a FA again, let him. It takes the rest of our risk off the table when he's more likely to get it, and given the talent we have in the high minors, we'd likely have a replacement. That should have never been a sticking point (not sure it was, just venting).

 

This just in: FA contracts have elements to them that favor players and may be expensive.

 

Maybe next year, now that we know this vital bit of information!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd be curious to know when the Cubs started to get serious. From what I recall a couple of months ago they didn't show interest in him.

It was widely understood the Cubs needed one more SP after Chatwood, though. And with the Yankees and Dodgers out, the Cubs were pretty much guaranteed a chance to beat any small market offer.

 

More interesting is that even after Chatwood, the Cubs reportedly offered 3/42 to Cobb which he turned down. That could have changed the Darvish picture, and set off some other FA dominoes.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I am not a moderator, but I played a moderator on tv. There is a yellow lab thread on LabradorsDaily.com. Please take your discussion there. . Or, on the other hand, you can stay. It's likely as relevant as the Mauer comparisons.

 

This moderator disagrees

[Otto von Ballpark]

I trust the consensus in this case. The broad picture being painted by my side seems accurate enough; that is, a passive offer of 5/110 or so with no frills. I admit we just don't know the specifics yet.

I think he meant consensus predicted value, the 6/160 prediction from MLBTR, etc.

 

I don't think anyone had him pegged below 6 years and/or $135 mil, though. And he was the consensus top guy and no one else was signing, so it's not like other options were going off the table. I think "longshot" overstates the chance he would ultimately settle for fewer years AND fewer dollars to go to a random, unfamiliar midmarket club.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This!

I offer up 3 options in the Darvish Contingency thread somewhere near the end of page 7 this was

 

Option 3:

Twins Get: Archer, Honeywell, Span
Rays Get: Sano, Kepler, Gordon, Littel/Slegers/Lottery Ticket

Sign: (MLBTR projection NUNEZ: 2/$7M AAV MOUSTAKAS:5/$17M AAV)
Nunez 2018 PAYROLL: $130.5M
or
Moustakas 2018 PAYROLL: $140.5M

Both of these appear to be an overpay in current market and would expect both to sign for much less

 

This place would blow up, and rightfully so, if the Twins traded Sano and Kepler for Archer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This, if they had put 5/120 out in December with an opt out, Darvish would be a Twin right now.

I'm not so sure of that. I think he valued himself pretty close to the consensus of 6 years and/or $135-168 mil. The opt out alone probably isn't enough to get him to pass on that goal to sign earlier in Minnesota, but it would have been a good aggressive first step. Ultimately I think we were going to have to hit those consensus targets, but it was within our sights.

[tvagle]

 

This place would blow up, and rightfully so, if the Twins traded Sano and Kepler for Archer.

One could only imagine based on the reaction to Darvish...if not gonna sign FA then bring in Trader Jack McKeon and fix things that need fixing

[ashbury]

This place would blow up, and rightfully so, if the Twins traded Sano and Kepler for Archer.

It's crazy, perhaps, but rooted in the idea of using "Darvish money," give or take, to improve the team a different way. Use money on Moustakas to get a third baseman who can flat out hit. Take on Span's salary to approximately do what Kepler has done. Now, on top of those substitutions, admittedly probable downgrades, add established starter Archer and highly touted starting prospect Honeywell, who acquitted himself well in AAA at age 22. Is the downgrade on the position-player side more or less than the improvement in the rotation? Still too crazy to even try to tweak as a deal? (I don't know that Gordon or other pieces are needed, BTW. Maybe even the other direction, if the baseball world still values Sano a lot.)

[Mike Sixel]

What does Tampa do for pitching if they trade Archer and Honeywell? Because they aren't trading for MLB hitting, only to have no pitching.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Last week in one of my posts, I suggested that the Twins to offer Darvish 6 years at $125 total. I guess I was a day late and a million dollars short.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Hughes contract isn't even close to tradeable at this point.
Maybe if he shows he's healthy and pitching ok for several months.

Ask yourself if the roles were reversed, under what circumstances would you want the Twins to trade FOR Hughes?

What I've read here on Twins Daily is a scenario where a team is at or near the salary cap and need to clear space.  i.e. a team trades a high end contract for a Hughes-type contract.  It would give the other team space to sign another or 2 players.

 

Anyway, I think that's the way it works      

[Shaitan]

I'll admit to not reading the 20 pages leading up to this, but the biggest part of this question is that it depends on what the player wants, not money. If a player wants to come to MN then they'll sign here (see Addison Reed). If a player wants a coast, there's really no way to compete with that.

 

Of course the money in an offer matters, but odds are that MN will have to overpay to land a top free agent just because this is Minnesota. We don't have beaches and Broadway, we have walleye.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

They offered 5 years, a little north of $100mil.

 

If this is true, then the Twins were unrealistic in their expectations.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'll admit to not reading the 20 pages leading up to this, but the biggest part of this question is that it depends on what the player wants, not money. If a player wants to come to MN then they'll sign here (see Addison Reed). If a player wants a coast, there's really no way to compete with that.

The coast of Lake Michigan?

[Riverbrian]

 

It's crazy, perhaps, but rooted in the idea of using "Darvish money," give or take, to improve the team a different way. Use money on Moustakas to get a third baseman who can flat out hit. Take on Span's salary to approximately do what Kepler has done. Now, on top of those substitutions, admittedly probable downgrades, add established starter Archer and highly touted starting prospect Honeywell, who acquitted himself well in AAA at age 22. Is the downgrade on the position-player side more or less than the improvement in the rotation? Still too crazy to even try to tweak as a deal? (I don't know that Gordon or other pieces are needed, BTW. Maybe even the other direction, if the baseball world still values Sano a lot.)

 

Ladies and Gentlemen... PLAN B.