Twins Give Darvish a Formal Offer

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think they are better with Santana's injury. We were really lucky last years with injuries (minus Sano) and had a few players play over their heads. Asking for that two years in a row is asking a lot.

But if we do, the offensive is the same maybe a little bit better, starters are worse, and the bullpen is about the same which wasn't great.

How is the bullpen about the same? They've added Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think they are better with Santana's injury. We were really lucky last years with injuries (minus Sano) and had a few players play over their heads. Asking for that two years in a row is asking a lot.

But if we do, the offensive is the same maybe a little bit better, starters are worse, and the bullpen is about the same which wasn't great.

I think the truth is somewhere between you two. The Twins won 85 games but overperformed BaseRuns and pythag to do it (+4 BR, +1 pythag). They were probably an 82-83 team on talent.

 

And while some position players might step back, I suspect more will step forward for a full season. Both Buxton and Polanco ended the season with pedestrian numbers; it's likely both do better. It's likely Rosario slides a bit. It's likely Dozier slides a bit. Maybe Mauer. But Sano may step forward, or at least play a pretty good 130+ game season.

 

The bullpen is waaay better.

 

I think the rotation is a wash right now. Santana will likely regress. Berrios will get a full season, somewhat offsetting Ervin. It's unlikely guys like Colon will get as many starts. Gibson will likely be better. There's no Santiago, who was absolutely atrocious after the injury.

 

And if some of those guys falter, the Twins have actual upside guys in the high minors to back them up. I doubt any of those players will light the world on fire but I think at least one of them will be respectable.

[jud6312]

There's some interesting comments in here about what a Darvish "consolation prize" in the form of Odo might look like.

 

Not sure which one I like better: 

 

• Odo and Span for Kepler and Gordon
• Odo for Javier, Enlow and Baddoo

 

Granted, these are Tampa rubes speculating like many of us do, but personally I'd laugh at either of those offers coming back. I'm not sure I'd make any of those five - along with Lewis, Graterol, Rooker, Romero and Gonsalves - available for Odo.

 

https://www.draysbay.com/2018/2/8/16992762/mlb-trade-rumors-tampa-bay-rays-jake-odorizzi

[Mr. Brooks]

I think the truth is somewhere between you two. The Twins won 85 games but overperformed BaseRuns and pythag to do it (+4 BR, +1 pythag). They were probably an 82-83 team on talent.

 

And while some position players might step back, I suspect more will step forward for a full season. Both Buxton and Polanco ended the season with pedestrian numbers; it's likely both do better. It's likely Rosario slides a bit. It's likely Dozier slides a bit. Maybe Mauer. But Sano may step forward, or at least play a pretty good 130+ game season.

 

The bullpen is waaay better.

 

I think the rotation is a wash right now. Santana will likely regress. Berrios will get a full season, somewhat offsetting Ervin. It's unlikely guys like Colon will get as many starts. Gibson will likely be better. There's no Santiago, who was absolutely atrocious after the injury.

 

And if some of those guys falter, the Twins have actual upside guys in the high minors to back them up. I doubt any of those players will light the world on fire but I think at least one of them will be respectable.

Gibson's ERA+ was within 1% of his career ERA+. Why is it "likely" that he'll be better this year?

[Mr. Brooks]

Not sure I'd pick up Odorizzi off the waiver wire, let alone trade for him.

[jud6312]

 

Not sure I'd pick up Odorizzi off the waiver wire, let alone trade for him.

The prospect give for him. Looking at last year's MLB Top-30, the only one from the Top-15 I'd consider would be Jorge. Maybe Jay. There's even 3 or 4 in the bottom half of that 30 I wouldn't consider. 

 

So a Top-5 guy and a somewhat proven guy like Kepler for a middle of the road pitcher and an awful veteran contract is laughable.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Gibson's ERA+ was within 1% of his career ERA+. Why is it "likely" that he'll be better this year?

A change of approach coupled with actual performance improvement over a moderate stretch of time.

 

I didn't say he'd be way better, only that he'd be better. I'm quite skeptical about Gibson but I think he'll have a sub-5.00 ERA this season. Don't confuse "better" with "good".

[Brock Beauchamp]

Whoa, Gibson was decent for longer than I thought he was. Outside his absolutely terrible first two months, he posted 21 starts with 121.1 innings and a 4.24 ERA to close out the season.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Not sure I'd pick up Odorizzi off the waiver wire, let alone trade for him.

He minds me of  a right handed Hector Santiago, only lefties get away with more than righties do. I'm not a fan of Santiago either

 

[Tomj14]

 

 

The bullpen is waaay better.

 

I hope you are right, I think our closer won't be as good as last year, Reed will make it better, Duke should help, but the rest is the same guys and hopefully they step up. If our starters cause over use, I can't say it will be way better than last year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not sure I'd pick up Odorizzi off the waiver wire, let alone trade for him.

 

Agreed.

[Tomj14]

 

Agreed.

Question - Trevor May could only hope to be as good as Odorizzi has been and May is older, and on this site (not saying you) but quite a few people are hoping he comes back to the rotation (dare I say to save it)

I would rather have Archer and still want to sign Darvish, but why wouldn't Odorizzi be a nice consolidation prize for not getting Archer?

I would rather not trade Javier, Enlow and Baddoo for him, but I don't think it is horrible trade, 3 guys that are not guaranteed for a above average starter for the last three year (not so much last year)

I am not sure how is WAR last years was worse than Gibson - per ESPN.

[rdehring]

 

How is the bullpen about the same? They've added Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke.

And the young kids, both with the Twins and at Rochester, are a year more experienced.  Pen should be much better.

[jimmer]

Whoa, Gibson was decent for longer than I thought he was. Outside his absolutely terrible first two months, he posted 21 starts with 121.1 innings and a 4.24 ERA to close out the season.

he had a nice 5 game run from Aug 22 to Sept 12. Then he went right back to being Kyle Gibson for his last three starts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I hope you are right, I think our closer won't be as good as last year, Reed will make it better, Duke should help, but the rest is the same guys and hopefully they step up. If our starters cause over use, I can't say it will be way better than last year.

Also remember that Hildenberger didn't join the team until June 23.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Question - Trevor May could only hope to be as good as Odorizzi has been and May is older, and on this site (not saying you) but quite a few people are hoping he comes back to the rotation (dare I say to save it)

I would rather have Archer and still want to sign Darvish, but why wouldn't Odorizzi be a nice consolidation prize for not getting Archer?

I would rather not trade Javier, Enlow and Baddoo for him, but I don't think it is horrible trade, 3 guys that are not guaranteed for a above average starter for the last three year (not so much last year)

I am not sure how is WAR last years was worse than Gibson - per ESPN.

 

His WAR was bad because he had a ridiculously low BABIP and not so good K numbers......which indicates it is probably he won't achieve the same results this coming year. 

 

The Twins already have May, hoping on him is very different than trading for him. 

 

Some of us just don't think Jake's success is sustainable. We could be wrong. But, there is a zero percent chance I trade legit prospects for him. Zero.

[Twodogs]

 

Whoa, Gibson was decent for longer than I thought he was. Outside his absolutely terrible first two months, he posted 21 starts with 121.1 innings and a 4.24 ERA to close out the season.

If gibby can throw 160 - 170 innings with a 4.5 - 4.6 era he'd be an ok 4th starter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

he had a nice 5 game run from Aug 22 to Sept 12. Then he went right back to being Kyle Gibson for his last three starts.

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration. He went 6.0, 7.0, 3.2 innings in his final three starts while giving up a total of 11 runs and striking out 20 batters. Definitely groan-worthy at times but between two pretty bad starts, his second to last start was a 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 SO performance.

 

Like I said, I question whether Gibson will be good but I think he can get his ERA under 5.00, which is an improvement. He might even be adequate (4.40-4.60 ERA), but I'm not counting on it.

[rdehring]

 

Question - Trevor May could only hope to be as good as Odorizzi has been and May is older, and on this site (not saying you) but quite a few people are hoping he comes back to the rotation (dare I say to save it)

I would rather have Archer and still want to sign Darvish, but why wouldn't Odorizzi be a nice consolidation prize for not getting Archer?

I would rather not trade Javier, Enlow and Baddoo for him, but I don't think it is horrible trade, 3 guys that are not guaranteed for a above average starter for the last three year (not so much last year)

I am not sure how is WAR last years was worse than Gibson - per ESPN.

Should our front office trade Javier, Enlow and Baddoo for Odorizzi, I would hope that Mr. Pohlad would fire them....immediately.  That trade is an absolute joke and should it happen, the Tampa people should immediately be sent to prison for theft, not allowed to pass go or collect $200.  

 

Not certain it would make sense for the Twins to trade any of the three plus some C level prospect for Odorizzi...much less all three.

 

[Doomtints]

 

I think there's legitimate reason to question a lot of the projections. This team was over .500 last year and it was a very young team. Those teams typically do better the following year, and add to it that Falvine has spent heavily on the BP this offseason.

 

Bottom line is that I think they are already better than last year and should slot into the 85-90 win range. If they get Darvish, that should have them over 90. If they get Darvish and a TB pitcher, they should be reasonably expected to challenge Cleveland.

 

Sure. I'm more conservative with my projection, but I think if you are getting 90 wins v. 85 wins, you're increasing your playoff odds by a lot more than 2%.

[Tomj14]

 

Should our front office trade Javier, Enlow and Baddoo for Odorizzi, I would hope that Mr. Pohlad would fire them....immediately.  That trade is an absolute joke and should it happen, the Tampa people should immediately be sent to prison for theft, not allowed to pass go or collect $200.  

 

Not certain it would make sense for the Twins to trade any of the three plus some C level prospect for Odorizzi...much less all three.

So the 7.7 WAR from the 3 years before don't count, what happened last year that was different? I truly don't know,

Trading guys that the odds say won't make the majors for a 27 year old starter with 126 games started and a career ERA of 3.83 seems about the right price to me, unless of course he was healthy and his velocity dropped and other similar things.

Would I rather have Archer or one of the Mets starter or some other high end guy, absolutely but it seems we aren't willing to pay the asking price for them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Not sure I'd pick up Odorizzi off the waiver wire, let alone trade for him.

 

wow... Ordozzi certainly isn't the sexy name that Archer is, but the guy maintains a sub 4 ERA with a high K rate against an offense first division with two years of control left. I certainly wouldn't give up Kepler, Romero, and Gordon for him, but he's not worthless.

[ScooterDance]

Karolyn: If you were Theo, what would you offer Darvish or Jake? At some point they are going to have to accept a 3-4 year deal, right?

Keith Law: I would take either guy on a 4-year deal; I wonder if GMs are holding especially firm on pitcher contracts because there’s been such a bad history of longer deals, and everyone has known this for a while now, but there would always be one or two GMs (or owners) who would come and Leeroy Jenkins the whole market by saying "SEVEN YEEEEEEEEEARS!"

[Don Walcott]

 

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration. He went 6.0, 7.0, 3.2 innings in his final three starts while giving up a total of 11 runs and striking out 20 batters. Definitely groan-worthy at times but between two pretty bad starts, his second to last start was a 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 SO performance.

 

Like I said, I question whether Gibson will be good but I think he can get his ERA under 5.00, which is an improvement. He might even be adequate (4.40-4.60 ERA), but I'm not counting on it.

If Gibson can inspire the offense to score runs like he did in the second half of last year, he'll win 20 games.

[nytwinsfan]

 

wow... Ordozzi certainly isn't the sexy name that Archer is, but the guy maintains a sub 4 ERA with a high K rate against an offense first division with two years of control left. I certainly wouldn't give up Kepler, Romero, and Gordon for him, but he's not worthless.

An 8K/9 rate is not that great when combined with a nearly 4BB/9 Walk rate.  And it isn't like he's making up for it by being a groundball pitcher. He is extreme fly ball. Unless there is some reason to think last year was a fluke for him, not interested at all. He was literally replacement level last year.

[Guest]

Heyman said the Twins and Brewers aren’t the first choice. My understanding of the language “Heyman” translates that to “His agent told me he wants the Twins and Brewers to get into a bidding war.”

[Guest]

Are they checking out Arrieta and Lincecum?

[BHtwins]

I read the Heyman note as there are two firm offers and Darvish agent is still trying to open it up with Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals whoever.  It's a smoke signal that they are still hoping someone/anyone besides the Brewers and Twins come knocking.

 

From my perspective I think its pretty clear that Darvish doesn't want to come here too bad or a deal would have been done by now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you're Falvey, at what point do you walk away from Darvish?

 

I may have done it already. If he's going to drag his feet for this long because he so badly wants the Dodgers to enter the competition, he can **** straight off. I want him on the team but not badly enough to let this drag into the week before pitchers and catchers report.

 

I hope Falvey and Levine have told him the offer comes off the table in the near future (say, Monday).

[KirbyDome89]

 

Are they checking out Arrieta and Lincecum?

They have a scout going to Lincecum's showcase on the 15th.

 

I saw the Heyman report too and apparently Darvish has turned down a 5 year $110 M offer. There's some speculation that's the Twin's offer, as they were the latest club to submit a formal proposal. IMO it could just as easily be a previous offer that was pushed out after the Twins topped it.