Plan B for Starting Pitching

[Doctor Wu]

Getting closer to the start of Spring Training and crunch time for putting together a pitching staff. We have all been bombarded with rumors and speculation about the likes of the Twins signing free agents like Darvish, Lynn, or Cobb, or trading for someone like Cole (that idea has been taken) or Archer. But what if the Twins are unable to land any of those pitchers? Is there a Plan B? Or more specifically, are than any other quality starting pitcher available (either as a free agent or by trade) that we might be able to get? I loved the signing of Pineda, even though he won't be much of a factor this year due to his rehab, but are there any other "sleeper" candidates for the rotation that we are overlooking?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm guessing Archer is plan B if they cannot get one of the big name FAs...

[rdehring]

Write in Santana, Berrios and Gibson as #1-#3, although I believe Berrios will be the staff ACE this season.

 

If Mejia can hold down the #4 job, there is one remaining opening.  That's a big if in my book, but hopefully I will be proven wrong by this young man. 

 

Hughes or May can probably fill that spot once they are healthy.  Problem is no one knows Hughes' schedule and May will likely miss the first two months of the season.  If they don't get one of the big four, may make sense to get someone who has experience and can at least provide some innings early on. 

 

The thing they don't want to do is rush Gonsalves, Romero or Jorge. 

[FormerMinnasotan]

I’d go after Jake Arrieta. He’s the best starter available after Darvish, plus he is at worst a #2 but has been an ace before.

[gunnarthor]

I think we end up with Lynn. Santana, Lynn, Berrios, Gibson and Mejia are opening day rotation (if all are healthy) with AAA rotation being Slegers, May, Gonsalves and Romero.

 

That's not the greatest rotation but if Berrios makes the leap, you have a stud in him, two professional pitchers in Lynn and Santana and a much improved bullpen as well.

[Taildragger8791]

I've mentally prepared myself for the likelihood that we'll be left out of the game of musical chairs and it'll be another year of trying to plug 11 holes with 10 fingers. There are only a few impactful FAs out there and it's tough to both win a bidding war and sell a candidate on coming here. Maybe the new front office will buck Twins history and pull the trigger on a trade involving actual prospects (and have it turn out positively for a change). I just hope I'm wrong because this team is talented and we shouldn't settle for the usual revolving door of crapshoots filling the back-end of the rotation.

[laloesch]

 

I think we end up with Lynn. Santana, Lynn, Berrios, Gibson and Mejia are opening day rotation (if all are healthy) with AAA rotation being Slegers, May, Gonsalves and Romero.

 

That's not the greatest rotation but if Berrios makes the leap, you have a stud in him, two professional pitchers in Lynn and Santana and a much improved bullpen as well.

 

Lance Lynn as well.   He's been solid and dependable with the exception of the year he lost to TJ.  Nothing wrong with another work horse in the rotation along with Berrios and Santana that can average 8+ k's per 9.  Plus he will be much more affordable than Darvish, if the Twins don't get him. 

[beckmt]

Do not want Lynn or Arrieta.  Cobb would be an OK plan B, but he would not get us to the next level.  Still want to go big with Darvish.  Maybe a trade for someone we were not expecting or hang around until midseason and make a deal for a pitcher from a club that changes direction (Toronto is the most likely candidate).

[Taildragger8791]

 

Do not want Lynn or Arrieta.  Cobb would be an OK plan B, but he would not get us to the next level.  Still want to go big with Darvish.  Maybe a trade for someone we were not expecting or hang around until midseason and make a deal for a pitcher from a club that changes direction (Toronto is the most likely candidate).

 

I don't know if they can wait around til midseason with the collection they have now. There isn't a #5 pitcher on the team coming out of the gate, unless you're going to transition Duffey back to rotation or bring a prospect north from Spring Training. I don't think you'll get anything from Hughes.

[Respy]

Well, I think the plan B is signing the likes of Lynn, Cobb, or Arrieta.  Signing nobody else would be plan C, which I might add is the 'typical' Twins offseason.  Personally I think they will end up signing Cobb, as the Twins already spent quite a bit on Addison Reed, the Twins observed Cobb pitching very well against them last year, Cobb will come at the biggest discount because of missed time in 2015-2016, and he doesn't allow many walks which pairs best with the Twins good defense.  Is it not the move I would make, but it's the move I expect.

[ashbury]

and he doesn't allow many walks which pairs best with the Twins good defense.

Off the top of my head, not allowing walks is always desirable, and probably pairs better with a bad defense so that when miscues occur they aren't compounded by an unnecessary guy on base who maybe put pressure on that defense in the first place.

[Respy]

 

Off the top of my head, not allowing walks is always desirable, and probably pairs better with a bad defense so that when miscues occur they aren't compounded by an unnecessary guy on base who maybe put pressure on that defense in the first place.

 

Well, I was trying to avoid adding to the gross overuse of the borderline curse-phrase: "Pitch-to-contact"

 

In past years I would cringe of pitch-to-contact when we had Willingham or Colabello in the outfield.  But now, it makes more sense (from starting pitchers at least).

[Twodogs]

Well I believe Cobb, Lynn, Darvish, Arrieta are all a part of plan A. But there are some middling guys available like Jaime Garcia I think is a F.A. etc... To at least plug the 5th spot in the rotation until the trade deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well I believe Cobb, Lynn, Darvish, Arrieta are all a part of plan A. But there are some middling guys available like Jaime Garcia I think is a F.A. etc... To at least plug the 5th spot in the rotation until the trade deadline.

 

i'd rather see Gonsalves or Slegers or you than Garcia.

[Twodogs]

Hey you've never seen me, my 2nd grader has a mean fastball though.

 

I agree, not trying in any way to say that I would like to see Jaime Garcia, I'm just saying there are guys like that available, and as long as this market has dragged out those guys will probably be pretty cheap.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Well I believe Cobb, Lynn, Darvish, Arrieta are all a part of plan A. But there are some middling guys available like Jaime Garcia I think is a F.A. etc... To at least plug the 5th spot in the rotation until the trade deadline.

It sounds like Wade Miley is that “plan b” pitcher. I just read an article on that at mlb.com. I hope not, Miley isn’t the pitcher we need unless we want to call up Gonsalves earlier in the season.

[laloesch]

Plan B could be to roll with what they have (Berrios, Santana, Gibson, Meija, Hughes) and make lemons into lemonade and sell them at the stadium.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I have a soft spot for flyball pitchers, given our outfield.

 

That is as much thought as i'd prefer to put into the issue.

[Dantes929]

 

Write in Santana, Berrios and Gibson as #1-#3, although I believe Berrios will be the staff ACE this season.

 

If Mejia can hold down the #4 job, there is one remaining opening.  That's a big if in my book, but hopefully I will be proven wrong by this young man. 

 

Hughes or May can probably fill that spot once they are healthy.  Problem is no one knows Hughes' schedule and May will likely miss the first two months of the season.  If they don't get one of the big four, may make sense to get someone who has experience and can at least provide some innings early on. 

 

The thing they don't want to do is rush Gonsalves, Romero or Jorge. 

Why is Mejia a big if?   I thought he was pretty decent aside from the biceps strain.    His ERA was league average and his OPS+ for starters was behind only Santana and Berrios and better than Hughes career average.   He's not dynamite but I will be thrilled when a 4.50 ERA isn't good enough to make the rotation.   Very few teams can say that's the case.

[rdehring]

 

Why is Mejia a big if?   I thought he was pretty decent aside from the biceps strain.    His ERA was league average and his OPS+ for starters was behind only Santana and Berrios and better than Hughes career average.   He's not dynamite but I will be thrilled when a 4.50 ERA isn't good enough to make the rotation.   Very few teams can say that's the case.

He's a big if for me for several reasons.  First, he hasn't proven he can consistently pitch thru six innings, much less seven.  His defense is questionable and he struggles to cover first base.  Don't know if he just isn't very athletic or if it is the extra weight.  Would love to see him show up in camp 10-15# lighter and in much better condition.  

 

Until he proves he can pitch further into games and appears in better condition, he is a big if for me.

[Twins33]

He's a big if for me for several reasons.  First, he hasn't proven he can consistently pitch thru six innings, much less seven.  His defense is questionable and he struggles to cover first base.  Don't know if he just isn't very athletic or if it is the extra weight.  Would love to see him show up in camp 10-15# lighter and in much better condition.  

 

Until he proves he can pitch further into games and appears in better condition, he is a big if for me.

I like Mejia, but I agree with this. In half his starts, he didn't even make it to five innings. That's not acceptable, even from a fifth starter.

 

He posts workout videos on instagram occasionally and his face looks slimmer in those videos, but it doesn't in still shots so hard to say if he's lost anything.

[Twodogs]

 

I have a soft spot for flyball pitchers, given our outfield.

That is as much thought as i'd prefer to put into the issue.

Darvish will give up some fly ball too, it will just be a lot less of them.

[jud6312]

If Darvish, Lynn, Arrietta and Cobb go elsewhere, and the ask for Archer is too high, I'm guessing a trade target for someone like Strailey.

 

He's not exciting, but he has to be a better option than Wade Miley.

[Brandon]

If no one else signs....Colon!

[Doctor Wu]

Hey, I was just going to mention "Big Sexy" ! Don't think he's announced his retirement yet? As long as we aren't talking about a Nick Blackburn comeback, I'll settle for any warm body for a half-season until some of the youngsters are ready.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Well I believe Cobb, Lynn, Darvish, Arrieta are all a part of plan A. But there are some middling guys available like Jaime Garcia I think is a F.A. etc... To at least plug the 5th spot in the rotation until the trade deadline.

I honestly wouldn't be shocked if they picked up Garcia on the cheap.Not an exciting addition, but not one we would regret either.

[kab21]

 

Why is Mejia a big if?   I thought he was pretty decent aside from the biceps strain.    His ERA was league average and his OPS+ for starters was behind only Santana and Berrios and better than Hughes career average.   He's not dynamite but I will be thrilled when a 4.50 ERA isn't good enough to make the rotation.   Very few teams can say that's the case.

He is a big if because he had a 4 BB/9, a 5.03 xFIP and a averaged <5IP/GS. I liked what I saw but he might flop next year. We have been fooled by strong rookie performances before and considered them a lock to repeat the next year with very little plan B. On the bright side there are several very good prospects in AAA this year that could step up.

[Dantes929]

 

He is a big if because he had a 4 BB/9, a 5.03 xFIP and a averaged <5IP/GS. I liked what I saw but he might flop next year. We have been fooled by strong rookie performances before and considered them a lock to repeat the next year with very little plan B. On the bright side there are several very good prospects in AAA this year that could step up.

Well, to be fair, we've been fooled by pretty much everything before.   May and Berrios are go to examples of struggling early and then finding success but if someone does ok early we see that as a recipe for failure?    I know.  That's not exactly what you meant but he averaged 6 innings a start and 2.1 BB/9 in the minors.   I see reason to expect more, not less.    I'm not so concerned with plan B's.   If they were strong options they would probably be plan A anyway.    Puckett, Knoblach, Hunter, Span and Buxton did not have much for plan B behind them.   With a little thought and research I am guessing I could come up with dozens more in a short time.   Of course there are failures as well.    Like I said, we've been fooled by pretty much every situation at one time or another.  Injury and Molitor pulling him before he would have other guys account for some of the inning issues.    His ERA plus was third in the rotation and would have been mostly 2nd and no worse than 3rd on every other team this decade except for 2015.    If he does that again and is the 5th ERA+ this year I will consider that to be a very good thing and then we can talk about upgrading.  

[kab21]

 

Well, to be fair, we've been fooled by pretty much everything before.   May and Berrios are go to examples of struggling early and then finding success but if someone does ok early we see that as a recipe for failure?    I know.  That's not exactly what you meant but he averaged 6 innings a start and 2.1 BB/9 in the minors.   I see reason to expect more, not less.    I'm not so concerned with plan B's.   If they were strong options they would probably be plan A anyway.    Puckett, Knoblach, Hunter, Span and Buxton did not have much for plan B behind them.   With a little thought and research I am guessing I could come up with dozens more in a short time.   Of course there are failures as well.    Like I said, we've been fooled by pretty much every situation at one time or another.  Injury and Molitor pulling him before he would have other guys account for some of the inning issues.    His ERA plus was third in the rotation and would have been mostly 2nd and no worse than 3rd on every other team this decade except for 2015.    If he does that again and is the 5th ERA+ this year I will consider that to be a very good thing and then we can talk about upgrading.  

ERA+ is meaningless in small sample sizes. 100ish innings

And just to be sure that this is stressed. I liked what I saw from Mejia last year. But pretty big ifs remain. I think he should certainly be given every opportunity to start and in every scenario (short of trading for Archer and signing Darvish) he is in my opening day rotation.