Yahoo Sports Says Both Twins and Cardinals Pursuing Trade with Rays for Chris Archer

[jsteve96]

 

I mean, they absolutely are. 

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/10/24/16537288/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2018

 

A- vs. A-/B+. #1 vs. #2. Floor vs. Ceiling. Yeah, they're comparable, especially when you consider immediate needs. In fact, I'll bet I could find you some teams that would want Gordon even when their evaluations lead them to believe that Lewis is better, simply because they can plug Gordon into the lineup pretty much now.

 

Fine if you like Lewis better; I mean, I guess I do too, but it's close. But "not even remotely comparable"? That's hyperbolic.

That same article has Brusdar Graterol below Littel and thorpe, I guarantee this front office would give up the other 2 over Graterol. Nick Gordon is not even close to the prospect Royce is.

[jsteve96]

 

Nolasco was a highly regarded free agent at the time, and there were VERY few Twins fans ringing the alarm bells. I only know of a couple of us.

 

Archer looks similar to Nolasco to me. A good year in the past with a misleading FIP.

 

In my opinion, the Twins moving assets to land Archer would be nearly as dumb as the Milone trade. The classic con. Hopefully the Twins give up something crappy in return, if this happens, as they did with Milone.

Chris Archer first 6 years: 3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.46 FIP, 9.7K/9, 2.9BB/9, 200+ innings 3 straight years

Ricky Nolasco first 6 years: 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.76 FIP, 7.3K/9, 2.1BB/9,  200+ innings 2x in 6 years

 

Not only are Archers numbers better, he played in the AL East while Nolasco faced pitchers 3 times a game..... Also, the only player we traded in the Tommy Milone trade was Sam Fuld....lol that was a good trade

 

 

[Winston Smith]

Kepler, Gordon and Romero for Archer and Span. TB saves around 15 mill for a few years dumping the Span and Archer contracts adding a couple cheap contracts. Span could play RF for a year still is an ok player. 

Kepler plays right away, 5 years of control. Gordon and Romero should be ready within a year and will be cheap with long term control.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Nolasco was a highly regarded free agent at the time, and there were VERY few Twins fans ringing the alarm bells. I only know of a couple of us.

 

Archer looks similar to Nolasco to me. A good year in the past with a misleading FIP.

 

In my opinion, the Twins moving assets to land Archer would be nearly as dumb as the Milone trade. The classic con. Hopefully the Twins give up something crappy in return, if this happens, as they did with Milone.

 

 

We will have to agree to disagree on this one. Archer still strikes out over 1 per inning while Nolasco when we signed him had regressed drastically from his early years in this department plus balloned ERA. Two totally different pitchers IMO. Great we can atleast have this discussion about obtaining higher end talent. Darvich and his injury history scares the heck out of me. If the cost is Gordon, 1 top pitching prospect and 1 other lower rated prospect I'm in on Archer. No way if Lewis is in the package.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

We will have to agree to disagree on this one. Archer still strikes out over 1 per inning while Nolasco when we signed him had regressed drastically from his early years in this department plus balloned ERA. Two totally different pitchers IMO. Great we can atleast have this discussion about obtaining higher end talent. Darvich and his injury history scares the heck out of me. If the cost is Gordon, 1 top pitching prospect and 1 other lower rated prospect I'm in on Archer. No way if Lewis is in the package.

Totally agree. Seems like the Twins need to bridge that gap between Gordon and Lewis while keeping Lewis. Like the other poster said, taking Span and his salary for 2018 as a 4/5 OF is an interesting idea.

[mudcat14]

 

Kepler, Gordon and Romero for Archer and Span. TB saves around 15 mill for a few years dumping the Span and Archer contracts adding a couple cheap contracts. Span could play RF for a year still is an ok player. 

Kepler plays right away, 5 years of control. Gordon and Romero should be ready within a year and will be cheap with long term control.

 

I hope the Twins would not even consider this.  The daily core line-up shouldn't be changed at all.  If prospects alone aren't enough to net Archer, then throw all our chips into the FA pool.  Hopefully Darvish, then Cobb or Lynn.  I don't want Arrietta.  I'm convinced he'll be a financial bust.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Archer looks similar to Nolasco to me. A good year in the past with a misleading FIP.

 

Career Data:

 

Nolasco: 4.56 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 18.8 K%, 13.1 K-BB%, 1.33 WHIP , 9.6 SwStr%,
Archer: 3.63 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 25.9 K%, 18.0 K-BB%, 1.21 WHIP , 11.5 SwStr%, 
Darvish: 3.42 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 29.7 K%, 20.7 K-BB%, 1.18 WHIP , 12.2 SwStr%,

 

Does Archer look more similar to Nolasco or to Darvish?  And, unlike the other two, Nolasco has played many games in the NL pitching to pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

For 4 affordable years of Archer, I am guessing a few teams could part with a corner OF (Kepler), or a backup catcher (Garver), or a back of the rotation option (Mejia), or relievers.

Most win-now teams don't have the numerous young controllable players who are both MLB ready and expendable. In the Twins case it's not a corner outfielder OR a catcher OR a back of the rotation (LH) starter OR relievers, (OR middle infielders) it's AND.

[Winston Smith]

If we still had Duending it would be easy to make a deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Most win-now teams don't have the numerous young controllable players who are both MLB ready and expendable. In the Twins case it's not a corner outfielder OR a catcher OR a back of the rotation (LH) starter OR relievers, (OR middle infielders) it's AND.

I think you are overrating the value Tampa might place on those guys. They might be interested in a couple as part of a package, but they aren't taking back four 40-man roster guys for Archer. So the fact that the Twins have 4 to offer isn't that significant.

 

Looking at their roster, it's not even clear that they'd have a place for Kepler to play right now without unloading someone else. They'd probably have to block Adames or Arroyo to play Polanco. Pitchers are easier to fit in, but even after Archer and Cobb are gone, they have 4 SP holdovers from 2017 plus Honeywell.

[TheLeviathan]

Frankly, I simply dont see how we are in the conversation even. So maybe they like a couple players more than we, or the general scouting community, does.

 

If so, we should be all over this. A Gordon/Romero centered deal is a heist. (If true, i have doubts it is anyone but Lewis and i doubt the new FO is dealing him)

[nicksaviking]

I think you are overrating the value Tampa might place on those guys. They might be interested in a couple as part of a package, but they aren't taking back four 40-man roster guys for Archer. So the fact that the Twins have 4 to offer isn't that significant.

Looking at their roster, it's not even clear that they'd have a place for Kepler to play right now without unloading someone else. They'd probably have to block Adames or Arroyo to play Polanco. Pitchers are easier to fit in, but even after Archer and Cobb are gone, they have 4 SP holdovers from 2017 plus Honeywell.

Having more absolutely makes a difference, the Twins can tell TB that they can take thier pick of various combinations of Gordon, Gonsalves, Romero, Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Mejia, Busenitz, Curtis, Gibson, Thorpe, Duffey, Rosario and they can discuss non-40-man players in addition. How many contenders can afford to offer up a full 1/3rd of their roster for negotiation?

[Brandon]

We have lots of depth in prospects which a lot are projected to make it to the show. I think Tampa would be happy if they received a package that contained 3 or 4 players they can control for 6 seasons at a low cost. It probably doesnt matter if they have someone blocking a prospect at majors cause they can always trade established players who are more expensive. I think a package of Gonsalves, Gorden, Jay, killeroff, and an extra like Granite or Sledgers...you can mix and match but odds are Tampa will get good value out of that trade. I would be more open to a trade like this if we signed Darvish. Cause then Archer gives us 3 starters under contract for 4 years or more reducing the need for so many pitching prospects for a few years while the next round of pitchers from upcomming drafts develop.

[AZTwin]

I don’t really like Archer but I’d do a package like:

 

Nick Gordon

Lamonte Wade

Aaron Slegers

Travis blackenhorn

[gunnarthor]

 

Frankly, I simply dont see how we are in the conversation even. So maybe they like a couple players more than we, or the general scouting community, does.

If so, we should be all over this. A Gordon/Romero centered deal is a heist. (If true, i have doubts it is anyone but Lewis and i doubt the new FO is dealing him)

It could be possible that the teams view Archer less than we do, too. He has managed 3 WAR over the last 400ip. You have to pretty convinced about fip to think he's an ace.

[AZTwin]

If we trade Royce Lewis for a #3 guy like archer than what I don’t think I can follow this team anymore. Simply put, it’s not going to happen

[Otto von Ballpark]

Having more absolutely makes a difference, the Twins can tell TB that they can take thier pick of various combinations of Gordon, Gonsalves, Romero, Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Mejia, Busenitz, Curtis, Gibson, Thorpe, Duffey, Rosario and they can discuss non-40-man players in addition. How many contenders can afford to offer up a full 1/3rd of their roster for negotiation?

Who cares? If some other club only has 5 of these guys, that's still not going to erase the demand for someone like Lewis or Reyes at the top of the deal. (And adding Gibson, Duffey, Busenitz, etc. is stretching this group far beyond its usefulness for an Archer trade discussion anyway. And every club has guys like that which it could afford to deal for Archer.)

[jorgenswest]

Someone will trade an elite prospect. The Rays can afford to be patient and wait to the deadline as the White Sox did with Quintana. If the Twins are interested and want to approach the Rays they had better do so with every minor leaguer on the table.

 

It is very reasonable to take the position that the Twins should not part with Lewis and one of their top pitchers for Archer. The truth is Lewis is a long way away. Does he grow into a corner OF or stick at SS? Is his career path heading towards Correa or Kepler?

[Otto von Ballpark]

It could be possible that the teams view Archer less than we do, too. He has managed 3 WAR over the last 400ip. You have to pretty convinced about fip to think he's an ace.

Could be, but that doesn't mean Tampa will give him up for a handful of modest prospects. It will mean they keep holding on to him.

[nicksaviking]

Who cares? If some other club only has 5 of these guys, that's still not going to erase the demand for someone like Lewis or Reyes at the top of the deal. (And adding Gibson, Duffey, Busenitz, etc. is stretching this group far beyond its usefulness for an Archer trade discussion anyway. And every club has guys like that which it could afford to deal for Archer.)

None of us have any idea which players TB would actually value, but history and TB's tendencies absolutely tell us MLB ready players are weighted heavier by teams in these deals. Giving a team 15 options instead of 5 seems like a significant advantage. Maybe the other team's group of five ends up having players TB desires more, but having 15 certainly gives the Twins better odds.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kepler, Gordon and Romero for Archer and Span. TB saves around 15 mill for a few years dumping the Span and Archer contracts adding a couple cheap contracts. Span could play RF for a year still is an ok player.

Kepler plays right away, 5 years of control. Gordon and Romero should be ready within a year and will be cheap with long term control.

Kepler only "plays right away" if the Rays also deal (or bench) one of Souza (3 years of control left), Dickerson (2), or Mallex Smith (5). And that's also considering DH, which would be a suboptimal position to address using Archer (and corner OF isn't much better).

[TheLeviathan]

 

It could be possible that the teams view Archer less than we do, too. He has managed 3 WAR over the last 400ip. You have to pretty convinced about fip to think he's an ace.

 

Perhaps....I just find it unlikely.

[Otto von Ballpark]

None of us have any idea which players TB would actually value, but history and TB's tendencies absolutely tell us MLB ready players are weighted heavier by teams in these deals. Giving a team 15 options instead of 5 seems like a significant advantage. Maybe the other team's group of five ends up having players TB desires more, but having 15 certainly gives the Twins better odds.

I guess, but that just seems like a pretty marginal consideration compared to the Lewis/Reyes type headliner. If you're saying, "if Lewis is considered elite and we are ready to deal him, we are well-prepared to round out the package," I would agree. But the bigger hurdle by far is the Lewis part, not the rounding out.

 

Not to mention that Lewis isn't MLB ready, which could hurt the top end of our offer compared to, say, the Cardinals.

[FlauerPauer]

It's tough to speculate on trades with the Rays.  Like many have said, we don't know how they value within the Twins system.  If they want high ceiling guys, maybe they value Lewis, Javier, and Grateral more than others.  Maybe they want MLB ready players maybe they value Gordon, Gonsalves, and Romero more.  The Twins also have to figure out if they think Polanco is capable of holding down short for the next three years.  I don't think Gordon is a future SS; probably more of a 2b.  Do the Cardinals want to give in to Tampa's price tag given their rotation pieces and pitchers in the high minors?

 

I think, ultimately, the Twins end up with one of Archer and Darvish.  Maybe both; who knows. 

[mudcat14]

I think some of you are selling Gordon way too short as a prospect.  He is #30 on the MLB Top 100.  Lewis is at #27, with a much smaller sample size.  Gonsalves is #54 & Romero #61.  Gordon & Romero plus a lesser prospect or two is a very kind reasonable offer for Archer.  If the Cardinals or any one else choose to top that offer, let them.     

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think some of you are selling Gordon way too short as a prospect.  He is #30 on the MLB Top 100.  Lewis is at #27, with a much smaller sample size.  Gonsalves is #54 & Romero #61.  Gordon & Romero plus a lesser prospect or two is a very kind reasonable offer for Archer.  If the Cardinals or any one else choose to top that offer, let them.     

 

I think most of us expect Gordon to be far lower on that chart this time around after his second half last year.

[Doomtints]

 

Chris Archer first 6 years: 3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.46 FIP, 9.7K/9, 2.9BB/9, 200+ innings 3 straight years

Ricky Nolasco first 6 years: 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.76 FIP, 7.3K/9, 2.1BB/9,  200+ innings 2x in 6 years

 

Note that I never said their numbers were identical. You can re-read what i actually said.

[ashbury]

In my opinion, the Twins moving assets to land Archer would be nearly as dumb as the Milone trade.

It's already been asked, but: Tommy Milone? The pitcher we obtained in return for a guy picked up on waivers? What has he go to do with Chris Archer, who FWIW has been involved twice in blockbuster trades, and may be going for the trifecta here.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I think some of you are selling Gordon way too short as a prospect.  He is #30 on the MLB Top 100.  Lewis is at #27, with a much smaller sample size.  Gonsalves is #54 & Romero #61.  Gordon & Romero plus a lesser prospect or two is a very kind reasonable offer for Archer.  If the Cardinals or any one else choose to top that offer, let them.     

That's from last year. Guarantee you that Lewis will be much higher than Gordon when the new top 100 comes out. Gordon had a second half collapse last year. Lewis looked great in Ceder Rapids as a 18 yo and got rave reviews for his game from scouts. Makes a big difference.

[jimmer]

 

I think some of you are selling Gordon way too short as a prospect.  He is #30 on the MLB Top 100.  Lewis is at #27, with a much smaller sample size.  Gonsalves is #54 & Romero #61.  Gordon & Romero plus a lesser prospect or two is a very kind reasonable offer for Archer.  If the Cardinals or any one else choose to top that offer, let them.     

MLB gives a lot of weight to how close a prospect is to the majors.