Sickels Top 20

[gunnarthor]

I really enjoyed Sickel's write up of Rooker. He'll probably be the high man on him but he certainly trusts the bat.  If Rooker could turn into a quick to the major RH power bat ....

[drjim]

I really enjoyed Sickel's write up of Rooker. He'll probably be the high man on him but he certainly trusts the bat. If Rooker could turn into a quick to the major RH power bat ....

Yup. Should start in AA and has a legit chance to be up by August if he performs.

[biggentleben]

 

by the way, it's worth noting some of the comments on Sickle's article. Having 20 guys that could B- and above is a very deep system.

 

While still lacking on the top end sure thing side of things, this team has a lot of high ceiling guys that can either supplement the team long term or be used as trade chips in the short term.

 

3-6 top 100 guys this offseason, depending on who you talk with is fairly good top end. The depth, however, is very, very good. I've chatted with a few at places that will be putting out lists that have the Twins as a top 10 system.

 

Don't sleep on Graterol. Might be surprised how many top 100s he creeps into this year with the talk about him with folks.

[biggentleben]

 

Thanks for that perspective on Diaz. Would explain his ranking despite his not great numbers.

 

I'm a huge Diaz fan. Absolutely love him.

[biggentleben]

 

To me, Lewin Diaz seems like another Kennys Vargas with the relatively low OBP at low A. That's concerning. Baddoo looks like a stud. I'm much higher on Thorpe than most. I think he'll be a reliable #3-4 with a #2 ceiling. 

 

Diaz has very good pitch recognition. He's just aggressive on the stuff he sees he can get after, and he's got the contact ability to make contact with most of it. He's kept his strikeout rate low due to a solid understanding of the zone and pitch recognition. He honestly reminds me a ton of a former Twins lefty swinger that racked up doubles and then had a swing adjustment in Boston that turned him into a Hall of Famer. Hopefully Rowson gets with him to continue the swing work he's done in the last year+ to improve his ability to impact the ball. Things sound different off his bat, even if they don't leave the yard. I don't have access to exit velo on him, but just in watching plenty of his games, I'm not sure anyone but Vlad Jr. had a ball leap off his bat the way Diaz did this year in the Midwest.

[biggentleben]

 

could be the Braves'

 

No, it couldn't be. Plus, the Braves don't have a GM right now nor multiple other pieces they'll need to be ready for the 2018 season. They'll be a step behind other orgs this offseason, waiting for an announcement once the WS is over.

[old nurse]

 

On Nick Gordon, it's important to note that he spent all year as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He was three years younger than the average player at that level, and faced older pitchers 89.8 percent of the time. He's almost an entire year younger than Brent Rooker.

 

Before I saw Lewin Diaz play I figured he was just some all or nothing slugging first baseman. After seeing him a bit on MiLB.tv this season, I'm a lot more intrigued. To my eye, it looks like he has great hands. He only struck out in 15.8 percent of his at bats and also hit same-sided pitching, which is encouraging (.268/.319/.455 vs. LHP). From July forward (49 games), he hit .319. If he becomes more selective, focusing on "his" pitch rather than just hitable pitches, and the power takes another step (he led the Midwest League in doubles) he could be a beast.

Your write up shows the problem with stat line scouting.

 

[ashbury]

He honestly reminds me a ton of a former Twins lefty swinger that racked up doubles and then had a swing adjustment in Boston that turned him into a Hall of Famer.

Drawing a blank - can you be more specific?

[Vanimal46]

Diaz is on the extensive list of players that are Rule 5 eligible this offseason. Do you make him a priority add on the 40 man? Or could he slip by this winter without adding him on the 40 man?

[drjim]

3 Twins prospects to watch, from minirleagueball:

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/platform/amp/2017/10/28/16563768/three-minnesota-twins-prospects-you-should-know

[biggentleben]

 

Diaz is on the extensive list of players that are Rule 5 eligible this offseason. Do you make him a priority add on the 40 man? Or could he slip by this winter without adding him on the 40 man?

 

I'd not add him. He's not played above A-ball. You do put him on the AAA protected list, though because he'd absolutely go in the AAA portion.

[70charger]

 

Diaz is on the extensive list of players that are Rule 5 eligible this offseason. Do you make him a priority add on the 40 man? Or could he slip by this winter without adding him on the 40 man?

 

Unless his bat plays in the majors right damn now you don't add him. He has no positional value, he's not a pitcher you can stash in the bullpen, and you can't hide him as anything other than a black hole in your offensive lineup. I doubt there's a team that bites on his bat being major league ready. Even if they do, I doubt he lasts a season.

[biggentleben]

 

Unless his bat plays in the majors right damn now you don't add him. He has no positional value, he's not a pitcher you can stash in the bullpen, and you can't hide him as anything other than a black hole in your offensive lineup. I doubt there's a team that bites on his bat being major league ready. Even if they do, I doubt he lasts a season.

 

Not advocating for him to be protected, but he isn't limited to 1B defensively as he has a good arm and is reasonably athletic - moreso than Rooker for sure.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not advocating for him to be protected, but he isn't limited to 1B defensively as he has a good arm and is reasonably athletic - moreso than Rooker for sure.

If there was even a chance he could play RF in the majors, don't you think the Twins would have at least tried him there by now?

 

I think the fact that Diaz hasn't played even a single inning anywhere but 1B is pretty telling as to his defensive ability.

[old nurse]

 

Unless his bat plays in the majors right damn now you don't add him. He has no positional value, he's not a pitcher you can stash in the bullpen, and you can't hide him as anything other than a black hole in your offensive lineup. I doubt there's a team that bites on his bat being major league ready. Even if they do, I doubt he lasts a season.

Stuart Turner says hello.

[ashbury]

He has no positional value

 

Stuart Turner says hello.

Stuart Turner has positional value.

[70charger]

 

Stuart Turner says hello.

 

Your counterpoint is a catcher? Who was, by all internal accounts, defensively excellent? 

[old nurse]

 

Your counterpoint is a catcher? Who was, by all internal accounts, defensively excellent? 

First name that popped into my head. Colin Walsh for the Brewers in 2016 spent half the year there. Jabari Blash for the Padres. It happens that clubs will stash a position player. A team like the Padres.  The teams near the bottom most likely to stash a player have a 1b covered , but that doesn't mean much sometimes.

[Guest]

Mlb.com has Jorge at #7, but he didn’t make Sickels’ top 20. Any insight as to why?

 

Disclosure: I don’t think Jorge is anything special.

[Mr. Brooks]

Mlb.com has Jorge at #7, but he didn’t make Sickels’ top 20. Any insight as to why?

 

Disclosure: I don’t think Jorge is anything special.

I think MLB are still from mid season. I'd imagine Jorge will drop past 10 at least in their spring rankings.

 

As for Sickels, he seems to rank cieling higher, and Jorge doesn't have a high one. And, after this year, even his floor isn't looking as great. I'm guessing Sickels has decided he's a bullpen arm, whereas MLB might still be holding out hope he can be 5th starter.

[biggentleben]

 

If there was even a chance he could play RF in the majors, don't you think the Twins would have at least tried him there by now?

I think the fact that Diaz hasn't played even a single inning anywhere but 1B is pretty telling as to his defensive ability.

 

From what I've seen of him, the shape of his body has changed drastically in the last two years. He does have some very good instincts at first, though. Much like a guy like Bellinger, you could have a guy playing average or even above average outfield or playing high-end defense at first. At what point is the trade off not worth it, especially as there's obvious work on his offensive approach happening that I'm sure the team wants him focusing on.

[laloesch]

 

Kohl Stewart not even ranked in the top 20 anymore. That is surprising to me.

 

I'm not surprised.  2017 was a train wreck of a season for him considering where he was drafted.

[bluechipper]

 

I'm not surprised.  2017 was a train wreck of a season for him considering where he was drafted.

It was a nightmare season, and he still had a 4.28 ERA. I just can't ignore his career 3.10 ERA, even with the uninspiring strikeout and walk numbers.

[Mr. Brooks]

It was a nightmare season, and he still had a 4.28 ERA. I just can't ignore his career 3.10 ERA, even with the uninspiring strikeout and walk numbers.

Uninspiring is an understatement.

They are awful to the point of being predictive of a guy with almost no chance of being successful in mlb.

I'm not sure milb ERA is significant one way or the other.

[laloesch]

Uninspiring is an understatement.

They are awful to the point of being predictive of a guy with almost no chance of being successful in mlb.

I'm not sure milb ERA is significant one way or the other.

The failure of this pick and Tyler Jay (as a starter) really stings for this pitching starved organization.

[howieramone2]

 

The failure of this pick and Tyler Jay (as a starter) really stings for this pitching starved organization.

Stewart is far from a failed pick and Jay still has plenty of value as a power arm in the pen. I'm more than willing to wait for the fat lady. 

[kab21]

 

Stewart is far from a failed pick and Jay still has plenty of value as a power arm in the pen. I'm more than willing to wait for the fat lady. 

He is currently an on the fence protected/unprotected rule 5 pick. That is not far from failed imo. He also close to 500 IP of <6 K/9 on his resume. This really isn't looking good right now.

[howieramone2]

 

He is currently an on the fence protected/unprotected rule 5 pick. That is not far from failed imo. He also close to 500 IP of <6 K/9 on his resume. This really isn't looking good right now.

Not every pitcher is a strikeout pitcher, in fact most aren't. Judging anyone based on one metric, is always hazardous. He's 23, and was the consensus top high school pitcher in 2013, and not unlike Mauer, practically a world class athlete. I'm in no big hurry, let's see what the fat lady does.

[drivlikejehu]

As far as I'm aware, no pitcher with Stewart's minor league peripherals has gone on to become a solid MLB starter in at least 20 years, if not more. There's essentially zero chance of that outcome.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

As far as I'm aware, no pitcher with Stewart's minor league peripherals has gone on to become a solid MLB starter in at least 20 years, if not more. There's essentially zero chance of that outcome.

 

I don't know if this statement of fact is true, but I do agree that the odds aren't in Kohl's favor. I'd note though that the scouts keep saying the stuff is there, which says that perhaps Stewart's issue is something correctable. I don't have the problem burning an option or two to see if he can correct it, so long as no bigger potential guy gets lost in the process. The reward is still fairly high, even if Stewart's asset value (to use an impersonal term) has taken a hit. For a team that needs pitching, that reward is worth something.