Sickels Top 20

[bird]

 

Sometimes, you don't even have to see them play.  Baddoo looks like Adrian Peterson on his heyday...

 

 

Funny, but I saw a comparison to Angel Morales myself.

[bird]

 

by the way, it's worth noting some of the comments on Sickle's article. Having 20 guys that could B- and above is a very deep system.

 

While still lacking on the top end sure thing side of things, this team has a lot of high ceiling guys that can either supplement the team long term or be used as trade chips in the short term.

 

 

This is an important observation. Additionally, 38 of the 61 prospects mentioned are pitchers, two thirds. Granted, a majority of the most highly regarded prospects are position players, but as you and others point out, with Sickle's C+ prospects, it's a numbers game where the odds are actually fairly high that you'll see a bunch of those C+'s converted to B's. And maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part, but I am encouraged by the fact that a number of those names in the final clump of straight C prospects are names that have generated some excitement in the recent past, C+ guys like Tyler Watson, Lachlan Wells, even Kohl Stewart have fairly realistic shots at making a MLB roster some day. But so do some of the C guys like Chargois, Reed, and Vasquez.

[Guest]

Putting aside the rankings, which are arbitrary and irrelevant to what the player does on the field and where he ends up, Sickels’s comments about each player seemed very reasonable.

[dbminn]

It's true there's a gap between the players already on the Twins and the next big wave. But the rankings can be a bit deceptive. Relief pitching is the one position that will never get a high ranking. The Twins have several RP that are close to having an impact for the Twins. And it's the position where the Twins really need help.

 

Jay, Chargois, Curtiss, Reed, Burdi, Bard and Moya should all be ready to play at some point in 2018. None of them get a grade higher than B-/C+. If just two of them contribute next year they will be worth a lot more than their rankings.

 

[Taildragger8791]

 

It's true there's a gap between the players already on the Twins and the next big wave. But the rankings can be a bit deceptive. Relief pitching is the one position that will never get a high ranking. The Twins have several RP that are close to having an impact for the Twins. And it's the position where the Twins really need help.

 

Jay, Chargois, Curtiss, Reed, Burdi, Bard and Moya should all be ready to play at some point in 2018. None of them get a grade higher than B-/C+. If just two of them contribute next year they will be worth a lot more than their rankings.

 

That's largely because minor league relievers are huge question marks. They often drop off considerably or don't pan out at all despite putting up dominant numbers. Then add to that the fact that pretty much everyone on your list, while clearly talented, has serious health or control issues to get past before they'll be dependable major leaguers.

 

Personally, I wouldn't plan for any of them in 2018 considering how that strategy imploded in the first month of this past season. If a couple of them end up being available and ready then that's wonderful, I'm sure the Twins will have no problem finding a spot for them considering the turnover rate on relievers is so high anyways.

[bird]

 

That's largely because minor league relievers are huge question marks. They often drop off considerably or don't pan out at all despite putting up dominant numbers. Then add to that the fact that pretty much everyone on your list, while clearly talented, has serious health or control issues to get past before they'll be dependable major leaguers.

 

Personally, I wouldn't plan for any of them in 2018 considering how that strategy imploded in the first month of this past season. If a couple of them end up being available and ready then that's wonderful, I'm sure the Twins will have no problem finding a spot for them considering the turnover rate on relievers is so high anyways.

 

Good point. I hope they sign one RP better than anyone they had in the pen at the end of the season. Relievers are a volatile but liquid asset, so trading surplus relief help in a seller's market can be a good way to build some extra value in the system. But I also think the situation isn't as dire as is often described because of the sheer number of guys who look like they might end up being pretty good. I mean, we have two full bullpens worth of guys that might turn out fine. They're going to HAVE to plan on some of these guys panning out for them. Some were starting to already.

[old nurse]

Luis Arreaz 21 A+,  Charlie Barnes 22 A , Landon Leach, 18, Rk,  Jose Miranda, 20 Rk,  Rotevelt, 20 A Lachlan Wells 21 A+  6 players who still are very young with a C+ Grade and have time to develop.

Arias, 20, Balazovic 19,  Moran 21, Valdez18 as C level prospects still have plenty of time to develop.

That is 10 young players that have plenty of time to develop into  better players. Already somebody thinks they have a decent shot at contributing at the major league level.  Give them time. Yup wait until next year

 

[mikelink45]

This confirms my belief that Gonsalves and Romero have to be in the rotation and we should stop wishing for big FA signings.  Get the young arms in the majors. 

[kab21]

 

This confirms my belief that Gonsalves and Romero have to be in the rotation and we should stop wishing for big FA signings.  Get the young arms in the majors. 

I definitely don't see that in his comments. I see mid rotation potential and could be a #3 if healthy and should be ready sometime in 2018. With the lack of any sort of depth in the rotation I think this is a bad plan.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, these guys are depth for 2018. It's nice in that we have a fairly nice stable of young arms that we can throw at the inevitable injury (Gonsalves, Stewart, Littell, Slegers, Romero, Jorge, and maybe even Rodriguez). That gives us the option to bring one in and see if he's ready and make a quick switch if he isn't. That's nice.

 

That said, going north with a couple of those guys come spring really does hurt the depth side of things. If a guy fails, you've got less replacements and the team could easily take a step backwards in 2018. Because of the arms that are near ready, it could be that the front office might choose to find someone on a shorter contract knowing that someone will likely have proved his worth by 2019.

[mikelink45]

 

I definitely don't see that in his comments. I see mid rotation potential and could be a #3 if healthy and should be ready sometime in 2018. With the lack of any sort of depth in the rotation I think this is a bad plan.

The fun of baseball is all the differing opinions - none of which we can prove - we can only wait, but I would like to see

​Berrios

Santana

Gibson - actually I expect him, but don't necessarily want him

Gonsalves

Mejia

 

Romero the first in when the inevitable happens.  

Sleger number seven in the rotation sequence.

 

I can ride with that another year and see where all the bats and maturity develops before we spend for that "last Piece".  

 

In some ways I am concerned that their bats might not meet our expectations - Kepler regressed, can he progress?  Who is Sano - can he put it together.  Does Byron have a full season of great coming?  Is Rosario going to plateau or progress?  Is Polanco the answer?  Can Mauer continue his upsurge in his advancing years and advancing contract?

 

Lots of fuel for the hot stove and we haven't even covered the bullpen.

[howieramone2]

The point is, we were the second youngest team in baseball last season based on weighted playing time. The current farm system is very deep, with most of the future star power being teenagers. Our franchise couldn't possibly be more healthy. 

[kab21]

 

The fun of baseball is all the differing opinions - none of which we can prove - we can only wait, but I would like to see

​Berrios

Santana

Gibson - actually I expect him, but don't necessarily want him

Gonsalves

Mejia

 

Romero the first in when the inevitable happens.  

Sleger number seven in the rotation sequence.

 

Well this possible rotation greatly concerns me. I would definitely like to add one arm to the dependable top 2 of Berrios and Santana. I would also prefer quality over quantity for additions though.

[ashbury]

I would also prefer quality over quantity for additions though.

A quality arm will address the quantity concern I have with only the seven arms listed.

[kab21]

 

A quality arm will address the quantity concern I have with only the seven arms listed.

But it is meant to be that one Gerrit Cole is better than two Tyler Chatwoods. The Twins have a lot of question marks up and down their rotation but they do have depth next season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

But it is meant to be that one Gerrit Cole is better than two Tyler Chatwoods. The Twins have a lot of question marks up and down their rotation but they do have depth next season.

 

depth isn't the problem. Depth is arms you can stash in AAA. They have plenty of those guys. Their problem is arms in the rotation.

[twinsfanstreif]

The thing that sticks out to me is the lack of pitching prospects. 3 in the top 10 and they all have major question marks. There are some lottery tickets in the lower levels but not much beyond that, we really need to improve in this area. However I guess it worked for the Astros so there's that

[SF Twins Fan]

The Twins should not be going into the 2018 season expecting anything from Gonsalves, Romero, Sleger, Jorge or Stewart. This off-season they need to add a pitcher with 1 or 2 type stuff.

 

FA Pitcher / Trade

Santana

Berries

Gibson (Hopefully his second half is an indication of what's to come)

Mejia

 

There will obviously be injuries and struggles throughout the season and that's when you bring up one of the young pitchers but don't count on them to start the season.

 

[kab21]

 

depth isn't the problem. Depth is arms you can stash in AAA. They have plenty of those guys. Their problem is arms in the rotation.

Now this is just semantics. Depth could be the type of AAAA arms that the Twins have had to continually rely on in recent years. Or depth could be guys like Mejia/Gibson/Gonsalves/Romero/Littell/Jorge that actually have a good chance at MLB success. There is a big difference compared to the options the 'depth' options the Twins have had in the past.

 

I don't want to rely to heavily on any of those names mentioned but there is a good chance that 1-2 of those guys could be good #4's next season. And that is why multiple Tyler Chatwood level acquisitions don't make as much sense.

 

The Twins desperately need #2/3's though.

[srmcginnity]

To me, Lewin Diaz seems like another Kennys Vargas with the relatively low OBP at low A. That's concerning. Baddoo looks like a stud. I'm much higher on Thorpe than most. I think he'll be a reliable #3-4 with a #2 ceiling. 

[drjim]

 

To me, Lewin Diaz seems like another Kennys Vargas with the relatively low OBP at low A. That's concerning. Baddoo looks like a stud. I'm much higher on Thorpe than most. I think he'll be a reliable #3-4 with a #2 ceiling. 

 

I don't really get the Diaz love either. Minimal walk rate, meh power, no positional value.

 

With you on Thorpe, but I understand a little caution by Sickels considering the injury history.

[old nurse]

 

The fun of baseball is all the differing opinions - none of which we can prove - we can only wait, but I would like to see

​Berrios

Santana

Gibson - actually I expect him, but don't necessarily want him

Gonsalves

Mejia

 

Romero the first in when the inevitable happens.  

Sleger number seven in the rotation sequence.

 

I can ride with that another year and see where all the bats and maturity develops before we spend for that "last Piece".  

 

In some ways I am concerned that their bats might not meet our expectations - Kepler regressed, can he progress?  Who is Sano - can he put it together.  Does Byron have a full season of great coming?  Is Rosario going to plateau or progress?  Is Polanco the answer?  Can Mauer continue his upsurge in his advancing years and advancing contract?

 

Lots of fuel for the hot stove and we haven't even covered the bullpen.

Felix Jorge is number 7. Gibson is only retained if their preliminary sniffing around for trades is not encouraging. Likely a FA with upside that nobody here will be excited about so Gonsalves or Mejia are in the minors. That would be my best guess.

[Mike Sixel]

I share all y'alls feelings on Diaz, but then I've not been in love with the signing since day 1. 

[old nurse]

 

 

I don't really get the Diaz love either. Minimal walk rate, meh power, no positional value.

 

With you on Thorpe, but I understand a little caution by Sickels considering the injury history.

A BA of around .300 and the hope that power develops. Look at Rosario. Unless this year is the outlier, power develops a little later in some  Morneau  was 22 before he started crushing  Last year was really his first year of playing a full season.  Parts of his game are good for the level he was at, parts not. Welcome to the mid level prospect.

[drjim]

 

A SA of around .300 and the hope that power develops. Look at Rosario. Unless this year is the outlier, power develops a little later in some  Morneau  was 22 before he started crushing

 

I don't think a straight comparison is always the best, but both of them were 21 at Low A and Rosario had a better bb rate, hit for more power, and was much more tooled up and with more positional flexibility.

 

I would be much more into Diaz if he could play somewhere other than 1b, but he really needs to show some power to even give a second thought.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Now this is just semantics. Depth could be the type of AAAA arms that the Twins have had to continually rely on in recent years. Or depth could be guys like Mejia/Gibson/Gonsalves/Romero/Littell/Jorge that actually have a good chance at MLB success. There is a big difference compared to the options the 'depth' options the Twins have had in the past.

 

I don't want to rely to heavily on any of those names mentioned but there is a good chance that 1-2 of those guys could be good #4's next season. And that is why multiple Tyler Chatwood level acquisitions don't make as much sense.

 

The Twins desperately need #2/3's though.

 

We're on the same page...  No to the Tyler chatwoods of the world. Get a good pitcher.

 

One exception may be Mejia. I'd go north with him unless May is ready to go, though I can definitely respect burning an option on him. Gibson is the hard decision in my opinion. Not sure I'd want that question mark in the rotation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I share all y'alls feelings on Diaz, but then I've not been in love with the signing since day 1.

 

I get that, to a point. The 1B thing is definitely the downside. But he's 2 years younger than the league. He posted modest power numbers in a league that's probably a bit more favorable to pitchers than hitters. He's a bit lower on my personal list, but he's not a bad prospect either.

[JustinCB]

 

The point is, we were the second youngest team in baseball last season based on weighted playing time. The current farm system is very deep, with most of the future star power being teenagers. Our franchise couldn't possibly be more healthy. 

 

could be the Braves'

[markos]

 

A BA of around .300 and the hope that power develops. Look at Rosario. Unless this year is the outlier, power develops a little later in some  Morneau  was 22 before he started crushing  Last year was really his first year of playing a full season.  Parts of his game are good for the level he was at, parts not. Welcome to the mid level prospect.

At age 20 (same age as Diaz), Morneau had a 1.018 OPS at A, and by season's end had been promoted all the way to AA. Just looking at their stats at A while the same age, Morneau had essentially the same number of walks and home runs as Diaz despite playing in half the games.

 

Diaz in definitely outside my top-20. I think the path for him to be an above-average big leagure is extremely difficult. He is a 1B/DH, so he basically needs to be one of the top-50 hitters in all of baseball to be valuable.

[markos]

 

The point is, we were the second youngest team in baseball last season based on weighted playing time. 

I don't think this is true. According to Baseball-Reference, they were 4th youngest on the position player side and fifth oldest on the pitching side.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017.shtml