Regarding and Re-evaluating Mauer Yet Again

[DocBauer]

First and foremost, always been a big fan and appreciated him. Even defended him many times in the past, and hoped for the best post concussion/post move from catcher to 1B. I will also admit to almost hoping he would retire in the near future, (if not the recent past), to help adjust the payroll flexibility more, to not taint his past legacy as a diminished performer of his past exploits, to allow for a higher offensive performer to take his spot, and also, to just protect himself and his future. (So many injuries and multiple concussions.

 

Secondly, I wish once and for all we could just drop the whole contract thing. (This despite my payroll comment above). There is an expression I absolutely loathe...but use myself..."it is what it is." The contract happened. The money is spent. At the time, had the contract offer not been offered and signed, the Twins would have been facing an army of torches and pitchforks. Also, had the concussions not happened, the entire situation would have made mostly, if not completely, moot.

 

Something very interesting has been happening with home town boy Joe Wonder. Whether it is continued maturation from him, better overall health, a distancing from the concussions, or some combination, he is turning in to a very good and very productive player...again...right before our eyes at age 34.

 

While I think there is certainly debate about how best to use him, batting order wise, and it has always been a fairly easy arguement/debate/frustration about someone so big and athletic to not hit with more power, or his seeming inability to pull the ball more, or his acceptance of allowing first pitch fastballs to pass him by in his approach, Mauer may be re-inventing himself.

 

The proverbial cliff for Joe came in 2013. While not the MVP player he was in 2009 by any means, he was still an outstanding catcher, still hitting .300 with double and occasional HR power, had a .400 OB and .880 OPS before an August concussion seemed to derail his career.

 

His numbers for the next three years following:

 

AVG OB SLG OPS R 2B 3B HR RBI

2014: .277/ .361/ .371/ .732/ 60/ 27/ 2/ 4/ 55

2015: .265/ .338/ .380/ .718/ 69/ 34/ 2/ 10/ 66

2016: .261/ .363/ .389/ .752/ 68/ 22/ 4/ 11/ 49

 

Overall, his numbers are not abysmal. There is a respectable hitting and OB quotient there, with double digit HR years twice, but the doubles power severely declined 2 of the 3 years, and the decline...from his previous hitting ability is precipitous. Roughly figured, he was previously a career .300 hitter, .400OB, .470SLG, .800+OPS performer. Forgetting his tremendous previous production, his numbers from 2014-2016 would still be pretty solid for a catcher. (Or even a CF or middle infielder, which he is not). And while I still maintain there are many ways to build a roster, and a lineup that works...weaker offensively at a certain spot, but stronger than average at another to counter balance...the truth is Mauer was still a shadow of the player he was.

 

But a funny thing happened on the way the Forum/ballpark. Joe has become one of the best defensive 1B in all of baseball. And I don't think that is hyperbole or overstatement in any way, especially considering quality defense has always been important, but also plays an important part in this current team's resurgence. I am borrowing now from the Pioneer Press, he is riding an 11 game hitting streak, has hit .438 over his past 22 games, and after going 4-4 in the romp over Kansas City Saturday night, left the game early without a chance to go 5-5. (Of note, his last 5-5 game was in 2013 just days before his last concussion).

 

At close of business Saturday night, after the romp over the Royals, with 27 games left to play in the regular season, the potential Gold Glove Mauer was hitting thusly:

 

AVG OB SLG OPS R 2B 3B HR RBI

2017: .303/ .384/ .417/ .801/ 58/ 29/ 1/ 6/ 56

 

He could slump, he could maintain. Regardless, his numbers are much closer to his outstanding previous career norms than anything we've seen the previous 3 season's. With 27 games left to play, he is in line to meet or exceed any of the previous 3 season's in regard to R, RBI or power numbers. He will never again be his MVP self...but we already knew that...and he will never again bring his offensive value back to being a catcher. (Again, we already knew that). But he may be, right before our eyes, re-inventing/re-juvinating himself as a productive ballplayer.

 

Now, is he also a candidate to suddenly regress in 2018 as a 35yo? Absolutely. But isn't it also interesting and intriguing that healthy and a few years removed from concussions he seems to be finding his stroke again and is actually improving as the season gets longer?

 

Look, I know there are questions to be answered yet. And chief amongst them, IMO, is where he should hit. Deft of speed, and with such a talented and emerging lineup, where should he hit? Much like Brian Downing or Wade Boggs back in the day, and others since, should he hit 1 or 2? Or still having somewhat limited power and no speed, again with this emerging lineup, is he better off hitting near the bottom of the order to flip things over?

 

I just think we all need to take another look at what Mauer is, what he is doing, and what he may offer for next year...and yes...for what he could potentially offer for another season or two beyond that.

[Major League Ready]

I have to admit I am surprised to see this resurgence of the old Joe after 4 mediocre years.  He has been a very important part of this team being in contention for a wildcard spot and his defensive has been stellar.  He deserves a gold glove this year.

[Bill Brown69]

I have 2 things. If Mauer can go 40 for 100 (40 for 105 in his last 30) he will finish the season at .321. I looked all this up hoping there was a way for him to win another batting title but even if Altuve went 17 for 89(round numbers to divide) he will finish at .333. No player in history has ever went 50 for 100 but that would put Mauer at .340.

 

#2 Mauer gets a lot of blame for not hitting home runs from a position deemed to be a power position. We however have a second baseman that hits like he plays first. Their 1638 combined OPS is higher than the Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees or Mariners starting 1b,2b combo, along with others that aren't in the playoff hunt.

 

I for 1 am rooting for Mauer to win another batting title next year, although from maybe a different spot in the order.

[Shane Wahl]

Great article. The man is key to the team going forward with all of these young dudes. 

[twinsnorth49]

I'm sure people will still find something to complain about with Mauer, just because he's Mauer. Fact is though, he's playing his best baseball in years when it actually matters for a change. His play over the last month is a big factor in this team being where it is.

 

Fully functioning brains are good.

[USAFChief]

 

I'm sure people will still find something to complain about with Mauer, just because he's Mauer. Fact is though, he's playing his best baseball in years when it actually matters for a change. His play over the last month is a big factor in this team being where it is.

Fully functioning brains are good.

He is.  Bully for him.  One thing that might be helping is he has seemed to me to make a conscious effort to turn on pitches earlier in counts.  

 

Not sure how that invalidates the complaints when he wasn't playing good baseball, but let's hope he keeps it up.

[KGB]

He is.  Bully for him.  One thing that might be helping is he has seemed to me to make a conscious effort to turn on pitches earlier in counts.  

 

Not sure how that invalidates the complaints when he wasn't playing good baseball, but let's hope he keeps it up.

I this helps explain the reduction in strike outs. His strike out rate is his lowest since 2011. In fact, this year would be very similar to 2014, if he didn't drop his strike out rate.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He is. Bully for him. One thing that might be helping is he has seemed to me to make a conscious effort to turn on pitches earlier in counts.

 

Not sure how that invalidates the complaints when he wasn't playing good baseball, but let's hope he keeps it up.

I think this is a side effect of Mauer seeing the ball better. His hard hit rate, swinging strike, contact rate, etc are at pre-concussion levels (a few are at highs Mauer hasn't hit since 2010).

 

Joe wasn't completely averse to pulling the ball on occasion before the concussion. In fact, his oppo numbers this season are still higher than his pre-concussion days.

 

I suspect this season is the result of Joe finally returning to his previous self, only four years older so not quite as dominant.

 

I'm still baffled how some don't believe Mauer's rapid decline was mostly due to that damned concussion. It appears Joe is following the same track as Morneau, only three years later.

[The Wise One]

 

I think this is a side effect of Mauer seeing the ball better. His hard hit rate, swinging strike, contact rate, etc are at pre-concussion levels (a few are at highs Mauer hasn't hit since 2010).

Joe wasn't completely averse to pulling the ball on occasion before the concussion. In fact, his oppo numbers this season are still higher than his pre-concussion days.

I suspect this season is the result of Joe finally returning to his previous self, only four years older so not quite as dominant.

I'm still baffled how some don't believe Mauer's rapid decline was mostly due to that damned concussion. It appears Joe is following the same track as Morneau, only three years later.

If there is no blood or deformed body parts it is hard for the fan to understand medical issues.  Neurology is the one of the least understood medical disciplines in terms of outcomes. Studying concussions is fairly new. The money in sports and the long term damage that people are finally connecting are driving it, 

[amjgt]

Maybe I'm just not remembering correctly, but these big defensive shifts weren't a thing in 2010. Seems to me that they really ramped up in 2013/14 or so. I've always felt that the Mauer shift played a big part (along with of course the concussion) in the decline we've seen in Joe's numbers

[jimmer]

 

Maybe I'm just not remembering correctly, but these big defensive shifts weren't a thing in 2010. Seems to me that they really ramped up in 2013/14 or so. I've always felt that the Mauer shift played a big part (along with of course the concussion) in the decline we've seen in Joe's numbers

That and the fact that the strike zone the umpires have been calling steadily expanded in the last 6,7 years. For free swingers, it's no biggy.  For players with exact eyes, having the called strike zone expand yearly after it being mostly the same your whole adult life can be a problem.

[USAFChief]

That and the fact that the strike zone the umpires have been calling steadily expanded in the last 6,7 years. For free swingers, it's no biggy.  For players with exact eyes, having the called strike zone expand yearly can be a problem.

Seems like an easy fix, for hitters with "exact eyes." Adjust.

[mikelink45]

I have no opinion on this except to be happy that Joe is having a really good year and that is great.  Of course he will be in the Twins HOF, but probably not Cooperstown and that is okay.  If he has figured out how to work with what he can do and if he can rise above his concussions that is great.

When we have a better 1B player he should be replaced.  Right now we do not and it is good to have Joe in the lineup.  Now if we just put him in the right place in the line up.  I know people do not like the term Clutch, but he is seventh among the team batters in RBIs and he has been in 3/4 position for most of the year.  Buxton in number 8, followed by Castro, and is moving up quickly towards Mauer's numbers.  

 

On the other side Mauer is number one in OBP which means he should be 1 or 2 in the lineup.  while Dozier who is 4th can take the other place in the lineup.  

 

Let's hope for the best for Joe and watch for the replacement player that will be worthy of taking his place. 

[jimmer]

This year, Mauer has batted 2nd more than any other spot in the lineup (sporting an OPS of .823). When batting 3rd, he has an OPS of .806.  He certainly has no business batting cleanup.

 

I think batting 2nd is where he should bat most of the time (which he has), though he is batting .321/.448/.425 with RISP.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe I'm just not remembering correctly, but these big defensive shifts weren't a thing in 2010. Seems to me that they really ramped up in 2013/14 or so. I've always felt that the Mauer shift played a big part (along with of course the concussion) in the decline we've seen in Joe's numbers

Shifts and the strike zone have probably (definitely?) contributed to Mauer's struggles but they don't explain a massive .120 OPS drop or the fact that Joe neither hits the hard as hard nor as often since the concussion. A shift might be worth a handful of OPS points but it doesn't explain how a guy has a drop of over 10% in hard hit balls.

 

And Mauer's decline wasn't gradual as teams figured out an approach one at a time. It was "August 2013, Joe is an .870 OPS player" to "April 2014, Joe is a .730 OPS player". Baseball is more gradual than that. 30 teams don't figure out the exact same thing at the exact same time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This year, Mauer has batted 2nd more than any other spot in the lineup (sporting an OPS of .823). When batting 3rd, he has an OPS of .806.  He certainly has no business batting cleanup.

 

I think batting 2nd is where he should bat most of the time (which he has), though he is batting .321/.448/.425 with RISP.

Mauer is perfect for the second spot, meh for the third. With all that OPS coming from OBP and singles, you want a guy who either gets on base or advances runners.

 

Now if only we could get Dozier where he belongs.

[jimmer]

 

Mauer is perfect for the second spot, meh for the third. With all that OPS coming from OBP and singles, you want a guy who either gets on base or advances runners.

 

Now if only we could get Dozier where he belongs.

Like I said, the #2 spot is where he belongs most of the time (which means, for me, when we have our regular lineup fully healthy and on the field).

 

In the last month (28 days) he has played in 25 games, started 23, and is batting .402/.440/.539.

 

I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do next year with Molitor smartly continuing to make him take days off (to stay healthy).  125-130 starts is about right.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Like I said, the #2 spot is where he belongs most of the time (which means, for me, when we have our regular lineup fully healthy and on the field).

Oh, I know, just agreeing with you.

[jimmer]

 

And Mauer's decline wasn't gradual as teams figured out an approach one at a time. It was "August 2013, Joe is an .870 OPS player" to "April 2014, Joe is a .730 OPS player". Baseball is more gradual than that. 30 teams don't figure out the exact same thing at the exact same time.

You have the concussion, the shifts and the expanded strike zone.  For me, it's obvious the concussion was the main issue.  But baseball is a game of inches and the shifts and expanded called strike zone have been a contributing factor.

[DocBauer]

I think Maker's spot in the lineup is a very open debate, and one not easily answered. But it's also true of a lot of guys in the lineup. It does seem he should be hitting second. And I also have trouble with Dozier hitting 1st, but he does perform well there, and who else should hit there? And if you move Mauer to the top, who hits second? With Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Polanco all continuing to improve and mash, a ton of scenarios play out in my head.

 

It's actually kind of a nice problem to have.

 

But I do think if Joe can maintain what he's doing, there is real value at the top of the lineup. But even if he keeps this up, and the kids continue to grow and mash, I still wonder about him low in the order, providing protection and OB for those in front of him, and to help set up the top of the order behind him. Especially if Dozier continues to his 1st. He needs guys OB in front of him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You have the concussion, the shifts and the expanded strike zone.  For me, it's obvious the concussion was the main issue.  But baseball is a game of inches and the shifts and expanded called strike zone have been a contributing factor.

Agreed. In no way do I intend to say that the concussion was the only reason but in my mind, it's obviously the biggest. Mauer missed ~40 games and an offseason because of the concussion. That's around seven months. While the shift and strike zone probably sapped some of his offensive might, that's not much time. Teams and MLB in general don't move that quickly on something and certainly not to the point where Mauer lost a whopping 150 points of OPS.

 

My opinion is that those kinds of changes in MLB strategy usually hide behind the veil of aging. They're subtle, the kind of thing where a guy might lose 20-30 OPS points a season over 3-4 seasons as adjustments are made. They can be mistaken for a guy exiting his prime and getting old.

 

On the other hand, it's damned near impossible to explain away 150 OPS points in just seven months, especially if there's an injury involved and the player's peripherals nosedive in exactly the ways you'd expect with such an injury (stops hitting ball hard, misses on more swings, etc).

[spinowner]

 

 

it's damned near impossible to explain away 150 OPS points in just seven months, especially if there's an injury involved and the player's peripherals nosedive in exactly the ways you'd expect with such an injury (stops hitting ball hard, misses on more swings, etc).

You and I and a few others have been banging our heads against a brick wall (unfortunate metaphor intended) about the concussion issue for a long time. I will never understand how anyone could believe that the astonishing, precipitous decline in his stats after the concussion was due to anything else.

[Jham]

It seemed to me that Mauer's bat speed slowed.  He appeared to have to start earlier and guess more.  I assumed this was part of the natural aging process and byproduct of an inside out swing that allows the ball to travel deep.  

In retrospect, I think the starting early and guessing more (striking out more) was a byproduct of the shifting and a conscious attempt to pull the ball more.  I've also noticed that Mauer's pull swing has tended to be a power swing which he does not execute very well.  In his HR derby attempt, he did not try to go oppo as expected, but instead pulled low liners to right in a pretty poor showing.  In other words, he overswung.  The muscling up caused a decline in bat speed, exacerbating the problem.

This year, as others have pointed out, he has gone back to stroking the ball smoothly to center and left.  BUT he also seems to smoothly pull the ball this year.  Fewer HR onto the plaza (any?), but more doubles into the corner and line drive singles vs. easy grounders.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You and I and a few others have been banging our heads against a brick wall (unfortunate metaphor intended) about the concussion issue for a long time. I will never understand how anyone could believe that the astonishing, precipitous decline in his stats after the concussion was due to anything else.

I think it has to do more with a person's perception of Mauer than Mauer himself. He can be an aggravating player at times, taking the first pitch so often even Wade Boggs screams "SWING DAMN IT" at his television. Couple that with Joe's large frame, flat swing, and opposite field approach and there are times when even the staunchest Mauer defender groans during his plate appearances.

 

If a person didn't like Mauer's approach and believed Mauer succeeded in spite of that approach, it's easier to rationalize "the rest of baseball caught up to him" instead of believing "he's no longer good because he took a baseball to the face", despite the baseball to the face being a clearcut example of Occam's Razor.

[D. Hocking]

 

I will never understand how anyone could believe that the astonishing, precipitous decline in his stats after the concussion was due to anything else.

 

Because of what he is paid he should be able to play and fight through a brain injury.

[spinowner]

 

I think it has to do more with a person's perception of Mauer than Mauer himself. He can be an aggravating player at times, taking the first pitch so often even Wade Boggs screams "SWING DAMN IT" at his television. Couple that with Joe's large frame, flat swing, and opposite field approach and there are times when even the staunchest Mauer defender groans during his plate appearances.

 

If a person didn't like Mauer's approach and believed Mauer succeeded in spite of that approach, it's easier to rationalize "the rest of baseball caught up to him" instead of believing "he's no longer good because he took a baseball to the face", despite the baseball to the face being a clearcut example of Occam's Razor.

Great minds think alike. I was actually going to cite Occam's Razor in my post that preceded this one.

[70charger]

Because of what he is paid he should be able to play and fight through a brain injury.

/s

 

You dropped this...

[Ultima Ratio]

 

Because of what he is paid he should be able to play and fight through a brain injury.

Finally, someone says what we're all thinking.

[Mr. Brooks]

I guess I don't understand what you guys are getting at.

Does a player suddenly become off limits to criticism if they suffer a concussion?

 

I never spent too much time debating the "why" behind the decline, because the "why" didn't really matter much when it came to my criticisms.

 

(Money was never a criticism of mine. The contract was fair and necessary when offered. )

[KGB]

[quote name="Brock Beauchamp" post="67

I'm still baffled how some don't believe Mauer's rapid decline was mostly due to that damned concussion. It appears Joe is following the same track as Morneau, only three years later.

 

If any other player was 40 points higher than his career average BABIP, many posters here would be posting about how he was going to drop. But with Mauer, when he a career high .383 BABIP in 2013 and falls back to his career average in 2014, the only explanation can be a concussion. That's what I find so baffling.

 

If you facture in the higher BABIP in 2012 & 2013, the decline is not rapid.