Article: Twins Trade Pieces Not That Valuable

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I was hoping they'd trade three guys: Kintzler (no brainer), Santana (because I think he's topped out) and Eduardo Escobar. Escobar is arbitration-eligible this offseason and I would've thought he'd be a great pickup for a contender needing some versatility with pop in the bat. As much as I love him as a team guy, there are replacements available (Adrianza and Vielma, to name two) at a much lower cost.

I thought Esco might be going elsewhere, too.

However, Adrainza is having a career year at the plate and we don't know if we can count on him to hit well again next year. Almost no one expects Vielma to hit well in MLB.

So if we traded Esco now and Dozier in the off-season we are suddenly in a MI crunch. Help is coming, but I don't believe it will be here early next year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yes, they do. And I understand this idea is likely what wins the argument for a guy like Gordon (top prospect who you want to come up and stay).

 

Moves like this are made all the time though. Depends if you care about burning an option in Spring Training the next year if you plan to start them back in the minors.

 

Exactly, there is no reason to put Gordon on the 40 man now unless the expectation is that he will be in the majors next season. Since it's likely he will be in AAA, you leave him off the 40 man as there's no risk to rule V.

 

This type of options management is how guys end up out of options while still developing (see Arcia for example). An early add means the org is expecting said rookie to be on an MLB roster.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exactly, there is no reason to put Gordon on the 40 man now unless the expectation is that he will be in the majors next season. Since it's likely he will be in AAA, you leave him off the 40 man as there's no risk to rule V.

 

This type of options management is how guys end up out of options while still developing (see Arcia for example). An early add means the org is expecting said rookie to be on an MLB roster.

 

I expect him sometime next year, not sure when though.

[Ryan Atkins]

 

I like Gordon, but I'm not quite sure he's ready just yet. Just my 2 cents, especially with Polanco struggling.

 

Gordon/Polanco as starting middle infielders might be punting on 2018.

 

There is no logjam until Gordon proves it in meaningful games against top competition. If that were to happen the Escobar might be the casualty.

 

It's a long ways from a logjam at this point. I personally hope all three perform enough to make it a decision worth pondering.

 

All great points. I don't understand the zeal for trading Brian Dozier. As others have pointed out, there isn't much of a void at 2B across the league right now so demand is low and return would likely be disappointing. Dodgers wouldn't budge, in part, because they weren't competing with anyone else for Dozier. Meanwhile, I too don't believe there is a logjam at 2B in the Twins organization either--certainly not yet.

 

There does seem to be a budding logjam in the OF with the emergence of Granite. It could be argued that we now have 4 everyday OF for 3 positions: Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, and Granite. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This type of options management is how guys end up out of options while still developing (see Arcia for example). An early add means the org is expecting said rookie to be on an MLB roster.

Arcia wasn't technically an "early add" -- he was added in November 2011 to protect him from that year's Rule 5 draft. (Although his selection would have perhaps been unlikely that year.)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Arcia wasn't technically an "early add" -- he was added in November 2011 to protect him from that year's Rule 5 draft. (Although his selection would have perhaps been unlikely that year.)

 

I'm confusing him with someone else then.  I thought he was added in 2013 and then promptly sent down... maybe I'm thinking of Buxton.

 

My point though is that you only get 3 options, adding someone early with no intent of putting them in the majors is a great way to force yourself into a bad situation

[Taildragger8791]

 

All great points. I don't understand the zeal for trading Brian Dozier. As others have pointed out, there isn't much of a void at 2B across the league right now so demand is low and return would likely be disappointing. Dodgers wouldn't budge, in part, because they weren't competing with anyone else for Dozier. Meanwhile, I too don't believe there is a logjam at 2B in the Twins organization either--certainly not yet.

 

There does seem to be a budding logjam in the OF with the emergence of Granite. It could be argued that we now have 4 everyday OF for 3 positions: Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, and Granite. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out.

 

I totally understand the zeal - a lot of people recognize that he's the most immediately replaceable veteran on the roster that actually performs at a league average level while also being on a reasonable contract. A slugging 2nd baseman is a luxury on a losing team anyways. That should have made him the best trade asset we've had in a long tim but unfortunately the demand just wasn't there. Oh, and the 2B logjam will be there starting sometime next year when Polanco, Gordon, Dozier, Escobar, and Adrianza are all trying to find playing time.

 

I don't see a logjam in the outfield yet. Granite is likely a 4th outfielder so he fits in just fine. Grossman is an OF by technicality only, he doesn't play out there any more than necessary. There aren't any OF prospects beating down the door next year, and starting in 2019 we'll have an opening at 1B to rotate guys through as well. I see that situation working itself out with minimal pain.

Edited August 1, 2017 by Taildragger8791

[Seth Stohs]

 

No, they don't have a lot of tough 40 man decisions. I just don't buy that for one minute. Almost no player of value has been found in the rule V draft since MLB changed the rules. They lost at least 5 guys on the 25 man roster right now, and there are some easy choices to drop off the 40 man. Not even close to hard decisions.

 

That's because they've been added to a 40-man roster already. So, it's obviously an important thing. And also, I think that they'll give some other guys chances the rest of the way. Adding Gordon just doesn't make any sense right now. If you were to say, Add Gonsalves, I'm on bored because he can start and they need starters. I probably still wouldn't for a few more weeks because I would not want to have to use up an option year. But at shortstop, they've got to figure out what they've got in Polanco and Adrianza since both are out of options). 

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's because they've been added to a 40-man roster already. So, it's obviously an important thing. And also, I think that they'll give some other guys chances the rest of the way. Adding Gordon just doesn't make any sense right now. If you were to say, Add Gonsalves, I'm on bored because he can start and they need starters. I probably still wouldn't for a few more weeks because I would not want to have to use up an option year. But at shortstop, they've got to figure out what they've got in Polanco and Adrianza since both are out of options). 

 

that's a totally different argument, one I am not opposed to. but the 40 man "squeeze"? not a real issue imo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm confusing him with someone else then. I thought he was added in 2013 and then promptly sent down... maybe I'm thinking of Buxton.

Got it. FWIW, Buxton wasn't sent down promptly either (although maybe he should have been ) -- he got injured after 2 weeks, then did a rehab stint at AAA, and was only optioned for like a week after that rehab stint. Didn't burn an option year in 2015.

Edited August 1, 2017 by spycake

[caninatl04]

 

Shoot, the Strib and even the Facebook comments are usually a cesspool of overreaction.   I used to take a peak at them because I'm a masochist and like to get up in arms about their up-in-armness.   I rarely to it now.

 

Not to say there isn't overreaction here, but it's far less exaggerated and much more informed.

You don't agree we should have received Bryce Harper and Geo Gonzales back for Kinzler???

[Thrylos]

 

The title of the article should be we value our trade chips here more than others. To say they are not that valuable is wrong as Dozier and Santana are both 3 plus War players.

 

3 plus WAR in their dreams, or in the past. 

 

After 103 games:  Dozier 1.3 fWAR, projects to 2.0 fWAR for the season, Ervin Santana 1.1 fWAR, projects to 1.7 fWAR for the season

 

They are 2 WAR players who are aging and getting worse.  They both need to go.

 

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

All great points. I don't understand the zeal for trading Brian Dozier.

 

Here are a few reasons:

 

1. So they can get something for him before he walks as a free agent

2. So that they get someone at 2B who will reach his prime when the core of the team does

3. Because he is getting worse with both the bat and the glove, and is past his prime

4. Because some one else at  second base will give the Twins a better possibility of winning

5. Because getting 5K a day and not getting benched the next does not teach his teammates a lesson

6. Because he is an almost near collision on any infield fly ball

7. Because he is hitting .217/.311/.329 with men on and he his on pace for a 2 fWAR (or less) season; and he is getting older (and worse)

8. Were he a "leader", the team would not had lost 100+ in his career season.

9. Because he does not close the door to the bathroom when he does his business, and he makes it a point to make his private business public, in general

 

Want any more?

Edited August 2, 2017 by Thrylos

[Thrylos]

 

Kintzler is a solid journeyman relief pitcher

 

 

He is either "solid" or a "journeyman".  Can't be both.  I'd take door number 2 and say that he just got lucky and will get exposed big time.

[beckmt]

The valuable trade pieces are pitching.  Twins do not have it at this time.  Now is the time to see what we have.  Given that another week will not matter.  Twins have about 2 weeks to see if they can become relevant again or to unload other pieces.  

We also have 4 middle infielders for 3 positions and 5 outfielders for 4 positions.  And 2 corner infielders and 2 catchers.  That makes 13.  Molitor seems to like 13 man pitching staffs.  Something has to give in this logjam, my issue is that the odd person out might be Rosario, who would not fit with Molitor's ideas.  

[LaBombo]

Alternative article title: "Twins still a pretty bad team despite record".

 

If three of your five best players by WAR don't have significant trade value despite being on team-friendly contracts, then the question of whether or not your team is an over-achieving mediocrity that needs to trade them for the best reasonable offer just... sort of works itself out, doesn't it?

[twinsguy45]

The most fascinating sentence in the OP "the Twins will be closer to contending in 2018". Is that a guarantee? We've heard "next year" for years. Are we the new Cubs?

[kab21]

 

Here are a few reasons:

 

1. So they can get something for him before he walks as a free agent

2. So that they get someone at 2B who will reach his prime when the core of the team does

3. Because he is getting worse with both the bat and the glove, and is past his prime

4. Because some one else at  second base will give the Twins a better possibility of winning

5. Because getting 5K a day and not getting benched the next does not teach his teammates a lesson

6. Because he is an almost near collision on any infield fly ball

7. Because he is hitting .217/.311/.329 with men on and he his on pace for a 2 fWAR (or less) season; and he is getting older (and worse)

8. Were he a "leader", the team would not had lost 100+ in his career season.

9. Because he does not close the door to the bathroom when he does his business, and he makes it a point to make his private business public, in general

 

Want any more?

Which player at 2B gives the team a better chance at winning? Is this the player that has an OPS of .570 right now that you claimed would outhit Dozier this year?

 

I am all for trading Dozier but I am not doing for 25 cents (or less) on the dollar just because he is a FA in 1.5 seasons.

 

FWIW - I also like Polanco long term but right now and next year Dozier is the better player.

[drivlikejehu]

 

The most fascinating sentence in the OP "the Twins will be closer to contending in 2018". Is that a guarantee? We've heard "next year" for years. Are we the new Cubs?

 

What credible outside person or Twins official has been saying 'next year' for years?

[Mike Sixel]

 

What credible outside person or Twins official has been saying 'next year' for years?

 

given that Ryan said they weren't rebuilding, no one with teh Twins?

 

so, if not next year, when? which next year is it, because on this site, the goal posts move back every single year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm confusing him with someone else then. I thought he was added in 2013 and then promptly sent down... maybe I'm thinking of Buxton.

 

My point though is that you only get 3 options, adding someone early with no intent of putting them in the majors is a great way to force yourself into a bad situation

polanco...

[ahart10]

A Dozier trade isn't only about what's gotten in return. He, Mauer, Perkins, and Hughes are the last of the old guard losing Twins. Imho getting rid of them will be the final stage of the rebuild and the first to competing.

[Ryan Atkins]

 

Here are a few reasons:

 

1. So they can get something for him before he walks as a free agent

2. So that they get someone at 2B who will reach his prime when the core of the team does

3. Because he is getting worse with both the bat and the glove, and is past his prime

4. Because some one else at  second base will give the Twins a better possibility of winning

5. Because getting 5K a day and not getting benched the next does not teach his teammates a lesson

6. Because he is an almost near collision on any infield fly ball

7. Because he is hitting .217/.311/.329 with men on and he his on pace for a 2 fWAR (or less) season; and he is getting older (and worse)

8. Were he a "leader", the team would not had lost 100+ in his career season.

9. Because he does not close the door to the bathroom when he does his business, and he makes it a point to make his private business public, in general

 

Want any more?

 

Which player at 2B gives the team a better chance at winning? Is this the player that has an OPS of .570 right now that you claimed would outhit Dozier this year?

 

I am all for trading Dozier but I am not doing for 25 cents (or less) on the dollar just because he is a FA in 1.5 seasons.

 

FWIW - I also like Polanco long term but right now and next year Dozier is the better player.

 

 

Correct. I was going to break apart each point, but this post is sufficient.

 

They tried to trade Dozier when his value was higher than it is now and all they could get was Jose De Leon who has not pitched well this year and has been injured. That would have just been dandy.

 

We'll see what happens. Dozier is not in the lineup today and Twins brass will surely try to get him pushed through waivers so they may test the waters again before August ends.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm confusing him with someone else then.  I thought he was added in 2013 and then promptly sent down... maybe I'm thinking of Buxton.

 

 

polanco...

 

No, Polanco was not an "early add" either -- he was added to the 40-man in November 2013 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, just like Kepler and Vargas that same year.  (Polanco's lack of an option this year, as compared to Vargas, relates to him spending ~3 too many days on a rookie league roster in 2010...)

[Thrylos]

 

Which player at 2B gives the team a better chance at winning?

 

Escobar (102 vs 101 OPS+ total, .336/.377/.575 vs. .215/.309/.326 with men on.)

 

Polanco until further notice is a SS.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Thrylos

[Richie the Rally Goat]

No, Polanco was not an "early add" either -- he was added to the 40-man in November 2013 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, just like Kepler and Vargas that same year. (Polanco's lack of an option this year, as compared to Vargas, relates to him spending ~3 too many days on a rookie league roster in 2010...)

oh yeah! Result is pretty much the same, but how he got there was the question

[kab21]

 

Escobar (102 vs 101 OPS+ total, .336/.377/.575 vs. .215/.309/.326 with men on.)

 

Polanco until further notice is a SS.

Really? A lineup of Polanco/Escobar is better than a lineup of Dozier/Escobar as far as current skill is concerned? 

 

And your basis is clutch stats? 

[kab21]

Dozier with his 9th HR in his streaky August (1.122 OPS and going higher after the DH). He is definitely the best MI player on this team and shouldn't have ever been considered an option to bench in favor of either Polanco (also smoking hot right now) or Escobar (still very good).