2017 MLB draft thread

[InfraRen]

 

booo...but, hey, we'll see McKay here in 4-5 years....

Yeah, I get the fact McKay is a safer pick but I'm not a huge fan of going safe at #1. Swing for the fences, and there isn't a more perfect prospect to do that with than Greene.

 

All that said, McKay sounds like he could be pretty good one day. Law said on a vid on ESPN other day that if he focuses on pitching he can be a "star."

[Hrbowski]

I have heard that they love Pavin Smith, so I am not surprised about a potential deal there. On a side note, I don't think that they like Lewis that much.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Before the season started, I was procrastinating at work by looking at past Twins draftees on Baseball Reference. Then, because I really did not want to work on what I was supposed to, I started making this chart tracking all the Twins draft choices since 2000 that have accumulated at least 2.0 bWAR in their careers. Needless to say, I expected to find more (29 total over 17 drafts) but I don't know if that was a reasonable expectation or not.  

 

You'll see that the list contains several players that were late round draftees that the Twins likely understood they wouldn't or couldn't sign. They've accumulated all of their career bWAR for teams that drafted them in later years. I included these players for completeness but if you strip them out the list drops to 22 players. Anyway, I thought others on the Board might be interested in this chart and decided posting it on this thread was best because anyone reading this post is at least interested in the draft. My apologies about posting the chart as an attachment. I just cannot figure out a way to post charts and tables that hold their formatting (I am sure its pure user error):

 

 Twins Draft WAR.pdf

[Tom Froemming]

Interesting that Greene trying to get himself dropped down to the Padres is out there. Obviously the slot is lower, but if San Diego knows that's where he wants to be that gives them additional negotiating leverage too, right? Seems like a poor strategy on his end.

[Lonestar]

There is a big variety in hitter quality in high school. I am not on the Greene bandwagon, but facing hitters in Canada is a lot easier than facing hitters in South Cal.

That's true. It's also true that Taillon was born in Canada. But he pitched high school ball for The Woodlands in Texas.

[InfraRen]

From our pal Jeremy:

 

I still think it. McKay had an upside of a top-of-the-rotation starter. 

Ryan @r_mack
Replying to @jeremynygaard
you've thought Twins draft Greene, right? Also, what is McKay's upside?

[Hrbowski]

 

That's true. It's also true that Taillon was born in Canada. But he pitched high school ball for The Woodlands in Texas.

Duh. Greene still faced better hitters than either Bundy or Taillon.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Interesting that Greene trying to get himself dropped down to the Padres is out there. Obviously the slot is lower, but if San Diego knows that's where he wants to be that gives them additional negotiating leverage too, right? Seems like a poor strategy on his end.

Well, he's from SoCal, so perhaps he's a Padres fan.  He's going to get a big check regardless, so why not go to your favorite team too?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, he's from SoCal, so perhaps he's a Padres fan.  He's going to get a big check regardless, so why not go to your favorite team too?

 

And stay close to home. And live in San Diego full time at some point...

[markos]

 

booo...but, hey, we'll see McKay here in 4-5 years....

Are their any scenarios that you would support not taking Greene? I've been trying to think through some options, and I think it will be hard, risky, but not impossible for the Twins to come away with two top-10 talents. For example, they pick, say, Beck at 1-1 and offer $5.5M (roughly #5 money). If my back-of-the-envelope calculations are correct, they should be be able to scrape together another $5.5M at #35 if needed (combination of underslot at #37 and paying some bonus pool tax). Then they could convince some (all?) of the top college guys (like Wright, Bukauskas, Smith, Faedo, and Kendall) to demand top-5 money and threaten to go back to school (not unlike Mark Appel). BA's mock has Faedo going #10 to the Angels, and that spot only has a slot value of $4.3M. Beck+Faedo would be a pretty good haul.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Are their any scenarios that you would support not taking Greene? I've been trying to think through some options, and I think it will be hard, risky, but not impossible for the Twins to come away with two top-10 talents. For example, they pick, say, Beck at 1-1 and offer $5.5M (roughly #5 money). If my back-of-the-envelope calculations are correct, they should be be able to scrape together another $5.5M at #35 if needed (combination of underslot at #37 and paying some bonus pool tax). Then they could convince some (all?) of the top college guys (like Wright, Bukauskas, Smith, Faedo, and Kendall) to demand top-5 money and threaten to go back to school (not unlike Mark Appel). BA's mock has Faedo going #10 to the Angels, and that spot only has a slot value of $4.3M. Beck+Faedo would be a pretty good haul.

 

I'd actually not rip them for taking McKay if they think he's a legit star pitcher, which they might. 

 

It will be harder to play the game, though, because the difference in pools is smaller, and I think there is a team with three picks in front of them, or something like that.

 

I'd rather they just take the best player they like the most. If they pull off something else, and they do sign another top 15 player, then I'll compliment them if the first guy picked is still a legit top 5 guy. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Interesting that Greene trying to get himself dropped down to the Padres is out there. Obviously the slot is lower, but if San Diego knows that's where he wants to be that gives them additional negotiating leverage too, right? Seems like a poor strategy on his end.

AJ Preller, the Padres GM, has almost certainly agreed to pay Greene top pick money.  He'll burn a few later picks and give Greene something around 7m, maybe even higher.  BA (I think) was reporting that Preller was doing everything he can do get Greene to drop which basically means promising Greene a lot of money.

[gunnarthor]

How is Pavin Smith looking so far?  Anyone see any scouting reports on him?

[Hrbowski]

 

How is Pavin Smith looking so far?  Anyone see any scouting reports on him?

Really good. Here is the link to my report on him, for anyone who hasn't seen it:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/531/entry-8840-pavin-smith-2017-mlb-draft/

[InfraRen]

Listened to BA's podcast today from Manuel/Cooper:

 

McKay (11 min or so):

 

"He's ready now to pitch in a big league rotation." Talks about great fastball location.

 

Also said he's up there with Pavin as best hitter in draft. Wild.

 

Said in a draft like '14 McKay may go around 7 or so, compared to Nola. But he'll go 1/2 in this draft.

 

Also had a long segment talking about the major risks of HS players.

 

Greene (38 min or so):

 

Didn't hear much on him, but:

 

"Hunter Greene wants to try and control where this draft goes."

 

It's here:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/viewpoint/mock-draft-podcast-april-21/#oAhplJCHc83WVi4x.97

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Listened to BA's podcast today-

 

Some stuff on McKay, around 11 minute mark start:

 

"He's ready now to pitch in a big league rotation."

 

Also said he's up there with Pavin as best hitter in draft. Wild.

 

Said in a draft like '14 McKay may go around 7 or so, compared to Nola. But he'll go 1/2 in this draft.

 

I haven't listened to enough yet to see if they talk Greene. It's here:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/viewpoint/mock-draft-podcast-april-21/#oAhplJCHc83WVi4x.97

 

 

Heard this one today too. It's a good one.

 

I'm following a chat with John Manuel today too. Here's one thing he said about Greene...

 

J.P. (Springfield, IL): John, your tidbit about Greene has me curious, Is he seriously considering "tanking" by being strictly a hitter going into the draft in the hopes he'll fall to SD? I've heard of the notion of teams "tanking" in order to get a higher draft pick, but this is new. What happens when teams ask him to do pre-draft workouts - would they see him on the mound or no?

 

John Manuel: I would not say he's tanking. I don't think that's what he's doing at all. It is a 17-year-old kid we're talking about here so we should be sensitive in how we address his situation. He did skip this week's Boras Classic on the mound; he did not skip it hitting. It is fair to say he probably has shown people all he needs to show them on the mound, and he has convinced people that he's a better prospect on the mound by having a solid but unspectacular spring as a hitter, while being spectacular on the mound at times. I know there are clubs with concerns about the breaking ball while others do not share those reservations. It's very possible that going out No. 1 overall means more to Greene than anything else; I do not pretend to know all the ins and outs of the entire situation. But (a) it's more complicated than, "He's the best player or one of the two and should go 1 or 2." And ( I wrote in the first mock last month that the industry believes his absolute floor is 3, and the rumors persist that he would prefer to go 1 or 3 but not 2 to Cincinnati. Those are rumors, but they are persistent rumors, enough so that I felt comfortable reporting it, because it comes from so many different sources.

 

So if Greene would prefer to go 1 to the Twins or 3 to the Padres, doesn't that mean he would be ok being drafted by the Twins? That's a good thing (if you are a fan of Greene) right?

[InfraRen]

Sure sounds like he's still very much in play at 1 with that from John then, IMO.

[Vanimal46]

What's wrong with Cincinnati that Greene is avoiding being drafted by them? 

[bird]

 

Early returns this year from Chattanooga is that a total overhaul in pitcher development is necessary. I like that Falvey and Levine are taking a year to learn the organization. After they establish a new minor league staff, then they should contemplate a one-pitch high school pitcher.

 

I assume you're drawing your first conclusion based on the struggles of two high-profile prospects at Chattanooga. A deeper look will show that they have the third best team ERA in their league and that 75% of the pitchers are performing exceptionally. What evidence do you see of incompetence?

 

I'm very skeptical about your other conclusions as well. I very much doubt the new regime is taking any kind of wait and see approach. Instead, I think they're drawing a very different conclusion than you and many other fans. I would bet that we never see the kind of staff overhaul you suggest. I think they'll add some processes, add other resources, and make a few personnel changes, because there just isn't the glaring talent vacuum many assume there is.

[drjim]

What's wrong with Cincinnati that Greene is avoiding being drafted by them?

Probably nothing. Likely just wants to be #1 or close to home.

[Guest]

I assume you're drawing your first conclusion based on the struggles of two high-profile prospects at Chattanooga. A deeper look will show that they have the third best team ERA in their league and that 75% of the pitchers are performing exceptionally. What evidence do you see of incompetence?

 

I'm very skeptical about your other conclusions as well. I very much doubt the new regime is taking any kind of wait and see approach. Instead, I think they're drawing a very different conclusion than you and many other fans. I would bet that we never see the kind of staff overhaul you suggest. I think they'll add some processes, add other resources, and make a few personnel changes, because there just isn't the glaring talent vacuum many assume there is.

Ok, let's congratulate them for a good job with 27-29 year old minor league free agents having early success in AA.

 

That still doesn't give any confidence that the minor league system has a good chance to successfully develop a one pitch high school pitcher.

[nytwinsfan]

This Mike Beradino article talks about Falvey watching/scouting  McKay in person last night: http://www.twincities.com/2017/04/21/minnesota-twins-phil-hughes-hones-missing-changeup-in-between-starts-session/

 

It wasn't his best night.

 

 

 

Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey scouted Louisville lefty Brendan McKay for the first time in person on Friday in Kentucky.

McKay, under strong consideration by the Twins as the No. 1 overall draft pick on June 12, took the loss against Duke after giving up five earned runs on six hits and three walks in six innings. The fast-rising junior struck out seven and threw a pair of wild pitches in a 98-pitch outing.

He also went 0 for 2 with two walks and a run as the Cardinals’ DH.

On April 7 Falvey flew to Sherman Oaks, Calif., to scout high school right-hander Hunter Greene, also projected among the top two picks.

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm still not sure what leverage would exist to keep the Twins from drafting Greene. I know they will speak to his agent beforehand to get a sense of how much he wants to sign. But even if he says "I have been offered more than 1-1 money from San Diego." it still seems like the Twins can say "We will offer you 1-1 money and you will be the first pick. If you refuse to sign, you will have to wait a year and who knows where you will be drafted next year and for how much."

[bird]

 

Ok, let's congratulate them for a good job with 27-29 year old minor league free agents having early success in AA.

That still doesn't give any confidence that the minor league system has a good chance to successfully develop a one pitch high school pitcher.

 

It's okay for you to lack confidence. But you aren't supporting it with facts in either of your comments. Half the AA roster is 23 or under, and there's no one 27 or older. The median age of the roster is very likely one of the youngest in the Southern League. If you don't want to support your viewpoint with actual facts, why use made up ones?

 

 

[drjim]

I'm still not sure what leverage would exist to keep the Twins from drafting Greene. I know they will speak to his agent beforehand to get a sense of how much he wants to sign. But even if he says "I have been offered more than 1-1 money from San Diego." it still seems like the Twins can say "We will offer you 1-1 money and you will be the first pick. If you refuse to sign, you will have to wait a year and who knows where you will be drafted next year and for how much."

Correct, there is no leverage. If the Twins want him they'll take him.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm still not sure what leverage would exist to keep the Twins from drafting Greene. I know they will speak to his agent beforehand to get a sense of how much he wants to sign. But even if he says "I have been offered more than 1-1 money from San Diego." it still seems like the Twins can say "We will offer you 1-1 money and you will be the first pick. If you refuse to sign, you will have to wait a year and who knows where you will be drafted next year and for how much."

Sure, we can. But the Twins probably want some certainty to the price. If the Twins plan to give him the entire 1/1 pool they won't be able to save money for other picks. And Greene could sit out a year and go the JUCO route and be drafted net year. He would be able to get insurance in case of an injury that wouldn't pay him nearly as much as the Twins but would give him something (Groome threatened that last year). And the Twins probably don't want to poison the well with him or his advisor. If they say SD will give us 8m (300k more than the Twins slot bonus) the Twins forcing him to take less will make him unhappy. That's why teams and players generally come to terms prior to the draft. That doesn't always happen. The White Sox, for instance, signed all their picks and then started negotiations with Rodon and gave him what they had left. But that might not be the best way to do things - esp since Rodon probably should have been 1/1 and he was a college arm who was ML ready.

 

My guess is that if Greene or his advisor say they don't want the Twins to draft him, the Twins won't. But I don't think Greene will say that.

[Cornholio]

Perhaps the Twins could pre-arraign a trade with the Padres, Greene for Espinoza or Quantrill and the third pick. I'm not sure whether the Twins would need to sign Greene first, or if they can trade his rights once drafted.

[Hrbowski]

 

Perhaps the Twins could pre-arraign a trade with the Padres, Greene for Espinoza or Quantrill and the third pick. I'm not sure whether the Twins would need to sign Greene first, or if they can trade his rights once drafted.

They need to sign him first.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Poche got shelled, I don't think he's really in consideration at this point.

 

Bukauskas had a nice night, striking out 8 with 2 runs in 6.2.  Walked four though.

 

quiet weekend for Rooker

[Hrbowski]

 

Poche got shelled, I don't think he's really in consideration at this point.

 

Bukauskas had a nice night, striking out 8 with 2 runs in 6.2.  Walked four though.

 

quiet weekend for Rooker

Poche never was in consideration.