Article: Extend Miggy

[tobi0040]

Great point Mike. The money in this case goes to a spoon fed second generation billionaire or a kid who grew up in extreme poverty. Literally a house smaller than my garage with seven other people.

[Twinsbar107]

 

You used WAR to compare the players. But now it's meaningless? I just asked you to include Sano's (which was 0.8 last year but already better this year).

 

I think everybody is undervaluing Yelich and the deal he signed was ultra team-friendly.

He is probably my favorite MLB player, outside of Mike Trout and Twins players.

[High heat]

I would love to buy out some free against years now from Sano. He looks so much more engaged at 3rd then he did in RF or DH. I would also talk to Buxton and see if he would take $ up front and buy some years showing confidence in him as well

[laloesch]

 

 

My two cents:

 

1. I think Sano has always valued himself as more than what he currently is.  When he first joined the big leagues, he said he was ready to hit 30-35+ homeruns.  After his first season, he said he was ready to start hitting 40-45+ homeruns.  That kind of ego is going to be looking for way more than $15M at the last season of the contract.  He probably thinks he's already all-star caliber worth $15M and soon will be MVP-caliber worth $20-$25M+.  
2. Sano seems to me to be the type of player who is always going to need a kick in the butt.  I wouldn't go so far as to call him lazy, but I think having pending arbitration contracts and eventually a looming Free Agent payday will make him play way, way better.  

 

 

Sano is not going to sign an extension with the Twins PERIOD IMO! He's a playboy, spending much of his offseason in NY City the last two years if I remember correctly.  Perhaps that changes eventually but right now there is NO-WAY he signs an extension in Minnesota.  He could make 200+ million on his first contract if he signs outside Minnesota. He will be on the first plane ride outta here as soon as sniffs FA. 

[markos]

When comparing to Yelich or Piscotty, it's worth remembering that HRs and RBIs are way more valuable in arbitration, so it isn't crazy to think that Sano's arbitration baseline should be higher.

[Doomtints]

I'm not sure who would be dumber in this scenario. The Twins for offering it or Sano if he accepted it.

[Shaitan]

Pure speculation, but he does seem destined for a bigger market, just personality wise.

 

That was probably set in motion back when he got his first contract and all the related attention.

[KidBro]

 

 

 

Plouffe got about $15 million in arbitration.  

 

I just read that out loud...... it had never really clicked before, 

 

[Guest]

Layoffs at ESPN could mean that the pot of gold from rights fees may go away, meaning that salaries could trend down in a few years, unless the league can figure out how to replace the money from another network or from direct to consumer. It could be in Sano's interest to sign something sooner than later.

[caninatl04]

When is the national TV contract (which expires in 2021) renegotiated?  Maybe ESPN's "problems" will expand to other sports carriers and TV revenues remain flat (or even fall).

 

By the way, check out an excellent summary of TV revenues at:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/

 

Its a dismal read unless one lives in SoCal.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Layoffs at ESPN could mean that the pot of gold from rights fees may go away, meaning that salaries could trend down in a few years, unless the league can figure out how to replace the money from another network or from direct to consumer. It could be in Sano's interest to sign something sooner than later.

 

Terry Ryan once bet on salaries going down.....it has never happened in any professional sports' league. Doesn't mean it won't, but it never has. If you are a player, are you really betting on that?

[DaveW]

I said it when Sano was brought up the first time: They should have immediately signed him to a contract where it gave the Twins 2-3 team options (or just buy the first 2-3 years of FA out)

At this point, there is zero reason for Sano to even consider an extension unless the Twins make him a great offer (spoiler alert: the penny pinching pohlad probably will never do that again)

Sano has the bat, personality and game to be a bonafide star in this league from a talent and marketing standpoint (think of how many commercials you saw big Papi in once he put up numbers in Boston?) I hate to say it, but I'm 80% sure that Sano will be a Dodger, Yankee or Red Sox when it's all said and done. For now we should just enjoy the Sano show and pray that he can get us a title prior.

[kab21]

 

I said it when Sano was brought up the first time: They should have immediately signed him to a contract where it gave the Twins 2-3 team options (or just buy the first 2-3 years of FA out)

At this point, there is zero reason for Sano to even consider an extension unless the Twins make him a great offer (spoiler alert: the penny pinching pohlad probably will never do that again)

Sano has the bat, personality and game to be a bonafide star in this league from a talent and marketing standpoint (think of how many commercials you saw big Papi in once he put up numbers in Boston?) I hate to say it, but I'm 80% sure that Sano will be a Dodger, Yankee or Red Sox when it's all said and done. For now we should just enjoy the Sano show and pray that he can get us a title prior.

This is the big point here. The Twins need to start showing some urgency because getting competitive 3-4 years from now is just about when Sano is getting ready to leave.

[DaveW]

 

This is the big point here. The Twins need to start showing some urgency because getting competitive 3-4 years from now is just about when Sano is getting ready to leave.

Yup, and this is ultimately what sank them previously. They never ever ever ever showed the urgency (or even close to it) when they had Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, Cuddyer, Johan, Liriano, Nathan, Radke etc in their primes.

UGH!!!!!!!!

[drjim]

This is the big point here. The Twins need to start showing some urgency because getting competitive 3-4 years from now is just about when Sano is getting ready to leave.

I'm not certain there would be a clear way to balance this. If Sano has no interest in staying they're in a tough spot.

 

To compete quickly they'd have to throw a lot of money at very uncertain risks of extending Dozier, mid-rotation arms, relievers and the like. That bill would come due and would likely be severe.

 

Quick competition has to mostly come internally, otherwise it will be a minimum of 3-4 years.

[kab21]

 

I'm not certain there would be a clear way to balance this. If Sano has no interest in staying they're in a tough spot.

To compete quickly they'd have to throw a lot of money at very uncertain risks of extending Dozier, mid-rotation arms, relievers and the like. That bill would come due and would likely be severe.

Quick competition has to mostly come internally, otherwise it will be a minimum of 3-4 years.

No, it wouldn't be easy but it looks like 2-3 more years for the internal improvement to happen.

I am waiting for an non-conventional move from this FO that really kicks TD into debate overdrive.

[yarnivek1972]

The other consideration from Sano's view is that would have him being a free agent after he turns 30. Meaning his next deal, if it isn't renegotiated sooner, could take a hit, given that guys his size usually have back problems sooner or later.

[drjim]

 

No, it wouldn't be easy but it looks like 2-3 more years for the internal improvement to happen.

I am waiting for an non-conventional move from this FO that really kicks TD into debate overdrive.

 

That second point would be fun.

[yarnivek1972]

I know the Indians signed a lot of their core players back when they dominated the AL Central in the late 90s (Ramirez, Thome. Vizquel, Alomar, Nagy, etc).  That predate's Falvey's tenure there though. Holy ####, I just looked it up to see how old Falvey is.  He's exactly one month older than Joe Mauer. Obviously, the risk is far smaller for position players.  I'm not sure I would ever advocate signing a 1 year experience pitcher to a 5-6 year contract.

[DaveW]

The Twins messed up by not extending Johan early on. But yeah in general I agree that arms are much riskier.

 

Sano though? No brainer. Power doesn't drop off until 34-35-36

 

Lock him up til 32/33. That still allows him another massive contract at that point as well.

Edited April 28, 2017 by DaveW

[Guest]

Terry Ryan once bet on salaries going down.....it has never happened in any professional sports' league. Doesn't mean it won't, but it never has. If you are a player, are you really betting on that?

Because Terry Ryan once was wrong about expecting something to happen doesn't mean it couldn't happen in the future. Whether or not it does, time will tell. However, ESPN has been the golden goose. If it reduces what it pays to broadcast games, the league will either need to find another network to replace ESPN's money, which frankly sounds unlikely, or figure out how to replace that money in another way, which won't be simple. If ESPN reduces spending and a replacement isn't found, salaries will likely go down - right around the time Sano is due to become a free agent. Each player and his agent is going to have to assess the risk. Depending on the economy, many may roll the dice, but some will reach for certainty.

[DaveW]

 

Because Terry Ryan once was wrong about expecting something to happen doesn't mean it couldn't happen in the future. Whether or not it does, time will tell. However, ESPN has been the golden goose. If it reduces what it pays to broadcast games, the league will either need to find another network to replace ESPN's money, which frankly sounds unlikely, or figure out how to replace that money in another way, which won't be simple. If ESPN reduces spending and a replacement isn't found, salaries will likely go down - right around the time Sano is due to become a free agent. Each player and his agent is going to have to assess the risk. Depending on the economy, many may roll the dice, but some will reach for certainty.

I wouldn't count on it.

ESPN's pains are from overpaying for MNF and NCAAFB.

Baseball revenues will be fine, if some people start cutting the cord, mlb.tv subs will go up. MLB has been on top of this for a long time.

[drjim]

When baseball figures out the agreement to allow lift the local blackout they'll be really set.

 

It is pretty interesting what a small percent of revenues comes from national contracts. MLB is actually quite cutting edge with the revenue they get from advanced media. Will prop them up if/when rights fees drop.

[drjim]

Did Terry Ryan actually say that about salaries? I couldn't find a quote from him about it.

[ThejacKmp]

Unfair to criticize the Twins for not buying a year of Dozier's free agency. No way that was ever on the table on his end. Because he came up in his mid 20s, he won't hit free agency until he's 30. He was absolutely not interested in hitting free agency a year later - the later he hits it, the less likely he is to get that massive pay day. Dozier at 30 might get a big deal, Dozier at 31 is significantly less likely to get a big deal.

 

I'm not saying there's no number you could give him that would make him give up a year but I am confident that that number is so high that the Twins would be insane to think about it.

 

The deal they signed was the right deal and only possible deal.

[TheLeviathan]

If I'm Sano, I want to see that this is a place worth staying before I ink that.  In a year we could just as easily be looking at a mini-rebuild again as we could competing.

[Mike Sixel]

Did Terry Ryan actually say that about salaries? I couldn't find a quote from him about it.

Iirc, it was about knoblauch. Yes.

[amjgt]

On the "Touch 'em All" podcast  (Basically 30 minutes of Twins content on 1500AM) this topic came up.

 

I ended up yelling at my radio.

 

They did two "who says no" scenarios.

Scenario 1: 10yr/250M

Their contention was that both sides might not be all that interested. Which I don't necessarily disagree with, but one of their reasons for Sano's camp saying no was that it wasn't enough money. (more on this in a minute)

 

Scenario 2: 6yr/100M

Everybody said Sano's camp would definitely say no. Not enough money. This is when I started yelling at my radio, something to the effect of "DO YOU PEOPLE NOT UNDERSTAND HOW THE FIRST 6 YEARS OF SALARY WORKS?!?!?!"

 

Basically, that would be buying out two free agent years for $35M each, as well as guaranteeing the whole contract. AND THAT'S NOT ENOUGH? 

 

I understand the desire from the Sano camp to hit free agency a) as early as possible, and B} at a prime age, but 6 years puts him at what? 28? That's pretty prime.

 

My opinion:

6/70 with a team option that would make it 7/100. Also, I'd keep it pretty flat over the length of the contract. Might as well pay a decent amount now, when we're on the way lower end of our payroll range.

 

2018: 10

2019: 12

2020: 12

2021: 12

2022: 12

2023: 12

 

This allows us future financial flexibility as well as, if we need to, a valuable, low-cost trade asset. 

 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2017 by amjgt

[amjgt]

One thing worth thinking about, from Sano's camp's perspective.... power hitting DH types didn't get paid much money this off-season. Was than an anomaly or a trend?

 

Is that Miguel's floor? Probably. But that's a scary financial floor.  

[Vanimal46]

The more Sano proves he can play in the field, the more his future salary goes up. I'd really like to get him locked up long term sooner than later.