Buxton on MLB Network

[gunnarthor]

That fangraphs piece was pretty good - especially the comparisons to Bradley Jr. 

[Mike Sixel]

Remember though, most players that hit like this never get this many chances, so there is a lot of survivor bias in that list at the end.

[Einstein1]

Interesting video, you'd think that Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, one of the best hitters the game has seen, would also be able to pick up on a flaw like this in Buxton's swing (not tracking the ball).  

[Parker Hageman]

Thanks for posting this video. I missed it the first time around.

 

My favorite part of the video was when Reynolds said "here's a pitch he should be hitting" on a filthy David Robertson curveball. Doh'kay.

 

In terms of the validity, here are my thoughts: The truth is hitters cannot see the bat hitting the ball. That's just not a thing. There are hitters who don't track every pitch. There are hitters who hit home runs without their head looking at the point of contact. 

 

 

That being said, Reynolds has a good point. In the swings they showed in that clip, Buxton is clearly pulling his head off from the ball and part of that is because he's selling out pull side. Molitor mentioned this several times during spring training so I think he is aware of that particular problem. The Twins broadcast recently talked about all his foul balls being to the pull side as well. This is where Buxton's head not being down is playing the bigger role -- he's out front on his swing. 

 

Last September, Buxton was better at keeping his head in. In this clip -- a pop out no less! -- you can see Buxton keeping his head down and in before the swing and right after contact. 

 

 

I still circle back to the change in his swing that is potentially disrupting both his timing and his swing plane from the end of last year. 

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/851503166369783808

 

In those clips, Buxton's head is down and tracking the ball. So I think it comes and goes. Personally, I'd immediately toss out the clip of Buxton vs Robertson's curveball. That's just an unfair pitch. In terms of Buxton "giving up" on the slider/cutter inside for strike three, I wonder if Buxton was looking for something else. If he was, he may have given up on that pitch from the start. I'm not wholly dismissive of Reynolds' analysis -- he's absolutely correct that he's pulling off the ball -- but I'm not sure if tracking the pitch the entire time is really that big of an issue.

 

Tracking a baseball can be a very useful practice in order to zone up again. In conversations with Michael Cuddyer, he told me he would intentionally try to work walks after a period of high strikeouts. He felt that it would give him the ability to find his zone again. I understand the Twins want Buxton to be aggressive but this might be a good time to re-calibrate. 

 

 

[Linus]

Buxton swing is long and loopy. I think this is all mechanical in that the way he feels comfortable hitting doesn't play at the major league level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Buxton swing is long and loopy. I think this is all mechanical in that the way he feels comfortable hitting doesn't play at the major league level.

If that was true, minor league scouts wouldn't have placed him as the overall #1 prospect for three years.

 

There may be weaknesses and hitches in Buxton's swing but they're certainly not as glaring as you suggest.

[Linus]

Brock

Perhaps that is why they convinced him to go to the toe tap a while ago? IMO he's not concise getting the barrel to the hitting zone. I guess we will find out sooner or later. I hope he succeeds.

[Shane Wahl]

This is a fantastic analysis of what is going on. 

[The_Phantom]

They showed an interview the other day where Buxton said he was having fun in September "seeing how far he can hit the ball". IMO his swing is far too big and he's trying to do exactly that too much. He needs to do a better job of playing to contact.  

 

Really, the fangraphs piece is off base. He can't be trotted out there forever batting sub .100

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

They showed an interview the other day where Buxton said he was having fun in September "seeing how far he can hit the ball". IMO his swing is far too big and he's trying to do exactly that too much. He needs to do a better job of playing to contact.  

 

Really, the fangraphs piece is off base. He can't be trotted out there forever batting sub .100

 

that part where they said "forever" doesn't exist. 

[The_Phantom]

 

that part where they said "forever" doesn't exist. 

Sure,

 

But how long is too long? 

 

"The move would quickly become unpopular. Pedroia would tally 55 PA in April 2007, and in them he hit .182/.308/.236, which equated to a 51 wRC+."

 

Through 46 PA in 2017, Buxton has put up .093/.152/.140 or a wRC+ of -24.

 

In other words, Pedroia was given 9 more plate appearances before he was told to go work things out than Buxton has right now. Buxton's performance is so much worse, even if he gets on base all 9 times he still will have a lower OBP than Pedroia did. His OBP would be .291 

 

I love Buxton's defense, but there isn't much more time to let this experiment continue. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not defending Buxton at all. He's beyond terrible. If he wasn't a top prospect, he'd be in AAA by now. Guys that hit like this are just generally cut....but he has tools, and he's young.

 

Of course, they have NO PLAN at all for 1 of these OFs failing, since they have no real backup OF.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He needs to follow the pitch deeper into the strike zone. That is the golden rule in any sport. Keep your eye on the ball. He should get in lots of good live BP this week with the night games to correct this.

[The_Phantom]

 

I'm not defending Buxton at all. He's beyond terrible. If he wasn't a top prospect, he'd be in AAA by now. Guys that hit like this are just generally cut....but he has tools, and he's young.

 

Of course, they have NO PLAN at all for 1 of these OFs failing, since they have no real backup OF.

 

I generally agree, though he's 23. So he's really getting to the point that it's either time for him to make it or we just start to think he's a bust. There's still time for a breakout, but he's not really in "prospect" territory much longer either. 

 

My concern with the "let him play" attitude is doing damage to his long term career. He's clearly pressing at the plate and swinging hard at everything. Adjustments need to be made, and if they aren't happening in MLB it's doing him and the team a disservice to just ignore it and let him play. 

[drjim]

I also don't think it is quite as easy as just saying he's a "top prospect" so he gets a longer leash. He flashed production in September and he is an elite defensive player at a critical position. Both of those buy more time to work it out.

[The_Phantom]

 

I also don't think it is quite as easy as just saying he's a "top prospect" so he gets a longer leash. He flashed production in September and he is an elite defensive player at a critical position. Both of those buy more time to work it out.

Why should that buy more time for him at the MLB level when he's putting up historically bad numbers?  He still has options left and he's doing a lot of things wrong at the plate, like (in his own words) "trying to see how far he can hit the ball". He needs to be retaught getting on base, taking what he's given and then recognizing the opportunities to try to knock the cover off the ball. Right now he's trying to knock the cover off the ball even if the pitcher throws it in the dirt. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Why should that buy more time for him at the MLB level when he's putting up historically bad numbers?  He still has options left and he's doing a lot of things wrong at the plate, like (in his own words) "trying to see how far he can hit the ball". He needs to be retaught getting on base, taking what he's given and then recognizing the opportunities to try to knock the cover off the ball. Right now he's trying to knock the cover off the ball even if the pitcher throws it in the dirt. 

 

If Buxton were sent down, that would be a big blow to the defense in the OF.... They're left with Grossman playing everyday out there. Or worse, D Santana playing everyday. They're between a rock and a hard place on this one. For the 4th year in a row, there is no backup plan for a struggling young OF. 

[drjim]

 

Why should that buy more time for him at the MLB level when he's putting up historically bad numbers?  He still has options left and he's doing a lot of things wrong at the plate, like (in his own words) "trying to see how far he can hit the ball". He needs to be retaught getting on base, taking what he's given and then recognizing the opportunities to try to knock the cover off the ball. Right now he's trying to knock the cover off the ball even if the pitcher throws it in the dirt. 

 

Are you asking why a team might stick longer with a guy who puts up elite defense at an up the middle position?

[The_Phantom]

 

If Buxton were sent down, that would be a big blow to the defense in the OF.... They're left with Grossman playing everyday out there. Or worse, D Santana playing everyday. They're between a rock and a hard place on this one. For the 4th year in a row, there is no backup plan for a struggling young OF. 

I know the Twins look good right now overall. Do you think they'll actually compete for a playoff spot this year? Because to me that is the deciding factor. If we are still a year away from being competitive I'd rather have Buxton get proper seasoning and come ready to play WELL next year and actually help this team when it's time. 

 

If we actually remain competitive, taking a hit on the defensive end would definitely be a hard pill to swallow. His offensive struggles will eventually lead to more bad defensive plays though, it's just human nature. 

 

But besides that point, sometimes long term planning needs to be the focus and as long as we are not going to be competitive this year I'd rather hold on to Buxton (if he pans out at all) in the years that this team has more of a chance.

 

[The_Phantom]

 

Are you asking why a team might stick longer with a guy who puts up elite defense at an up the middle position?

 

No I'm asking how much longer is too long. He's putting up very nice defensive numbers, but horrendously bad offensive numbers. 

[jimbo92107]

Dang, Reynolds was dead on right. Buxton simply isn't following the ball into the bat. This is fundamental for every stick-hits-ball sport. Watch a slo-mo of Roger Federer hitting a forehand, you see his nose pointing at the point of contact a full half second AFTER the ball is gone. Same goes for all good baseball hitters, and even golfers like Jack Nickolaus, who famously would keep his left lead eye on the ball until only the tee remained at the finish of his follow through. 

 

It may seem hard to believe, but you really can see the ball hit the bat (club/racket) if your eyes follow it all the way in. What's even crazier is that your body can actually make adjustments at that speed to hit the ball on the sweet spot. Buxton clearly isn't doing that. Great spot by Harold Reynolds.

[OldTimeTwinkie]

It's not so much that your eyes watch the point of contact but your body follows your eyes in any sport. If the eyes come up the body comes up thus pulling off the swing.

[bluechipper]

Mark DeRosa just did a little segment on Buxton on MLB Now. His issue with Buxton was that he thinks Buxton is leaning too far forward and is too crouched compared to how he looked last September.

[Halsey Hall]

I just watched this for the first time, and Reynolds is right on! Someone call the Twins and have them look at this!

[Parker Hageman]

It may seem hard to believe, but you really can see the ball hit the bat (club/racket) if your eyes follow it all the way in. What's even crazier is that your body can actually make adjustments at that speed to hit the ball on the sweet spot. Buxton clearly isn't doing that. Great spot by Harold Reynolds.

 

 

This seems hard to believe because it is not true.

 

Eye-tracking research has found that no one can fully track a baseball from a pitcher's hand to the point of contact. Some research has found that pro hitters lose the flight of the ball 5-to-5.5 feet away from the plate. It simply does not happen. Elite hitters have been found to locate the ball at key spots at the trajectory and are able to predict the location of contact. 

 

Ted Williams, who had 20/10 vision and was said could see the laces on the ball during a pitch, even refuted that claim years later.

 

"I told all my friends that I was coming to see you," said [John] McCain. "I bet fifty of them said, 'Ask him could he really see the laces on the ball?'"

 

"****, no," Williams barked. "You're readin' all these sportswriters. Jesus. Listen, that ball looked like a pea to me comin' in there once in a while. Hell, no, I couldn't see the laces."

 

 

For Buxton, his head movement is a byproduct of trying to pull the ball. That's it. 

[Parker Hageman]

 

This seems hard to believe because it is not true.

 

Eye-tracking research has found that no one can fully track a baseball from a pitcher's hand to the point of contact. Some research has found that pro hitters lose the flight of the ball 5-to-5.5 feet away from the plate. It simply does not happen. Elite hitters have been found to locate the ball at key spots at the trajectory and are able to predict the location of contact. 

 

Ted Williams, who had 20/10 vision and was said could see the laces on the ball during a pitch, even refuted that claim years later.

 

 

For Buxton, his head movement is a byproduct of trying to pull the ball. That's it. 

 

Here's the other thing that bugged me about Reynolds' piece -- he's cherry-picked those at-bats to use as examples. Here are two swings this year in which he is "tracking" the ball to the bat.

 

 

The David Robertson example should be thrown out all together in my opinion. That guy's curveball makes a lot of elite hitters look foolish. I want to add that I do think Buxton should be better at "tracking" pitches in that he should have his head in at contact but I don't believe that is his main issue. I'll say it again -- it is a byproduct of larger issues, most notably, his pull-happy mode.

 

Going back to his pre-swing stance between now and last September, there are two elements that are difference. The first is the open stance and the second is where he is holding the bat. 

 

 

With the closing of his stance, Buxton is cutting himself off from inside pitches. Anything that comes inside he has to spin off of it to get it. Last fall, he stayed straight-up so he didn't have to overturn to hit an inside pitch.

 

 

This circles back to the fact that he is in pull/attack mode. When a hitter sells out to pull every pitch, it costs them a lot of the zone. We saw this with Brian Dozier two years ago where the outer-half was completely foreign to him. He would either whiff or smack everything into the ground trying to yank it. It is similar for Buxton right now. Everything on the outer-half, he is swinging through or grounding out because his barrel isn't staying in the zone long. 

 

His 2017 stance is seemingly geared to get to that outer-half but it compounds the problem by setting him up for issues on the inner-half too. If he is mentally thinking pull and his body responses the same, then he has no chance on a lot of those pitches.

 

Last year Buxton talked about just trying to hit the ball to second base during BP. He's not actually trying to hit the ball to second base but he's thinking that way in order to keep him body from selling out pull-side. Brian Dozier said something similar where it was trying to hit the ball through the center field fence. Dozier never went away from his pull-happy tendencies but he was able to put his body in the right spots to do so with authority. 

 

 

 

[ashbury]

 If he is mentally thinking

Yogi Berra, if he were still alive, would have some advice about that: Don't.

 

But seriously, I can't decide if Buxton is thinking too much or too little. It's easy to lean toward the former. He could just pick a different game plan each game, to keep the opposing pitcher from knowing for sure how to pitch to him. E.g. an extreme closed stance to pounce on outside pitches, and let any inside ones go for today. Tomorrow, a crouch for low pitches. Whatever. Just think once, before the game, and be done with it - have some fun, as the cliche goes. Really give the talking heads something to talk about. After a few days, go back to a consistent stance.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Yogi Berra, if he were still alive, would have some advice about that: Don't.

 

But seriously, I can't decide if Buxton is thinking too much or too little. It's easy to lean toward the former. He could just pick a different game plan each game, to keep the opposing pitcher from knowing for sure how to pitch to him. E.g. an extreme closed stance to pounce on outside pitches, and let any inside ones go for today. Tomorrow, a crouch for low pitches. Whatever. Just think once, before the game, and be done with it - have some fun, as the cliche goes. Really give the talking heads something to talk about. After a few days, go back to a consistent stance.

 

From what people around the org have told me, he is a guy who has had multiple people in his ear about how and what he should be doing. And from what I've been told, Buxton is such a good guy that he continues to listen to everyone.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

From what people around the org have told me, he is a guy who has had multiple people in his ear about how and what he should be doing. And from what I've been told, Buxton is such a good guy that he continues to listen to everyone.  

 

As I posted earlier, this is my fear. And, the FO needs to fix this. Now. Pick 1-2 people, tell everyone else if they give him advice, it's bad for their career. Tell Buxton not to ask others. IMO, they need to simplify things for him.

[ashbury]

From what people around the org have told me, he is a guy who has had multiple people in his ear about how and what he should be doing. And from what I've been told, Buxton is such a good guy that he continues to listen to everyone.

If only it were possible for the team to install someone to act as the focal point and clearinghouse for all these helpful suggestions.

 

http://www.readingeagle.com/storyimage/RE/20170303/AP/303039476/EP/1/1/EP-303039476.jpg/

 

_{^{/ Ninja'd, while spending time searching for "le gif juste".}}