Do the Twins get some credit for Ervin Santana?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yes, we all know Santana was an established veteran when he came to the Twins but the guy has become a much better pitcher since joining the team.

 

2005-2014: 229 games, 99 ERA+, 4.26 FIP, 2.8 BB/9, 7.2 K/9

 

2015-2017: 49 games, 119 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 2.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9

 

What, if anything, has changed about this guy? Other than the actual runs allowed, his peripherals look close enough to be irrelevant. But he's been playing in front of some pretty questionable defensive alignments and has posted drastically better runs allowed numbers since becoming a Twin. Normally, I'd say "eh, whatever, stat noise" but we're talking about close to 1 2/3rds seasons now and he's picking up 2017 where he left off in 2016.

 

What gives?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, we all know Santana was an established veteran when he came to the Twins but the guy has become a much better pitcher since joining the team.

 

2005-2014: 229 games, 99 ERA+, 4.26 FIP, 2.8 BB/9, 7.2 K/9

 

2015-2017: 49 games, 119 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 2.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9

 

What, if anything, has changed about this guy? Other than the actual runs allowed, his peripherals look close enough to be irrelevant. But he's been playing in front of some pretty questionable defensive alignments and has posted drastically better runs allowed numbers since becoming a Twin. Normally, I'd say "eh, whatever, stat noise" but we're talking about close to 1 2/3rds seasons now and he's picking up 2017 where he left off in 2016.

 

What gives?

 

what's his babip been? No idea if something is different or not, but I've always been a believer that he's under rated here. 

[Vanimal46]

Someone check his locker for this.... Have to wake up arm. 

http://www.razorbloggers.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Jobu.jpg

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

what's his babip been?

As a Twin, .285 BABIP.

 

In his career, .285 BABIP.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As a Twin, .285 BABIP.

 

In his career, .285 BABIP.

 

Hmmmmm, those look almost the same, so it's probably not that....

[gunnarthor]

He's just a solid pro.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

He had a 1.2 HR/9 from 2005-2014 and a 1.0 HR/9 as a Twin.

 

But there's no discernible HR split between home and away so Target Field isn't responsible for the drop in home runs.

[DaveW]

Santana always seemed like a guy who had better "stuff" then his results.

Showing his 2005-2014 stats isn't really relevant IMO, I think 2011-2014 is more relevant because it's the four most recent years prior to the signing, in those four years:

3.24 ERA

3.38 ERA

3.95 ERA

5.16 ERA

The 5.16 ERA was clearly the outlier IMO. So basically I think Santana has been the pitcher who we kind of assumed he would be, very good #3, solid #2 type.

Liked the signing at the time, love it now.

[Thrylos]

Check out how the numbers are after you take his age 22-24 pre-prime seasons.  Eyeballing, FIP, K/9, BB/9 would look the same before and after Twins.

 

Same for arguments' sake if you want to do the 3 seasons with the Twins vs. the 3 previous seasons.

 

That's who he is, after he learned how to pitch.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Santana always seemed like a guy who had better "stuff" then his results.

Showing his 2005-2014 stats isn't really relevant IMO, I think 2011-2014 is more relevant because it's the four most recent years prior to the signing, in those four years:

3.24 ERA

3.38 ERA

3.95 ERA

5.16 ERA

The 5.16 ERA was clearly the outlier IMO. So basically I think Santana has been the pitcher who we kind of assumed he would be, very good #3, solid #2 type.

Liked the signing at the time, love it now.

ERA doesn't really tell the entire story there. Here are Santana's ERA+ stats from 2011-2014, which adjusts for the league-wide scoring depression that happened during that time:

 

2011: 111

2012: 74

2013: 127

2014: 90

 

His play looks a lot less impressive using adjusted ERA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Check out how the numbers are after you take his age 22-24 pre-prime seasons.  Eyeballing, FIP, K/9, BB/9 would look the same before and after Twins.

 

Same for arguments' sake if you want to do the 3 seasons with the Twins vs. the 3 previous seasons.

 

That's who he is, after he learned how to pitch.

I considered that but it doesn't really matter when you check the stats. Here is Santana's 2011-2014 line. I added 2011 because he looks really bad without that extra season (he had several on-again, off-again seasons during that stretch):

 

2011-2014: 126 games, 99 ERA+, 4.19 FIP, 2.7 BB/9, 7.2 K/9

 

Almost identical to his career line. And by "almost identical", I mean "almost identical".

 

If you take out his pre-age 25 seasons, the numbers nudge up a small amount (102 ERA+) but still miles below what he has done with the Twins.

[Thrylos]

 

I considered that but it doesn't really matter when you check the stats. Here is Santana's 2011-2014 line. I added 2011 because he looks really bad without that extra season (he had several on-again, off-again seasons during that stretch):

 

2011-2014: 126 games, 99 ERA+, 4.19 FIP, 2.7 BB/9, 7.2 K/9

 

Almost identical to his career line. And by "almost identical", I mean "almost identical".

 

Which, if you get rid of ERA and ERA+, is within standard error of his Twins' line (3.94 FIP vs 4.19 FIP is pretty insignificant with a SS = 6)

[Oldgoat_MN]

Baseball people seem to have a lot of respect for the veteran pitcher. There is probably a reason for that. I think Santana is just smarter than he used to be. He has a better idea of what works and what doesn't against hitters.

Whatever he's doing, I like it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Which, if you get rid of ERA and ERA+, is within standard error of his Twins' line (3.94 FIP vs 4.19 FIP is pretty insignificant with a SS = 6)

I don't really consider that insignificant. On the small-ish side but .25 ERA is the difference between a solid #3 and a guy who is edging toward being a #2.

 

And when we're talking about a guy with 13 seasons under his belt, I don't see the need to rely on FIP as much. Santana's ERA should become the standard after a certain number of innings, as it's a better indicator of actual on-field results. At some point in a person's career, we need to replace "what should happen" with "what did happen".

[zenser]

He cut off his dreads.

[DaveW]

Found better PEDs as well?

[ashbury]

Are the Twins (and maybe the Braves before them) babying his arm a bit? In yesterday's game he came out after 6 good innings, raising a topic for bleacher conversation. He used to routinely reach 210+ innings, while last year he reached only 181 in 30 starts (and in his suspension year there was simply less mileage to put on his arm).

 

Or, drilling down a little further, last year he finished with fewer than 3000 pitches, ditto for with Atlanta, whereas earlier he would go 3400 pitches in a season.

 

Dialing back only a little on his workload, if indeed his sweet spot has been found, might be what is paying dividends. "Give me what you've got for as long as you've got it" rather than "pace yourself for 8" - not just in terms of an individual game's results but for the long haul.

 

The other thing I looked at was the number of strikes thrown. A little counter-intuitively, he has been throwing fewer strikes as a Twin than his career norm, and thus slightly more pitches per plate appearance, even though the walk rate isn't up. Anything to that?

[DaveW]

Since June 2016 Ervin Santana has a 2.36 ERA, 2nd best in the AL behind Justin Verlander

[twinssporto]

 

Since June 2016 Ervin Santana has a 2.36 ERA, 2nd best in the AL behind Justin Verlander

Amazing stat.  The defense behind him this year is much better along with additional run support could help him put up some good numbers this year.

 

Will be fun to watch!

[Mike Sixel]

Most under rated Twin ever? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

well, I'd say he gets in pitchers counts often and uses those extra balls to entice some bad contact, but he's good enough to throw strikes when he needs to, keeping his walk rate low.

[Thrylos]

 

 

And when we're talking about a guy with 13 seasons under his belt, I don't see the need to rely on FIP as much. Santana's ERA should become the standard after a certain number of innings, as it's a better indicator of actual on-field results. At some point in a person's career, we need to replace "what should happen" with "what did happen".

 

FIP is "what happened".  xFIP (or SIERA) is "what should happen."  

[drjim]

fip is what happened, but also meaningless to the outcome of a baseball game since it doesn't measure outs or runs.

 

I'm pretty sure most analysts have moved on from xfip. The "x" adjustment had shown to be a bad assumption.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Someone check his locker for this.... Have to wake up arm. 

http://www.razorbloggers.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Jobu.jpg

Joboo ftw

[Comrade Bork]

Oh yeah they can take credit. 24 more roster slots to go. I care more about the whole.

[Brock Beauchamp]

FIP is "what happened". xFIP (or SIERA) is "what should happen."

I see your point bit FIP isn't technically what happened, as it assumes all non-home run contact is the same. Courtesy of pitchers like Ricky Nolasco, we know that simply is not a safe assumption to make.

 

Nolasco has been in the big leagues for 12 seasons. In 11 of those seasons, his ERA has been higher than his FIP. We know ERA isn't wrong - those runs happened - so that leaves the error in the lap of FIP.

 

FIP is a good metric but not without its faults. Once enough innings have been accrued, there are better indicators of ability, even some of the old ones like ERA.

[twinssporto]

 

Most under rated Twin ever? 

Agreed!  Maybe not as much as 87 Viola but close.

[jorgenswest]

Yes. They deserve credit. They have 1 very productive year out of 2. Hopefully the next 2 will continue to be league average or better. Two very good years out of the 4 would be more than what should have been expected when compared to pitchers of similar age and performance at the time of his signing.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I would look that dang good in a Twins rotation too.

[DJSim22]

 

Ervin Santana has a 2.36 ERA, 2nd best in the AL behind Justin Verlander

 

I wonder if everyone still thinks he's a #3?