2017 Minnesota Twins Breakout Candidate — Eddie Rosario?

[Brandon Warne]

As one of Rosario's most vocal critics I never had any idea I'd be writing this. Then I did some homework:

 

http://zonecoverage.com/2017/twins/2017-minnesota-twins-breakout-candidate-eddie-rosario/

 

As always, critiques and discussion are welcomed!

[BK432]

Interesting. Thanks for writing this up, Brandon. I don't think you'd disagree with my desire to believe a change can happen when I see it, but perhaps there is more to Rosario than what I've figured too. I'm willing to hope for it.

[GP830]

The book on Ed has always been that he swings at everything. I remember a thread of here a year ago asking if he was was maybe the best overall player on the team. Of course, most said no- despite a super promising rookie season.

 

I've been tempted to say similar things about Kepler prior to this year. Something about speedy outfielders with great defensive chops and a little pop brings it out in me, I guess.

 

I've always liked Rosario and would love to see him step up- he has such immense talent in some aspects of the game.

[GP830]

Great piece, by the way.

[TheLeviathan]

I sure hope so, I really am rooting for this kid.

[kab21]

The tools and raw hitting ability are certainly there. He will need to show atypical improvement to realize it. 

But if he only improves a little from his career averages and puts up a .275/.310/.450/.760 line with above average corner OF defense then he is an average or better starter. I can live with that. 

[The Wise One]

As yet, Rosario has not a single walk this spring. Hitting .375  is  better than walks

[AZTwin]

A few years ago when they were both in Beloit I said that Rosario would be the better pro than Sano. I might want to eat those words but sadly it's still wide open. Would love to see both these kids prove it one way or the other

[AZTwin]

To be fair when I said that I had Rosario as a 2B and thought he'd hold more value per position

[HitInAPinch]

I think the key to Rosario is concentration.  He goes on spurts, then seem to lose focus.  I think a comp to Puckett is possible:  Puckett was ALWAYS zoned in.  With 2 MLB seasons under his belt, I think a repeat of 2015 is possible.  Maybe better, if in the zone.

 

btw:  thanks for the interesting stats!

[iTwins]

Rosario has all the elements of a very good player. He has power - can use all fields (as evidenced in the OPS figures Brandon cited) - and has an elite arm in the OF. It's all just a matter of him putting it together consistently. He's young enough that I think it's still realistic to expect that to happen. 

 

I'm rooting for the kid - I hope this is the year it all falls into place. 

[gunnarthor]

Let's hope so. I don't think he needs to walk a ton but he does need to have better selectivity on what he does swing at.  If he can force the other team to throw strikes, he has enough natural talent to be a high average/high pop hitter.  But his rookie season is his ceiling if he can't improve that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Let's hope so. I don't think he needs to walk a ton but he does need to have better selectivity on what he does swing at.  If he can force the other team to throw strikes, he has enough natural talent to be a high average/high pop hitter.  But his rookie season is his ceiling if he can't improve that.

 

this.

 

I think he has the talent, but he really needs to figure out how to be selective somehow. I don't know how that works.

[markos]

One thing that wasn't mentioned in the article is that Rosario also swings and misses on pitches in the zone a lot. Of the 300 players with at least 500 PAs the past two seasons, Rosario is the 39th worst in terms of making contact when swinging at pitches in the strike zone. That isn't the be-all-end-all; however, when combined with his extreme aggressiveness on pitches outside the strike zone, it becomes a major liablity.

[Tom Froemming]

Enjoyed the piece, nice to see Eddie getting some love. He's a flawed player, no doubt, but it's easy to forget he's still only 25 and I think only had 100 PAs in AAA before his original call up.

 

To put it into perspective, he's a month older than Daniel Palka. Rosie has his rough edges, but he does a lot of things really well.

[GP830]

I often times wish there was a resource for non-numbers-minded people like myself to understand what the anticipated ceiling of a player is. As we well know, when a lot of scouts are saying a player has a high-ceiling, it doesn't necessarily mean they are Mike Trout. 

 

I'm guessing an okay comp for Rosario, should the best case scenario pan out, would be something close to a primetime Alex Rios. 

 

Is that accurate? 

[Dr. Evil]

Awesome article Brandon!

 

I have been pulling for Rosario for a long time. I think the guy could turn out to be one of our best players in the long run.

[gunnarthor]

 

I often times wish there was a resource for non-numbers-minded people like myself to understand what the anticipated ceiling of a player is. As we well know, when a lot of scouts are saying a player has a high-ceiling, it doesn't necessarily mean they are Mike Trout. 

 

I'm guessing an okay comp for Rosario, should the best case scenario pan out, would be something close to a primetime Alex Rios. 

 

Is that accurate? 

Rios played in a better offensive environment but he had a 118 OPS+ for his age 25-27 seasons.  I think Rosario's ceiling if it all comes together could be in that neighborhood.  Rosario can pick up a lot of WAR on his base running and defense as well. So it's not a horrible comparison, I suppose.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I just don't think he will ever have a decent BB%, so any successful years is going to have to very reliant on BABIP and a good contact rate. If his skills start to slip in the field, he becomes Danny Santana valueless.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I just don't think he will ever have a decent BB%, so any successful years is going to have to very reliant on BABIP and a good contact rate. If his skills start to slip in the field, he becomes Danny Santana valueless.

I don't believe he needs a decent BB rate, which I would consider somewhere in the 7-8% range.

 

If Rosario puts wood on the ball more often and walks 5-6% of the time, he could be a valuable player. He needs to improve his BB rate a bit but I see it as more of a swing decision issue than pursuing walks. If Eddie stops swinging at sliders in the dirt a foot wide of the plate, his BB rate will increase a bit but more importantly, he'll stop striking out on unhittable pitches and start putting the ball in play with more frequency. Rosario likes to swing and that's fine - not everything is about the BB - but Eddie needs to stop swinging at pitches he cannot hit.

 

But he'd also be the kind of player you usher out of the organization while he has value, because players like that tend to nosedive hard and fast as they approach or pass 30 years old. A loss of a step and/or a loss of bat speed turns them into pumpkins in a hurry.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A comparison of where Rosario is making mistakes, shown with comparisons of players with very different profiles:

 

Player name: Outside Zone Swing % / Zone Contact % / Outside Zone Contact %

 

Miguel Cabrera: 30% / 67% / 87%

Joe Mauer: 23% / 77% / 91%

Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79%

 

Rosario is swinging at way too many pitches outside the strike zone but his contact rate on those pitches is acceptable. So he either needs to stop swinging at those pitches - which would likely see an increase in his contact rate outside the zone - or he can take this route:

 

Vladimir Guerrero: 39% / 67% / 89%

Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79%

 

As we all know, Vlad never saw a pitch he didn't like. But notice how he hammered pitches in the zone, a full 10 points higher than Rosario. So, if Eddie remains intent on swinging at everything, he needs to put wood on the ball when it's in the strike zone.

 

Two paths, both can have success, but both require adjustment for Rosario.

[Doomtints]

ROSARIO MVP 17

[Vanimal46]

Rosario is always going to be one part intriguing, and another part frustrating.

 

When he's on at the plate, he's tearing the cover off the ball. When he's off, he's a near automatic out. We saw that in April/May last year.

 

That's the biggest concern since he doesn't draw walks. I don't expect him to draw a ton of walks, but it sure would make those slumps easier to handle if he did.

[Mike Sixel]

 

A comparison of where Rosario is making mistakes, shown with comparisons of players with very different profiles:

 

Player name: Outside Zone Swing % / Zone Contact % / Outside Zone Contact %

 

Miguel Cabrera: 30% / 67% / 87%

Joe Mauer: 23% / 77% / 91%

Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79%

 

Rosario is swinging at way too many pitches outside the strike zone but his contact rate on those pitches is acceptable. So he either needs to stop swinging at those pitches - which would likely see an increase in his contact rate outside the zone - or he can take this route:

 

Vladimir Guerrero: 39% / 67% / 89%

Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79%

 

As we all know, Vlad never saw a pitch he didn't like. But notice how he hammered pitches in the zone, a full 10 points higher than Rosario. So, if Eddie remains intent on swinging at everything, he needs to put wood on the ball when it's in the strike zone.

 

Two paths, both can have success, but both require adjustment for Rosario.

 

shouldn't we compare him to average players? These are HOF names.....they can do things no mortal can. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd be curious on those contact rates and if it is hard hit vs. soft hit. I'd be willing to bet that he's getting a lot more weak grounders on those pitches outside the plate than he is when it's in the zone.  Everyone is right, he doesn't need Mauer's patience.  But if a little of Mauer rubbed off on him, he'd be a very good hitter while being an above average corner defender.

[Steve Lein]

Easy explanation for all of this, and one I've held ever since seeing him in the minors:

 

Eddie is more or less a guess swinger combined with superb bat control. 

 

Yes, it would be great if he could lay off some pitches and draw more walks, but he's deciding he's swinging before a pitch is even thrown most of the time. He admitted as much after his home run from his first MLB at bat that you cite. He was swinging no matter what.

 

That's why you see him swing at pitches he has no business swinging at and looking silly for doing so, and missing a lot of other pitches because he's guessed wrong.

 

But, he's also very good at putting the bat on the ball on pitches he is able to touch when he's right, e.g.: the superb bat control.

 

He's gonna put a lot of pitches in play that he shouldn't because of that, and is what holds him back from putting up the batting lines you're hoping he will.

 

Every once in a while he's going to catch one like that pitch from Tomlin, but he's always going to be streaky depending on how he's doing on his guesses, and I don't find it quite likely that it's ever going to sway the way of benefiting him more than it hurts.

 

The Kirby Puckett reference is a little misleading to me as well because I have to ask the question: Do I expect Eddie to suddenly turn into .318 career hitter like Puckett, where he's so good at hitting the OBP becomes a moot point? No, I don't for the reasons mentioned above.

 

All that said, he's plenty capable of putting up enough numbers with his approach to be a fine player, he has already demonstrated that. But I do also think we've already seen pretty close to the best that he is capable of unless he does become more selective somehow. If I had to predict his career, .275/.310/.450 is about where I'd put him. 

[snepp]

Looking at plate discipline profiles and comparisons based upon his current numbers, Rosario profiles very similarly to Jeff Francoeur.

 

Fancoeur

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4792&position=OF#platediscipline

 

Rosario

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12155&position=OF#platediscipline

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

shouldn't we compare him to average players? These are HOF names.....they can do things no mortal can. 

They weren't meant to be direct comparisons, just an illustration how Rosario needs to alter his approach in one of a few ways to show more success.

 

Just because he profiles in contact rate similarly to Miguel Cabrera doesn't mean he'll turn into Miguel Cabrera. It'll just mean he's Eddie Rosario, only a little bit better than he is today.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Looking at plate discipline profiles and comparisons based upon his current numbers, Rosario profiles very similarly to Jeff Francoeur.

 

Fancoeur

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4792&position=OF#platediscipline

 

Rosario

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12155&position=OF#platediscipline

Similar, but a little bit worse. Francoeur has a lower swing rate outside the zone and a higher contact rate inside the zone.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Eddie is more or less a guess swinger combined with superb bat control.

Except he doesn't when you look at it. The guy had a 78% contact rate inside the zone last season.

 

Suberb bat control would be Mauer-esque with a low 90s contact rate inside the zone. Or even Ben Revere, who is also in the low 90s IIRC.

 

I wouldn't consider anyone elite with that contact rate below 87-88. Eddie has a long way to go to get to that point.