Don't Fret About Twins Prospect Rankings

[Mike Sixel]

just to make sure:

 

mike sixel
1:19 Which Burdi is the better Burdi?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:19 Haha, Zack. Both are nasty when healthy but Nick hasn't been and I think Zack has three pitches.

[mazeville]

 

Jay has had only 2 professional seasons and only one as a starter.  2.84 ERA and 68 K in 69-2/3 innings is not that bad in his first season as a starter at Fort Myers, is it?  Then he ran out of gas in 14 IP in AA.  I would not put him in the same sentence as Stewart, and give him another season or 2.  By then, he should be knocking on the Twins door

 

The Twins could have had Andrew Benintendi, Carson Fulmer, Ian Happ or Kolby Allard in that same draft.

 

I get that he is hardly a bust. But the Twins missed badly in that draft by not taking Benintendi. I don't think people thought he would be the prospect he has become, but he was hardly an unknown at the time. 

[gunnarthor]

 

The Twins could have had Andrew Benintendi, Carson Fulmer, Ian Happ or Kolby Allard in that same draft.

 

I get that he is hardly a bust. But the Twins missed badly in that draft by not taking Benintendi. I don't think people thought he would be the prospect he has become, but he was hardly an unknown at the time. 

No, the knock on him was his size - 5'10" - and weak arm.  If his defense slid a little bit he was the dreaded "tweener" not enough power for the corners and not enough defense for center. I remember really hoping Tate would fall to us (shows what I know). I'm ok with Jay over that list for now.  I think he can start and his stuff is still pretty exciting. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

To be fair, let's be more detailed with our facts.

 

They have had a pick in the top third of the draft order four out of the past five years. The consensus is that Buxton has star power, perhaps even super star power. The grade isn't in. Nor is it reasonable to conclude that none of Kiriloff, Gordon, or Jay will never be stars. Stewart, I'll fold my hand. BTW, they DID garner a top-rated farm system as a result in great part of the selection of Buxton, supplemented by Sano and other IFA sucess, etc. So you're right, the lack of current perceived star power, usually generated by two or three prospects, has caused the opinions of the system to plummet in the same way the star power of Buxton and Sano propelled opinions earlier. In both cases, I'd suggest the opinions are slightly exaggerated by this emphasis on star power.

 

They had a pick in the bottom third of the draft order four out of the five years previous. Gibson is the best of that lot. Not to defend them, but to add a fair context to these selections, I believe in four out of five cases, those selections have outperformed almost all the selections made five slots before and after they were selected.

 

I think you define "aggressively spending" in IFA markets as deciding to bust the pool. You opined that the Twins didn't cheat because they weren't as smart as other teams. Others speculate that it's because they're cheap. A minority, myself included, speculate that it is in large part an ethical decision, a view I hold because of some of my own personal experiences with the Pohlads.

 

I think it's accurate to say they're suffering a bit in the rankings because the cheaters gained ground at the expense of the non-cheaters. But I think we should be careful about criticizing them without knowing the circumstances here. 

 

I don't think it's fair to call it cheating. The system was created and agreed to by all teams. And the smart teams realized that it was more beneficial to accept the costs of exceeding their allotment than it was to stay within it every year. It's not "cheating" because anyone else was free to do so too. They didn't break a firm rule and try to get away with it, like paying players under the table. They played within the definitions of the system. It's no different than going over the luxury cap and paying a tax to do so.

[Thrylos]

 

The Twins could have had Andrew Benintendi, Carson Fulmer, Ian Happ or Kolby Allard in that same draft.

 

I get that he is hardly a bust. But the Twins missed badly in that draft by not taking Benintendi. I don't think people thought he would be the prospect he has become, but he was hardly an unknown at the time. 

 

He cannot pitch.  And I am not sure that the pitchers are better or will be better than Jay, at this point

[mazeville]

 

He cannot pitch.  And I am not sure that the pitchers are better or will be better than Jay, at this point

 

No, but are you saying you'd rather have Tyler Jay over Andrew Benintendi? Because if so, I have some things around my house I'm eager to barter ... 

[Mike Sixel]

I actually have (no idea why) high hopes for both Jay and Stewart still. But I'm not expert. And I don't see or talk to scouts that see, other teams' prospects at all. So, I just kind of have to rely on the experts, and they seem a bit down on the system. Nothing more or less than that. No one person is to blame. No one is evil. There seems to be some anger in some posts.....

[mazeville]

 

No, the knock on him was his size - 5'10" - and weak arm.  If his defense slid a little bit he was the dreaded "tweener" not enough power for the corners and not enough defense for center. I remember really hoping Tate would fall to us (shows what I know). I'm ok with Jay over that list for now.  I think he can start and his stuff is still pretty exciting. 

 

And yet that undersized player with the weak arm is the top prospect in baseball ... 

[TheLeviathan]

 

That they determined to spend more aggressively under Smith is a fallacy that gets constantly promoted here. The spending you and others see as proof, Sano in particular, was a product of opportunity, not some change in attitude or strategy. Sano would have been signed under Ryan. I'd love to bet my entire net worth on that and double it.

 

No Twins owner or official has ever explained why the Twins elected to avoid busting the IFA pool. That doesn't stop people from thinking they know why, but they're speculating.

 

Except it's not false.  Terry Ryan was GM for about 4-5 times the length of time that Smith was, what has his international spending netted the team in all those years?

 

Because in the short time Smith was in charge we landed Sano, Polanco, Kepler, and Romero.

 

Chalking up a difference like that to coincidence defies basic common sense and statistics.  

[mazeville]

 

Aside from some "iffy" picks, I think the biggest reason the Twins farm system lacks talent compared to some others is the team's refusal to bust the international budget every other year like the smart teams did.

 

This. 

 

That, and the team's refusal to make trades even when it was clear they weren't going to compete. (I'll give them a pass for not trading Dozier or Santana this past offseason)

[bird]

 

I don't like the use of the word cheaters.

 

Teams were allowed to sign players for more money, that then resulted in not being able to spend money in future years. Those were the rules. The rules did not say you couldn't spend more money. Those rules were followed, except 1 time by the BoSox, who were punished. 

 

This illustrates my point about judging a team for NOT breaking the rules. In the home I grew up in breaking the rules was called cheating. We didn't call it something else based on the punishment.  The teams that did not break the rules were cheated by the teams that did, period. I like the word a lot. 

 

You see, Mike, you're a lot like my mom was. My brothers and I were assigned new bike riding boundaries every year. My two brothers followed the rules to the T. I rode all the way down to the railroad tracks with my friends and threw stuff at the trains and came home feeling guilty, But ah, the lure of the trains... Years later, when I asked my mom if she knew I had cheated on my boundaries, she said, "Hell yeah. That's why the boundaries were so damn strict, son." So, in that regard, I see your point. I mean, some might think my two brothers were stupid. But yeah, my brothers still think I cheated.

[mazeville]

 

Yes, the Yankees did a great job of leveraging their money to impact their farm system.

 

The Yankees traded Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller at peak value at the deadline, bringing in a bunch of top prospects in return. 

 

The Twins haven't done much of that -- even when they had players who could have fetched a decent return. They just didn't pull the trigger. 

[Steve Lein]

Compare such rankings to "top players under 25" and I think the outcome would be much different... Thus I agree with the article's premise.

[Taildragger8791]

 

This illustrates my point about judging a team for NOT breaking the rules. In the home I grew up in breaking the rules was called cheating. We didn't call it something else based on the punishment.  The teams that did not break the rules were cheated by the teams that did, period. I like the word a lot. 

 

You see, Mike, you're a lot like my mom was. My brothers and I were assigned new bike riding boundaries every year. My two brothers followed the rules to the T. I rode all the way down to the railroad tracks with my friends and threw stuff at the trains and came home feeling guilty, But ah, the lure of the trains... Years later, when I asked my mom if she knew I had cheated on my boundaries, she said, "Hell yeah. That's why the boundaries were so damn strict, son." So, in that regard, I see your point. I mean, some might think my two brothers were stupid. But yeah, my brothers still think I cheated.

 

If it was truly intended to be a strict rule then the punishment should have reflected that. Instead it was implemented as more like a soft cap and a luxury tax, something that's existed in sports for a while and a handful of teams exceed when it's deemed to be worth it.

 

Personally, I think it's a dumb system and I'm glad they changed it. But I'd be lying if I didn't admit that one reason I dislike it is because the Twins would never have the gumption to exploit it like other teams did.

 

And let's not pretend like the Pohlads aren't adroit businessmen who are used to exploiting byzantine rules/laws/systems for their benefit. Heck, you don't have to look any further than Target Field to see one prime example.

[TheLeviathan]

 

This illustrates my point about judging a team for NOT breaking the rules. In the home I grew up in breaking the rules was called cheating. We didn't call it something else based on the punishment.  The teams that did not break the rules were cheated by the teams that did, period. I like the word a lot. 

 

You see, Mike, you're a lot like my mom was. My brothers and I were assigned new bike riding boundaries every year. My two brothers followed the rules to the T. I rode all the way down to the railroad tracks with my friends and threw stuff at the trains and came home feeling guilty, But ah, the lure of the trains... Years later, when I asked my mom if she knew I had cheated on my boundaries, she said, "Hell yeah. That's why the boundaries were so damn strict, son." So, in that regard, I see your point. I mean, some might think my two brothers were stupid. But yeah, my brothers still think I cheated.

 

Except, in your scenario bird, you would have to be choosing to break the rules knowing there would be a consequence.  If you did so, you didn't cheat, you just accepted those consequences as part of your decision.

 

That's what these teams did.  They agreed to the rules, knew the punishment, acted, and accepted the punishment.  That's not cheating, that's just making a choice.

[markos]

 

Except, in your scenario bird, you would have to be choosing to break the rules knowing there would be a consequence.  If you did so, you didn't cheat, you just accepted those consequences as part of your decision.

 

That's what these teams did.  They agreed to the rules, knew the punishment, acted, and accepted the punishment.  That's not cheating, that's just making a choice.

Right. Is it "cheating" to make an early withdraw from your 401K provided you pay the extra tax? It is one thing to try to avoid getting caught when breaking the rules. It is another thing to accept the penalties.

[bird]

 

Except it's not false.  Terry Ryan was GM for about 4-5 times the length of time that Smith was, what has his international spending netted the team in all those years?

 

Because in the short time Smith was in charge we landed Sano, Polanco, Kepler, and Romero.

 

Chalking up a difference like that to coincidence defies basic common sense and statistics.  

 

 

It's a preposterous fallacy IMO. It's happenstance that those were four opportunities that overlapped part of Smith's time in the GM's chair. There's nothing nonsensical about it. You choose to use a few examples and ignore that other IFA signings took place both before and after Smith, a number of which involved more money than the examples you argue are proof of Smith's independent largesse. And again, it's mostly this illogical and nonsensical notion of Smith's role that I find so perplexing. 

 

Neither Ryan or Smith ever set the budget for spending. Neither Ryan or Smith ever signed a major IFA contract without many people weighing in. Neither ever had the authority to do it. Period.

 

And again, you act as if no large contract spending has ever taken place outside of your four examples, of your beloved Smith Era, Levi. That defies the truth of the matter.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This illustrates my point about judging a team for NOT breaking the rules. In the home I grew up in breaking the rules was called cheating. We didn't call it something else based on the punishment.  The teams that did not break the rules were cheated by the teams that did, period. I like the word a lot. 

 

You see, Mike, you're a lot like my mom was. My brothers and I were assigned new bike riding boundaries every year. My two brothers followed the rules to the T. I rode all the way down to the railroad tracks with my friends and threw stuff at the trains and came home feeling guilty, But ah, the lure of the trains... Years later, when I asked my mom if she knew I had cheated on my boundaries, she said, "Hell yeah. That's why the boundaries were so damn strict, son." So, in that regard, I see your point. I mean, some might think my two brothers were stupid. But yeah, my brothers still think I cheated.

 

Except your mom didn't say "if you go further, you have to pay me $1, and I'm ok if you do that".....like the rules stated. IMO, totally different. I think we just disagree on what the rules were. 

 

I read them as "if you do this, that's cool, but it will cost you that".

 

You, I think, read them as "if you do this, the punishment is this, and I'm not cool with that".

[Squirrel]

 

I don't like the use of the word cheaters.

 

 

 

I don't think it's fair to call it cheating.

 

Moderator note: Neither do I. For those that want to say 'cheaters,' stop. Perhaps you disagree on ethical grounds how it works, so argue that from your own personal stance; but except for the Boston case, in which they were cited punitively, the rules were followed, so please stop phrasing it as 'cheating' as it is inflammatory and disrespectful.

[bird]

 

Right. Is it "cheating" to make an early withdraw from your 401K provided you pay the extra tax? It is one thing to try to avoid getting caught when breaking the rules. It is another thing to accept the penalties.

 

 

If you take an early withdrawal from your 401k you are not breaching a contractual agreement. There's nothing in your 401k documentation where you promise not to make an early withdrawal. The CBA agreement, which I read, contained language, albeit poorly worded, whereby every team agreed to abide by the pool. The clear intent, from the beginning, was that every team would abide by the pool. Does anyone disagree with this premise?

 

The more important concept is this: if you withdraw your retirement funds and share it with your spouse, perhaps you've cheated no one. If you bust the IFA pool, it has a deleterious effect on those participants to the agreement who were counting on you to not breach the agreement. 

 

The penalties are completely irrelevant to the ethical argument about what constitutes a wrongful breach of a contract and what doesn't. Knowing you're going to get caught is also irrelevant. Why is it so difficult to see that, if you breach an agreement and it's harmful to other parties to the agreement, that a vast majority in our society would view the behavior as wrong, as unethical?

 

I'm perfectly fine with any of you having zero ethical problems with what teams who busted the pool did. Just don't cast dispersion upon those who decided against doing so if you're unclear as to whether their ethics played a role in the decision, okay?

[Craig Arko]

 

Wrote about how I'm not worried that the Twins are coming off a 100-loss season with a middling farm system here: 

 

http://zonecoverage.com/2017/twins/dont-fret-about-twins-prospect-rankings/

 

As always, discussion and critiques are welcome.

Read your article. Understood and agree.

 

But then I'm not one to fret much about this sort of thing anyway.  

[Vanimal46]

 

Compare such rankings to "top players under 25" and I think the outcome would be much different... Thus I agree with the article's premise.

 

If we moved the goal posts to top players under 25, they'll still get crushed by the Cubs, Yankees, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, etc. 

This is the team breakdown of the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list.... I'm sure each team probably has a guy or 2 under 25 they could add to the list too. 

 

8 - Braves
7 - Yankees
6 - Brewers
5 - White Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Rays, Astros, Rockies, Pirates
4 - Dodgers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Athletics
3 - Red Sox, Mets, Reds, Indians
2 - Twins, Nationals, Mariners
1 - Giants, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Tigers, Orioles, Rangers

[Mike Sixel]

 

If we moved the goal posts to top players under 25, they'll still get crushed by the Cubs, Yankees, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, etc. 

This is the team breakdown of the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list.... I'm sure each team probably has a guy or 2 under 25 they could add to the list too. 

 

8 - Braves
7 - Yankees
6 - Brewers
5 - White Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Rays, Astros, Rockies, Pirates
4 - Dodgers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Athletics
3 - Red Sox, Mets, Reds, Indians
2 - Twins, Nationals, Mariners
1 - Giants, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Tigers, Orioles, Rangers

 

I think he meant to include MLB players under 25......of which the Twins have Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco.

 

I don't have time to look at the rest of baseball, but if you filter on team WAR under 25 years old, the Twins were 15th last year.....and several of those players are no longer under 25.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No, but are you saying you'd rather have Tyler Jay over Andrew Benintendi? Because if so, I have some things around my house I'm eager to barter ... 

 

I think my issue here is that it is easy to look at this with hindsight and say the Twins screwed up. The Twins drafted 4th that year, and that also means that all the prognosticators and scouts across baseball screwed up too, because no one saw what would happen. Benintendi is a good prospect, but he had questions... enough of which to drop him down significantly. There was no chatter about him going one overall that year, and for good reason.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think he meant to include MLB players under 25......of which the Twins have Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco.

 

I don't have time to look at the rest of baseball, but if you filter on team WAR under 25 years old, the Twins were 15th last year.....and several of those players are no longer under 25.

 

I get his point... So that would take the number to 7. Meanwhile the Cubs have Schwarber, Contreras, Baez, Bryant, Russell...  There are a plenty of teams that have good to very good MLB players under 25 as well. I don't think his point that the outlook would be better if we moved the goalposts is a good one. 

[Thrylos]

 

No, but are you saying you'd rather have Tyler Jay over Andrew Benintendi? 

 

No. For sure.  But you are comparing apples with pineapples.   LHSP is a major sore with the Twins organization.  OF is not that much

[mazeville]

 

No. For sure.  But you are comparing apples with pineapples.   LHSP is a major sore with the Twins organization.  OF is not that much

 

Sure, I get that. 

 

But when you're drafting that high, you draft the best available player and sort it out later. I don't think Tyler Jay is a bust. But the Twins had the chance to draft Benintendi and didn't. That's a failure, any way you cut it. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

It's a preposterous fallacy IMO. It's happenstance that those were four opportunities that overlapped part of Smith's time in the GM's chair. 

 

It's awfully convenient (and ridiculously improbable) that the only four noteworthy IFAs the team could have had happened in a 4 year island of Smith surrounded by a sea of 20 years of Ryan.

 

You should probably take heed of your own take on this.  This likely had far less to do with "opportunity" and more to do with "philosophy".  And that's fine, Ryan's philosophy can eschew that angle of talent acquisition on whatever grounds he wants, but that has consequences.  And for this team those consequences are largely not positive.

 

You're welcome to list all of Ryan's grand international accomplishments, both in scope and success.  I mean, if he really was doing the same thing there should be ample examples from his 20 year run compared to a 4 year run.  My memory says your list will be short, but maybe I'm wrong.

[DocBauer]

Just curious, but this same time next year, after some very high draft choices in the first 34 picks, and continued showings by Gonsalves, Jay, Romero and others, and the organization is sudden ranked in the top 10, does all the angst go away?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just curious, but this same time next year, after some very high draft choices in the first 34 picks, and continued showings by Gonsalves, Jay, Romero and others, and the organization is sudden ranked in the top 10, does all the angst go away?

 

If everything goes perfectly, will we all be happier? Yes, yes I will. I can't speak for others. That seems like a big IF though.