Don't Fret About Twins Prospect Rankings

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sucks that for 6 years now they've been unlucky. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact they drafted and developed poorly and have no veterans to trade....

They haven't only been unlucky but they've been pretty damned unlucky.

 

Look at 2011. You have a 28 year old Mauer, a 30 year old Morneau, a 27 year old Liriano, a 29 year old Baker, a 32 year old Cuddyer, and a 29 year old Kubel who all imploded damned near simultaneously.

 

That was the core of a 94 win team the previous season.

 

Were mistakes made? Yes, absolutely... But we're talking about three players with 6+ WAR potential and three more with 3+ WAR potential who all fell flat on their face at virtually the same time.

 

That's some pretty **** luck right there and the kind of disaster season from which it's hard to recover.

 

That doesn't excuse later mistakes but there's nothing wrong with acknowledging how sometimes, things just go to hell and it's out of anyone's control.

[Mike Sixel]

I won't deny they have had bad luck. I can't accept that their issues are mostly about luck. Not over this much time. I have said many times they've had bad luck, but some people here, imo, seem to think its only been luck....

[Willihammer]

There are also some mitigating factors to the bad luck.

 

There were a lot of people who thought it unwise to continue playing a 183m player with a twice surgically repaired knee at catcher prior to 2011 when the bilateral leg weakness hoopla started. Moving him to third or left field might have prevented that.

 

Liriano flopped in 2011, how much of that is on the pitching coaches? Sure seemed to do okay in Pittsburgh.

 

Cuddyer actually had a fine year in 2011. Why didn't we trade him again?

[TheLeviathan]

 

You have much more faith than I. The only significant payroll push the Pohlads have allowed was basically Mauer's huge contract with the tax funded Target Field. Probably not a coincidence. Payroll might get to 120 but there's no way the Pohlad's are going to give Sano and Buxton Mauer-like money (if they earn it).

 

I would suggest it's not about my faith or lack of faith in the Pohlads.  (i assure you, I share your disdain for their part in this as well) I think this has more to do with the deference you give to Ryan.

 

I see him as very much a part of the problem.  Independent of whatever problems the Pohalds presented.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I won't deny they have had bad luck. I can't accept that their issues are mostly about luck. Not over this much time. I have said many times they've had bad luck, but some people here, imo, seem to think its only been luck....

No, it's definitely not only luck, I'm just kinda responding to the idea some people had that the Twins squandered their best veterans instead of trading them. The reality is that most of their best veterans lost all value suddenly and never recovered that value, which directly led to the Twins long losing streak.

 

The team went from 94 wins to 63 wins in a single season while their core was still under 30 years old. What kind of veteran trade value exists at that point?

 

Sure, they could have traded Cuddyer but he turned into Berrios so that worked out. The only questionable moves I see are Perkins and Willingham, though I don't think Willingham's value was ever terribly high (as we've seen teams devalue no-field sluggers over the past half decade). That leaves Perkins, really.

 

So, yeah, some bad decisions in there but the way I see it, the Twins didn't have many valuable commodities after 2011 to trade so the possible gains in liquidating the roster is still relatively small (but should be better than it is today had a few more moves been made).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Liriano flopped in 2011, how much of that is on the pitching coaches? Sure seemed to do okay in Pittsburgh.

 

Cuddyer actually had a fine year in 2011. Why didn't we trade him again?

Liriano posted the following fWAR numbers after leaving the Twins:

 

2013: 3.3

2014: 1.8

2015: 3.6

2016: 0.4

 

He pitched 160 or more innings in all years. Should the Twins have received more performance from Liriano? Sure. But how much more performance? People seem to act as if he posted multiple 5 WAR seasons in Pittsburgh. He was decent, but sporadic... Not unlike his time with the Twins, except he wasn't injured all the freakin' time in Pittsburgh.

 

As for Cuddyer, yeah, he probably should have been traded but that inaction led to Berrios so it's pretty hard to complain too much.

[Mike Sixel]

Agree with the point on moving Mauer for sure......that should have been done much earlier, as many here and elsewhere said at the time.

[Willihammer]

 

Liriano posted the following fWAR numbers after leaving the Twins:

 

2013: 3.3

2014: 1.8

2015: 3.6

2016: 0.4

 

He pitched 160 or more innings in all years. Should the Twins have received more performance from Liriano? Sure. But how much more performance? People seem to act as if he posted multiple 5 WAR seasons in Pittsburgh. He was decent, but sporadic... Not unlike his time with the Twins, except he wasn't injured all the freakin' time in Pittsburgh.

 

As for Cuddyer, yeah, he probably should have been traded but that inaction led to Berrios so it's pretty hard to complain too much.

Good point about Cuddyer. TBH I have no memory of the trade deadline that year, maybe a #32 - type talent was never in play.

You're never going to convince me that the Twins handling of Liriano was anything less than a massive squandering of talent. We traded a perfectly capable #3 for Ed freaking Escobar. At a time when the starting staff had sunk to historic lows and is still there to this day. Liriano? Don't need him. Head case. Give me a freaking break.

[Mr. Brooks]

Right. Yes, there was a budget of some kind. But the budget didn't say "Sign Tony Bautista and Rondell White". Terry Ryan made that decision. And he made that decision based on his own beliefs about contracts.

 

To your example - we didn't avoid Sanchez because we couldn't sign him. We avoided Sanchez (and many other examples over the years) because that was "too much" for one player.

 

That's Ryan, not the Pohlads. I also believe our total lack of splashy mid-season trades or offseason acquisitions to put us over the top also had mostly to do with Ryan, not the Pohlads.

 

I also struggle to hear people say "Yes, Ryan was a penny pincher" but then allege, somehow, that his penny pinching ways didn't impact his total lack of IFA success. That doesn't jive.

 

But these next 5 years might prove me wrong. I just wouldn't bet on it.

Sure, what Ryan does with his budget is on him. But I think his rhetoric about the Pohlads was mostly him falling on the sword for thrifty owners.

I would have liked to see more risk from Ryan- sometimes going all in on an impact player instead of rationing his budget across several safe signings.

However, that said, I just find it hard to believe that he would intentionally spend significantly below budget.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Good point about Cuddyer. TBH I have no memory of the trade deadline that year, maybe a #32 - type talent was never in play.

You're never going to convince me that the Twins handling of Liriano was anything less than a massive squandering of talent. We traded a perfectly capable #3 for Ed freaking Escobar. At a time when the starting staff had sunk to historic lows and is still there to this day. Liriano? Don't need him. Head case. Give me a freaking break.

Ah, I misunderstood your point. If your argument was the Twins should have kept Liriano, then that makes more sense. I was speaking strictly in the trade sense. Liriano didn't have anything more than Escobar talent when he was traded (nor was his value significantly higher the season before that).

[Mr. Brooks]

They haven't only been unlucky but they've been pretty damned unlucky.

 

Look at 2011. You have a 28 year old Mauer, a 30 year old Morneau, a 27 year old Liriano, a 29 year old Baker, a 32 year old Cuddyer, and a 29 year old Kubel who all imploded damned near simultaneously.

 

That was the core of a 94 win team the previous season.

 

Were mistakes made? Yes, absolutely... But we're talking about three players with 6+ WAR potential and three more with 3+ WAR potential who all fell flat on their face at virtually the same time.

 

That's some pretty **** luck right there and the kind of disaster season from which it's hard to recover.

 

That doesn't excuse later mistakes but there's nothing wrong with acknowledging how sometimes, things just go to hell and it's out of anyone's control.

That applies to every franchise though. Not over a small sample like one season, but over say a decade, the luck is going to even out.

When one team appears to get more or less unlucky over a span of several seasons then it's likely due to skill, not luck.

 

For example, you could say that the Twins got pretty lucky that ESan and Dozier had great seasons last year. Both are on reasonable to friendly contracts, and it happened right in the middle of a regime changing rebuild. Most teams in a rebuild would love to have cheap, proven tradeable assets like that.

However, we chose to double down and try to get more at the deadline or next offseason.

I guarantee that if they don't work out, there are some here claiming they got unlucky that those 2 assets lost value, even though we pushed our luck by declining to trade them when they were already right around peak value.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sure, what Ryan does with his budget is on him. But I think his rhetoric about the Pohlads was mostly him falling on the sword for thrifty owners.
I would have liked to see more risk from Ryan- sometimes going all in on an impact player instead of rationing his budget across several safe signings.
However, that said, I just find it hard to believe that he would intentionally spend significantly below budget.

 

I disagree, but I admit it's speculation.  I think the picture will be clearer in a few years, but my vibe on Ryan's tenure was that he did, in fact, underspend what was allowed.  And that he made no effort to push for more allowance.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That applies to every franchise though. Not over a small sample like one season, but over say a decade, the luck is going to even out.
When one team appears to get more or less unlucky over a span of several seasons then it's likely due to skill, not luck.

For example, you could say that the Twins got pretty lucky that ESan and Dozier had great seasons last year. Both are on reasonable to friendly contracts, and it happened right in the middle of a regime changing rebuild. Most teams in a rebuild would love to have cheap, proven tradeable assets like that.
However, we chose to double down and try to get more at the deadline or next offseason.
I guarantee that if they don't work out, there are some here claiming they got unlucky that those 2 assets lost value, even though we pushed our luck by declining to trade them when they were already right around peak value.

 

100% this. It won't be bad luck if they don't get much for ESan and/or Dozier, it will be on them.

[Mr. Brooks]

I disagree, but I admit it's speculation. I think the picture will be clearer in a few years, but my vibe on Ryan's tenure was that he did, in fact, underspend what was allowed. And that he made no effort to push for more allowance.

Correct, we should find out soon enough.

Keep on mind though that the new regime has already preemptively stated on several occasions that you don't need payroll to build a winner. Benign comments maybe, but also maybe tempering us for later when they face the same constraints.

I'll be very interested in 3 things:

1) Seeing if we make a legit attempt at any of the elite free agents that start coming onto the market next year and especially in 2 years.

2) Seeing if they commit to keeping Buxton and Sano long term if they both hit their ceilings.

3) Seeing if they make an all in move the next time we are one or 2 players away- something Ryan never did.

[bird]

 

Sucks that for 6 years now they've been unlucky. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact they drafted and developed poorly and have no veterans to trade....

 

 

Compared to....? You knew I'd ask that...

 

Not to obscure what Pseudo and markos are talking about though, I think we can all agree that, in a broad sense, the returns for all those players should have been better. Some of us think much better. Maybe we can all agree that there was at least some bad luck as a contributing factor to sub-optimal returns. Most of us would probably concede that they squandered some opportunities as well. And then there were the frighteningly bad trades involving Ramos, Delmon Young, Hardy...(shudders*). 

 

Bottom line: had we gotten better results in more of these trades, and had we executed a more thoughtful sell discipline with regards to players near the end of their control windows, etc., we would have enjoyed two benefits. One, our rebuild would have been more efficacious, and two, our prospect pipeline today would include more talent.

[DaveW]

I don't fret about the prospect rankings, I fret because they maybe have two guys in the org who look like they potentially have a decent chance to be #3 or better SP types.

 

They need a lot more high upside arms because I will stop "fretting".

 

Ryan and co destroyed this franchise over the last 6 years. Hopefully the new regime can fix things post haste.

[Doomtints]

 

They haven't only been unlucky but they've been pretty damned unlucky.

 

Strange how unlucky and cheap tend to go together with all professional sports teams.

[TheLeviathan]

With Tyler Jay moving to the bullpen this thread seems relevant again.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

With Tyler Jay moving to the bullpen this thread seems relevant again.....

Jay moved to the pen?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ah, I see the article now. Okay, don't really like that move but I have faith Falvey and Levine know more about the situation than I do.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Ah, I see the article now. Okay, don't really like that move but I have faith Falvey and Levine know more about the situation than I do.

 

They know more than me too, but that doesn't make me feel better about the state of our farm's starting pitching options.

[drjim]

They know more than me too, but that doesn't make me feel better about the state of our farm's starting pitching options.

I'm not exactly sure how anyone could feel *good* about the current options.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'm not exactly sure how anyone could feel *good* about the current options.

 

Well here you have a thread with multiple people trying to argue exactly that!  Enjoy!

 

I marvel at the gymnastics, it's quite impressive.

[DaveW]

As it stands now: the Twins current rotation is probably one of the worst 5 in all of MLB. Depth wise in the minors? Prob worst 5 in the MLB.

 

They are going to pull off some nifty trades, signings or catch some serious lightning in 2-3 bottles to get this club back to a playoff contending rotation.

 

Not sure we can just count on finding the next Johan Santana in the rule 5 draft or getting a Liriano type thrown into a lopsided trade....

 

At some point this org needs to figure out how to develop some front end starting pitching. Garza, Berrios, Gonzalves are about the only ones they have developed in the last 10 years.

 

Not good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They know more than me too, but that doesn't make me feel better about the state of our farm's starting pitching options.

Oh I didn't mean to imply that the news doesn't suck. But it may be the correct decision.

 

Unfortunate, though.

[drjim]

Well here you have a thread with multiple people trying to argue exactly that! Enjoy!

 

I marvel at the gymnastics, it's quite impressive.

Seems I missed a riveting thread.

[Mike Sixel]

When would some of you fret?

[gunnarthor]

 

Seems I missed a riveting thread.

Meh, you've seen it elsewhere.