Don't Fret About Twins Prospect Rankings

[Mike Sixel]

 

I completely agree that it's pointless to say they should do it differently. It is equally pointless to say they "can't" do it any differently.

 

Sigh. change the word to "won't" in my sentence. Feel better now? Is my argument really any different, that they have to be better than other teams at developing players, now that I said "won't" and not "can't"?

 

And, I'm not sure you are right about can't.....they don't have a big tv contract at all.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm convinced the Pohlads were only a partial issue.  Maybe I'd accept a majority of the issue like 60/40, but not entirely them.

 

I'll be more than willing to make that 90/10 if this new regime also feels handcuffed, but I think our prior FO willingly hand-cuffed themselves plenty of times.  Until I can separate Ryan's beliefs from the Pohlad's strict operating directions, I wouldn't lay it all on them.

[bird]

 

Your litany of excuses (and I'm sorry, that's what they are) would possibly work if we were talking about two relatively short periods of time.  But we're not.  One period of time was very long and includes an example of an IFA that was perhaps the best of the last 20 years.  A gentleman we know the Twins could have had, under Ryan, with a willingness to spend more.  Instead that gentleman signed with Florida.  Over money.

 

Best of my recollection Luis Rivas is the best player Ryan ever signed.  We (not even arguably in my book) have at least four significantly superior guys signed by Smith on the Twins 40 man roster right now.  We don't need your list.  It doesn't exist.  It stinks.  That's the whole point.  And if you want to blame the scouts - who the hell is in charge of them?  Did they just suddenly become competent for an oasis of 4 years and then, magically, go back to incompetence?

 

To suggest Terry Ryan was general manager of the team for nearly 20 years and merely, by some bad luck, had no similar "opportunities" to use dollars to sign better IFAs strains credulity.  And that's putting it very, very nicely.  And that's not even including the facts we know about the gentleman above.  Or the nickel and dime approach to FA for 20 years.  Or the 20 year track record of unwillingness to spend money being a recurring theme under his tenure.

 

Why?  Why work so hard to basically stare the simplest explanation in the face and reject it?  We have reason to fret, in part, because the guy's effort you're working so damn hard to spin hasn't utilized effectively all options available to a GM. 

 

I hope we have magical luck this year and everything comes up roses.  I really do.  Otherwise this young offensive core we have will be wasted.  I hope our new FO does what the previous regime was so damn reluctant to do - explore ALL options.  Aggressively.  

 

 

Ah, so your answer is that you ARE going to fail to consider any other factor that truthfully and accurately explains both the past failings and successes of the team's IFA efforts. Okay. Thanks. 

[bird]

 

I think the main reason for the minor league thinness is that the Twins, for nearly a decade, squandered (or lost to injury*) their major league assets until they were bereft of value (Lohse, Valencia, Liriano etc.); those that retained their value became free agents (Cuddyer, Hunter).  And the trades they did make just haven't panned out (Span, Revere, Santana).    

 

When the Twins crashed after 2010, they crashed suddenly and precipitously; leaving the team with little minor league or major league assets from which to rebuild.   Competing in 2010, when the need to rebuild was probably foreseeable, may have been the worse thing for any possible quick turn-around. 

 

*Mauer, Morneau, Baker, Koskie, etc.

 

 

I very much agree with this take. You described the team's historic achilles heel IMO.  They've had a huge asset management problem throughout Ryan's reign.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm convinced the Pohlads were only a partial issue.  Maybe I'd accept a majority of the issue like 60/40, but not entirely them.

 

I'll be more than willing to make that 90/10 if this new regime also feels handcuffed, but I think our prior FO willingly hand-cuffed themselves plenty of times.  Until I can separate Ryan's beliefs from the Pohlad's strict operating directions, I wouldn't lay it all on them.

I mean, to each his own but Ryan didn't want to contract the team, the owner did. The Pohlad family didn't go over recommend slot because they were close personal friends to Selig.  Ryan didn't con the tax payers into paying for a new stadium that greatly benefited the Pohlads. Ryan isn't the one who set the fake 52% payroll theory. Ryan wasn't the one that cried foul on baseball economics for a ****ing decade while we slashed our payroll.

 

Ryan played the good solider. Smith was fired when he didn't. Falvey and Lavine aren't going to have any more room to spend in FA than their predecessors did. Maybe they'll spend better, maybe not. But FA isn't going to fix the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I very much agree with this take. You described the team's historic achilles heel IMO.  They've had a huge asset management problem throughout Ryan's reign.

 

We 100% agree on that!

[gunnarthor]

 

I think the main reason for the minor league thinness is that the Twins, for nearly a decade, squandered (or lost to injury*) their major league assets until they were bereft of value (Lohse, Valencia, Liriano etc.); those that retained their value became free agents (Cuddyer, Hunter).  And the trades they did make just haven't panned out (Span, Revere, Santana).    

 

When the Twins crashed after 2010, they crashed suddenly and precipitously; leaving the team with little minor league or major league assets from which to rebuild.   Competing in 2010, when the need to rebuild was probably foreseeable, may have been the worse thing for any possible quick turn-around. 

 

*Mauer, Morneau, Baker, Koskie, etc.

I guess I'm not following your logic here. If you're talking about the Twins not trading Mauer, Morneau, Baker, Koskie et al, you're talking about not trading key parts of winning baseball teams. I'm not sure there was ever a good period to trade Morneau, for example, although I do remember people advocating trading him in early 06 for Ty Wigginton. (Losing Cuddy and Koskie and Hunter and Everyday Eddie and Hawkins actually gave the Twins multiple draft picks under the CBA at the time). Koskie was the starting third baseman for three straight playoff teams, why would we trade him? During the early 2000s, the rip on the Twins was that they kept trading away players or letting them leave by FA to get draft picks. Smith did a fair job locking up a young nucleus of players through their first year of free agency but that was about it, other than Mauer and Morneau.  

 

If you think the Twins should have traded those guys while they were still cost controlled because they weren't going to win a world series, wouldn't you be advocating trading Sano now?  I agree that the 2011 crash was really hampered by the injuries that key players got but Mauer was already under contract.  Cuddy turned into Berrios. Liriano and Young just failed to develop, which was a real problem but I'm not sure it was realistic to expect either to have been traded right after the 2010 season (although in hindsight that would have been the time).  So I'm not sure what moves would have been realistic at the time.  Sure, Valencia had a nice rookie season but no one thought he was anything better than a serviceable third baseman, for instance. Trading him after the 2010 season wasn't going to bring much back.

[Thrylos]

 

I mean, to each his own but Ryan didn't want to contract the team, the owner did.

 

 

 

Exactly, that's why Ryan quit when he found out that the Pohlads were going to contract the team

 

Nope he was the architect of the contraction.  It was his decision to stay there and morph that roster into a horrible team that nobody would care if it were contracted.

 

Or am I wrong?

 

Staying there and working towards contraction is aiding and abetting... 

[gunnarthor]

 

Exactly, that's why Ryan quit when he found out that the Pohlads were going to contract the team

 

Nope he was the architect of the contraction.  It was his decision to stay there and morph that roster into a horrible team that nobody would care if it were contracted.

 

Or am I wrong?

 

Staying there and working towards contraction is aiding and abetting... 

Well ... that's one view

[TheLeviathan]

 

I mean, to each his own but Ryan didn't want to contract the team, the owner did. The Pohlad family didn't go over recommend slot because they were close personal friends to Selig.  Ryan didn't con the tax payers into paying for a new stadium that greatly benefited the Pohlads. Ryan isn't the one who set the fake 52% payroll theory. Ryan wasn't the one that cried foul on baseball economics for a ****ing decade while we slashed our payroll.

 

Ryan played the good solider. Smith was fired when he didn't. Falvey and Lavine aren't going to have any more room to spend in FA than their predecessors did. Maybe they'll spend better, maybe not. But FA isn't going to fix the Twins.

 

I do agree with your second paragraph.  I think Smith was partially let go because he was more aggressive and his results didn't reflect that.  That wasn't entirely his fault either, but i do think that's accurate.  I'm also not arguing that FA will fix the Twins.

 

What I am arguing, and I take issue in the first paragraph with, is that the Twins (under Ryan) spent money wisely and that the Pohalds were the driving force for that.  I think Ryan had a very old school approach about what kind of money "should" be spent.  He long bucked market prices to dumpster dive.  He long avoided high level IFAs in favor of trying to mine the baseball rich fields of Australia.  He refused to even bid on Cuban players.  He refused to get involved in high risk anything - be it trades, contracts, draftees, or whatever.  While you might cite that as entirely the Pohlads, over the years of listening to Terry I came to believe that part of why he was hired was because he shared their vision.  Terry often said the Pohlad's never even gave him a budget.  I believe that because I don't think they needed to.  I think Terry self-imposed as often as they directly imposed.  

 

Because that's who he was.  And the Pohald's new it.  Ryan got to be old school and penny pinching without ownership pressing him to be aggressive and the Pohlad's got their huckleberry to keep costs down and profits up.

[gunnarthor]

 

I do agree with your second paragraph.  I think Smith was partially let go because he was more aggressive and his results didn't reflect that.  That wasn't entirely his fault either, but i do think that's accurate.  I'm also not arguing that FA will fix the Twins.

 

What I am arguing, and I take issue in the first paragraph with, is that the Twins (under Ryan) spent money wisely and that the Pohalds were the driving force for that.  I think Ryan had a very old school approach about what kind of money "should" be spent.  He long bucked market prices to dumpster dive.  He long avoided high level IFAs in favor of trying to mine the baseball rich fields of Australia.  He refused to even bid on Cuban players.  He refused to get involved in high risk anything - be it trades, contracts, draftees, or whatever.  While you might cite that as entirely the Pohlads, over the years of listening to Terry I came to believe that part of why he was hired was because he shared their vision.  Terry often said the Pohlad's never even gave him a budget.  I believe that because I don't think they needed to.  I think Terry self-imposed as often as they directly imposed.  

 

Because that's who he was.  And the Pohald's new it.  Ryan got to be old school and penny pinching without ownership pressing him to be aggressive and the Pohlad's got their huckleberry to keep costs down and profits up.

Could be a bit of chicken egg here.  The Pohlad's weren't going to let a GM spend money and Ryan knew that.  Ryan's natural baseball beliefs were that young cost controlled players were better value than expensive vets. (Your point on international signings is a bit out of context because for most of Ryan's run, the Twins weren't spending the money to get involved in latin america, for example, because the Pohlads weren't going to spend millions on it. Just like they weren't going to spend millions on draft bonuses).  So Ryan worked well within the constraints he was given.  But the Pohlad family hasn't done anything to suggest those constraints are gone.  It's only the first offseason but the new FO cut payroll and has let high salaried players get first crack at playing time and looked for cheap vets to fill out the roster.  A lot of Ryan-like moves.

 

But I will never stop blaming the Pohlads for massive penny pinching that truly affected the Twins ability to win.  Seriously, **** those guys.  And until we actually see differences, I don't think we should give them the benefit of the doubt.

[TheLeviathan]

Please don't confuse me - I do blame the Pohlads.  But I think Ryan was absolutely part of the program.  That's why he was hired, beloved, and retained for so long.

 

That was a partnership in penny pinching.  Now, to what extent it was the Pohlads, I think we're going to find out over the next five years.

[bird]

I agree with a lot of what both of you guys are concluding. One twist I'd give it is that Carl Pohlad was a penny pincher in an entirely different way than Ryan was. And Jim and the boys, I believe will prove to be different than dad was, more open to the examination of all aspects of certain financial risks.

 

Back in the days of Carl's iron-fisted rule, Ryan, in agreement with everyone else, decided to avoid auction scenarios. If Ryan was in favor of this avoidance simply because he thought they couldn't compete, that would be one thing, but I think most of us have long ago concluded that Ryan's distaste was more driven by hating to be part of a bidding war, and this cost the Twins as far as certain opportunities and markets go. But overall, the tactical (not strategic as Ryan was never a strategist) decision to focus on Europe and Australia and lesser Asian markets and avoid having a strong presence and interest in auction-driven Cuba and Japan was probably a good call.

 

I know it's a consensus view that Smith wore out his welcome with the Pohlad boys by pushing to spend money. I don't buy this. There were important people within the scouting department that never had a one-on-one with Smith. There were rumblings about him, his communication style, his abandonment of the consensus culture within the scouting department, and of course he had the disadvantage of succeeding an immensely well-respected and popular boss. And then there were the trades. Old Carl probably liked Ryan because Ryan liked to find players on the cheap, but towards the end, I really believe the boys were seeing two problems, first with Smith in a role he never should have been in, and then with Ryan. After all, they do read TD. 

[gunnarthor]

Well, we will see.  In any event, we've spilled thousands of words on Carl and Ryan and Smith and they aren't here anymore.  I really do hope that ownership doesn't interfere too much into this FO - although Molitor as manager is a bad sign, of course.

[Riverbrian]

Ultimately the buck stops with the Pohlad's. They hire the people who hire the people. 

 

As far as the penny pinching. I have no way of knowing but payroll increased under Smith rather easily and decreased rather easily under Ryan. 

 

That leads to my unfounded suspicion that Terry Ryan was the one who didn't like spending money. 

 

FWIW

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Until I can separate Ryan's beliefs from the Pohlad's strict operating directions, I wouldn't lay it all on them.

Pretty much this. We know the Pohlads won't fling open the checkbook for a Kershaw but there's a big grey area we can't really judge until we get a bearing on the new front office. With Ryan running the show for the vast majority of the time the Pohlads have owned the franchise, we don't really know who was the cheap person in the scenario.

 

Doubly so because Carl no longer owns the team.

[Mr. Brooks]

Why on earth would a GM voluntarily handcuff his resources?

It's just not logical to think that the Pohlads were willing to spend more money (which doesn't guarantee more wins but can't hurt), and the GM said thanks but no thanks.

[Thrylos]

 

Why on earth would a GM voluntarily handcuff his resources?
It's just not logical to think that the Pohlads were willing to spend more money (which doesn't guarantee more wins but can't hurt), and the GM said thanks but no thanks.

 

It happens every day in most businesses.  Lots of VPs and Directors "on the move up" want to show that they can "do more with less".  Very common phenomenon.  Worst kind of bosses to have.

 

The problem with Ryan was that he was a spendthrift, and instead of spending $X on a difference maker, he would spend  $X/4 each to sign each of 3 mediocre players and would spend the last $X/4 dumpster diving.  So he would spent.   Check out how much $ he gave Correia, Pelfrey (twice), Hughes (twice), Nolasco, and E. Santana. 

 

In 2014, He was paying Hughes, Pelfrey, Correia, and Burton $29M.  That is not not spending, that is not spending wise...

[Mr. Brooks]

It happens every day in most businesses. Lots of VPs and Directors "on the move up" want to show that they can "do more with less". Very common phenomenon. Worst kind of bosses to have.

 

The problem with Ryan was that he was a spendthrift, and instead of spending $X on a difference maker, he would spend $X/4 each to sign each of 3 mediocre players and would spend the last $X/4 dumpster diving. So he would spent. Check out how much $ he gave Correia, Pelfrey (twice), Hughes (twice), Nolasco, and E. Santana.

 

In 2014, He was paying Hughes, Pelfrey, Correia, and Burton $29M. That is not not spending, that is not spending wise...

Sports is not the same as every other business.

Ryan was already at the top of his profession. What position would he be on the move up to?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...

The problem with Ryan was that he was a spendthrift, and instead of spending $X on a difference maker, he would spend  $X/4 each to sign each of 3 mediocre players and would spend the last $X/4 dumpster diving.  So he would spent.   Check out how much $ he gave Correia, Pelfrey (twice), Hughes (twice), Nolasco, and E. Santana. 

 

In 2014, He was paying Hughes, Pelfrey, Correia, and Burton $29M.  That is not not spending, that is not spending wise...

Spendthrift might be a little strong, but mostly I agree with this.

Ryan was a quantity over quality guy, believing that if you have 4 guys 1 of them may have a breakout year. He was also acutely aware of their 'floor'. He wanted to make sure he didn't spend money that showed no return. This would also keep you from hiring one player who was really talented and expensive, as then an injury to that 1 player would be a huge loss.

That's how we got signings like Nolasco over Kashmir.

 

I actually think that if we are one player away from being a serious contender that Jim Pohlad will cough up what it takes to get that missing link. What owner doesn't want to win a World Series? Here's hoping.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Why on earth would a GM voluntarily handcuff his resources?
It's just not logical to think that the Pohlads were willing to spend more money (which doesn't guarantee more wins but can't hurt), and the GM said thanks but no thanks.

 

Because it bought him the unconditional love of his employers and basically gave him a dream job for two decades?

 

I struggle how anyone who has been a Twins fan the last 20 years could be confused about who Terry Ryan was as a baseball guy.  He was smart, measured, approachable, genuine, and many other things.  But he was also clearly old school about his approach and especially about money.  

[Mr. Brooks]

Because it bought him the unconditional love of his employers and basically gave him a dream job for two decades?

 

I struggle how anyone who has been a Twins fan the last 20 years could be confused about who Terry Ryan was as a baseball guy. He was smart, measured, approachable, genuine, and many other things. But he was also clearly old school about his approach and especially about money.

The most likely reason for his monetary approach is that he was working under a budget.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The most likely reason for his monetary approach is that he was working under a budget.

 

Yes, that doesn't mean he couldn't go even further under that budget to impress his employers.  Or live by his own belief about what should or shouldn't be spent.

 

How many times did we hear Ryan over those 20 years talk about "spending the Pohlad's money" or something to that effect?  Or the classic "They've never told me no to spending more money" line? 

 

Maybe "handcuff" isn't the right word, but I don't believe Ryan was ever pushing the limits.  I think he stayed far, far clear of it in fact.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yes, that doesn't mean he couldn't go even further under that budget to impress his employers.  Or live by his own belief about what should or shouldn't be spent.

 

How many times did we hear Ryan over those 20 years talk about "spending the Pohlad's money" or something to that effect?  Or the classic "They've never told me no to spending more money" line? 

 

Maybe "handcuff" isn't the right word, but I don't believe Ryan was ever pushing the limits.  I think he stayed far, far clear of it in fact.

Yeah, which is why I used the term "grey area".

 

Think of it this way: was it Ryan or the Pohlads that decided to spend $50m on Nolasco but not $90m on Sanchez?

 

And there's a world of difference between those two moves. A team doesn't have to break the bank wide open and pursue a Kershaw-type pitcher to spend on the free agent market. The Twins barely dabbled in the lower-middle of the market. They never touched the upper-middle of the market.

 

Given their market constraints, it's unlikely the Twins will sign a $150m free agent any time soon but there shouldn't be anything stopping them from going after an $80m free agent. Ryan's largest guaranteed contract was $52m, I believe.

[markos]

 

I guess I'm not following your logic here. If you're talking about the Twins not trading Mauer, Morneau, Baker, Koskie et al, you're talking about not trading key parts of winning baseball teams. I'm not sure there was ever a good period to trade Morneau, for example, although I do remember people advocating trading him in early 06 for Ty Wigginton. (Losing Cuddy and Koskie and Hunter and Everyday Eddie and Hawkins actually gave the Twins multiple draft picks under the CBA at the time). Koskie was the starting third baseman for three straight playoff teams, why would we trade him? During the early 2000s, the rip on the Twins was that they kept trading away players or letting them leave by FA to get draft picks. Smith did a fair job locking up a young nucleus of players through their first year of free agency but that was about it, other than Mauer and Morneau.  

 

If you think the Twins should have traded those guys while they were still cost controlled because they weren't going to win a world series, wouldn't you be advocating trading Sano now?  I agree that the 2011 crash was really hampered by the injuries that key players got but Mauer was already under contract.  Cuddy turned into Berrios. Liriano and Young just failed to develop, which was a real problem but I'm not sure it was realistic to expect either to have been traded right after the 2010 season (although in hindsight that would have been the time).  So I'm not sure what moves would have been realistic at the time.  Sure, Valencia had a nice rookie season but no one thought he was anything better than a serviceable third baseman, for instance. Trading him after the 2010 season wasn't going to bring much back.

Maybe I'm mis-understanding PseudoSABR's argument, but the way I read it matched my own thoughts, which is that post-2010 the Twins were extremely unlucky when it came to opportunities to trade veterans for prospects. Basically the only player the Twins were able to trade for full value was Ben Revere. Morneau had chronic injury issues and was a shell of his former self. Baker was out with TJ surgery. Liriano was ineffective. Even Span had lingering injury questions before he was traded. Cuddyer wasn't traded (and yes, the compensation pick turned into Berrios, though I think in general teams would prefer to be able to trade for a prospect that has shown success in the minors rather than a mid-30s draft pick, but obviously a gray area there). If you looked at those 5 players (Span, Liriano, Baker, Morneau and Cuddyer) in 2010 and asked yourself how much trade value the Twins should expect if they were forced to rebuild, I think the answer would be a lot more than just a single top-100 prospect, a #32 pick and a utility infielder. Add in Dozier's current situation (where basically every contender was set at 2B), and it just adds insult to injury. Now I'm not arguing that the Twins did anything wrong; mostly I think they were just unlucky. But regardless, I share PseudoSABR's opinion that it contributed to the lackluster rebuild.

[Mike Sixel]

Sucks that for 6 years now they've been unlucky. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact they drafted and developed poorly and have no veterans to trade....

[Willihammer]

 

Ultimately the buck stops with the Pohlad's. They hire the people who hire the people. 

 

As far as the penny pinching. I have no way of knowing but payroll increased under Smith rather easily and decreased rather easily under Ryan. 

 

That leads to my unfounded suspicion that Terry Ryan was the one who didn't like spending money. 

 

FWIW

But Smith was fired  after a single losing season. Ryan was given 5 of them.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Given their market constraints, it's unlikely the Twins will sign a $150m free agent any time soon but there shouldn't be anything stopping them from going after an $80m free agent. Ryan's largest guaranteed contract was $52m, I believe.

 

Right.  Yes, there was a budget of some kind.  But the budget didn't say "Sign Tony Bautista and Rondell White".  Terry Ryan made that decision.  And he made that decision based on his own beliefs about contracts.

 

To your example - we didn't avoid Sanchez because we couldn't sign him.  We avoided Sanchez (and many other examples over the years) because that was "too much" for one player.  

 

That's Ryan, not the Pohlads.  I also believe our total lack of splashy mid-season trades or offseason acquisitions to put us over the top also had mostly to do with Ryan, not the Pohlads.  

 

I also struggle to hear people say "Yes, Ryan was a penny pincher" but then allege, somehow, that his penny pinching ways didn't impact his total lack of IFA success.  That doesn't jive.

 

But these next 5 years might prove me wrong.  I just wouldn't bet on it.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Sucks that for 6 years now they've been unlucky. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact they drafted and developed poorly and have no veterans to trade....

Wait, I thought 2015 was nothing but luck.

 

Regardless, I think marcos is a bit right. The 2011 injury train, plus Young and Liriano stalling out, had pretty big impact on this team. As you and others have pointed out, the Twins didn't have a strong farm system (for a variety of reasons) to make up for much. Injuries to Mauer, Morneau and Nathan - who combined for about a third of the payroll didn't make things easier.

 

But I'm not sure the Twins should be blamed for not trading Liriano after the 2010 season, for instance, even though he probably would have gotten a pretty big return.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

But these next 5 years might prove me wrong.  I just wouldn't bet on it.

You have much more faith than I. The only significant payroll push the Pohlads have allowed was basically Mauer's huge contract with the tax funded Target Field. Probably not a coincidence. Payroll might get to 120 but there's no way the Pohlad's are going to give Sano and Buxton Mauer-like money (if they earn it).