Atlantis Casino O/U

[caninatl04]

As previously promised, I found the first casino offering season O/U. Twins: 70.5 wins

3rd in the AL Central.

 

Thoughts

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think, and appears Antlantis too, that it will be a weak division below the Indians.

 

PECOTA had the Twins at 80 wins. I think Atlantis has a more realistic number. I personally predicted in between the two so I'll take the over on Atlantis.

[Blake]

I'm sticking with my 71 wins prediction.

[killertwinfan]

I am taking the under.

[Mike Sixel]

Nice line. It makes you think. I am going over.

[GP830]

Over.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd take the over on that without thinking about it too hard. I think they clear 71 wins unless everything goes wrong (again).

 

Hell, their adjusted BaseRuns last season was 71 wins and the Twins literally had two good full season players on the roster. This season, it's easy to see at least two or three of Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler, et al step up and provide 3-4 win seasons.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Nice line. It makes you think. I am going over.

Dunno. Something around 72.5 would make me think.

 

70.5 seems like a pretty easy decision to me.

[iTwins]

I feel like 70.5 is a touch too low to make this a tough call. I'd easily take the over. Move that line up to between 73 and 74.5, and it would cause me to pause. I can see a 75-80 win season, but wouldn't be stunned if the ended up right around 73 or 74 wins. 

 

Of course, these places make their fortunes off of people who share my overconfidence in their own perception...

[rghrbek]

Under.  Until I know what the pitching plan is for both starters and bullpen, I cannot go higher than 70 wins.  The current construction of our staff makes me say under.

[Vanimal46]

70.5 is a good number... Either you think they're losing 90+ games again, or see a ton of improvement from last year and lose 80+. There's still too much uncertainty with the pitching IMO that I'd still go under. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

over

[Doomtints]

I think 70/71 is right around where they will land.  I would not take this bet.

[caninatl04]

And they are 120:1 to win the World Series. Brewers are worst at 350:1. Cubs are best at 7:2.

 

Cleveland 11:1

Detroit 30:1

KC 50:1

Twins 120:1

White Sox 350:1

 

Just FYI

[Twinfan603]

I know the AL Central is weak, and will probably be the weakest division in baseball, but these lines seem too negative for mid-February. I say it's easy to take the over here. 72.5, like Brock said, seems much better. I'd probably bump the White Sox and Royals' lines up a win or two as well.

[Mr. Brooks]

Number is right on. I'd pass. I predicted 71 in another thread, which is technically over, but too close to put money on.

[USAFChief]

Over.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I predicted 70 - 75 wins. Not because they did much to improve the team, but because they almost cannot be as bad as they were last year and some of the players should improve.

 

If it were 72, 72.5 or 73 wins I'd pass.

 

At 70.5 I take the over.

[theBOMisthebomb]

This is why I don't bet - my heart says over and the brain says just under. Save the cash.

[caninatl04]

And today, one of the largest on-line sports book (literally sportsbook.ag) came out with their O/U's

 

Cleveland 93

Detroit      84

KC            76

Twins        74.5 (if you've been following-- four more games than the Atlantis book)

White Sox 70

 

Again, thoughts on a 15 game improvement?

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Again, thoughts on a 15 game improvement?

Given how the Twins were -12 wins under their sequencing last season, a 15 game improvement isn't completely out of line when you consider how the division should be weaker overall.

 

74.5 is interesting. That sounds about right to me, though maybe slightly on the high side.

[DaveW]

I managed to find one book that had the Twins at 69.5 put $1000 on the over also found one that had the Twins at 75.5 put $1000 on the under.

 

If the Twins win between 70 and 75 games it will be an easy $2000 win (off a potential $100 loss) 20:1 effective odds that the Twins end up between 70 and 75 wins seemed pretty good to me.

[Mike Sixel]

I managed to find one book that had the Twins at 69.5 put $1000 on the over also found one that had the Twins at 75.5 put $1000 on the under.

 

If the Twins win between 70 and 75 games it will be an easy $2000 win (off a potential $100 loss) 20:1 effective odds that the Twins end up between 70 and 75 wins seemed pretty good to me.

Interesting hedge bet. I like your odds on that

[Linus]

The 70 is an easy over. The 74.5 is more compelling but I would take the over.

[Riverbrian]

 

I managed to find one book that had the Twins at 69.5 put $1000 on the over also found one that had the Twins at 75.5 put $1000 on the under.

If the Twins win between 70 and 75 games it will be an easy $2000 win (off a potential $100 loss) 20:1 effective odds that the Twins end up between 70 and 75 wins seemed pretty good to me.

 

You've just fated the Twins to either win 76 or 69. 

 

The baseball gods find that kind of stuff funny. 

[Riverbrian]

I never take the under on my team.

 

They could set the line at 105 wins and I'd still take the over. 

 

Yeah... I lose money that way but I'm sleeping OK

 

GO TWINS!!!

 

 

[DaveW]

 

You've just fated the Twins to either win 76 or 69. 

 

The baseball gods find that kind of stuff funny. 

I'd much prefer the 76 in that scenario, at least it means the Twins improved by a lot of wins.