Predictions for 2017

[DocBauer]

OK gang...here we go. The world is about to become a bit brighter again. And I'm not referring to sunny days and 50 degree temperatures here in the Midwest. (Nebraska in my case). We still have half of April to go through, and all of March, which we all know to a fickle beast and weather tempest. I'm talking, of course, about baseball. Spring training is about a new season, a new hope...not just for our favorite teams to love, follow and debate...but because baseball is a direct reflection of life and the world we live in and make. New hope Springs eternal with a new season, (not talking Star Wars here, lol), but each season is filled to the brim with possibilities! The "hot stove" portion of baseball is like a hand warmer in winter vs shirt sleeves and shorts and hot summer sun while being surrounded by Green and bloom. Spring training is all about hope and possibility. And even if hopes are easily dashed when the season starts, (always...hopefully NOT), admit it...the world is a better place to live with baseball all around us.

 

"Struck out", "home run" and the proverbial "there's always tomorrow" are not just hyperbole, they are ingrained references in our culture that are born from the world of baseball, understood and articulated even by those with no to little love or knowledge of the game itself. (I will resist temptation to discuss such matters as reaching 1B, 2B, etc, lol) Baseball is a part of life as we know it and love or endure it. Your team stinks? What about the hot rookie that offers so much promise and makes you tune in? Or the milb portion of your team that offers promise? You turn on or tune in a Twins game and they lose or get blown out...in the midst of a poor or quality season regardless..."there is always tomorrow". And that next day comes, and the Twins...in this forum, naturally, play well or dominate and win, and suddenly the sun shines a bit brighter, green and all colors are a bit more vibrant, and there is a better feeling for that day in the world.

 

And it all starts with something as simple as "pitchers and catchers reporting".

 

Absolutely none of us knows what the 2017 season will bring for our beloved Twins, or their milb affiliates, (or life itself, for that matter). But as fans and followers of baseball, we all understand the impact of those 4 precious words, what they mean and imply, and how they impact on us as human beings and fans. Even on a bad day, there can be sunshine, a dog, a flat beer, and hope. As a man/human being, and as a Twins fan, I will confess to you that I look forward to this new season like I have never anticipated one before. Not because I expect a worst to first scenario to repeat for a 3rd time. But simply...the world is more RIGHT with real baseball being played, and all the potential implications that come with it.

 

If you didn't already know from reading various posts of mine over time, or words written here, at my heart, even with the drudgery of everyday life, I am an optomist at heart. (Not always a good or easy thing to be sure). And I am filled to the brim with optomism for the entire Twins organization that I love, have loved, and followed for 45+ years or so now. Not because I expect something sublime to happen...(bless you Cubs fans)...and not simply because baseball is about to be back...(again, the whole world a better place)...but because I'm actually excited for the new direction the entire Twins organization is headed.

 

I know the new FO will not pull a rabbit out of the hat for their first presentation, but I am excited that they will lay down the hard, rubber to the road, groundwork to make changes. And patience for the past be damned, this a NEW set of patience put in place. But there is just so much to be excited for. Admittedly, with some trepidation involved. And if some of you want to be pessemists,I do get it. But really, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Polanco, Berrios and others, including a few older players, isn't there something here to be excited for?

 

This isn't necessarily or exclusively a positive thread, despite my exuberance for a new season. The truth is, however, that it IS a new season. The Twins don't have to be 20 some games better than last season. ALL teams, including the Cubs, begin 0-0. The Twins just have to grow and be better, from the top on down. But I ramble, as I am wont to do at times. You can be pessemist or optomist, but what are KEY predictions you have for 2017?

 

As for me:

 

1} By May, if not before, Buxton will be showing enough overall potential and dynamic ability he will be the leadoff hitter. It may take a year or so for the OB% to be where we would like it, but the rest of his game will excite and demand he hit in the top spot.

 

2} Dozier will absolutely regress to some degree. He's not going to hit 40 bombs again. But he is a valuable and polished and smart player who made adjustments in 2016. There could be a lot of people regretting not trading for him, a lot of people demanding he be traded for value, but just as many praising his value and wondering if he should be extended.

 

3} Berrios is going to struggle somewhat. He might even spend some time in Rochester. But by the second half of the season he will begin to show some very strong things and start to show his real potential.

 

4} There will be ups and downs, but by seasons end, we will all be looking at the Twins OF with tremendous hope and excitement.

 

 

5} Despite a lot of promise shown team-wide, Molitor will be lucky to survive the full season. He's just too old school and resistant to different ways of using his roster and a change is made.

 

6} The AAA and AA teams will show winning seasons, but the important part is there will be a couple really good performances from some quality prospects amidst the fodder.

 

7} We will look at Ft Myers and bellow and sah: "wow! Look at...."

 

Just a few thoughts. Really want to hear your predictions.

[Oldgoat_MN]

It would be nice to see Buxton take over and own the leadoff spot, but isn't OBP pretty much more important there than anywhere else in the lineup?

 

Actually, all 3 of our OF look to provide good defense and all are woefully weak in OBP. Terrible, in fact.

All 3 of them need to make great strides there or we need to find other options. Of 268 players with >=300 PA in 2016 Kepler, Rosario and Buxton ranked 191, 238 and 253 in OBP, respectively. Even Buxton's defense can't keep numbers like that on the field.

 

They are all young and still learning MLB. This will be a very important stat to watch.

Go Twins!

[Pius Jefferson]

Twins lose between 95 and 101 games. 

[killertwinfan]

If the first 4 things happen, I would consider that progress and be satisfied.  I would like to add to my list that Sano improves on defense and Polanco handles short reasonable well.  IF, all of that happens and we still don't win 70 games, I will still be happy.  

[EddieMatthews]

I hope (predict) improvements over 2016 in offense, defense and pitching.  The lineup will be Buxton cf, Mauer 1b, Sano 3b, Dozier 2b, Vargas dh, Kepler rf, Polanco ss, Rosario lf, Castro c.  Bench players will be a mix and rotation between MLB and AAA.

 

Improvements in defense will be in the outfield and catcher.  Expect weakness on the left side of the infield with Sano and Polanco struggling at times.    

 

Pitching will improve with improved defense, catching, and return of injured players.  Hughes, Perkins, Chargois, Berrios, all have big upsides.  I don't know how pitching could get worse.  

 

Net gain will be 10 more wins than last year, with the youngsters showing improvement toward 2018.

[Dantes929]

I think Dozier is just a flat out better hitter than he was a year ago.  If he continues to focus on plate coverage rather than just trying to pull the ball I really don't know what his ceiling is.    I don't expect him to keep the pace he had in the 2nd half of 2016 but for a full season I would not be surprised if there was no regression.  Key to success this season is May, Berrios and Gibson in the rotation having good years.   Last year I said it was Perkins, Jepsen and May in the pen which I guess was true in a bad way.   I am hoping the OBP as a team will improve.   Unlikely to lose a 100 or win a 100 so my prediction is below that on each.

[gunnarthor]

1) Sano makes the all-star game.

2) Gibson gets his first 200 ip season

3) May makes more than 15 starts

[Dr. Evil]

I predict I will remain more positive and patient this season since we have new leadership, finally.

[ThejacKmp]

1) Perhaps bold but Twins finish second in the AL Central. The Indians are good but the White Sox are rebuilding and the Royals and Tiggers are not that strong. Not crazy to see a .500 Twins team that plays well in the division making it to second place.

 

2) Molitor survives to 2018. He embraces platooning and shows that being old doesn't make you old school. The Twins do well enough he makes it another year, though he's still on the hot seat (with Jake Mauer waiting in the on-deck circle?)

 

3) Danny Santana makes opening day but is DFA a few weeks into the season and TD celebrates (while a few speak wistfully of his role as a brightly burning star in a dismal 2014).

 

4.) Though people are down on Rosario, he plays well enough to be the everyday LF. Kepler, on the other hand, has some growing pains and makes a month-long trip down to Rochester to work on his hitting. We freak out but then remember he's young and his parents are ballerinas.

 

5.) Buxton is the Twins All-Star representative and leads the league in triples.

 

6.) Gibson rebounds and has a solid season, the Twins move him (not Santana) at the deadline to make room for some of they young starters coming up.

 

7.) Dozier ends up on the Dodgers at the deadline as Logan Forsythe's versatility covers for an injury at 3B/OF and 2B is open again.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

7.) Dozier ends up on the Dodgers at the deadline as Logan Forsythe's versatility covers for an injury at 3B/OF and 2B is open again.

 

FWIW they have re-signed Chase Utley... 

[Vanimal46]

Like gunnarthor predicted, I also think Sano makes the all-star team, and ascends toward league wide stardom. 

 

Buxton still struggles some, but shows enough good things that we won't complain much about his slumps. BA in the .240-.250 range, .750 OPS, gets gold glove consideration but doesn't win it. 

 

Berrios is yo-yoed between AAA and MLB for performance issues until July, then starts hitting his stride in August/September.

 

Molitor checks out and is replaced by the bench coach/consultant Falvey and Levine hired this off-season on an interim basis. 

 

Adrianza starts more games at SS than Polanco this season. 

 

Dozier and Erv Santana are traded at the July deadline. 

 

[Dantes929]

Please no 9 game losing streaks, especially to start the season.

 

[Physics Guy]

Trevor May starts 30 games and ends up with an ERA around 4. 

 

Miguel Sano hits 40 HR and plays passable defense.

 

Polanco starts less than half the games at SS. 

 

Buxton has an OPS over .800 during the second half. 

 

Berrios struggles the first half of the season but has a sub-4.00 ERA in the second half. 

 

Rosario proves he is a 4th OF, Grossman turns back into a pumpkin and Granite becomes LF after the AS break. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Twins win 100 games and power their way to a WS victory.

The Vikings go 14-2 and become the first team to win a superbowl in their home stadium.

Diehardtwinsfan wins the powerball and is never seen again...

[Vanimal46]

 

Twins win 100 games and power their way to a WS victory.

The Vikings go 14-2 and become the first team to win a superbowl in their home stadium.

Diehardtwinsfan wins the powerball and is never seen again...

 

.... And then your dogs wake you up 30 minutes before your alarm is supposed to go off. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

.... And then your dogs wake you up 30 minutes before your alarm is supposed to go off. 

 

 

Unfortunately, I tend to wake me up all by myself before my alarm clock goes off... but if I don't, the new puppy will most definitely do so.

[Bark's Lounge]

Rosario hits 22HRs, 14 Triples, 27 Doubles, 21 SBs and has an OBP of .320 and wins a gold glove.

 

YEAH!!!

[Bark's Lounge]

Other than pimping Rosario... I think:

• Mauer has a similar year to last with less PA's

• Dozier hits 27-32HRs, but hits .290 with a .390OBP

• Polanco hits pretty well, but really has his struggles at SS, but gets close to 500PAs

• Sano Hits 37HRs with an OPS a smudge over .800, because his average is low, and plays below   average at the hot corner, but it is stomach able.

 

• Kepler has a mirror image season of last year  with more PAs, which in turn drives his numbers up some

 

• Buxton has 16HRs, 90Rs, and 30SBs, and 55BBs

 

• Rosario - Read Above, and above past that

 

• Vargas & Park have similar seasons - 12HRs, sub .250BA

 

• SP's - Santana pitches 198 Innings, with a 3.60ERA and a 7.2Ks/9, Berrios and May have around a 4.15 ERA, but progress is made and hope is abound with those guys.

 

• RP's - Chargois end up saving 24 games with a 9K/9 and Hughes ends up in the bullpen and puts up much better number than Chargois, and members of this site are good with that because the 2017 team uses their relief pitchers correctly in high leverage situations.

 

• The Twins finish a little bit below or above .500.

 

All these predictions are based on a no trade scenario.

[spinowner]

It's not if Buxton will take over the lead-off spot it's when. He'll have a consistent first half and will be at the top of the order by the middle of June. And he'll have five inside-the-park home runs this season.

[Walter's Whites]

My Predictions:

 

The Twins look intriguing in spring training, and then stumble out of the gate.

 

Just kidding. I think they will start off respectable this year, not great, but definitely not as bad as last season (fingers crossed). At least when I go to the home opener this year they won't be 0-6.

 

Mauer plays in only about 110 games. Not due to injury, but due to the Twins platooning and resting him more.

 

Ryan Pressly is the primary closer by June.

 

Assuming Polanco and Sano are shortstop and third basemen, me having panic attacks every time a ball is hit to the left side of the field.

 

Byron Buxton is the Twins best all around player by September.

 

Rosario has a bounce back year. Won't get on base much, but I think he will contribute with extra base hits, steals and plus defense.

 

Other than Santana being decent, I can't make any predictions with the rotation. Way to many unknowns. I hope to the baseball gods Berrios can be effective, but he just looked so overwhelmed last year.

 

Some other random predictions:

 

Trout wins MVP (not going out on much of a limb).

 

Indians win the central, with the Twins winning about 76-80 games.

 

The Dodgers and Red Sox in the world series, with the Red Sox winning it.

 

Seager wins NL MVP.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Unfortunately, I tend to wake me up all by myself before my alarm clock goes off... but if I don't, the new puppy will most definitely do so.

Yeah, I've reached that age too. Now to remember to schedule that colonoscopy...

 

[DJSim22]

Dozier out homers Sano 32-31.  Dozier is not traded at the dealine.  May starts in the rotation, but is on the DL in early May with a back injury.  He struggles all year. Talk of the bullpen causing the issue is over.  Mauer hits .300 until September and ends up at .290. He holds up and is not on the DL partly due to his decreased innings.  The importance of pitch framing is decreased after Castro's subpar defense overall.  Santiago becomes the Twins second most reliable starter after Santana.  Gibson struggles and trades places with Haley in August as the long reliever.  Buxton hits .250 and shows an ability to see more pitches.  He is moved into the #1 spot in the order mid May.  Phil Huges comes back in September to throw some innings from the bullpen.  His velosity is still down and he struggles. Kintzler is okay as a closer, but Chargois in the second half.

 

The Twins stay at .500 until June and slowly fade during the summer.  They have their worst month in September as they are out of contention and take looks at several players.  They end the season 69-93, but improvement was made. 

[twinssporto]

Great post DocBauer!

 

Here's what I think and actually believe.  Right now we have a core group of guys that kind of remind me of the 85-86 Twins club.  This "core" could turn into something special...

 

Buxton = Puckett

Sano = Gaetti

Polanco = Gagne

Dozier = Knoblauch

Kepler = Brunansky

Berrios = Viola

Santana = Blyleven

 

Vargas could add some more gas...

Rosario has got what it takes too.  Awesome athlete.

 

I'm an optimist at heart too.  Don't count this crew out.  A very young and talented team is now on the big stage.  I didn't even mention Mauer...could hit .320 or better to boot.

 

Bring on Spring!  Can't wait.

 

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

Oh yeah. Mauer. National media talks about a Mauer resurgence year as he hits around .300 for most of the season before dropping down to .290 in September when the Twins feed playing time to younger guys and he's thinking about his golf game. This is in fact due to him being platooned more aggressively and some of his ill luck with BABIP regressing to the mean. Twins fans still don't appreciate how much he's meant to the organization and how much they will miss him when he's gone.

[Ryan Atkins]

Sano wins the All-Star HR Derby

 

The Twins start the season 4-8 and Dick Bremer tells us how great that is and informs us that Twins are only 3 games back in the loss column.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Bremer, but I will put the over/under at 300 times this year that he uses the phrase "The hope is that..."

[Siehbiscuit]

Buxton is NOT moved to the lead off spot, but put in the two hole ahead of Mauer and Sano. He gets protection before and after and our top four hitters rake.

 

Dozier .270/.385/.585 - 34 HRs

Buxton .270/.350/.520 - 22HRs (61 total xbh's) and wins Gold Glove

Mauer .305/.385/.415 - 10HRs - plays 115 games in platoon with Vargas .260/.340/.470 14HRs

Sano ..245/.370/.575 - 43 HR -

 

Rosario (.275/.315/.460 - 38xbh's) bats in the 5 hole after Kepler struggles early, but finishes with a solid line (.255/.325/.445 - 34 xbh's) Grossman rakes as everyday DH (.270/.355/.455). Polanco is bad defensively but the bat is good (.300/.340/.410). Castro helps pitching staff and hits 12 HRs.

 

Santana regresses slightly, but is still dealt at the deadline for two Top100 prospects. Gibson's sinker consistently sinks this year and he wins 16 games with a 3.40 ERA. Berrios averages 9.5 K/9 in 165 innings, but still has control problems. Santiago sucks and is traded for a bag of balls.

 

Minors: Kohl Stewart starts looking like a top draft pick after the Twins new pitching philosophy better fits his skill set. He continues to induce tons of ground ally's, but also is encouraged to use his "stuff." He increases his K/9 to 8.5. Reaches Top 25 prospect status. Gonsalves gets called up and starts out of the bullpen and throws 25 innings, mostly in low to medium leverage situations. He does well.

 

Nick Gordon develops some man muscle and starts hitting for extra bases. Hits .310/.360/.460 with 45 xbh's.

 

I've been told I'm an optimist.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

My Predictions:

 

The Dodgers and Red Sox in the world series, with the Red Sox winning it.

 

Seager wins NL MVP.

When I moved to Milwaukee, the Crew reached the playoffs for the first time in...more years than I had been alive. 

 

When I  moved to San Francisco, the Giants won the World Series. 

 

Now, I am moving to Los Angeles. 

 

The Dodgers will win the World Series. 

[Riverbrian]

Starting Pitching: In total it will be much better mainly because it can't get any worse and has to go up.

 

Pitchers will get the benefit of more favorable counts because of the presence of Castro however only the starters with significant out pitches will take advantage of that.

 

The starting rotation on opening day will be: Santana, Santiago, Gibson, Hughes and May

 

Berrios and Duffey will start in the minors 

 

My gut feeling is that Hughes will be ok for a short period of time and fade until his shoulder shuts him down. My gut just doesn't like shoulder problems I guess. I think all 5 opening day starters will spend some time on the D.L. and we will need 9 starters to get through the season.

 

We will be happy with the performances of Berrios, Duffey, May and Gonsalves. So Happy with Berrios, Duffey and May that Santana is moved at the deadline. We will be luke warm with Santiago and Gibson with their matching 4.20 ERA's and disappointed with Hughes and Mejia. Santana will get a nice apartment in Denver with a nice view of the Rockies in the distance. 

 

The Bullpen will be a mess... Whoever starts as our closer on opening day will not be the guy who is the closer in September. During June and July... Molitor will be using the ole' closer by committee. My gut not liking shoulder problems prevents me from any optimism on Perkins filling a major role successfully. The young arms will start arriving by drips and drabs this year and placed in low leverage situations. All in All... When 2017 is reviewed by Falvey and Levine... they will look at each other and say... "We should have been more aggressive improving the pen. 

 

Sano and Dozier will both represent the Twins at the All-Star Game. 

 

Sano will make some plays that he shouldn't at 3B but he will bungle more than his share of routine plays but he will be pushing 30 home runs by the all-star break and his OBP will be pretty decent. They will spend significant time discussing Sano on the MLB Network.I will get ridiculous trade offers for him in my keeper fantasy league where I hold his rights. 

 

Dozier will continue to hit the ball out of the park and will be traded at the deadline to a contending team with a hole at 2B due to an injury. Dozier will enjoy his apartment on a hill overlooking the city of Pittsburgh. 

 

Polanco will start at SS and he will be do a passable job fielding the position but it won't stop TwinsDaily posters from saying that he is a disaster out there. Regardless of how passable at SS he is defensively... it will be his bat that cuts his playing time. Players just don't get better every year like it's a locked in progression. I think the sophomore struggles at the plate will happen because everyone just seems to think he's just gonna hit and the baseball gods love to laugh at things like that. Polanco will eventually get the 2B job after Dozier is traded and his hitting will start coming around at the end of the year. 

 

Adrianza: Will get the first crack at taking over the starting SS job but he won't hit enough.

 

Escobar: Will be the guy who spends the most time holding down SS and this is etched in stone because it is how Escobar does it. Whenever Escobar has been declared a backup... he hits pretty well and eventually becomes a starter... and whenever Escobar has been declared the starter... he struggles at the plate and loses the starting job. He will be declared the backup so he's gonna have a nice year. Before Escobar takes over the SS position... he will spend significant time playing LF after Rosario is sent down early. 

 

Rosario will start in LF and continue swinging at everything and will be sent down after a month to work on things... When he finally gets called back up... It will be a Rosario that we can all take pride in.

 

Kepler: Gonna just do enough to get playing time and stay up but he's not going to knock us out. He will stay healthy and teach Miquel Sano how to plie when fielding grounders. 

 

Buxton: He will not hit enough to reach his full anticipated potential but he will hit well enough that we can finally smell that potential. He will have two 15 day DL stints. 

 

Stubbs will get the call when Rosario gets sent down and he will perform like his last name is Schafer. He will play sparingly but stay with the club for a decent amount of time as the Twins try to avoid calling up Palka or Granite. 

 

Grossman will spend more time at DH then Vargas will and he will have another good year at the plate and people will stop calling him a fluke. 

 

Vargas will start as the DH on opening day but Molitor was already thinking that he liked Grossman better and eventually Grossman will get more and more playing time while Vargas is labeled as inconsistent by Molitor... Just when you think Vargas is about to be sent down... Mauer goes on the DL and Vargas will OPS over 1,000 during that month and once again lose his job when Mauer returns. 

 

Mauer will play whenever he is healthy. Molitor will be intending to give him more rest but when he makes out the lineup card... he won't be able to help himself because Mauer will keep saying that he feels great. Mauer will play a nice 1B and continue producing a high on base percentage and he will continue hitting the ball on the ground to the right side and in the the air to left... his time on the DL will be his rest and Molitor will agree its sufficient.  

 

Park will be healthy down in AAA and he will hit a ball in Rochester that lands in Lake Ontario. He will earn a call up when Mauer is hurt but not be able to compete with major league pitching. 

 

It will be Castro and someone else making up our catching tandem. Every once in awhile... they will get a key hit to win us a game and every once in awhile... they won't. 

 

Final Season Record: 76-86... The Twins have a good August and September with Berrios, Duffey, May, Gonsalves, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Vargas, Polanco and Grossman leading the way. Chargois will be closing games like the mad Hungarian at the end of the year. 

 

Bury this in a time capsule... Let's dig it up in October.