Article: Recency Bias

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because there's a lot more to running a baseball team than trades and free agents in one offseason?

 

Analytics, scouting, coaching, development, medical, assembling a roster, promotions/demotions... The list is a mile long.

 

Aren't all those working, if they are 1 FA SP from being in the playoffs? I think it's a legit question, if people think the system is a playoff caliber system, why fire the GM?

[Jerr]

 

Sure, even I admit I'm a little disappointed.

 

But I try not to let that cloud my judgment of the front office and conflate "I'm disappointed" with "they failed".

Definition of conflate
conflated; conflating
transitive verb
1
a :  to bring together :  fuse
b :  confuse
2
:  to combine (as two readings of a text) into a composite whole <The editor conflated the two texts.> < … a city of conflated races and cultures … — Earl Shorris>

 

 

Learned a new word (to me)  

[KirbyDome89]

There is a difference between falling to complete an important task and being an overall failure. I see the move to start the season with Dozier rather than acquire at least one future arm as a failure. That doesn't mean I think the new FO is in it's entirety a disaster.

[old nurse]

 

so they can't sign good FAs ever, or just when they are bad? 

As revenue goes down, limitations on what a team can do with their roster goes up. . Nowhere did I say ever.  According to ESPN, they signed the 13 best free agent this winter.  In 2014 they signed the 11th best, 2013  number 7. You may not like the players,  but they were what was available.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As revenue goes down, limitations on what a team can do with their roster goes up. . Nowhere did I say ever.  According to ESPN, they signed the 13 best free agent this winter.  In 2014 they signed the 11th best, 2013  number 7. You may not like the players,  but they were what was available.

 

I was just trying to understand....

 

I like both the ESan and Castro signing (assuming those are two of what you meant). I am trying to guess the other unsuccessfully right now.

[Huskerboy2]

At what point if things start slow do we start talking about the manger. I know that Molitor is the owners mandate at  manger. At what point do you pull the plug. Am haunted by memories of hometown favorite Alan Trammel as manger of the Tigers in the  2003  when his first team lost 117 games (Tiger fans booed as that team swept the twins in the last three games to avoid the worst losing season in baseball). He hung around for two more years with 90 and 91 losses.  Aside from the Hunter-led  bounce in 2015  Molitor's leadership has not generated a whole lot of success. How long does a love affair with a local boy need to last? 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Aren't all those working, if they are 1 FA SP from being in the playoffs? I think it's a legit question, if people think the system is a playoff caliber system, why fire the GM?

Because... those things... weren't working? 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Mike Sixel:

 

I'm not sure who is implying the Twins are "one FA SP from being in the playoffs."  I think most posters would agree that we need (or would like to have) one or two new SP in 2017 – whether by trade or free agency or promotion – but the team does have other needs. It needs one or two more (probably FA) relief pitchers, perhaps a 4th outfielder and shortstop (possibly homegrown).

 

Also, since Ryan was fired, the Twins also replaced its starting catcher and made apparent decisions regarding Trevor May (to try him out as a starter) and Miguel Sano (giving him 3B).

 

Changing catcher, and the decisions around May and Sano, might have been different with Ryan as GM, vs Falvey and Levine. 

 

Rebuilding is a process. There are a myriad of decisions – by the FO, the manager, hitting, pitching and other coaches - and by the players themselves on a field – which can make or break each game and a full season. If all the Major League teams had 2016 to play over, would the Cubs still be the World Champions? Maybe or maybe not. 

 

It's a matter of changing philosophies, changing the culture of a team which can have a positive (or negative) effect on players and winning. 

 

Those are some of the reasons, I believe, Ryan was fired.

[Mike Sixel]

Several people have posted that once these young players mature this year, and they acquire one more legit SP .... that the team is a playoff team. Those are the exact people that I have asked why Ryan was fired. I have not asked anyone else. I have not implied everyone believes that. I have not stated that everything was working fine. Not sure how this is about me, rather than the question to those that have stated it....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Several people have posted that once these young players mature this year, and they acquire one more legit SP .... that the team is a playoff team. Those are the exact people that I have asked why Ryan was fired. I have not asked anyone else. I have not implied everyone believes that. I have not stated that everything was working fine. Not sure how this is about me, rather than the question to those that have stated it....

For the record, when I said that comment about people saying "why didn't they just keep TR?", I didn't have you in mind. I was thinking of someone else.

 

Until you responded to that post, I wasn't even aware you ever said such a thing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

For the record, when I said that comment about people saying "why didn't they just keep TR?", I didn't have you in mind. I was thinking of someone else.

 

Until you responded to that post, I wasn't even aware you ever said such a thing.

 

Wishing i hadn't now.....

[TheLeviathan]

I think Mike's question is a valid one to consider.  If you are patting the new FO on the back for their keen insight in how good the team was in spite of it's record, aren't you implying that the last FO had built a good team?

 

I'm sure people will add some nuance to their distinctions, but I see where he's getting that flavor.  It's been all over this thread.  It's hard to swallow the idea of someone saying "Well of course things weren't working!  Look at the situation they were fired in!  But thank goodness we have these guys here to leave things largely the same because our situation is actually pretty good!"

 

I sort of "huh?" at that too.

[Mr. Brooks]

For the record, when I said that comment about people saying "why didn't they just keep TR?", I didn't have you in mind. I was thinking of someone else.

 

Until you responded to that post, I wasn't even aware you ever said such a thing.

If you were thinking of me, I said it on the same context as Mike.

I was happy to see Ryan fired and have patience with the new guys.

 

I just get frustrated when people insist that the pieces are in place, and we only need internal improvement to compete.

 

It was rhetorical- why fire the GM if you think he assembled the right players and they just need more time to improve?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think Mike's question is a valid one to consider.  If you are patting the new FO on the back for their keen insight in how good the team was in spite of it's record, aren't you implying that the last FO had built a good team?

 

I'm sure people will add some nuance to their distinctions, but I see where he's getting that flavor.  It's been all over this thread.  It's hard to swallow the idea of someone saying "Well of course things weren't working!  Look at the situation they were fired in!  But thank goodness we have these guys here to leave things largely the same because our situation is actually pretty good!"

 

I sort of "huh?" at that too.

That's why I view 2017 as an evaluation season. Run through the roster, find out what you have, discard what isn't good, trade at the deadline, and prepare to actually build a team in 2018.

 

There's young talent on this team, now we need to figure out what is MLB talent and what needs to go away.

 

If the team somehow pleasantly surprises in 2017, well, that's nice. It doesn't really change my view of the season unless the Twins are miles better than anyone expects.

[jimmer]

 

That's why I view 2017 as an evaluation season. Run through the roster, find out what you have, discard what isn't good, trade at the deadline, and prepare to actually build a team in 2018.

 

There's young talent on this team, now we need to figure out what is MLB talent and what needs to go away.

 

If the team somehow pleasantly surprises in 2017, well, that's nice. It doesn't really change my view of the season unless the Twins are miles better than anyone expects.

Brock, with all respect, how many evaluation years are we going to have? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock, with all respect, how many evaluation years are we going to have? 

One. Whatever happened before November of 2016 should be irrelevant to this front office.

 

We may feel differently as fans but they need to build their team, not placate a fanbase with moves they don't believe are the best decisions to make right now.

[jimmer]

 

One. Whatever happened before November of 2016 should be irrelevant to this front office.

 

We may feel differently as fans but they need to build their team, not placate a fanbase with moves they don't believe are the best decisions to make right now.

Fair; however, we'll see if it's just one.

Edited February 2, 2017 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fair; however, we'll see if it's just one.

I hope it is. That's why I want to see them sift through as many of the Eddie Rosarios, Kyle Gibsons, Kennys Vargas, et al, as they can through the first half of the season.

 

Find out who is worth keeping, who isn't, and move aggressively with that decision.

 

I hope the days of watching the Pat Deans of the world flounder for four months at a time are behind us.

[TheLeviathan]

I too hope the decision making process appears decisively different as the season progresses.  So far we haven't had much tangible evidence to suggest it is.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Several people have posted that once these young players mature this year, and they acquire one more legit SP .... that the team is a playoff team. Those are the exact people that I have asked why Ryan was fired. I have not asked anyone else. I have not implied everyone believes that. I have not stated that everything was working fine. Not sure how this is about me, rather than the question to those that have stated it....

 

Ryan was fired because it was becoming apparent to Pohlad that Ryan was no longer up to the job, and a new set of eyes was needed. It was also becoming clearer to Pohlad that the analytic style and successes of younger GMs was no longer a fluke. 

 

To top it off, last season's team, right out of the gate, was almost purposefully assembled to lose 90 games. Trevor May was kept in the bullpen. Sano was put in the outfield (but in hindsight probably had some maturing to do anyway). Nolasco over Duffey, while Duffey finished 2015 pretty impressively. Opening day we went with Buxton and he wasn't ready; disappointing but not unexpected. Perkins was hurt but wouldn't tell anyone. 

 

Then you had the disappointing decisions of Molitor in that opening week: using Jepsen in tight spots, using D. Santana as a starting outfielder at the top of the order, not to mention some odd in-game decisions that I don't necessarily recall at the moment.

 

Arcia was a train wreck (I was wrong about him) though in his defense he was never really allowed to settle into a routine. Ryan's big acquisition was JR Murphy who didn't exactly start out hot, and a bunch of other guys had slow starts too. 

 

When the team was sitting 8-20 in early May, the release of Casey Fein and demoting a couple other relievers was billed as a major overhaul of the roster, or some such. It obviously wasn't enough. In those following weeks was about the time Pohlad started sending hints to Ryan.

 

Last season's team, simply was bungled to perfection.

 

You don't agree?

[drivlikejehu]

 

I think Mike's question is a valid one to consider.  If you are patting the new FO on the back for their keen insight in how good the team was in spite of it's record, aren't you implying that the last FO had built a good team?

 

I'm sure people will add some nuance to their distinctions, but I see where he's getting that flavor.  It's been all over this thread.  It's hard to swallow the idea of someone saying "Well of course things weren't working!  Look at the situation they were fired in!  But thank goodness we have these guys here to leave things largely the same because our situation is actually pretty good!"

 

I sort of "huh?" at that too.

 

Are you seriously claiming that Falvey and Levine's decision-making is based on the idea that the Twins are already a good team?

 

If you believe that, you have an incredibly high pain threshold to continue following the Twins. If that's true the Twins will be lucky to lose less than 1,000 games over the next decade.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Are you seriously claiming that Falvey and Levine's decision-making is based on the idea that the Twins are already a good team?

 

If you believe that, you have an incredibly high pain threshold to continue following the Twins. If that's true the Twins will be lucky to lose less than 1,000 games over the next decade.

 

I would suggest you more thoroughly read what you quoted and responded too.  Not to mention the context.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I would suggest you more thoroughly read what you quoted and responded too.  Not to mention the context.

 

I did, but I don't see anyone "patting the new FO on the back for their keen insight in how good the team was . . . " This is a sentiment that exists only in your imagination.

 

In context, it appears to be another form of your critique regarding the FO's inaction, which this time you expressed through a straw-man. Literally zero people on TD have expressed a position even similar to what you are claiming. 

 

You either didn't read the posts you allegedly are responding to, or alternatively, chose to mis-characterize them rather than address the points made.

Edited February 3, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[TheLeviathan]

 

I did, but I don't see anyone "patting the new FO on the back for their keen insight in how good the team was . . . " This is a sentiment that exists only in your imagination]

 

There is an earlier post in this thread, liked by the author of this article and 6 others, that states the team's talent is worthy of upper 70 wins and is "believed in" across the industry.  The post clearly implies the new FO is right to also believe in this talent.  Similar sentiments have been less directly stated, but of similar tone.

 

So, not imagined at all.  Again, please read the context of the discussion.

Edited February 3, 2017 by TheLeviathan

[drivlikejehu]

 

There is an earlier post in this thread, liked by the author of this article and 6 others, that states the team's talent is worthy of upper 70 wins and is "believed in" across the industry.  The post clearly implies the new FO is right to also believe in this talent.  Similar sentiments have been less directly stated, but of similar tone.

 

So, not imagined at all.  Again, please read the context of the discussion.

 

But when did anyone say that "upper 70 wins" makes the Twins "good"? Or are you saying that? Sorry, I'm struggling to understand the "context" wherein projecting a team under .500 is saying that they are "good" and means that management should "leave things largely the same."

[Paul]

To objectively understand the current Twins situation it's important to not underestimate what the new FO considers their number 1 task.  I've read it stated many times and ways in numerous interviews with them.  In their words: "Change the culture"  "Get everybody on the same page"  Reach out to everybody" etc.

 

The current situation has its genesis in whatever transpired in the clubhouse in 2011. It was apparent to me that the clubhouse was lost.  When that happens it's almost impossible to get back without changing either the FO or the majority of the players.  The player roster is almost completely turned over from then but, the residual effect continues to contaminate every player to a degree.  Countering this effect was Torri's contribution in "15".  Without a leader with his charisma they finally realized the FO had to be overhauled.  The new guys are focused and working hard on this.  This could improve fast.  With everyone pushing in the same direction this year could be shocking to a lot of people.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ryan was fired because it was becoming apparent to Pohlad that Ryan was no longer up to the job, and a new set of eyes was needed. It was also becoming clearer to Pohlad that the analytic style and successes of younger GMs was no longer a fluke. 

 

To top it off, last season's team, right out of the gate, was almost purposefully assembled to lose 90 games. Trevor May was kept in the bullpen. Sano was put in the outfield (but in hindsight probably had some maturing to do anyway). Nolasco over Duffey, while Duffey finished 2015 pretty impressively. Opening day we went with Buxton and he wasn't ready; disappointing but not unexpected. Perkins was hurt but wouldn't tell anyone. 

 

Then you had the disappointing decisions of Molitor in that opening week: using Jepsen in tight spots, using D. Santana as a starting outfielder at the top of the order, not to mention some odd in-game decisions that I don't necessarily recall at the moment.

 

Arcia was a train wreck (I was wrong about him) though in his defense he was never really allowed to settle into a routine. Ryan's big acquisition was JR Murphy who didn't exactly start out hot, and a bunch of other guys had slow starts too. 

 

When the team was sitting 8-20 in early May, the release of Casey Fein and demoting a couple other relievers was billed as a major overhaul of the roster, or some such. It obviously wasn't enough. In those following weeks was about the time Pohlad started sending hints to Ryan.

 

Last season's team, simply was bungled to perfection.

 

You don't agree?

 

Uh, I agree completely. OTHER people are posting they are 1 SP away from the playoffs.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

To objectively understand the current Twins situation it's important to not underestimate what the new FO considers their number 1 task.  I've read it stated many times and ways in numerous interviews with them.  In their words: "Change the culture"  "Get everybody on the same page"  Reach out to everybody" etc.

 

The current situation has its genesis in whatever transpired in the clubhouse in 2011. It was apparent to me that the clubhouse was lost.  When that happens it's almost impossible to get back without changing either the FO or the majority of the players.  The player roster is almost completely turned over from then but, the residual effect continues to contaminate every player to a degree.  Countering this effect was Torri's contribution in "15".  Without a leader with his charisma they finally realized the FO had to be overhauled.  The new guys are focused and working hard on this.  This could improve fast.  With everyone pushing in the same direction this year could be shocking to a lot of people.

 

They also said not to get too attached to any current Twins......

[Darius]

Was it worst-case-scenario for the most of the pitching staff? I'm more inclined to think that some of those guys are just varying degrees of bad players (Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Duffey).

 

I'm still optimistic that Berrios can figure something out and be an actual useful rotation member (useful in MLB terms, which is a higher standard than Twins terms). But, it may not be this year.

 

Santana is getting up there. He has some miles on that arm.

 

I think the rotation could easily be just as bad.

[Doomtints]

 

Was it worst-case-scenario for the most of the pitching staff? I'm more inclined to think that some of those guys are just varying degrees of bad players (Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Duffey).

I'm still optimistic that Berrios can figure something out and be an actual useful rotation member (useful in MLB terms, which is a higher standard than Twins terms). But, it may not be this year.

Santana is getting up there. He has some miles on that arm.

I think the rotation could easily be just as bad.

 

 

Berrios has been great in the minors but terrible in the majors.

 

Unfortunately, I read an article recently that pointed out that Berrios has passed an MLB innings threshold for futility where few players have recovered from and became productive.  And yes, there are examples of many players who dominated the minors, were top prospects in their systems, who hit this same wall. The odds are already against Berrios ever being good in the majors, so the quicker he turns it around the better.