Passan: Dodgers Nearing Deal for Forsythe

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well, yeah.

 

Except your personal preference is just that.  If we're going to talk about trade returns, we're talking about general consensus of the players involved not our own personal scouting book on each player.

 

Given Berrios had many red flags as well (and people putting him as a #3 ceiling) he and DeLeon are a good comp.  If I started a "Berrios and Mejia are barely different as prospects" thread...how do you think that would be received?

[AZTwin]

Except your personal preference is just that. If we're going to talk about trade returns, we're talking about general consensus of the players involved not our own personal scouting book on each player.

 

Given Berrios had many red flags as well (and people putting him as a #3 ceiling) he and DeLeon are a good comp. If I started a "Berrios and Mejia are barely different as prospects" thread...how do you think that would be received?

Berrios floor is much higher. Think his ceiling is higher too. Think his ceiling is 2-3 and his floor is 4-5 with likely return of being a 3. I have Deleons ceiling as a 3, floor of not making it in the bigs, and likely result as a relief pitcher

[TheLeviathan]

 

Berrios floor is much higher. Think his ceiling is higher too. Think his ceiling is 2-3 and his floor is 4-5 with likely return of being a 3. I have Deleons ceiling as a 3, floor of not making it in the bigs, and likely result as a relief pitcher

 

The majority of scouting outlets disagree with you.  Especially since you just said his likely return is basically his ceiling.

 

There are scouts that think Berrios will have to be a reliever due to his spotty command and stature.  And they've been saying that even as he ascended through the minors.  

[USAFChief]

I believe DeLeon and Berrios are similar comps.  I think I would trade Dozier for Berrios straight up.

But you've repeatedly affirmed you wouldn't trade Dozier for De Leon straight up.

[AZTwin]

The majority of scouting outlets disagree with you. Especially since you just said his likely return is basically his ceiling.

 

There are scouts that think Berrios will have to be a reliever due to his spotty command and stature. And they've been saying that even as he ascended through the minors.

So you think both pitchers are likely relievers yet you trade Dozier for one of them? Makes zero sense. Difference between berrios and del Leon is that berrios throws more than 150 innings (actually around 170+) while deleon can barely get above 110 innings. Huge difference

[TheLeviathan]

 

So you think both pitchers are likely relievers yet you trade Dozier for one of them? Makes zero sense. Difference between berrios and del Leon is that berrios throws more than 150 innings (actually around 170+) while deleon can barely get above 110 innings. Huge difference

 

Knapp addressed some of that in the Pioneer Press article.  But it is a concern I share about him.  I also have concerns about Berrios though.

[TheLeviathan]

 

But you've repeatedly affirmed you wouldn't trade Dozier for De Leon straight up.

 

If I truly felt I couldn't get anything else in that deal (which I don't believe to be the case), I may well have taken him alone.  But I wasn't in those conversations.  Having two Berrios-types, plus May in the rotation would sure make me feel a lot better about the long term outlook of the team.

[jimmer]

 

Me: mlb lists him as the 33rd prospect, and the 7th best pitching prospect.

 

drjim:The overall 100 for mlb.com hasn't been released/updated yet. He could be even higher than 33.

 

Me: I looked at the overall list. Not one lefty ahead of him. So #7 RHP and #7 pitcher.

 

drjim: Maybe, but the overall list is from last year and hasn't been updated yet and Groome was a draft pick.

 

Could be #7 though.

New list out, still #33 overall.  #8 RHP (and #8 overall pitcher).

 

We have 3 in the top 100. Our highest prospect is 50 (the other two are in the 90s.)

[gunnarthor]

 

Except your personal preference is just that.  If we're going to talk about trade returns, we're talking about general consensus of the players involved not our own personal scouting book on each player.

 

Given Berrios had many red flags as well (and people putting him as a #3 ceiling) he and DeLeon are a good comp.  If I started a "Berrios and Mejia are barely different as prospects" thread...how do you think that would be received?

Not sure there's much of a general consensus on De Leon - mlbpipeline held him virtually in the same spot in the 30s while Klaw has him in the 70s. Sickels sees him as an ace, fangraphs tabs him as a #3/4. That's a bit of range there. And obviously the Twins had their own internal opinion of De Leon.

[The Wise One]

 

The majority of scouting outlets disagree with you.  Especially since you just said his likely return is basically his ceiling.

 

There are scouts that think Berrios will have to be a reliever due to his spotty command and stature.  And they've been saying that even as he ascended through the minors.  

Stature as an issue. 6 foot versus 6 2.  What is the difference in pitching at those heights.  So are the real major league front office types or screen dwellers looking at computers making pronouncements  that you quote

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not sure there's much of a general consensus on De Leon - mlbpipeline held him virtually in the same spot in the 30s while Klaw has him in the 70s. Sickels sees him as an ace, fangraphs tabs him as a #3/4. That's a bit of range there. And obviously the Twins had their own internal opinion of De Leon.

 

Keith Law was also very slow to put Berrios as high as he did.  It isn't that there has to be an agreed upon consensus, but more about what is the general tenor of the evaluations.  And they ring a lot like they did with Berrios.

[drjim]

Keith Law was also very slow to put Berrios as high as he did. It isn't that there has to be an agreed upon consensus, but more about what is the general tenor of the evaluations. And they ring a lot like they did with Berrios.

Maybe Law is right about Berrios.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Maybe Law is right about Berrios.

 

Maybe.  I acknowledge that possibility as well.

 

He's still a significantly better prospect than Mejia.

[drjim]

Maybe. I acknowledge that possibility as well.

 

He's still a significantly better prospect than Mejia.

Obviously.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Obviously.

 

These last few pages seem to indicate that it isn't nearly as obvious as it should be.  At least not when we decide to swap in a similar prospect to Berrios (DeLeon) and make the same comparison.  Which is where this vein of conversation started.

[drjim]

 

These last few pages seem to indicate that it isn't nearly as obvious as it should be.  At least not when we decide to swap in a similar prospect to Berrios (DeLeon) and make the same comparison.  Which is where this vein of conversation started.

 

Fair enough. It's a big board, lots of opinions welcome.

[Otto von Ballpark]

One more thought: I wonder if there was some value in converting a single-position guy to a pitcher (or pitchers) who would have a wider market?  Simply put, a team only needs one second baseman, but they need 5 SP and many aim for multiple quality RP too.  It seems like a pitcher wouldn't necessarily have to hit any great upside or WAR projection to replicate Dozier's apparent market value at a future date.

 

Obviously it would still have to be weighed against the other factors discussed upthread, but it was just an angle I didn't recall seeing explicitly mentioned.

[DaveW]

Spoke to Source again: General feeling amongst peers in other orgs: Twins overplayed hand way too much, Dodgers were willing to accept a lesser player (Forsythe) once it was clear Twins were asking too much for third player.

 

One peer: (paraphrased) Twins better hope Dozier comes out of the gate white hot, otherwise will be huge regret passing up trade to LAD.

[Doomtints]

 

Spoke to Source again: General feeling amongst peers in other orgs: Twins overplayed hand way too much, Dodgers were willing to accept a lesser player (Forsythe) once it was clear Twins were asking too much for third player.

One peer: (paraphrased) Twins better hope Dozier comes out of the gate white hot, otherwise will be huge regret passing up trade to LAD.

 

Seems like you said this before, though. I suspect the people who did not listen before will still not listen.

[Loosey]

 

Spoke to Source again: General feeling amongst peers in other orgs: Twins overplayed hand way too much, Dodgers were willing to accept a lesser player (Forsythe) once it was clear Twins were asking too much for third player.

One peer: (paraphrased) Twins better hope Dozier comes out of the gate white hot, otherwise will be huge regret passing up trade to LAD.

If true, hopefully we can chalk this up to new front office trying to make too much of a statement on first trade and they learned their lesson the market is what it is.  However, if the deal was on only De Leon + fringy dudes I am okay with them standing firm and passing.

[DaveW]

 

Seems like you said this before, though. I suspect the people who did not listen before will still not listen.

Not really concerned about that, just passing along what I was told in the last 24 hours.

[Mr. Brooks]

I really hope that Dave's source is wrong, because passing on Deleon AND Alvarez is, to me, a fireable offense.

And I don't want to have to bail on the FO this soon.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I really hope that Dave's source is wrong, because passing on Deleon AND Alvarez is, to me, a fireable offense.
And I don't want to have to bail on the FO this soon.

 

Not quite firable, but pretty darn close, IMO. 

[DodgerFan1234]

I hope Dave is right.  This Yadier Alvarez kid the Dodgers just re-aquired with Forsythe in exchange for not doing the Dozier deal looks pretty special  .  Here's the latest Dodger top prospect list from Fanrag:

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/dodgers/burkhart-los-angeles-dodgers-top-15-prospects-2017/

[DodgerFan1234]

The one thing I haven't read on this (or other threads) is what you guys and gals think this does for F/L when negotiating with other teams.  There's going to be a set of GM's that probably think DeLeon (plus something, what is anybody's guess) should have gotten a deal done.  Others probably don't value DeLeon+ as much.  But 28 other teams saw a perfect fit drag on for months.  No matter which side of the DeLeon/Dozier trade you come out on I have to think some GM's will wonder whether they are going to be able to get a deal done with the Twins with a gun against the head like at the trading deadline.  "And if so, why waste my time with the Twins?"  Just something to think about.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The one thing I haven't read on this (or other threads) is what you guys and gals think this does for F/L when negotiating with other teams.  There's going to be a set of GM's that probably think DeLeon (plus something, what is anybody's guess) should have gotten a deal done.  Others probably don't value DeLeon+ as much.  But 28 other teams saw a perfect fit drag on for months.  No matter which side of the DeLeon/Dozier trade you come out on I have to think some GM's will wonder whether they are going to be able to get a deal done with the Twins with a gun against the head like at the trading deadline.  "And if so, why waste my time with the Twins?"  Just something to think about.

I suspect that if the Twins have a player a team needs at the deadline, the opposing GM will still pick up the phone and have a five minute conversation to figure out if they're even close to being on the same page.

[jimmer]

Alvarez, BTW, was 49th in MLB's top 100.

[nicksaviking]

The one thing I haven't read on this (or other threads) is what you guys and gals think this does for F/L when negotiating with other teams.  There's going to be a set of GM's that probably think DeLeon (plus something, what is anybody's guess) should have gotten a deal done.  Others probably don't value DeLeon+ as much.  But 28 other teams saw a perfect fit drag on for months.  No matter which side of the DeLeon/Dozier trade you come out on I have to think some GM's will wonder whether they are going to be able to get a deal done with the Twins with a gun against the head like at the trading deadline.  "And if so, why waste my time with the Twins?"  Just something to think about.

Most national pundits and fans didn't think it was enough so I can't imagine any other GM is likely going to fault the Twins for not doing it. Even if there was a rare GM who would have taken the deal, surely they are objective enough to understand not everyone is going to have the same evaluation.

 

I'd also have to think most NL GMs are thankful the Twins didn't give the Dodgers a below market deal.

[Riverbrian]

 

The one thing I haven't read on this (or other threads) is what you guys and gals think this does for F/L when negotiating with other teams.  There's going to be a set of GM's that probably think DeLeon (plus something, what is anybody's guess) should have gotten a deal done.  Others probably don't value DeLeon+ as much.  But 28 other teams saw a perfect fit drag on for months.  No matter which side of the DeLeon/Dozier trade you come out on I have to think some GM's will wonder whether they are going to be able to get a deal done with the Twins with a gun against the head like at the trading deadline.  "And if so, why waste my time with the Twins?"  Just something to think about.

 

I'd guess that the other GM's get more of the details on what was offered and turned down in their conversations. I'd also guess that they already have existing relationships with some and will be forging new relationships with the others that will carry much more weight.  

 

If being a GM is anything like every other relationship that we all have... they will have crappy relationships with some and great relationships with others and the shades in between. 

 

I think its more important that they establish precedence for themselves. 

[Oxtung]

 

The one thing I haven't read on this (or other threads) is what you guys and gals think this does for F/L when negotiating with other teams.  There's going to be a set of GM's that probably think DeLeon (plus something, what is anybody's guess) should have gotten a deal done.  Others probably don't value DeLeon+ as much.  But 28 other teams saw a perfect fit drag on for months.  No matter which side of the DeLeon/Dozier trade you come out on I have to think some GM's will wonder whether they are going to be able to get a deal done with the Twins with a gun against the head like at the trading deadline.  "And if so, why waste my time with the Twins?"  Just something to think about.

 

One thing that was true for Terry Ryan, and to me makes sense for other GM's as well, is that most of the trades he made over the last few years actually began as discussions 6 or 12 months before the trade was actually consummated. That's not to say trades can't happen quickly, but I do think the conversations the Twins have had with teams are jumping off points for further discussions as this season progresses and possibly next off season if need be.

 

So while there was no deal to be made currently with the Braves, for instance, if they should find themselves in contention come July theoretically it should become easier to actually make the trade because there is already a foundation that has been laid.