Passan: Dodgers Nearing Deal for Forsythe

[Doomtints]

 

Yes.  For now at least.  I think I'll need more than one data point to come to that conclusion.

 

"One data point" = one entire offseason.

[USAFChief]

"One data point" = one entire offseason.

The offseason hasn't reached entirety.

[twinssouth]

Perfectly fair and reasonable position.

 

My comment was more to illustrate the hypocrisy of trying to equate Meija and a guy who comps quite closely to Berrios. If I started a thread and said there was basically "no difference" in upside between those two there would be a riot. And rightfully so.

 

 

Well then, the discussion should be turned around; Would you trade Dozier straight up for Berrios OR Dozier straight up for Gonsalves (a projected 3 to 4 starter) or how about Dozier straight up for Jay(currently projected 3 starter but if gets that 3rd pitch down and improves endurance, projected 2 starter)

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well then, the discussion should be turned around; Would you trade Dozier straight up for Berrios OR Dozier straight up for Gonsalves (a projected 3 to 4 starter) or how about Dozier straight up for Jay(currently projected 3 starter but if gets that 3rd pitch down and improves endurance, projected 2 starter)

 

I believe DeLeon and Berrios are similar comps.  I think I would trade Dozier for Berrios straight up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mejia has a ceiling that was said to be a mid rotation pitcher. Deleon has the same ceiling. Neither is likely to be that  anytime soon. Deleon is  more likely than Mejia to reach that ceiling. Neither is really a sure thing.

Sure, but that's a gross oversimplification of the situation. De Leon only has a mid-rotation ceiling if you ignore the Dave Camerons of the world, who are much higher on him.

 

The consensus is that De Leon has a much higher chance of being a valuable MLB arm than does Adalberto Meija.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Let's see:

 

Prospect A, pre-2016 was ranked 23rd by BA, 24th by MLB, and 28th by BP.

Carries a 3.35 ERA,  1.125 WHIP with 12.1K/2.9 BB.

 

Prospect B, pre-2016 was ranked, um, not in the top 100 by BA, MLB or BP.

Carries a 3.29 ERA, 1.180 WHIP with a 7.7K/2.1BB

 

Practically the same guy.  Cause ERA.

 

And Dozier and Nunez are the same too?  I think the point being is that if Nunez can fetch Mejia at the deadline, Dozier at the deadline should still get something pretty good.

[nicksaviking]

Sure, but that's a gross oversimplification of the situation. De Leon only has a mid-rotation ceiling if you ignore the Dave Camerons of the world, who are much higher on him.

 

The consensus is that De Leon has a much higher chance of being a valuable MLB arm than does Adalberto Meija.

While I agree De Leon has higher odds, I'd probably disagree with saying "much" higher odds, mostly because lefties have a built in advantage.

 

But really the valuation of Mejia was hardly the point, he was bought with a Eduardo Nunez, Dozier under similar circumstances should command much more due to his longer track record of success alone.

 

I've never said the Twins will be able to get a better deal than De Leon later, but plenty of people are painting it as a near impossibility when that is far, far from the truth.

[jimmer]

 

And Dozier and Nunez are the same too?  I think the point being is that if Nunez can fetch Mejia at the deadline, Dozier at the deadline should still get something pretty good.

yeah, this is what was said' 'Eduardo Nunez of all people got a prospect of not much considerable difference last summer.  One can try to spin that, but that's saying they are close to the same talent.

 

I doubt Dozier gets more than De Leon+ at deadline or next offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

While I agree De Leon has higher odds, I'd probably disagree with saying "much" higher odds, mostly because lefties have a built in advantage.

But really the valuation of Mejia was hardly the point, he was bought with a Eduardo Nunez, Dozier under similar circumstances should command much more due to his longer track record of success alone.

I've never said the Twins will be able to get a better deal than De Leon later, but plenty of people are painting it as a near impossibility when that is far, far from the truth.

To be clear, I'm 100% against a De Leon - Dozier straight swap.

 

My point is that comparing De Leon to Meija is a really bad comp. A really bad comp.

 

Would anyone compare Berrios to Meija? 

[jimmer]

 

To be clear, I'm 100% against a De Leon - Dozier straight swap.

 

My point is that comparing De Leon to Meija is a really bad comp. A really bad comp.

 

Would anyone compare Berrios to Meija? 

This.  In it's entirety.

[TheLeviathan]

And Dozier and Nunez are the same too?  I think the point being is that if Nunez can fetch Mejia at the deadline, Dozier at the deadline should still get something pretty good.

Gotta keep it in context. Nick said there was a minimal difference in the prospects themselves. That is preposterous.

 

And we would all agree with that if some Dodger fan said Mejia and Berrios were roughly the same.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think the phrase was "not much considerable difference" which I took to mean they are different, just not vastly different depending on how you want to look at it.

[TheLeviathan]

I think the phrase was "not much considerable difference" which I took to mean they are different, just not vastly different depending on how you want to look at it.

Is there really a way to spin "Mejia and Berrios are basically the same" into making sense?

 

Because that is what DeLeon/Mejia is.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Is there really a way to spin "Mejia and Berrios are basically the same" into making sense?

Because that is what DeLeon/Mejia is.

Nunez is to Meija as Dozier is to De Leon. That's how I read it. I think a De Leon type prospect or more will be available at some future point, if need be.

[nicksaviking]

To be clear, I'm 100% against a De Leon - Dozier straight swap.

 

My point is that comparing De Leon to Meija is a really bad comp. A really bad comp.

 

Would anyone compare Berrios to Meija?

 

I get that I'm in the minority regarding De Leon, but that's hardly the point. People are arguing that there is slim to no chance Dozier could get better value later.

 

People are trying to change the argument to a De Leon/Mejia comparison when in fact it has nothing to do with Dozier's value and only used to point out that trading Dozier later can still be done.

[nicksaviking]

Is there really a way to spin "Mejia and Berrios are basically the same" into making sense?

Because that is what DeLeon/Mejia is.

No, I'll let you handle the spin, since that's completely bastardizing the point.

[TheLeviathan]

 

No, I'll let you handle the spin, since that's completely bastardizing the point.

 

You continue to like posts that affirm my interpretation.  Did you mis-speak at first and mean to say we can find a prospect relative to Mejia or did you in fact mean the two have a negligible difference?

 

And that sort of is the point.  Because if you mean the first thing....ok, I'd argue DeLeon is already that, but I can see how that could be debated.  If you mean the second thing, you're making an absolutely silly comp in response to my point.

[nicksaviking]

You continue to like posts that affirm my interpretation. Did you mis-speak at first and mean to say we can find a prospect relative to Mejia or did you in fact mean the two have a negligible difference?

 

I meant neither. I meant that despite your insistence that it is unlikely or impossible, Eduardo Nunez returned a value just about everyone here agreed was at least equal, if not more, than his value last summer.

 

Why is it next to impossible for Dozier to do the same this summer?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I meant neither. I meant that despite your insistence that it is unlikely or impossible, Eduardo Nunez returned a value just about everyone here agreed was at least equal, if not more, than his value last summer.

Why is it next to impossible for Dozier to do the same this summer?

 

Well, the last decade or so of trade history would be a big part of it.  And that's been discussed several places.  

 

Pitching prospects ranked as highly as DeLeon have not moved for a hitter for a very long time.  Hitters, in general, have not headlined deals returning top 50 prospects.  When they do, they are either a unicorn (Lucroy) or dealt along with a pitcher. 

 

The simple, plain fact is that the history of dealing position players for the last decade or so is not in favor of your hope.  Hence why I said, now that we're keeping him, that I hope we buck that trend.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I meant neither. I meant that despite your insistence that it is unlikely or impossible, Eduardo Nunez returned a value just about everyone here agreed was at least equal, if not more, than his value last summer.

 

Why is it next to impossible for Dozier to do the same this summer?

It's much easier to find a return that is equal to or greater than a lower value.

 

The Nunez trade, or the Butera trade, or whatever, while producing good returns relative to the asset, don't have much bearing on the odds of a getting a prospect like De Leon.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I guess I am not hung up on De Leon specifically, or how the media ranks him. He wasn't the right guy right now. Remember the Dodger guy who tweeted the Dodgers were not high on him.

 

[The Wise One]

 

No prospect is a sure thing. You will not get a sure thing arm for Brian Dozier.

I can't believe this is being pushed. Would any of you say this about Meija and Berrios?

You are right that no prospect is a sure thing. Glad you can admit that. How do you then miss that is the very reason you need more than a  De Leon for Dozier

[The Wise One]

 

Sure, but that's a gross oversimplification of the situation. De Leon only has a mid-rotation ceiling if you ignore the Dave Camerons of the world, who are much higher on him.

 

The consensus is that De Leon has a much higher chance of being a valuable MLB arm than does Adalberto Meija.

Stats only guys look at numbers and not much deeper. Using Cameron's logic,, Kendall Graveman should be doing as well as Shields (before last year). Did not happen. The Cameron's of the world can be high on a player as a minor leaguer but it is it is a view through a dot in a piece of paper.

[gunnarthor]

A lot of this just goes on how you read De Leon. I tend toward pessimism on him, always have, but if you think he's a Berrios-type, the Mejia comp doesn't work as well. If you think he's toward the back of a top 100 list, plus the sore shoulder, plus the age, plus the durability concerns it's not quite as out of whack as Nick suggested. De Leon is still a better prospect (fangraphs guy put a 55 FV on him to Mejia's 45 but also seems more sure of Mejia's future) but the odds of him having a better ML career than Mejia (lower ceiling, higher floor in that he's durable) is probably closer than some want to admit.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you think he's toward the back of a top 100 list, plus the sore shoulder, plus the age, plus the durability concerns it's not quite as out of whack as Nick suggested.

I can't speak for the skeptics, but this sounds like it would involve double-penalizing De Leon for a few factors. In other words, it would be awfully hard to justify a "back of the top 100 list" ranking if you were truly ignoring age and health and durability.

 

Also, by the time you get to Mejia's rank, the ranks cease to be all that meaningful. Sickels would usually list ~100 guys who all had a claim to be ranked 125-175 or whatever. No matter how much one is skeptical of De Leon being an elite prospect right now, there is basically no argument for putting him in that class in terms of rank or value.

[gunnarthor]

 

I can't speak for the skeptics, but this sounds like it would involve double-penalizing De Leon for a few factors. In other words, it would be awfully hard to justify a "back of the top 100 list" ranking if you were truly ignoring age and health and durability.

Also, by the time you get to Mejia's rank, the ranks cease to be all that meaningful. Sickels would usually list ~100 guys who all had a claim to be ranked 125-175 or whatever. No matter how much one is skeptical of De Leon being an elite prospect right now, there is basically no argument for putting him in that class in terms of rank or value.

I'm not sure that's double discounting. His fastball is 91-92, we've heard complaints about flat plain on it and whispers he doesn't have a true out-pitch at the ML level. His stuff isn't on the same level as Berrios' although it is ahead of Mejia's.

 

Additionally, I'm not sure there's much difference between the number 73 prospect on a list and the number 93. My guess is that the tiers are much closer than we fans appreciate and once you've gone down a few tiers, a lot of other stuff comes into play.

 

Now, all that sounded unduly harsh. I'd love to have De Leon in our system and I think he's a better prospect than Mejia. I'm probably more comfortable with Mejia's floor but De Leon's ceiling - esp if I'm wrong to be so negative - is far more exciting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mejia wasn't #93 on any proper list. He was #93 on BA's midseason list which excluded gtaduates AND new signings/draftees. Probably closer to 130 in the full universe of prospects, which might be closer to 175 in terms of value than to even 73.

 

Was that Law who had De Leon at #73? I know he is not high on his stuff, but I would be pretty surprised if that was #73 just based on stuff and stats alone (excluding age, health, and durability as you listed separately).

[TheLeviathan]

It should also be only right and fair to compare DeLeon at his best/worst if we do the same with Mejia and Berrios. It feels like a lot of cherry picking.

 

Berrios has had vocal detractors of his own. He and DeLeon seem very comparable and then personal preference takes it from there.

[AZTwin]

I believe DeLeon and Berrios are similar comps. I think I would trade Dozier for Berrios straight up.

I disagree. Just look at innings pitched during minor league career. Huge difference

[gunnarthor]

 

He and DeLeon seem very comparable and then personal preference takes it from there.

Well, yeah.