Article: Cardinals "Very Much In" on Brian Dozier

[markos]

 

Alvarez looks to me like a Tommy John in the making.  With his 100 MPH fastball and second-pitch being a slider, not to mention his delivery that has been described as "mildly violent" -- I would either pass or groom him to be a closer and start limiting his innings immediately. 

 

Plus, he is 3 years out at a minimum.

 

If the Twins are balking at anything regarding Alvarez, they're simply being silly.  If he's off the table, move on.  If he's on the table, grab him and change his path to the majors before his arm falls off.  He has still yet to play A+ and has yet to have a big workload. He could be the best closer in the league by the time he debuts or his arm could shred after a very short career as a starter. 

I would argue that every pitcher is potentially a Tommy John in the making. Where did you read that Alvarez's delivery is "mildly violent"? I've read that he is very smooth for a guy who throws 100+.

[Doomtints]

 

Good teams don't avoid adding talent because they're worried about blocking a bunch of mediocre or unproven players. They stockpile as much as they can and sort it out later. Most of that sorting happens naturally because the flameout rate is so high on young players.

 

Yep.  There is a reason the Dodgers have so much talent in the minors.  They paid for enough talent in the majors to allow the minor league players to develop.  You have to replenish the system at both ends.

[Doomtints]

 

I would argue that every pitcher is potentially a Tommy John in the making. Where did you read that Alvarez's delivery is "mildly violent"? I've read that he is very smooth for a guy who throws 100+.

 

Grant Jones wrote that.  He scouted Alvarez twice last year.  Jones is a younger scout but has already held jobs with the Mets and Brewers along with working with college and minor league teams. 

[doscinco]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VIpgjyzgxzc

 

Looks like Alvarez is playing long toss. Nothing about that delivery screams concern or violent.

[howieramone2]

 

That's right.  But the Twins have a much bigger hole at SP than they do at 2B.  After Dozier goes, Polanco slides into his spot.  Dozier is the only person the team has that can help fix their pitching problem.

Not so. We can package several of our young starting pitchers at AA to get a proven starting pitcher. Also, the free agent starting piching market is weak, but there are several who have a much better chance to help the team next season than Berrios, or heaven forbid Gonsalves. We have money to spend, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching.

 

The question is, is our new management team's marching orders to win ASAP, or are we embarking on a new 5 year plan.

[markos]

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

Are you positive that the Alvarez on the table is the top-prospect, and not some other random guy in the Dodgers system named Alvarez?

[DaveW]

Are you positive that the Alvarez on the table is the top-prospect, and not some other random guy in the Dodgers system named Alvarez?

Yes

[TheLeviathan]

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

 

I think we all want to believe you, but your source was confident enough to put a 24 hour window on things and we're well past that.  Perhaps your source isn't as close to the talks as they think.  We've reached the point where skepticism is warranted.

[Kwak]

 

I think we all want to believe you, but your source was confident enough to put a 24 hour window on things and we're well past that.  Perhaps your source isn't as close to the talks as they think.  We've reached the point where skepticism is warranted.

There will be an announcement by Monday Noon--or this rumor is "busted". There won't be a Dodgers-Twins trade including Dozier.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not so. We can package several of our young starting pitchers at AA to get a proven starting pitcher. Also, the free agent starting piching market is weak, but there are several who have a much better chance to help the team next season than Berrios, or heaven forbid Gonsalves. We have money to spend, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching.

 

The question is, is our new management team's marching orders to win ASAP, or are we embarking on a new 5 year plan.

 

5 year plan? How is trading Dozier for near ready players a 5 year plan?

[howieramone2]

 

You mean the same guys you just trashed?  I think I looked like this reading that post:

 

 

Just slightly more handsome of course.

Where did I trash Stewart, Jay, Rosario, or Jorge? 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Where did I trash Stewart, Jay, Rosario, or Jorge? 

 

Oh so you're going to trade three of them for a starter and then we'll have one starter?  That's your plan?

[howieramone2]

 

5 year plan? How is trading Dozier for near ready players a 5 year plan?

Specifically, which near ready players are you speaking of? All I've seen mentioned is pie in the sky. I do find it refreshing, that our prolific posters have suddenly and unexpectedly seem to have embraced patience.

Edited December 28, 2016 by howieramone2

[Otto von Ballpark]

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

Can your source also confirm the Dodgers amusement now as the Twins try to leak rumors about St Louis and other clubs? Because they have to be either amused or offended by the Twins dawdling over their fairly aggressive offer.

 

For that matter, now that we know the Twins are leaking info to Doogie, wouldn't the Twins have leaked the De Leon and Alvarez offer by now to try to improve their bargaining with St Louis, San Fran, etc.? Almost a month has passed, De Leon has long been confirmed, and multiple teams have been involved, yet no one but you has confirmed Alvarez has been offered with De Leon.

 

Seems far more likely that Alvarez hasn't been offered with De Leon. How does your source reconcile all of the above?

 

I should add, I have never picked on you or your source, I am simply trying to figure this out, maybe to elicit an explanation from your source...

Edited December 28, 2016 by spycake

[HitInAPinch]

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

Hey Dave, when you say "DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table"  is that individually [either, or] or both for Dozier?

 

Just want to clarify....    

Edited December 28, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[PseudoSABR]

The Twins have reason to leak trade inquiries (in spite of their seriousness).  And the Cards have reasons to publicly deny their pursuit (in spite of their seriousness). 

[Doomtints]

 

Not so. We can package several of our young starting pitchers at AA to get a proven starting pitcher.

 

Which would make the problem worse.

[Doomtints]

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VIpgjyzgxzc

Looks like Alvarez is playing long toss. Nothing about that delivery screams concern or violent.

 

I have seen a different video of him pitching.  His delivery seems fine, it's what his arm does after he releases the ball that seems like he could damage something.  The weirdness is after he releases the ball.  You can't see it in this particular video. 

[Han Joelo]

Man, the inferiority complex is really rearing its head again. Minnesota: where the players are average (and bound to regress) and the management is a bunch of clumsy rubes.

 

If Dozier is our only hope for ever possibly finding competitive pitching, I'm glad management is trying to maximize their "asset."

[The Wise One]

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

It would be likely the only way they are both on the table would be like Cagney and Hope

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOoNOs8Ql28

Edited December 31, 2016 by The Wise One

[Oxtung]

Good teams don't avoid adding talent because they're worried about blocking a bunch of mediocre or unproven players. They stockpile as much as they can and sort it out later. Most of that sorting happens naturally because the flameout rate is so high on young players.

 

It might sound promising to rattle off a long list of names but that list gets thin in a hurry when you really evaluate it. Santana is in his mid-30's and is the best pitcher in that group, he's not going to be here for much longer. Gibson could pitch himself out of a job this year. Hughes is a lottery ticket to ever start effectively again. May and Duffey are running out of time to establish themselves in the rotation and may be permanently bound for the bullpen. Berrios has a long ways to go and his talent will get him a lot of time to work through his struggles, but you can't count on his future right now. Mejia isn't a game changer. That leaves a lot of potential openings to rotate prospects through in a year or two. Furthermore, those prospects have ceilings as 4's and borderline 3's in some cases, with a few that could fall back to being solid relievers, but the failure rate is so high that I'm not worried about blocking someone if it means acquiring a solid #3 or better pitcher. The truly good players will always separate themselves and force their way onto the roster.

I think you and I are actually in agreement. Specifically if the Twins can get someone that is a mid-rotation starter with a good chance to be more of course they should make that trade. My point was I have no interest in bringing in MLB ready pitchers whose upside is a mid-rotation starter just because they are ready now (or soon). Pitchers rarely reach their upside and when they don't having another 4/5 does absolutely nothing to help the Twins towards contention.

[Oxtung]

But they will have 6 years to make those other big changes with DeLeon and company, versus only 2 years with Dozier.

  

That's right.  But the Twins have a much bigger hole at SP than they do at 2B.  After Dozier goes, Polanco slides into his spot.  Dozier is the only person the team has that can help fix their pitching problem.

 

I'm not arguing that Dozier shouldn't be traded. I'm pushing back on the perception that the Twins future hinges on this trade being made immediately or they are doomed because his value will fall. Or the idea that the Twins pitching will be solved if only they can get an ace out of this deal.

 

Regardless of what happens with this trade, the future of the Twins rotation hinges on the prospects already within the Twins system. They are going to fix this rotation. Even if De Leon becomes an Ace he is still just the cherry on the top.

[TheLeviathan]

 

   I'm not arguing that Dozier shouldn't be traded. I'm pushing back on the perception that the Twins future hinges on this trade being made immediately or they are doomed because his value will fall. Or the idea that the Twins pitching will be solved if only they can get an ace out of this deal.

Regardless of what happens with this trade, the future of the Twins rotation hinges on the prospects already within the Twins system. They are going to fix this rotation. Even if De Leon becomes an Ace he is still just the cherry on the top.

 

I would call the Ace the sundae not the cherry.  What we've been missing for the longest time it top end pitching.  Having one isn't just a bonus, it's an enormous difference maker.

[Oxtung]

I would call the Ace the sundae not the cherry.  What we've been missing for the longest time it top end pitching.  Having one isn't just a bonus, it's an enormous difference maker.

So is Mike Trout but not even he can carry a team to the playoffs. An Ace might bring 3 extra wins a year more than a back of the rotation pitcher. The Twins need 30. While an Ace would be great and everyone wants one the Twins future hinges on the young pitchers and hitters already in the organization.

 

Hyping the Dozier trade up by saying the Twins future depends on it forces a scenario where they are desperate, unable to walk away and as a result accept a lesser return because they absolutely must trade him.

 

To be clear I think they should trade him but if the return isn't adequate then keep him and live to play another day. That is not failure.

[TheLeviathan]

Of course no one player or one position is going to magically turn us around.  But an ace goes a lot further than some random #4 starter who is ok rather than lousy.  Star players make up ground in a hurry and I think you're underselling that by characterizing it as merely a bonus.

 

While I don't want to just dump Dozier for anything, I also know the odds of him being remotely this value are slightly north of 0%.  Not finding a way to maximize that now will represent a real loss we might pay for over the course of half a decade.

[Riverbrian]

 

I also know the odds of him being remotely this value are slightly north of 0%. 

 

I hope not based on the rumored offers thus far. 

[USAFChief]

Of course no one player or one position is going to magically turn us around.  But an ace goes a lot further than some random #4 starter who is ok rather than lousy.  Star players make up ground in a hurry and I think you're underselling that by characterizing it as merely a bonus.

 

While I don't want to just dump Dozier for anything, I also know the odds of him being remotely this value are slightly north of 0%.  Not finding a way to maximize that now will represent a real loss we might pay for over the course of half a decade.

The problem is, the odds of De Leon turning into an ace are also slightly north of 0%.

[TheLeviathan]

The problem is, the odds of De Leon turning into an ace are also slightly north of 0%.

Maybe. I don't know enough to project that.

 

But I'd rather gamble on DeLeon than bleed out Dozier for a few more 90 loss seasons.

[drjim]

 

Maybe. I don't know enough to project that.

But I'd rather gamble on DeLeon than bleed out Dozier for a few more 90 loss seasons.

 

If it's just De Leon I don't agree. There is probably a 70-80% chance that you get nothing better than a 3, with a significant part of that representing getting nothing. Missing out on that type of asset isn't going to kill a franchise.

 

There is some positive value in seeing more wins with Dozier on the team, in helping recreate a winning culture for young guys on the come, and there is still a nonzero chance that the team can compete in the next two years.

[TheLeviathan]

Without serious pitching reinforcements I think I have better odds of achieving time travel than the Twins competing with Dozier performing.