Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Riverbrian]

 

The other problem is that there is no need to make a desperation move this late into the off-season. The deadline to make a trade is still 6 months away. 

 

 

IMO... That'd be gutty with a 223 million dollar payroll.

 

It's like a 223 million dollar house with a window broken for 6 months before you fix it. 

 

 

 

[doscinco]

the Dodgers have a playoff roster w/o Dozier, you guys. I want Dozier, but it's is not like a controversial take that they're one of the best teams in the NL right now. 

[nicksaviking]

 

On the other hand, the Twins haven't had a worth wild young SP make a difference in a decade+. Their desperation for good young SP had been well documented. I don't think they're are panicking, but they can't keep running out 90+ loss seasons w/ a relatively new ballpark.

That's why the Twins can't settle for just one quality starting pitching prospect. The odds that De Leon is that franchise changing arm are slim, they need to hedge their bets and get more.

[Strato Guy]

 

The other problem is that there is no need to make a desperation move this late into the off-season. The deadline to make a trade is still 6 months away. 

If Dozier still has not been traded come July, will this thread still be going strong?

[Riverbrian]

 

the Dodgers have a playoff roster w/o Dozier, you guys. I want Dozier, but it's is not like a controversial take that they're one of the best teams in the NL right now. 

 

Yeah they do

 

But so do the Nats... Mets... Cubs... Cards... and Giants.

 

The Rockies and Pirates can't be discounted either. Plus... you can add that team that comes out of nowhere because a team comes out of nowhere every year. 

 

It's not a controversial take for the Dodgers to be considered one of the best teams in the NL right now. 

 

It would be controversial to bank on it... coast... or simply underestimate the other teams competing for a playoff spot.

 

I'm not arguing the strength of the current Dodgers on paper. I just openly question anybody who puts the hammer down when they know a nail is not pounded in.

[TheLeviathan]

 

IMO... That'd be gutty with a 223 million dollar payroll.

 

It's like a 223 million dollar house with a window broken for 6 months before you fix it. 

 

Maybe the next 6 months have a really good forecast?  It's 10 months from now that you'll need the window. 

 

So you have time to price out the best way to get your window fixed, not only at the lowest cost, but with the best craftsmanship.   

[Riverbrian]

Maybe the next 6 months have a really good forecast? It's 10 months from now that you'll need the window.

 

So you have time to price out the best way to get your window fixed, not only at the lowest cost, but with the best craftsmanship.

 

Seems it never rains in Southern California

Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before.

[darin617]

 

the Dodgers have a playoff roster w/o Dozier, you guys. I want Dozier, but it's is not like a controversial take that they're one of the best teams in the NL right now. 

 

Maybe a playoff roster but how far can they go with current squad?

 

On the same note, Gardy had the Twins in the playoffs for quite a few years as well.

[drjim]

 

If Dozier still has not been traded come July, will this thread still be going strong?

 

Clearly we'll be talking about how surprisingly good the Twins are playing.

[CiabanItReal]

 

IMO... That'd be gutty with a 223 million dollar payroll.

 

It's like a 223 million dollar house with a window broken for 6 months before you fix it. 

I think it's gutsier to push all your chips to the center of the table before you have to, if they do trade for Dozier and they get hit with injuries or bad play or a mix and wind up being noncompetitive, then it'll be foolish to have jumped the gun. It's safer to let the first 3 months play out and then go from there.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

Yeah they do

 

But so do the Nats... Mets... Cubs... Cards... and Giants.

 

The Rockies and Pirates can't be discounted either. Plus... you can add that team that comes out of nowhere because a team comes out of nowhere every year. 

 

It's not a controversial take for the Dodgers to be considered one of the best teams in the NL right now. 

 

It would be controversial to bank on it... coast... or simply underestimate the other teams competing for a playoff spot.

 

I'm not arguing the strength of the current Dodgers on paper. I just openly question anybody who puts the hammer down when they know a nail is not pounded in.

Trading for Dozier doesn't guarantee them a playoff spot anymore than resigning Utley. It makes them a little more likely, but it's not chiseled in stone.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Perhaps, that sort of depends on a variety of factors doesn't it?

 

Either way, I think he's right to suggest this is more luxury for the Dodgers and more need for the Twins.

It's kind of like "Brett Farve doesn't even need to perform like 2009 for us to be good in 2010"

 

I would get the not wanting to make an expensive move if LA and a 2-3 WAR player there.  Not much of an upgrade, but when you're a contender with a black hole at a position and the opportunity to replace it with much better arises... well, you take advantage of it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Maybe a playoff roster but how far can they go with current squad?

 

On the same note, Gardy had the Twins in the playoffs for quite a few years as well.

 

And we kept trotting Luis Rivas out at 2nd.  That got us lots of WS rings, right?

[Boom Boom]

I like how the Dodgers are playing this. They don't need Dozier nearly as much as the Twins need pitching. And with no other teams at the table, why would they raise their offer?

[Riverbrian]

Trading for Dozier doesn't guarantee them a playoff spot anymore than resigning Utley. It makes them a little more likely, but it's not chiseled in stone.

I agree with you on this completely.

 

However you stepped out of context.

 

This quote of yours was in response to my response to someone elses response... That the Dodgers are a playoff team without Dozier.

 

So... I'm not sure where to go next because I'm about to get pushed from both sides. It puts me in the middle of a discussion that when combined together says... The Dodgers are a playoff team without Dozier but not guaranteed to be a playoff team with Dozier.

 

For clarity... There are no gaurentees. I'm not selling Dozier as a playoff guarantee. I'm selling Dozier to the Dodgers because they need a 2B and we need pitching. It's one of those moments where we could help each other out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would get the not wanting to make an expensive move if LA and a 2-3 WAR player there. Not much of an upgrade, but when you're a contender with a black hole at a position and the opportunity to replace it with much better arises... well, you take advantage of it.

According to B-Ref, the Dodgers got virtually league average production at 2B in 2016 (-0.2 WAA). They were far worse in LF (-1.8 WAA).

 

I fully expect the Dodgers to make a move to address 2B in the next 6 months, but if the current price is apparently two top prospects and the supply (primarily Dozier and Forsythe) isn't likely to change much, it probably behooves them to wait it out a bit.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And we kept trotting Luis Rivas out at 2nd. That got us lots of WS rings, right?

Is this thread back to 2000s era Twins comparisons again? The Dodgers have been allocating record payrolls and consistently making aggressive midseason trades like Rich Hill, Hanley Ramirez, and Adrian Gonzalez. Just because they're not addressing their 2B need as quickly as you like doesn't make a 2000s era Twins comparison accurate.

 

And in fairness to the Dodgers, the fact that they haven't acquired any 2B yet this winter suggests they are truly exploring possibilities, even if they eventually circle back to a temporary patch to open the season. The 2000s era Twins would have already locked in Rivas or Punto and called it a day.

[gunnarthor]

Hey, Rivas was a top ranked prospect.  Those guys don't miss, apparently.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Hey, Rivas was a top ranked prospect.  Those guys don't miss, apparently.

 

Heh, I wonder how many thinking this about DeLeon did about Buxton.  Or Berrios.  Or any prospect in a Twins' uniform.

 

The Dodgers could sign Utley, patch the position, and wait to address it later.  They don't need 2B.  We desperately need pitching to pair with our young prospects.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

The Dodgers could sign Utley, patch the position, and wait to address it later.  They don't need 2B.  We desperately need pitching to pair with our young prospects.

I figure that's what the Dodgers do, which is fine for me since we've all agreed that the Dodgers haven't made a good enough trade offer for Dozier.

 

I would expect Lavine do start signing some bullpen arms soon, though.  They've been too quiet on that front.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looked at another way:

 

In order to make a Dozier trade happen today, most observers agree the Twins would require something like De Leon and Alvarez.

 

The Dodgers need Bellinger as an offensive reinforcement soon, perhaps as much or more than they need Dozier (by WAA, their 1B were equal to the 2B in 2016, and their LF were much worse).

 

By July, to address an inevitable need at the trade deadline, the Dodgers would be pretty much down to maybe Buehler and possibly Verdugo as top pieces. They might not be able to compete for top targets like Chris Archer, and if they acquire anyone, their vaunted system could be largely cleared out by August.

 

Barring another serious bidder at 2B, I think it makes sense to wait to see how things develop. Dozier is unlikely to go off the market, and the Dodgers will still probably have the pieces to make a deal in July even if tbr price hasn't gone down. But in the meantime, they can adjust to their developing needs and opportunities. Maybe by July, the Marlins are ready for another fire sale with Dee Gordon? Maybe the Dodgers want to go all-in with a guy like Archer, and can get Forsythe included at a relative discount?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hey, Rivas was a top ranked prospect. Those guys don't miss, apparently.

I get your joke/comparison, but Rivas peaked at #55 by BA, and was down to #93 by the time the Twins gave him a MLB job.

[Riverbrian]

 

I think it's gutsier to push all your chips to the center of the table before you have to, if they do trade for Dozier and they get hit with injuries or bad play or a mix and wind up being noncompetitive, then it'll be foolish to have jumped the gun. It's safer to let the first 3 months play out and then go from there.

 

"All the Chips to the Center of the Table" I agree that would be gutsy. 

 

However... the Dodgers have one of the deepest farm systems in all of baseball.

 

I don't know for sure but I don't think we are talking about "all of the chips to the center of the table". 

 

 

As for what's safer... on that point we will disagree. If I'm the Dodgers GM... I'm looking at 2B and I'm filling that hole before the season starts and when I put together the list of possibilities.

 

Dozier is #1 on my list. 

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/mlb-pipeline/id906717198?mt=2#episodeGuid=http%3A%2F%2Fdds.mlb.com%2Fmlb_podcasts%2Fatm%2F012017_pipeline_leon.mp3

Jose De Leon is the guest on Mlb pipeline's podcast released just now!

[jimmer]

 

I figure that's what the Dodgers do, which is fine for me since we've all agreed that the Dodgers haven't made a good enough trade offer for Dozier.

 

I would expect Lavine do start signing some bullpen arms soon, though.  They've been too quiet on that front.

We haven't all agreed to that. Not only do we not know what the offers were, but we don't even agree on what would be a fair offer.  For example, some believe De Leon and Alvarez is a good/fair trade, Some think even more needs to be added in order to make it fair for the Twins side.  Some think asking for De Leon and Alvarez is more than Dozier is worth.

 

The only thing we know for sure is that if our new FO thought the trade offer was good enough, the deal would be done.

[TheLeviathan]

Right, we all agree that DeLeon by himself is not enough.

 

I think most us also agree that is not the offer on the table, it doesn't pass the smell test.

[Riverbrian]

All I know is that I've personally gone from saying and hoping that Falvey/Levine hold their ground and stay strong to now personally wanting...  

 

Falvey/Levine/Friedman/Zaidi all in the same room and the same table. I would have them all lean over the table real close together like they had to listen to something real quiet and then I would knock all 4 of their heads together while screaming FIGURE IT OUT!!! 

 

Come to an agreement that works for both sides!!! Call in 10 mediators if you have to... Quit trying to take advantage of each other's situation and help each other out.  

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Right, we all agree that DeLeon by himself is not enough.

 

I think most us also agree that is not the offer on the table, it doesn't pass the smell test.

Again, though, neither does DeLeon + Sheffield or other throwins.

 

DeLeon with a guy like Stripling is close, but still no thanks.

 

I do agree with you the Dodgers have the advantage, but I think their system is too deep and they are being too stingy with a De Leo and Stewart offer. That might get it done.

[gunnarthor]

 

Right, we all agree that DeLeon by himself is not enough.

 

I think most us also agree that is not the offer on the table, it doesn't pass the smell test.

According to most relevant sources, such as Steve Adams at mlbtraderumors, the offer is De Leon by himself or De Leon and "junk" (Adams words).  No one - aside from Dave - has suggested that the Dodgers are offering De Leon and Alvarez and national writers have suggested that the Dodgers think that De Leon and STEWART are too much to give up.  Again, ignoring Dave, the Dogers list of untouchables in a Dozier trade apparently includes Urias, Bellinger, Alvarez, Stewart, Buehler, Lux and Verdugo (according to different multiple sources).  So right now I think it's pretty fair to say that the Dodgers haven't given the Twins an offer that any of us think is fair and that the Twins are right to have moved off of the talks.

 

If you, Levi, think the Twins have been given an offer of De Leon and Calhoun, for instance, and you feel that would have been a fair offer, fine. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Looked at another way:

In order to make a Dozier trade happen today, most observers agree the Twins would require something like De Leon and Alvarez.

 

I will guess the Twins have even backed off that.

 

I am hoping/guessing there is a De Leon and Stewart offer the Dodgers will eventually accept. Maybe the Dodgers would be interested in a Duffey or Rogers in a trade like that in exchange for adding Calhoun (not likely) or Mitch White. However I could understand if the Twins don't want to part with any arms before they get a look at them, no matter how mediocre they seem.