Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins are also at a disadvantage because we don't have any great assets to pair with Dozier.  Ervin Santana is a solid arm to hold down a rotation spot, but not that desirable for a team aiming to push deep into the playoffs.  Likewise we don't have any healthy ace relievers at the moment.

 

Meanwhile, the Rays for example have Chris Archer and Alex Colome, both of whom they have previously dangled in trade.  By July, if their own chances don't look very good (not unlikely in the AL East), they might become the primary trade targets of the Dodgers, and a guy like Forsythe could just be supplemental piece (like Josh Reddick in the Rich Hill deal last year).  The Dodgers certainly have the top prospects to pull off such a blockbuster if they need to -- but maybe not so easily if they drop a couple on just Dozier right now.

[nicksaviking]

 

In my way of thinking... that just seems way to cavalier for my tastes.

 

A GM shouldn't be thinking... we are a playoff team anyway... that's dangerous. I think you plug your holes and then address the unplanned holes at the deadline. 

 

 

Right, but a GM in that position could instead just add an aging Rondell White and a Tony Bautista to put them over the hump.

 

No need to go crazy or anything with a better player like Dozier when White and Bautista will do.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You also don't identify a need in April and wildly overpay for it to benefit you in October.  They know Chase Utley is a phone call away if they need him.  They don't have to give in to the Twins, they could horde their chips for later and patch if they need to.  

 

That's because we all know that losses in April don't matter as much

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Right, but a GM in that position could instead just add an aging Rondell White and a Tony Bautista to put them over the hump.

 

No need to go crazy or anything with a better player like Dozier when White and Bautista will do.

Well, the Twins of that era almost certainly never projected as close to the best team in baseball (even coming off 96 wins in 2006, our starting pitching was in shambles for 2007 with Liriano hurt and Radke finished).  They had less of a cushion to wait out the market than the 2017 Dodgers likely have.

 

And if TR or Bill Smith had signed White and Batista in the offseason, but then shown an ability and willingness to close deals like Cliff Lee at the deadline, I think it could have worked out better.  The Dodgers have picked up guys like Rich Hill, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hanley Ramirez midseason in recent years.

 

I think it's virtually 100% guaranteed that barring injury, Enrique Hernandez and Chase Utley will not be the Dodgers starting 2B on August 1st, and quite possibly earlier.  The only question is, do they act now or later, and given the rest of their roster and the 2B market, I think you can make a prudent argument to wait a bit longer.

[drjim]

 

BA has tremendous scouting sources, but they're still sourced stuff.

 

Law is, for better or worse, doing a lot of the work himself, and he relies on what he has seen, so if he hasn't seen a guy, he often will underrate him (or if he saw him in a bad time), but I will give him all the credit for being one of the few guys actually doing the scouting in person, both at the minor league level and collegiate level (even high school level pre-draft).

 

Longenhagen was Law's protege at ESPN before going to Fangraphs, and in my mind, he's got the best eye in the business. He's swamped as really the only guy, however.

 

I like what MLB puts out, but I find that I get as much or more from the Road to the Show podcast as the Pipeline podcast as far as actually learning anything about players. Callis/Manuel are often regurgitating what sources have told them, and they can get a strong bias when they get hooked in tight with a source in one org because that team's guys get huge mention in overall lists. Callis and the Yankees has always been that issue.

 

BP is a mixed bag due to their solid scouting staff but often using writers who ignore the scouts on the ground who have actually seen the players and just going by numbers rather than finding out more info.

 

2080 has really done a solid job of establishing themselves as well.

 

Best way about all of it - take a dash of everything and season your prospect pasta. Too much of any one will spoil it.

 

This is good stuff. I haven't checked out 2080 before.

 

I think the difference for me relative to you is that I'm not especially concerned how they get the information, I'm concerned with the output. I also need decent information for all teams and some context across systems, I don't need to drill down especially deep on one team. For the Twins, for example, I would read the work here and not even really bother with the work of these 5 aside from cross system comparisons. I just can't pull that off with all 30 teams.

 

I agree with your final sentence. It is about using as many as you can and gleaning what you need. Relying on any one list is a mistake and will result in blind spots.

[nicksaviking]

 

The only question is, do they act now or later, and given the rest of their roster and the 2B market, I think you can make a prudent argument to wait a bit longer.

 

I think if they wait much past March 31st, they're going to have fans and a clubhouse full of guys asking the front office what the hell they're doing and why they didn't improve the club from what it was last year.

 

It was pretty much an annual right of spring for us Twins fans (and some less than thrilled players) who for about a decade had a team that seemed to have no end of youthful talent but too much fence straddling from management to use it to fill the remaining holes that were keeping the team from truly being elite.

[gunnarthor]

I had never heard of 2080 before.  Their write up on the Twins is encouraging (http://2080baseball.com/2016/12/2017-orgrev-min/)  Anyone know anything about the authors?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think if they wait much past March 31st, they're going to have fans and a clubhouse full of guys asking the front office what the hell they're doing and why they didn't improve the club from what it was last year.

 

It was pretty much an annual right of spring for us Twins fans (and some less than thrilled players) who for about a decade had a team that seemed to have no end of youthful talent but too much fence straddling from management to use it to fill the remaining holes that were keeping the team from truly being elite.

 

I think your post falls apart at the point whre you describe the Dodgers as "fence straddling" akin to the 2000s Twins teams.

 

That's just so far off base it's hard to take the rest of your point seriously.

[markos]

 

I had never heard of 2080 before.  Their write up on the Twins is encouraging (http://2080baseball.com/2016/12/2017-orgrev-min/)  Anyone know anything about the authors?

IIRC, the site was primarily founded by a cadre of BP guys (Joe Hamrahi, Nick Faleris, Tucker Blair and Mauricio Rubio).

[gunnarthor]

From Steve Adama mlbtraderumors chat today

 

Lou
3:24 Would the Dodgers be willing to include another solid prospect in a Dozier/DeLeon swap if the Twins took on Kazmir or McCarthy?

Steve Adams
3:25 I've wondered that as well. Frankly, I don't think the Twins should have to eat some onerous contract in order to get two good prospects for Dozier at $15MM over the next two seasons. They probably don't, either. It's quite possible the Dodgers have floated that idea, and the Twins have responded by saying they'd want a third solid prospect in order to facilitate that kind of salary dump. (Which, again, I wouldn't find unreasonable on their end.)

 

Brian Dozier
3:35 what are the odds I start the season with Minnesota? Are the dodgers really the only team I (realistically) will be traded to?
Steve Adams
3:36 As I always say, I don't like putting "odds" on moves as there's no real science behind that on my end. I'd expect him to open the year in a Twins jersey at this point, so greater than 50 percent, in my view.

[biggentleben]

 

IIRC, the site was primarily founded by a cadre of BP guys (Joe Hamrahi, Nick Faleris, Tucker Blair and Mauricio Rubio).

 

They really pushed it forward, but it was in place before that, a scouting offshoot of the Perfect Game program. Rubio made the place into what it is today with his eye for scouting talent, which is what got him picked up by the Cardinals for a supervisory job straight out of the gate rather than a "boots on the ground" sort of scouting position.

 

Their podcast was one of the best in the business before Rubio left to return to BP before then being hired by the Cardinals. Interestingly, he's a huge Cubs fan, so moving to the Cards will be interesting for him.

[biggentleben]

 

I had never heard of 2080 before.  Their write up on the Twins is encouraging (http://2080baseball.com/2016/12/2017-orgrev-min/)  Anyone know anything about the authors?

 

DeFreitas was a scout for the Indians and Yankees for a decade or so. He has a rep for being very keen on bats and able to spot them well. Nick is a guy who worked as an independent scout for a number of years as a "side job" while being a full time lawyer.

[jimmer]

Because the Dozier to Dodgers trade debate rages on, here is Dave Cameron taalking about finding a 2B for the Dodgers:

 

'I could potentially see a Forsythe deal working if the Dodgers were floating some pieces that could help Tampa Bay maintain the status quo and give them some long-term value, but Forsythe isn’t good enough to extract Jose De Leon, and I’m not sure the Rays really need more pitching depth.'

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-find-the-dodgers-a-second-baseman/

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I wouldn't move Kepler, but I would move someone like Gonsalves (if that helps).

Kepler is a great asset right now. I would need much more than De Leon to move him for instance.

There's no way I'd trade Gonsalves - not now, not after the year he just had. I think the reason Some would be willing to trade De Leon or Berrios is because neither has truly proven themselves in the major leagues.  If we trade Dozier for an established MLB pitcher, that's one thing. But to trade him for De Leon alone – (hey that rhymes) who has not yet proven his value in the bigs is a mistake. We need to mitigate risk here, and get more than one decent prospect for Dozier. But it doesn't sound like the Dodgers are willing to 'play ball'. So we move on.

[Riverbrian]

 

Sure, they have a need at 2B.  But they have to be forward-thinking, not only about their own need but the available options.

 

As much as we love our Twins, Dozier is likely to still be on the market come July for no more than the Twins are demanding for him now.  No one else appears poised to swoop in and pay that price, and the Twins don't have great chances of contending themselves either.

 

And while the Dodgers' 95 win projection at Fangraphs doesn't guarantee them anything, it does suggest they have a bit of a cushion to wait this out further and take advantage of the above factors.

 

Rumors coming out now that the Dodgers are talking with the Tigers again.

 

They were discussing Bellinger to the Tigers in November. 

 

Looks like the Dodgers don't want to test that cushion. 

 

 

[DaveW]

Twitter is so toxic

[jimmer]

They aren't trading Bellinger.  Not for Kinsler, not for Dozier.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Not to get into semantics, which is rarely productive, but I disagree. The fact that there wasn't a match has no real bearing on whether, objectively, the Dodgers offered less than fair value. The low-balling isn't some kind of slight to the Twins, but instead reflects the Dodgers' assessment of how much they were willing to give up.

 

There's nothing wrong with making below-market offers, particularly when you know there's limited interest among other parties. That's the whole reason I like eBay.

in this case the market is one buyer and one seller so definitionally if there is no deal, one side is asking too much or the other side is offering too little

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There's no way I'd trade Gonsalves - not now, not after the year he just had. I think the reason Some would be willing to trade De Leon or Berrios is because neither has truly proven themselves in the major leagues. If we trade Dozier for an established MLB pitcher, that's one thing. But to trade him for De Leon alone – (hey that rhymes) who has not yet proven his value in the bigs is a mistake. We need to mitigate risk here, and get more than one decent prospect for Dozier. But it doesn't sound like the Dodgers are willing to 'play ball'. So we move on.

that and if you need more young close to MLB pitching you don't trade away young close to MLB pitching, you trade veterans

[Riverbrian]

 

There's no way I'd trade Gonsalves - not now, not after the year he just had. I think the reason Some would be willing to trade De Leon or Berrios is because neither has truly proven themselves in the major leagues.  If we trade Dozier for an established MLB pitcher, that's one thing. But to trade him for De Leon alone – (hey that rhymes) who has not yet proven his value in the bigs is a mistake. We need to mitigate risk here, and get more than one decent prospect for Dozier. But it doesn't sound like the Dodgers are willing to 'play ball'. So we move on.

 

I don't think Drjim would trade Gonsalves either. He was saying what he would trade Gonsalves if the situation was reversed and the Twins had the Dodgers major league roster and needed Dozier. 

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think Drjim would trade Gonsalves either. He was saying what he would trade Gonsalves if the situation was reversed and the Twins had the Dodgers major league roster and needed Dozier.

 

Except that isn't equivalent. It's more like Berrios circa spring training last year.

 

And then to include more because the bizarro-Dodger fans are insulted by said offer.

[drjim]

Except that isn't equivalent. It's more like Berrios circa spring training last year.

 

And then to include more because the bizarro-Dodger fans are insulted by said offer.

Or realizing Berrios obviously wouldn't be enough.

[drjim]

I don't think Drjim would trade Gonsalves either. He was saying what he would trade Gonsalves if the situation was reversed and the Twins had the Dodgers major league roster and needed Dozier.

Correct. That was a response to a hypothetical.

[NCtwinsfan]

I was originally quite excited by the idea of getting a few of the Dodgers top names, but the more I read about the success rate of 'prospects', the less thrilled I am, especially after this article:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77004/odds-are-selling-the-farm-is-worth-the-risk

 

While the Eaton trade certainly seems lopsided - the fact that he makes a somewhat defensible case for Washington - makes the Dozier for JDL+whatever seem even less defensible. The list of "top" prospects over the years that have been traded, versus those that have been kept really makes it seem like teams are pretty good at evaluating their own talent. If a team is willing to trade a prospect or not might be quite telling - and the Dodgers seem quite willing to trade JDL...

 

And I don't need to be reminded that Dozier's value will never be higher, he'll be gone in two years, we need ML ready pitching etc, etc. Of course that is all true. But I wonder what teams out there are really willing to trade prospects they actually believe will be impact players. Do I think that should that stop us from making a trade? Absolutely not. But it stinks to be in the position of a big time losing team banking on prospects another team is willing to trade away.

 

All that is to say, I am probably not excited about this trade anymore. Not sure if I was coherent.

[jimmer]

The Eaton trade didn't really seem lopsided to me. A VERY good player with 5 years of control is VERY valuable.

 

And just because an organization is willing to trade a prospect doesn't mean there is something wrong with them.  Dodgers know it takes real talent to get Dozier and De Leon is well thought of across prospect ratings.  Like Cameron said, he doubts Dodgers trade De Leon for Forsythe because that's too me for a 2B like Forsythe.

[curt1965]

Here's another angle that I have been wondering about. Unfortunately, it looks like I will be unable to make it to the Twins Diamonds Awards banquet and Twins Fest that is coming up in a couple of weeks. The reason I bring that up is that Dozier is getting like 15 awards at the Awards banquet, and it will be very interesting to see how that plays out depending on Dozier's status. The awards are, as Joe Biden says, are a big F- ing deal and one of the ways the Twins promote the upcoming season. I can't imagine how uncomfortable it would be for both parties if Dozier is still a Twin. This would add to the general unrest of the fans who are looking at a team that is basically bringing back the same cast of characters, less one catcher, that lost 103 games last year, and was pretty much an embarrassment to the state of Minnesota.

[beckmt]

 

Here's another angle that I have been wondering about. Unfortunately, it looks like I will be unable to make it to the Twins Diamonds Awards banquet and Twins Fest that is coming up in a couple of weeks. The reason I bring that up is that Dozier is getting like 15 awards at the Awards banquet, and it will be very interesting to see how that plays out depending on Dozier's status. The awards are, as Joe Biden says, are a big F- ing deal and one of the ways the Twins promote the upcoming season. I can't imagine how uncomfortable it would be for both parties if Dozier is still a Twin. This would add to the general unrest of the fans who are looking at a team that is basically bringing back the same cast of characters, less one catcher, that lost 103 games last year, and was pretty much an embarrassment to the state of Minnesota.

 

Metrics were much kinder to the Twins, as it looks like we underperformed our stats by a fair amount.  That does not say much for Molitor as a manager.  If you look at our base as a low to mid 90 loss team, changes + experience would probably push us to the 75 - 80 win area. 

Dodgers are playing a game of chicken, looking for one of the three teams to fold and give them what they want for the lowest possible cost.  One reason nothing is happening and the Twins still are in the forefront is that both the Tigers and Rays want Bellinger to headline the deal.  That is a nonstarter for the Dodgers.

It may well take mid to late spring training for this to resolve.  Injuries could change the landscape.  So could another team(Brewers for one) to put together another multi player deal the Dodgers would like.

Braun and Puig  would be the headliners and Gennett would just be one of the players in the deal.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, the Knoblauch trade didn't come until February 6. And the Johan Santana deal was on Feb. 2.

 

Plus those came 10 years apart in 1998 and 2008... maybe the Twins will wait until February 2018 for continued transactional symmetry.

[Riverbrian]

 

I was originally quite excited by the idea of getting a few of the Dodgers top names, but the more I read about the success rate of 'prospects', the less thrilled I am, especially after this article:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77004/odds-are-selling-the-farm-is-worth-the-risk

 

While the Eaton trade certainly seems lopsided - the fact that he makes a somewhat defensible case for Washington - makes the Dozier for JDL+whatever seem even less defensible. The list of "top" prospects over the years that have been traded, versus those that have been kept really makes it seem like teams are pretty good at evaluating their own talent. If a team is willing to trade a prospect or not might be quite telling - and the Dodgers seem quite willing to trade JDL...

 

And I don't need to be reminded that Dozier's value will never be higher, he'll be gone in two years, we need ML ready pitching etc, etc. Of course that is all true. But I wonder what teams out there are really willing to trade prospects they actually believe will be impact players. Do I think that should that stop us from making a trade? Absolutely not. But it stinks to be in the position of a big time losing team banking on prospects another team is willing to trade away.

 

All that is to say, I am probably not excited about this trade anymore. Not sure if I was coherent.

 

Perfectly Coherent and I agree.

 

I'd rather be in the position of trading prospects than needing to acquire them.  

 

To me... it kind of feels like... you can't have this guy because he's gonna be a superstar and you can't have this guy because he's gonna be amazing... but... you can... have,,, this guy... He might work out for you. 

 

On Adam Eaton... The Nationals have won the trade until any of those 3 pitchers do something decent in the majors. 

[NCtwinsfan]

 

Perfectly Coherent and I agree.

 

I'd rather be in the position of trading prospects than needing to acquire them.  

 

To me... it kind of feels like... you can't have this guy because he's gonna be a superstar and you can't have this guy because he's gonna be amazing... but... you can... have,,, this guy... He might work out for you. 

 

On Adam Eaton... The Nationals have won the trade until any of those 3 pitchers do something decent in the majors. 

Yes, this is exactly how I feel, you just put it much more succinctly