Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[DodgerFan1234]

 

It's damn well about time!  And from your Twitter report, it was the Dodgers that pinged the Twins.  I like that even more!

 

My source is better than Dave's.  I have an actual video copy of the Dodgers pinging the Twins.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwlYo8EYTWI

 

 

 

 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

He did, but HECK NO! How many dead guys can say they averaged 5WAR the last 4 years!?!

Indeed, i stand corrected.

 

A dead guy with a live bat has value!

[nater79a]

 

My source is better than Dave's.  I have an actual video copy of the Dodgers pinging the Twins.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwlYo8EYTWI

 

Found the source within the Dodgers who made the ping request:

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Depends how long you've been gone.

Have you been gone all of 2016? Everybody died. Literally...Everybody

 

I've still been wrestling with how we got to November with a choice of Donald or Hillary.

 

This makes so much sense!

[DodgerFan1234]

 

Found the source within the Dodgers who made the ping request:

 

 

So the Russians are behind this Dodgers-Dozier trade?  Figures!!

[DodgerFan1234]

 

I've still been wrestling with how we got to November with a choice of Donald or Hillary.

 

This makes so much sense!

That's what happens when a country collectively practices "Stupid is as Stupid does"

 

Back to Dozier.  As a Dodger fan, I find it natural that the teams would circle back.  Who knows, the reported progress at the winter meetings may have been the 3rd time the teams circled back.  Personally, I couldn't care less if its Dozier or Kindler/Foresythe/Villar/Utley etc.  It is all a trade-off.  I (again, personal opinion) would be just as upset giving up Alvarez as I would the Dodgers giving Utley $20MM next year.  It's not worth it to me.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

 

My source is better than Dave's.  I have an actual video copy of the Dodgers pinging the Twins.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwlYo8EYTWI

 

Falvey's response:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vwHLMs04XA

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

So...

What have i missed?

The Coochie Coochie Girl!

http://media.sdreader.com/img/photos/2013/07/18/97631_CHARO_122_137lo_t670.JPG?b3f6a5d7692ccc373d56e40cf708e3fa67d9af9d

[drjim]

FWIW, mlb.com has De Leon listed as the #8 RHP prospect in baseball. Alvarez is not on the top 10, but did get mention in the "Next Up" section.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213616014/2017-top-10-right-handed-pitching-prospects/?topicid=151437456

 

Of other note is that the Whiteys have acquired the #3, #4, and #10 on the list this offseason so far (and may get #5 if they move Quintana).

[jimmer]

Mlb.com heavily favors prospects close to the majors/seen a bit of the majors.

[drjim]

 

Mlb.com heavily favors prospects close to the majors/seen a bit of the majors.

 

Agreed. I personally endorse the bias, especially with pitchers.

 

I think mlb.com is the most boring list, but also the best of the main 5 I look at (mlb, BA, Law, Sickels, Fangraphs).

[jimmer]

Agreed. I personally endorse the bias, especially with pitchers.

 

I think mlb.com is the most boring list, but also the best of the main 5 I look at (mlb, BA, Law, Sickels, Fangraphs).

I dont really bother much with MLB dot coms rankings. I prefer to just look at who the best propsects are, myself. To each their own. I look at it but give it the least amount of consideration.

[gunnarthor]

 

FWIW, mlb.com has De Leon listed as the #8 RHP prospect in baseball. Alvarez is not on the top 10, but did get mention in the "Next Up" section.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213616014/2017-top-10-right-handed-pitching-prospects/?topicid=151437456

 

Of other note is that the Whiteys have acquired the #3, #4, and #10 on the list this offseason so far (and may get #5 if they move Quintana).

Good link.  I really dislike how mlbpipeline drags this out over two weeks (and more, for the team top 20 lists).  But I think Callis/Mayo are the best of the prospect gurus we get to read about.

 

As to De Leon specifically, I think this is close to where he was on their mid-season updated list which probably puts him in around #20ish overall, I'd imagine.

 

(Looks like they had him #7 among RHP and #33 overall in their last list)

[drjim]

 

I dont really bother much with MLB dot coms rankings. I prefer to just look at who the best propsects are, myself. To each their own. I look at it but give it the least amount of consideration.

 

Mlb.com strikes me as a basic aggregator. Boring, conservative, consensus.

 

BA has the more depth and information, especially with lower ranked prospects. I think their flaw is they let personal cheeseballs get too much attention. Probably too much emphasis on tools as well.

 

Law is good, but doesn't go all that deep in systems, and (for better or worse) he gets locked into an analysis and won't move from it.

 

Sickels is quirky with some interesting nuggets, and I think he can unearth some people that slip through the other lists. He is especially good with pitchers.

 

Fangraphs will have statistical finds that are missed by other lists, but I think their flaw is they elevate certain prospect profiles that statistically seems strong but are not actually good prospects (if that makes sense).

 

This is a side conversation from Dozier, but I've been cranking through lists the last several days for my dynasty league. Doing some comparisons to previous years lists.

[gunnarthor]

 

Mlb.com strikes me as a basic aggregator. Boring, conservative, consensus.

 

BA has the more depth and information, especially with lower ranked prospects. I think their flaw is they let personal cheeseballs get too much attention.

 

Law is good, but doesn't go all that deep in systems, and (for better or worse) he gets locked into an analysis and won't move from it.

 

Sickels is quirky with some interesting nuggets, and I think he can unearth some people that slip through the other lists. He is especially good with pitchers.

 

Fangraphs will have statistical finds that are missed by other lists, but I think their flaw is they elevate certain prospect profiles that statistically seems strong but are not actually good prospects (if that makes sense).

 

This is a side conversation from Dozier, but I've been cranking through lists the last several days for my dynasty league. Doing some comparisons to previous years lists.

I agree, more or less, with most of this.  I think Klaw seems the least "knowledgeable" of all of them and more reliant on his scouting sources but he's still good.  I used to really like BP but the guys I followed there ended up getting hired by pro teams.  

 

I think BA took a big hit when Callis left.  Manual is still good but they haven't recovered.  Mayo is really underrated by fans - he's always been plugged in pretty well on how the industry views things.  He and Callis together are great.  McDaniel at fangraphs was pretty good but he works for Atlanta now.  Not sure how I feel about the new guys, they need more time and a longer track record but generally I think fangraphs has been late to the prospect thing and have struggled to keep up.  Sickels is pretty unique.  I like him but his results can be really out of whack at times.  And he's much more open to calling for sleepers and unknowns than most.  

 

Looking at at consensus of all of them usually makes the most sense.

[markos]

 

McDaniel at fangraphs was pretty good but he works for Atlanta now.  Not sure how I feel about the new guys, they need more time and a longer track record but generally I think fangraphs has been late to the prospect thing and have struggled to keep up. 

Yeah, the Fangraphs guys (much like BP) have really struggled to keep guys there for more than a couple years. 

[markos]

 

Fangraphs will have statistical finds that are missed by other lists, but I think their flaw is they elevate certain prospect profiles that statistically seems strong but are not actually good prospects (if that makes sense).

Chris Mitchell's KATOH projections on Fangraphs add a unique perspective on these prospect rankings that's been missing. BP occasionally will put out list with their best PECOTA projections for prospects, but it isn't quite the same. I like it a lot. But that seems very different from the work that McDaniel, Farnsworth and now Longenhagen have been doing. Their lists seems much more scouting based.

[CiabanItReal]

 

The Rays rotation is decent but hardly deserving of accolades. Archer looked mortal in 2016 and they have already dealt Moore and Smyly. In their top 5, they are counting on Alex Cobb coming back after basically missing two seasons, and he is a free agent after 2017. Plus Matt Andriese who looks more like a swingman.

They also have a bunch of controlled infielders too: Longoria, Brad Miller, and Matt Duffy in MLB, and top prospect Adames ticketed for AAA. Not to mention former prospects Nick Franklin and Tim Beckham lurking (both topped 100 OPS+ in ~200 MLB PA last season).

I could absolutely see that team being willing to move Forsythe for a SP prospect like De Leon, or perhaps even less than that. (Given their financials, they'd also benefit more than most clubs from getting Forsythe's salary off the books.)

What they could really use is OF and help at 1st/DH which is something the dodgers could provide.

A trade centered around Stewart, Verdugo and Calhoun makes sense for both sides. That's 2 near ready top 100 prospects at positions of need, and a starter for their rotation or a hard throwing reliever for their major league roster.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Because they know they are a playoff team regardless of who they march out there.  So why overpay in April?  Save your assets and make a mid-season splash when your needs are more clear.

This seems... questionable. The Dodgers had the fewest wins of any division champ in 2016 and won the NL West by only four games. They've done nothing to meaningfully improve their roster this offseason and instead have only kept it intact. I'd say their needs are already pretty clear. Their offense is utterly mediocre.

[biggentleben]

 

Good link.  I really dislike how mlbpipeline drags this out over two weeks (and more, for the team top 20 lists).  But I think Callis/Mayo are the best of the prospect gurus we get to read about.

 

As to De Leon specifically, I think this is close to where he was on their mid-season updated list which probably puts him in around #20ish overall, I'd imagine.

 

(Looks like they had him #7 among RHP and #33 overall in their last list)

 

I'll debate that. To use our incoming commander-in-chief, "they have the best words". It has become quite evident to me that they are sourced a lot of their information, and not always are those sources accurate.

 

Anyone having Zack Bird still on the Braves top 30 at midseason is obviously reading very different sources than anyone inside the team or anyone who has watched him pitch in the last two seasons.

 

I truly respect their work, don't get me wrong, but like many guys who hit the top end of the profession, their job is more reflecting the work done under them now than it is being out and doing the scouting themselves anymore, and that is showing in their work to my eyes and ears.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

This seems... questionable. The Dodgers had the fewest wins of any division champ in 2016 and won the NL West by only four games. They've done nothing to meaningfully improve their roster this offseason and instead have only kept it intact. I'd say their needs are already pretty clear. Their offense is utterly mediocre.

To be fair they did play the last two series of the season like it was spring training.  They are also counting on the maturation of young guys like Seager, Pederson, Urias, etc. and getting a lot more starts out of Kershaw, Hill, and Urias than they did last year.  The offense was excellent against righties and putrid against lefties last year.

[biggentleben]

BA has tremendous scouting sources, but they're still sourced stuff.

 

Law is, for better or worse, doing a lot of the work himself, and he relies on what he has seen, so if he hasn't seen a guy, he often will underrate him (or if he saw him in a bad time), but I will give him all the credit for being one of the few guys actually doing the scouting in person, both at the minor league level and collegiate level (even high school level pre-draft).

 

Longenhagen was Law's protege at ESPN before going to Fangraphs, and in my mind, he's got the best eye in the business. He's swamped as really the only guy, however.

 

I like what MLB puts out, but I find that I get as much or more from the Road to the Show podcast as the Pipeline podcast as far as actually learning anything about players. Callis/Manuel are often regurgitating what sources have told them, and they can get a strong bias when they get hooked in tight with a source in one org because that team's guys get huge mention in overall lists. Callis and the Yankees has always been that issue.

 

BP is a mixed bag due to their solid scouting staff but often using writers who ignore the scouts on the ground who have actually seen the players and just going by numbers rather than finding out more info.

 

2080 has really done a solid job of establishing themselves as well.

 

Best way about all of it - take a dash of everything and season your prospect pasta. Too much of any one will spoil it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What they could really use is OF and help at 1st/DH which is something the dodgers could provide.

A trade centered around Stewart, Verdugo and Calhoun makes sense for both sides. That's 2 near ready top 100 prospects at positions of need, and a starter for their rotation or a hard throwing reliever for their major league roster.

 

That trade would likely get the Dozier too... or at least in the ball park. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This seems... questionable. The Dodgers had the fewest wins of any division champ in 2016 and won the NL West by only four games. They've done nothing to meaningfully improve their roster this offseason and instead have only kept it intact. I'd say their needs are already pretty clear. Their offense is utterly mediocre.

The Dodgers clinched their division with 6 games to go -- they led by 8 games at that point.  Their playoff seeding was virtually guaranteed with 3 games to go too.  How much should they care that they got swept after that?

 

Does re-signing Rich Hill not register as any kind of meaningful improvement?  He only made 6 regular season starts for the Dodgers in 2016.  He's still a bit of a wild card, but having him under contract for a full season should count for something.

 

Also, Dodgers non-pitchers were 4th in the NL, and 7th in MLB, in wRC+ last season.  It's not so much that their whole offense was "utterly mediocre" but their pitchers hitting was positively dreadful, easily the worst of any NL contending team.

 

And despite your assertions, Fangraphs still has the Dodgers projected at the highest win total in MLB for 2017, and a higher projected lead over 2nd place than several other division winners.  (And while the Giants are the best projected 2nd place team in MLB, the 3-5 spots in the NL West are some of MLB's projected worst, which limits their potential divisional competition.)

 

No one is saying that anything is guaranteed or that they don't have areas where they can improve, of course, but they are in roughly as good of a preseason position as any MLB team could reasonably be.

[Riverbrian]

 

The Rays rotation is decent but hardly deserving of accolades. Archer looked mortal in 2016 and they have already dealt Moore and Smyly. In their top 5, they are counting on Alex Cobb coming back after basically missing two seasons, and he is a free agent after 2017. Plus Matt Andriese who looks more like a swingman.

They also have a bunch of controlled infielders too: Longoria, Brad Miller, and Matt Duffy in MLB, and top prospect Adames ticketed for AAA. Not to mention former prospects Nick Franklin and Tim Beckham lurking (both topped 100 OPS+ in ~200 MLB PA last season).

I could absolutely see that team being willing to move Forsythe for a SP prospect like De Leon, or perhaps even less than that. (Given their financials, they'd also benefit more than most clubs from getting Forsythe's salary off the books.)

 

I can see what you are saying. I think you are being a little rough on the rotation because It looks pretty good to me.

 

DeLeon as a depth arm wouldn't be a bad idea but I think if they have concerns about their depth... they could have hung on to Smyly. 

 

However... If Forsythe could be acquired for less than DeLeon... Wouldn't that deal be done already? 

 

If the Dodgers are willing to give up DeLeon for Dozier... I'd have to assume that if the Rays would take Stewart for Forsythe... The Dodgers would have had a pen in hand ready for signatures. 

 

This leads me back to... I don't think Forsythe is on the Market and there has to be mark up to convince someone to sell what they were not planning on selling. 

 

Who knows... Maybe the Smyly trade was clearing room for a DeLeon acquisition... Who knows. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The offense was excellent against righties and putrid against lefties last year.

Yes, and while Dozier would certainly help in this department, even that need seems somewhat overstated -- RHB Justin Turner probably won't post another 77 wRC+ vs LHP, and one of their best hitters by rate vs LHP (Puig) is expected to get more playing time in 2017.

[Riverbrian]

 

Because they know they are a playoff team regardless of who they march out there.  So why overpay in April?  Save your assets and make a mid-season splash when your needs are more clear.

 

In my way of thinking... that just seems way to cavalier for my tastes.

 

A GM shouldn't be thinking... we are a playoff team anyway... that's dangerous. I think you plug your holes and then address the unplanned holes at the deadline. 

 

You could be right but the 2B need looks pretty clear to me. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I can see what you are saying. I think you are being a little rough on the rotation because It looks pretty good to me.

 

DeLeon as a depth arm wouldn't be a bad idea but I think if they have concerns about their depth... they could have hung on to Smyly. 

 

However... If Forsythe could be acquired for less than DeLeon... Wouldn't that deal be done already? 

 

If the Dodgers are willing to give up DeLeon for Dozier... I'd have to assume that if the Rays would take Stewart for Forsythe... The Dodgers would have had a pen in hand ready for signatures. 

 

This leads me back to... I don't think Forsythe is on the Market and there has to be mark up to convince someone to sell what they were not planning on selling. 

 

Who knows... Maybe the Smyly trade was clearing room for a DeLeon acquisition... Who knows. 

Smyly had a cost factor.  He's probably due ~$15 mil over the next two seasons, which is big money for the Rays.

 

With the same ~$15 mil over two seasons owed him, and cheaper / longer controlled infield assets around him, Forsythe is probably on the market too.  But he has the same market problem as Dozier, so there's no real urgency for the Dodgers to decide.  Maybe the Dodgers still prefer Dozier at a higher cost, just not as high of a cost as the Twins are demanding right now.

[TheLeviathan]

 

In my way of thinking... that just seems way to cavalier for my tastes.

 

A GM shouldn't be thinking... we are a playoff team anyway... that's dangerous. I think you plug your holes and then address the unplanned holes at the deadline. 

 

You could be right but the 2B need looks pretty clear to me. 

 

You also don't identify a need in April and wildly overpay for it to benefit you in October.  They know Chase Utley is a phone call away if they need him.  They don't have to give in to the Twins, they could horde their chips for later and patch if they need to.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In my way of thinking... that just seems way to cavalier for my tastes.

 

A GM shouldn't be thinking... we are a playoff team anyway... that's dangerous. I think you plug your holes and then address the unplanned holes at the deadline. 

 

You could be right but the 2B need looks pretty clear to me. 

Sure, they have a need at 2B.  But they have to be forward-thinking, not only about their own need but the available options.

 

As much as we love our Twins, Dozier is likely to still be on the market come July for no more than the Twins are demanding for him now.  No one else appears poised to swoop in and pay that price, and the Twins don't have great chances of contending themselves either.

 

And while the Dodgers' 95 win projection at Fangraphs doesn't guarantee them anything, it does suggest they have a bit of a cushion to wait this out further and take advantage of the above factors.