Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[gunnarthor]

 

Seems like some of you are talking about JDL like he's had a chronic condition.  He's had one sore shoulder after his 1st start last season which followed being shut down by an ankle injury.  The Dodgers babied him after the soreness because there was no need to rush him.  It's not like he's had injuries every season.  

Maybe, maybe not.  But the most innings he's managed in a season is 114 and that was two years ago.

 

That's not a great sign. 

[TyTY23]

 

Maybe, maybe not.  But the most innings he's managed in a season is 114 and that was two years ago.

 

That's not a great sign. 

Look up all the Dodgers top pitching prospects. The Dodgers tend to do that to them: limit their innings. 

[gunnarthor]

For whatever it's worth, Nick Cafardo of the Globe thinks Dozier stays.

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/31/red-sox-may-regret-passing-jose-bautista/YysiZpYu4A46kCafHIR0lM/story.html

[DaveW]

Yeah I could see dozier staying if the Dodgers refuse to give up anything relevant for the third piece.

[Riverbrian]

 

For whatever it's worth, Nick Cafardo of the Globe thinks Dozier stays.

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/31/red-sox-may-regret-passing-jose-bautista/YysiZpYu4A46kCafHIR0lM/story.html

 

With absolutely no credible information to go on... My Spidey Sense puts the odds at

 

Staying with the Twins 50%

Traded to any of the other 29 teams 29%

Traded to the Dodgers 16%

Dozier becomes the next great Mississippi Blues Singer 5% 

 

[jorgenswest]

There needs to be a relevant second prospect first. Heyman on the 21st and Neal this week independently reported that there has to be a prospect beyond De Leon.

 

My heart is with your report Dave, but I don't see the Twins passing that one up. If the Twins had anything to do with the Neal report, they made it known they are looking for an additional prospect beyond De Leon. Why put that out if they already have that deal on the table?

 

Heyman

 

"It is known that the Dodgers hold two other top pitching prospects — Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez — in extremely high regard, and it’s quite likely that L.A. wouldn’t be willing to deal either of those two prospects along with De Leon."

 

Neal

 

"The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked."

[TyTY23]

 

There needs to be a relevant second prospect first. Heyman on the 21st and Neal this week independently reported that there has to be a prospect beyond De Leon.

My heart is with your report Dave, but I don't see the Twins passing that one up. If the Twins had anything to do with the Neal report, they made it known they are looking for an additional prospect beyond De Leon. Why put that out if they already have that deal on the table?

Heyman

"It is known that the Dodgers hold two other top pitching prospects — Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez — in extremely high regard, and it’s quite likely that L.A. wouldn’t be willing to deal either of those two prospects along with De Leon."

Neal

"The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked."

Yeah, there is no way Alvarez was ever included. That deal would have been done already. 

[jorgenswest]

 

Yeah, there is no way Alvarez was ever included. That deal would have been done already. 

 

I am hoping he was or will be included. Time will tell.

[AZTwin]

I am hoping he was or will be included. Time will tell.

I really can't see a deal getting done without him. Dodgers would have to give up too much otherwise. For example if Alvarez wasn't included my minimum package would probably be del Leon, Stewart, lux, Ruiz, and then a guy like Sheffield

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'm hoping for De Leon, Stewart and another prospect by this time next week

[TyTY23]

 

I really can't see a deal getting done without him. Dodgers would have to give up too much otherwise. For example if Alvarez wasn't included my minimum package would probably be del Leon, Stewart, lux, Ruiz, and then a guy like Sheffield

Yeah, this is way too much for a Dozier: Three top pitching prospects, 1st rounder, and a high ceiling highly regarded prospect in a highly rated farm system.  

[AZTwin]

Yeah, this is way too much for a Dozier: Three top pitching prospects, 1st rounder, and a high ceiling highly regarded prospect in a highly rated farm system.

De Leon is only top pitching prospect. Stewart is rated 14 in their system and is a 4 or 5 starter. Basically a guy to log innings. Sheffield is rated 8 in their system but projected to be a reliever and medical issues. Lux is good but over 60% shot he never sees the big leagues. Ruiz is a lottery ticket who isn't really touted and hasn't really proved anything but

[nytwinsfan]

 

Yeah, there is no way Alvarez was ever included. That deal would have been done already. 

 

I don't understand this logic. Why? So when you negotiate in your life (in your job or in a transaction with a business) and someone makes a good offer to you, do you always take it right away? If so, I'm glad you're not my negotiator. Unless the Dodgers indicated (explicitly or implicitly) that they are close to moving on and finding another option at 2B other than Dodgers (which there is no evidence of), then the Twins have every reason to try o get more still. They likely won't get much more, but very little risk in trying until they think the Dodgers are ready to end negotiations and trade/sign a different 2B.

 

I'm not saying DaveW is necessarily right and that Alvarez is included in an offer with DeLeon (I hope so, but it could still be a mistake/deliberate mislead by the Dodgers - I believe DaveW actually is in good faith, even if he's wrong), but just because a very good offer hasn't been accepted YET doesn't mean it can't already be on the table.

[TyTY23]

 

De Leon is only top pitching prospect. Stewart is rated 14 in their system and is a 4 or 5 starter. Basically a guy to log innings. Sheffield is rated 8 in their system but projected to be a reliever and medical issues. Lux is good but over 60% shot he never sees the big leagues. Ruiz is a lottery ticket who isn't really touted and hasn't really proved anything but

Alvarez is rated higher than JDL by many. Lux is a first rounder that has not had enough playing time to show what the Dodgers have in their hands. Same goes for Ruiz. The Dodgers are not the DiamondBacks, they don't give up on their players too soon. 

[TyTY23]

 

I don't understand this logic. Why? So when you negotiate in your life (in your job or in a transaction with a business) and someone makes a good offer to yo, do you always take it right away? If so, I'm glad you're not my negotiator. Unless the Dodgers indicated (explicitly or implicitly) that they are close to moving on and finding another option at 2B other than Dodgers (which there is no evidence of), then the Twins have every reason to think there is a chance to get more still. They likely won't get much more, but very little risk in trying until they think the Dodgers are ready to end negotiations and trade/sign a different 2B.

 

I'm not saying DaveW is necessarily right and that Alvarez is included in an offer with DeLeon (I hope so, but it could still be a mistake/deliberate mislead by the Dodgers - I believe DaveW actually is in good faith, even if he's wrong), but just because a very good offer hasn't been accepted YET doesn't mean it can't already have be on the table.

"Take it right away," Its been a month. Teams usually don't haggle over a "third piece" for a month.  

[nytwinsfan]

 

"Take it right away," Its been a month. Teams usually don't haggle over a "third piece" for a month.  

Maybe not. I don't know and I don't think we really have a good idea of how long trade talks of these magnitudes usually go on. Plus the last week has been largely holidays/vacation, so I'm not sure it really counts. Alvarez very well may not be involved, but I don't think we can say that just based on the length of the negotiations so far.

[beckmt]

 

"Take it right away," Its been a month. Teams usually don't haggle over a "third piece" for a month.  

Twins still have some power in the negotiations,  Dodgers do not have a second option that will probably work for them.  Rays need a 1B player(read Bellinger) and Tigers would take lesser prospects, but Kinsler has no trade power and wants an expensive extension  to move.  Neither of these would in my mind be palatable to the Dodgers, unless it was message sent to Twins front office from many clubs to make bad deals or not be able to deal. 

Dodgers cannot use a left handed hitting 2B, to much ability to throw lefties from the pen and force platoon changes and then back again.  It just may take more time, or the Dodgers will wait until before spring training to see if prices come down.

[sftwinsfan]

Kind of looking like this is not getting done this off-season and we'll be discussing this up until next July.  It's the right move by the Twins if as reported the Dodgers are only putting 1 key piece on the table (I realize that some say they have put 2 out there, but most reports seem to indicate only JDL at this point). If the Dodgers are struggling a bit offensively in the 1st half and a few games behind in their division I see them being much more cooperative than they're being right now.  There's certainly risk there for the Twins too, but I think the odds of Dozier having a good 1st half (which he's had 2 out of the last 3 years) are a lot higher than JDL with little to no big league experience suddenly making the Dodgers rotation and pitching like an all-star in the 1st half.   

 

The Dodgers may realize they do not have an infinite window of contention.  Kershaw and Urias are awesome guys to have in the rotation, but pitchers break down.  Back in 2006 the Twins had an elite SP in Johan Santana along with a young phenom in Francisco Liriano and a top prospect in Matt Garza right behind him in the minors.  We all know how that worked out, at some point you may want to take your shot before things slip away.  

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't understand this logic. Why? So when you negotiate in your life (in your job or in a transaction with a business) and someone makes a good offer to you, do you always take it right away? If so, I'm glad you're not my negotiator. Unless the Dodgers indicated (explicitly or implicitly) that they are close to moving on and finding another option at 2B other than Dodgers (which there is no evidence of), then the Twins have every reason to try o get more still. They likely won't get much more, but very little risk in trying until they think the Dodgers are ready to end negotiations and trade/sign a different 2B.

 

I'm not saying DaveW is necessarily right and that Alvarez is included in an offer with DeLeon (I hope so, but it could still be a mistake/deliberate mislead by the Dodgers - I believe DaveW actually is in good faith, even if he's wrong), but just because a very good offer hasn't been accepted YET doesn't mean it can't already be on the table.

That depends on how good the offer is.

I consider JDL plus Alvarez a pretty big overpay.

If I put my house on the market and someone offers 20k over asking, I'm taking it before they have a chance to sober up.

Especially if they are the only one interested.

[Willihammer]

 

That depends on how good the offer is.
I consider JDL plus Alvarez a pretty big overpay.
If I put my house on the market and someone offers 20k over asking, I'm taking it before they have a chance to sober up.
Especially if they are the only one interested.

Depends on the value of the house.

 

See Markos late entry for 2016 post of the year.

 

I'm only taking $20k over asking if the house is valued at $30k or less. If its a $250k value, you'd be well within your right to hold out for $4-500k.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Depends on the value of the house.

 

See Markos late entry for 2016 post of the year.

 

I'm only taking $20k over asking if the house is valued at $30k or less. If its a $250k value, you'd be well within your right to hold out for $4-500k.

I had not seen that Markos post. Very interesting.

[Mr. Brooks]

Depends on the value of the house.

 

See Markos late entry for 2016 post of the year.

 

I'm only taking $20k over asking if the house is valued at $30k or less. If its a $250k value, you'd be well within your right to hold out for $4-500k.

Well with only one interested buyer you aren't getting that.

 

So sure, you are within your rights, but you aren't realistically trying to sell the house.

[Willihammer]

 

Well with only one interested buyer you aren't getting that.

So sure, you are within your rights, but you aren't realistically trying to sell the house.

Fair enough. That's why I'm okay with waiting 6-12 months. If they can get $1.75 on the dollar later, versus $1.05 on the dollar now, then it could well be worth it. Even if the house has a little more wear and tear. Plus, they get to live in this awesome house a little longer.

[Mr. Brooks]

Fair enough. That's why I'm okay with waiting 6-12 months. If they can get $1.75 on the dollar later, versus $1.05 on the dollar now, then it could well be worth it. Even if the house has a little more wear and tear. Plus, they get to live in this awesome house a little longer.

Sure, but unlike the real world, the Twins have no insurance against the house burning to the ground.

 

Waiting until the deadline carries risk as well.

[Strato Guy]

Ideally for the Twins, Dozier needs to be traded. Waiting involves risks. But they can't give him away.

 

I can't see Polanco playing SS, and don't think the new regime wants him to, either. I get the feeling the Twins will be stressing Defense more this year.

[DaveW]

 

Yeah, there is no way Alvarez was ever included. That deal would have been done already. 

Well he was included and remains included in the deal.

The issue now and has remained the third player.

[DaveW]

 

Maybe not. I don't know and I don't think we really have a good idea of how long trade talks of these magnitudes usually go on. Plus the last week has been largely holidays/vacation, so I'm not sure it really counts. Alvarez very well may not be involved, but I don't think we can say that just based on the length of the negotiations so far.

Yeah the teams have been operating on a holiday schedule (more or less shut down) the past week or so, additionally there is not some huge ticking clock on a deal, things typically move slow between the Winter Meetings and the new year.

Should start hearing more updates tomorrow or so. I do think the "negotiation fatigue" could start setting in if they don't come to an agreement these next 7 days or so.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Yeah the teams have been operating on a holiday schedule (more or less shut down) the past week or so, additionally there is not some huge ticking clock on a deal, things typically move slow between the Winter Meetings and the new year.

Should start hearing more updates tomorrow or so. I do think the "negotiation fatigue" could start setting in if they don't come to an agreement these next 7 days or so.

I've gone WAY past the fatigue portion. I don't know if I am at denial yet, but I certainly want it all to end at some point here asap

[doscinco]

Jon Sickels of SBnation is posting a Dodgers top prospect list later this week.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/1/14136368/los-angeles-dodgers-organization-discussion

[Doomtints]

 

Yeah the teams have been operating on a holiday schedule (more or less shut down) the past week or so, additionally there is not some huge ticking clock on a deal

 

Seems the Twins are working and that they want this done ASAP. The clock IS ticking.