Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[jcphitman]

I'm getting tired of waiting for a deal but patience is a virtue. I don't think we need 2 MLB ready SP. The inn is full.

 

Get De Leon, Alvarez, and whatever else you can negotiate. With this for SP next year, you have...

 

Santana

Gibson

Hughes

Berrios

De Leon

May

Duffey

Santiago

Mejia

 

That's 9 options. Why do we need more? I get it if you trade Santana or Santiago or both, but that doesn't seem pretty hot right now. De Leon helps now and hopefully Alvarez helps later. Both are worth it. Get them and whatever additional fodder you can get and call it a day. If the Dodgers won't offer it, then move on with Dozier and groom what you have in the system for the future.

 

[Platoon]

I have nothing against the new Twins brass. But I would if they followed that line of thinking.

 

No De Leon and Alvarez? Thanks, but we'll keep Dozier and see if Sano and Buxton grow enough to help us to 80 wins.

I think it's very important for the Twins overall future for Sano and Buxton to "grow" into productive stars. But unless they do it on the mound, it won't do much good. Not many teams make deep post season runs winning 11-8. Pitching. Pitching. Pitching.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I think it's very important for the Twins overall future for Sano and Buxton to "grow" into productive stars. But unless they do it on the mound, it won't do much good. Not many teams make deep post season runs winning 11-8. Pitching. Pitching. Pitching.

 

You only get to trade Dozier once though. And if you don't maximize his value, you'll regret it. It's not the end of the world if he's your starting second baseman in April if you don't get something resembling the Knoblauch trade in terms of talent.

[drivlikejehu]

Dozier could easily produce $50 million in surplus value (vs. free agent rates) during the next 2 seasons. He produced $43 million last year alone, albeit likely in a career year and with a salary that will go up a bit.

 

By comparison, a #25-50 MLB prospect is worth around $20 million. Top 10 prospects are worth 40-50 (pitchers a little less due to higher injury risk). #50-100 prospects are worth around $10 million.

 

Of course, prospect rankings are highly subjective and the above numbers are just general guidelines anyway. But I think it helps illuminate why even at the front office level, opinions of a fair deal could vary widely.

 

Valuations of De Leon are particularly challenging; if I'm the Twins, his shoulder situation worries me, plus the mere fact the Dodgers may be willing to move him makes me wonder how much value they actually attach to him (and of course teams know their own players best). 

 

I think it's very reasonable to think a fair valuation for De Leon is around $25 million. Though the Dodgers paid a ton for Alvarez, his actual prospect status justifies less of a valuation than was paid . . . say $15 million. That leaves the Dodgers short $10 million, which is a Sheffield or Stewart level guy.

 

I might be OK with an 80% return except for one thing - the information asymmetry noted above. Dozier is a known quantity, more or less - certainly the Dodgers would have a pretty good idea what they are getting. The Twins would be exposed to way more risk in taking on minor league pitchers. I'd rather take an even bigger haircut on the Dozier return than be a front office that accepts inferior returns + higher risk in deals.

[DodgerFan1234]

 

You only get to trade Dozier once though. And if you don't maximize his value, you'll regret it. It's not the end of the world if he's your starting second baseman in April if you don't get something resembling the Knoblauch trade in terms of talent.

You never know.  You could theoretically trade him twice if Manfred decides to be the 2nd commissioner to screw and LA team and cite "Baseball Reasons" 

[King]

 

I'm sticking with my prediction, Dozier for JDL, Alverez, and Chris Anderson.

If we are going for the lower upside players with the 3rd and 4th pieces I wouldn't mind picking up 2 players the Dodgers got from the Jays for international cap space to sign Vlad Jr.. Chase De Jong and Tim Locastro. Locastro likely doesn't project to be anymore than a bench piece but he has the Brandon Guyer HBP skill going on and doesn't strikeout. De Jong could be a back of the rotation starter, extreme flyball profile. Yasiel Sierra was good in AA strictly as a reliever, could be a guy.

 

 

[nater79a]

 

I think the Twins have a higher probability of getting the 1965 WS trophy from the Dodgers than they do of getting Urias. 

 

So you're saying there's a chance? 

[AlwaysinModeration]

The old guard didn't settle for anything with Plouffe. How did that work?

 

I'm fine with Falvey and Co. It may be a little premature to praise them for their lack of activity.

Did the old guard ever seriously engage on offers for Plouffe, or work him to build a market for him? It's possible TR didn't "settle" for anything for Plouffe, but that doesn't seem like a true depiction of what happened with Plouffe.

 

Yes, we should wait for the Falvey/Levine actual trade results to make judgments. But it appears to me they have already shown a vastly different approach to managing tradeable assets than Ryan ever did: identifying and being willing to trade the best trade chips at the height of their marketability, talking up their value, (trying to) engage multiple teams, setting high standards/expectations for a return.

 

It's just a very different approach than what I'd grown accustomed to. We'll have to see what the results are, but regardless, it already makes me more optimistic about the future of the Twins org than I have been for some time.

[beckmt]

I have seen a lot of comments on why the Dodgers should not give what the Twins are asking.  There is an underlying assumption here which may or may not be true.

1.  Kershaw has a 2018 opt-out.  If you are convinced Kershaw will never leave LA even if he opts out(and you can afford him with buco luxury tax penalited), you stance is correct.  If you do not know above is a fact, then failing to set your team up for a late postseason run(be it with Dozier or other viable 2nd base options(this assumes upper tier(Rays, Tigers or Twins)), is asking if you fail to have Kershaw decide to leave for a club that is interested in winning the series(Cubs, Nats, Bosox, Yankees) for starters and you have nothing in return except for what the CBA allows. 

At that point in time you have a taxcap team without a legitimate chance to win it all(read current Tigers).  Rays have no need to deal their 2nd baseman with receiving Bellinger in return.  Kinsler would cost too much in tax penalties and extension to be an option.  Probably would only cost De Leon, but the added tax issues will cost a lot down the line. 

Falvey and Levine should be given the benefit of the doubt on this issue.  It is not the issue of which prospects you trade, but the context of failure of the Dodgers to be competitive in the postseason.  This issue is what is being ignored by a great number of posters.

[DocBauer]

I've always liked the Dodgers though I can't say I'm a "fan" as there is only one team in my heart. And I get that no team wants to give up top prospects in a trade situation. Everyone wants to "win" a trade. But except in somewhat rare cases, trade steals don't happen. You have to give up something to get something in return.

 

Maybe the Dodgers system, praised for talent and depth, turns out to not be as loaded as reported. But it would appear, from reports and rankings, that they are. And they are a team with a lot of talent on the ML club, and even by trading away some talent, would still seem to have a bunch on the way. And they are a serious WS contender for 2017 with a big open window to win one. Dozier really fits what they need. And prospects, the Dodgers' or the Twins', are still prospects until they prove themselves. That is the risk the Twins take in moving a known, high quality ML proven player like Dozier for prospects.

 

IMO, I see JDL, Alvarez and another of Stewart, Buehler, etc as a fair offer for the Dozier. Do the Dodgers give up a trio of nice young arms that could turn out to be very good? Yes. But they still have a bunch of quality prospects in their system, they increase their likelihood of reaching the WS with Dozier, said prospects given up are not guaranteed of anything right now, and the Twins assume the proverbial "risk" of the future development of the prospects.

 

To me, it's a win on both sides and fair value for both clubs.

[Platoon]

You only get to trade Dozier once though. And if you don't maximize his value, you'll regret it. It's not the end of the world if he's your starting second baseman in April if you don't get something resembling the Knoblauch trade in terms of talent.

You are correct. It won't be the end of the world. But it also won't be the beginning of a rebuild to a contender either. Nor will Doziers trade for decent pitching prospects likely up the win total this season. But I do think if you are going to trade him, now is the time. It's kinda like knowing you need a different car, and you have a current one to trade. Waiting is not going to change the need for the new car, but it will almost certainly devalue your trade piece. But I will say this. If someone is of the opinion the Twins are trading a 40+ HR guy, then they have a right to think the Twins are holding most of the cards here. But if like me, the opinion is that he likely won't see north of 25 HR's again, then I get while the getting is good. I view his defense as replaceable, and his status as a fan favorite as a moot point. Getting some pitching, and winning more games will put more seats in the seats, than #2 jersey sales.

[Squirrel]

And who is the only young prospect the Dodgers have that would be considered...blown away? If they are speaking of quality over quantity, it would be Urias!

It could be. Or they could want higher quality 3rd and 4th pieces and not just 'filler.'

[laloesch]

 

I've always liked the Dodgers though I can't say I'm a "fan" as there is only one team in my heart. And I get that no team wants to give up top prospects in a trade situation. Everyone wants to "win" a trade. But except in somewhat rare cases, trade steals don't happen. You have to give up something to get something in return.

Maybe the Dodgers system, praised for talent and depth, turns out to not be as loaded as reported. But it would appear, from reports and rankings, that they are. And they are a team with a lot of talent on the ML club, and even by trading away some talent, would still seem to have a bunch on the way. And they are a serious WS contender for 2017 with a big open window to win one. Dozier really fits what they need. And prospects, the Dodgers' or the Twins', are still prospects until they prove themselves. That is the risk the Twins take in moving a known, high quality ML proven player like Dozier for prospects.

IMO, I see JDL, Alvarez and another of Stewart, Buehler, etc as a fair offer for the Dozier. Do the Dodgers give up a trio of nice young arms that could turn out to be very good? Yes. But they still have a bunch of quality prospects in their system, they increase their likelihood of reaching the WS with Dozier, said prospects given up are not guaranteed of anything right now, and the Twins assume the proverbial "risk" of the future development of the prospects.

To me, it's a win on both sides and fair value for both clubs.

 

The way i see it if the Dodgers aren't willing to give up JDL & Alvarez as a baseline for a deal it ain't gonna happen.  Looks like the big hangup is the final piece of the deal.  

[markos]

 

Dozier could easily produce $50 million in surplus value (vs. free agent rates) during the next 2 seasons. He produced $43 million last year alone, albeit likely in a career year and with a salary that will go up a bit.

 

By comparison, a #25-50 MLB prospect is worth around $20 million. Top 10 prospects are worth 40-50 (pitchers a little less due to higher injury risk). #50-100 prospects are worth around $10 million.

 

Of course, prospect rankings are highly subjective and the above numbers are just general guidelines anyway. But I think it helps illuminate why even at the front office level, opinions of a fair deal could vary widely.

 

Valuations of De Leon are particularly challenging; if I'm the Twins, his shoulder situation worries me, plus the mere fact the Dodgers may be willing to move him makes me wonder how much value they actually attach to him (and of course teams know their own players best). 

 

I think it's very reasonable to think a fair valuation for De Leon is around $25 million. Though the Dodgers paid a ton for Alvarez, his actual prospect status justifies less of a valuation than was paid . . . say $15 million. That leaves the Dodgers short $10 million, which is a Sheffield or Stewart level guy.

 

I might be OK with an 80% return except for one thing - the information asymmetry noted above. Dozier is a known quantity, more or less - certainly the Dodgers would have a pretty good idea what they are getting. The Twins would be exposed to way more risk in taking on minor league pitchers. I'd rather take an even bigger haircut on the Dozier return than be a front office that accepts inferior returns + higher risk in deals.

This is exactly the kind of analysis that I've been trying to do in order to inform my expectations. Where did you come up with your numbers? I've been using a combination of two sources: 

1) Prospect surplus values as determined by http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

2) Manually calculating the values based on the Chris Mitchell's KATOH+ projections. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

Both methods have De Leon worth $40M or so. Alvarez by ranking is probably $30M+; KATOH+ has him at $15M.

 

I've played around with my own variation the surplus value model, and I agree that Dozier is worth something around $50M. A lot depends (obviously!) on what one projects for his 2017 and 2018 seasons. Pessimistic projections (like Steamer or Warcels) have him closer to $30M in surplus. Assuming he duplicates his best two seasons (6.5 and 5.2 bWAR), then he would be worth closer to $80M. Assuming 8 WAR over the next two seasons would be $50M in surplus value. I think that is pretty reasonable.

[DaveW]

To confirm: My source continues to say DeLeon and Alvarez are agreed to, it's still down to the 3rd/potential 4th pieces. Dodgers continue to want to trade "meh"/AAAA/PTNBL types, the Twins want legit prospects with potential. If Dodgers offered up a Stewart or Lux as the third piece the deal would already be done.

Twins digging in their heels quite a bit, still plenty of time for this trade to happen. Holidays are here now, so source thinks it would be very surprisingly (but not impossible) for the trade to happen before Jan 2nd or so. No immediate rush during this holiday time, the HOT STOVE, cools down a bit for Santa and Hanukkah.

They will ultimately find a compromise on the third piece.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins have to get creative and start seriously engaging other teams. The Giants are a good fit for Dozier but they don't have much in the way of prospects. The Diamondbacks and Mets may have 2B that could move to cover other deficient infield positions but they don't have many upper level pitching prospects, their best young arms are at the MLB level; in AZ's case they have under-performed, in NY's case they are generally injured. Perhaps the Braves, perhaps the Cardinals, some have said the Yankees.

 

Anyway, there are options that on paper are not as clean as the Dodgers, but a trade doesn't have to be clean. Perhaps it's time to consider a three team deal, perhaps it's time to consider dealing Santana. Perhaps it's time to consider a three team deal that includes Santana. Either way, it would be really nice to hear a rumor involving a non-Dodger team that is more significant than speculative. It would be nice to make the Dodgers feel there is real competition for Dozier because at this point I haven't seen anything that should make them sweat, but other serious considerations aside from the Dodgers would be refreshing as well.

[mazeville]

 

To confirm: My source continues to say DeLeon and Alvarez are agreed to, it's still down to the 3rd/potential 4th pieces. Dodgers continue to want to trade "meh"/AAAA/PTNBL types, the Twins want legit prospects with potential. If Dodgers offered up a Stewart or Lux as the third piece the deal would already be done.

Twins digging in their heels quite a bit, still plenty of time for this trade to happen. Holidays are here now, so source thinks it would be very surprisingly (but not impossible) for the trade to happen before Jan 2nd or so. No immediate rush during this holiday time, the HOT STOVE, cools down a bit for Santa and Hanukkah.

They will ultimately find a compromise on the third piece.

 

If the Dodgers are indeed offering both DeLeon and Alvarez and the Twins are holding out for even more then they'll deserve it if the deal falls through.

 

I get the Twins want an unbelievable package for Dozier but in those two alone you'd get one MLB ready pitcher who is among the top prospects in baseball plus another young stud who throws 100. You really only need throw-ins at that point.

 

Maybe the Twins should throw in some cash to offset the amount of $$$ the Dodgers have invested in Alvarez. But I frankly don't understand why there would be any holdup if that is indeed the deal. Maybe I'm overvaluing the Dodgers' prospects now ...

[LenBarson]

 

IMO, I see JDL, Alvarez and another of Stewart, Buehler, etc as a fair offer for the Dozier. Do the Dodgers give up a trio of nice young arms that could turn out to be very good? Yes. But they still have a bunch of quality prospects in their system, they increase their likelihood of reaching the WS with Dozier, said prospects given up are not guaranteed of anything right now, and the Twins assume the proverbial "risk" of the future development of the prospects.

To me, it's a win on both sides and fair value for both clubs.

 

If they landed JDL+Alvarez+Buehler, I'd take my shirt off and run around outside yelling at people, demanding they accept Falvine as their personal lord and savior.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

If they landed JDL+Alvarez+Buehler, I'd take my shirt off and run around outside yelling at people, demanding they accept Falvine as their personal lord and savior.

I'll join you

[Gheggs08]

One team no one mentions that I think would be a good fit is Atlanta. Dozier is a southern boy and it would be close to home. They are in rebuild mode as well but I think this would help speed up the process. Imagine the power that lineup could produce with Dozier, Freeman, and Kemp hitting 3-5. They have a new stadium and this would show fans they are looking to win. They also have A LOT of minor league pitching.

 

Thoughts? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

One team no one mentions that I think would be a good fit is Atlanta. Dozier is a southern boy and it would be close to home. They are in rebuild mode as well but I think this would help speed up the process. Imagine the power that lineup could produce with Dozier, Freeman, and Kemp hitting 3-5. They have a new stadium and this would show fans they are looking to win. They also have A LOT of minor league pitching.

 

Thoughts?

 

I think they would be all about it if Dozier had an Eaton contract where he was controlled for 5 more years. Atlanta probably won't be ready to compete in the next 2 years, so I think they would want pieces that would be around when they are competitive

[Gheggs08]

 

I think they would be all about it if Dozier had an Eaton contract where he was controlled for 5 more years. Atlanta probably won't be ready to compete in the next 2 years, so I think they would want pieces that would be around when they are competitive

I agree with your point, but don't you think they would have enough money available to sign him to an extension? Close to home and they will be good soon

[Cory Engelhardt]

I agree with your point, but don't you think they would have enough money available to sign him to an extension? Close to home and they will be good soon

Quite possibly. If Mike Foltynewicz were to become available, I would JUMP at that offer

[Cory Engelhardt]

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/dorn-dodgers-need-trade-brian-dozier-despite-high-cost/

 

New article says the dodgers should give up de Leon and Bellinger and bite the bullet to get dozier

[d-mac]

 

I don't believe that's true.  Dodgers are right there with the Cubs, IMO.

 

Correct, they are competing 2017 version Cubs sans Fowler and Chapman, not the 2016 Cubs. People seem to forget that.

[gunnarthor]

If the Giants were interested and dangling a package around Arroyo and Beede, the Twins might listen.  Arroyo looks like he could take over third from Sano in a couple years and Beede is their best pitching prospect.  I'm not sure how the Twins view those two but it could be something that pushes the Dodgers to pay more.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If the Giants were interested and dangling a package around Arroyo and Beede, the Twins might listen.  Arroyo looks like he could take over third from Sano in a couple years and Beede is their best pitching prospect.  I'm not sure how the Twins view those two but it could be something that pushes the Dodgers to pay more.

Do you like either of those two as much as De Leon?

[gunnarthor]

 

Do you like either of those two as much as De Leon?

I'm in the minority here as I don't like De Leon much.  Shoulder soreness terrifies me.  I don't like that he's short and I think his ceiling in limited.  Too much risk for me.  I like him more than Beede but I probably like Arroyo more.  But I also don't know anything and am just basing this off of a few different websites.  Ideally, the Twins have a lot more information and smarter people to review it.

[nicksaviking]

 

If the Giants were interested and dangling a package around Arroyo and Beede, the Twins might listen.  Arroyo looks like he could take over third from Sano in a couple years and Beede is their best pitching prospect.  I'm not sure how the Twins view those two but it could be something that pushes the Dodgers to pay more.

 

I'd like that mostly from the perspective that another serious suitor would give the Twins leverage. The more I read about Beede the less I like though. Sounds like he has become a sinkerball pitcher, which justly or not has become an incredible turn off for me lately.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'm in the minority here as I don't like De Leon much.  Shoulder soreness terrifies me.  I don't like that he's short and I think his ceiling in limited.  Too much risk for me.  I like him more than Beede but I probably like Arroyo more.  But I also don't know anything and am just basing this off of a few different websites.  Ideally, the Twins have a lot more information and smarter people to review it.

Yeah De Leon's shoulder scares me a bit too, along with his lack of innings (114 is his max, in 2015, 88 last year.) Beede and Arroyo, if offered, could be a good deal, or at least would get the dodgers to sweat a little