jcphitman

I look at it this way. The Twins could have traded a draft pick for Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn. All in their 30’s and all requiring three plus year commitments a higher overall price. Instead, they dealt for two years of a pitcher in his late 20’s and can separate with him before his age 30 at a two year max commitment at a reduced price vs. signing a FA unless they want to extend it longer. The draft is growing in popularity. More picks mean more money and more opportunities for the FO to bring in their hand picked players. The prospect we gave up while good is from a spot of strength and an international signing from a past FO group. I know there are much more statistics to compare. I’m choosing the financial approach with this one. Archer would have been the ideal target, but the Rays have to agree to trade him. If they trade him, good luck selling 5,000 seats per game. They need to retain some sort of selling point to their dwindling fan base. Maybe the Twins can blow them away with another offer for Archer, but it does appear they’ve made their move for the rotation.

I'm getting tired of waiting for a deal but patience is a virtue. I don't think we need 2 MLB ready SP. The inn is full. Get De Leon, Alvarez, and whatever else you can negotiate. With this for SP next year, you have... Santana Gibson Hughes Berrios De Leon May Duffey Santiago Mejia That's 9 options. Why do we need more? I get it if you trade Santana or Santiago or both, but that doesn't seem pretty hot right now. De Leon helps now and hopefully Alvarez helps later. Both are worth it. Get them and whatever additional fodder you can get and call it a day. If the Dodgers won't offer it, then move on with Dozier and groom what you have in the system for the future.

Dave, thanks for the scoop. Hoping more Alvarez than Bellinger, but woild take either. Somewhat disappointed Lux is not the third piece. Wish the Twins could forego the fourth piece if it was DeLeon, Alvarez/Bellinger and Lux. No harm if you're incorrect on this one. Fun reading trade chatter!

If this was already covered in another post, I apologize. Just heard it while listening to the daily Baseball Prospectus podcast entitled Effectively Wild (Monday's edition). They were making a funny point on Price and a comment he made about wanting to stay in the AL, but had 11 teams on a list that he would like to play for. I think they said 5 of those teams were NL teams, but one of the teams on that list? The Twins. Yes, the Twins. Absent teams on that list included the Yankees, Astros and Angels. Three of those teams were teams he has already played for (Rays, Jays and Tigers). Royals were also on the list. I know we never would have even sniffed signing Price, but it's just interesting the Twins would even make the list. It's kind of cool a SP of his caliber would want to come play in Minnesota. Just something interesting that I figured others would want to know. Back to just hoping we sign someone like Sipp, lol.

A few thoughts from last year when Hughes signed and now this year. Last Year: 1. In 2012 offseason, I remember TR saying the Twins has offers out, but nobody wanted to take their money. Many of us were skeptical. Last year, I think it proved to be a moot point at both Hughes and Nolasco took their money. 2. I think Hughes saw something here. The Twins most likely sold him on the future and their pitcher's park. He also saw the team was willing to guarantee him a 3 year deal for pretty good money (under market value, but good) for the season he just had. He saw security and took it. 3. The Twins saw something in Hughes. One has to remember he's pitched his entire career in the American League. That's valuable to the Twins. They hedged their bet on FA last year by signing a career NL SP. They were able to get an AL SP here who was still in his 20's and under reasonable terms for more than just a year on a rebound. It clearly paid off for both sides. This Year: 1. Hughes experienced the losing, but saw a light. He saw the Twins are trying. He saw the team wanted to give him every opportunity to succeed and rewarded them. He also saw the loyalty. People knock the Twins for their loyalty, but it paid off in this one. I saw a tweet that Hughes was impressed with the way the team was going and very happy with the recent signings (ie - Santana). The tweet said he was more than happy to extend his deal in Minnesota. He's not under the spotlight as he was in NY and he's growing with a young team. 2. The Twins saw a pitcher who had success in the AL before have a career year with them last year. They felt comfortable knowing Hughes had the AL track record, was young, and they could lock up for a good chunk of time under a reasonable extension. The Twins also saw a pitcher who has been to the playoffs and won a World Series. It all fits well as they have someone established to hopefully pitch well and show the young guys the was as they come up. All in all, a very fair deal on both sides. Hughes gets long term security on a team that has the pieces in place to become successful and also a place he's clearly comfortable being in. The Twins get what appears to be a good SP in his prime who hopefully can have success long term as they keep climbing. Both sides loyal to each other. Best of all, this sends a message to players out there. It shows FA's that players DO want the Twins' money and this is as good of a market as any to sign with and play for. I'm sure many players around the league and their agents are looking at Minnesota as a good place to play. They have seen the Twins finally step up willing to pay to bring in talent and treat that talent with a lot of respect. That will help us in the future as we continue getting better and start needing final pieces here and there to make a good run.

At least the Correia cash seems to be getting used on the team for the new player signings! I'm okay with Parm being designated for assignment. We have better options right now and he just doesn't fit. Wish him the best in the future as long as it isn't against us.

Quite the interesting article and possibility. Two schools of thought here: 1. The Twins want to try and compete this year as there is no ASG or attraction to bring the fans to TF. We are at four 90 plus loss seasons. They'll try and sell the fans on the new coaching staff and Torii Hunter, but how far will it go? TR recently said anything else in addition would be pitching (of course he could just be saying that, but...). Keeping Plouffe does help them be competitive and keeps third warm if/when they want to try Sano down the road. It also gives the Twins someone established to market. 2. If deep down, Ryan understands the team won't contend, dealing Plouffe at what his top value is (which is something this team rarely does) needs to be considered. The Giants have great assets to deal back as already discussed in this thread. Escobar can easily take third for the time being. I doubt Sano is going to be the long term answer at third, but he could be tried there without displacing Plouffe should the team decide to keep him. I'd say trade Plouffe even though there is no long term answer with Sano, Escobar, Mauer, etc. as possible replacements. He brings great possibilities back. Maybe even force the Giants to take Pelf? Someone mentioned Suzuki being dealt. That won't happen. You don't sign someone to an extension and then trade them in the offseason right after. Just my two limey quid...

This was a great article! Nick, thanks for writing. Very good perspective. It would be hard to blame the Twins if they didn't add a pitcher. They have enough money involved in who is on the roster. I think they will probably add someone anyway (not a top name as discussed in the article ... someone who might be coming off an injury). I could also see them trying to sell off Pelf to a team that doesn't get the arm they want or a team that needs a pitcher on the back end. We'll see what happens. If there is a lack of activity on the pitching front, this will be the reason why.

So tomorrow they must do something (day 3) if he goes on waivers 7 days before day 10? I read Rosenthal's column the Twins and Angles were interested. I'm guessing the Angels would need to make a trade and the A's don't want to deal in their division. He then most likely goes on waivers and the Twins are team number 2 since it goes AL first to get him, right? Hopefully we see something tomorrow. He could help us in the short term and maybe earn himself a roster spot for a year or two. I'd love having him aboard ... especially now!

I'd much rather have what the Twins did this year than them waiting for nothing but the bargain bin in previous years. Last year it was tough to find pitchers to take their money. This year they found some good enough pitchers who will hopefully help. I hope they don't think waiting is now the norm. Tanaka really stalled the market. Had he not been around, I think the market would have went much quicker than it did.

I can see the guy's point about chemistry myself. The more you work with someone, the more it gels. I've been with my team over two years now managing a bank branch and we gel a lot easier than we did when we all came together. It's not great by any means, but it's very functional and we've been very successful. As for Pelfrey, I think it's something more than chemistry. I think it's a sense of obligation from both parties: 1. I think the Twins feel obligated to give Pelfrey another shot. I almost wonder if Pelfrey was a rebound signing last year after Baker went to the Cubs. I wonder if the Twins FO felt hurt over Baker going and went to get another TJ recovery SP to see who did better. Pelf of course killed Baker last year even though he was pretty bad. The Twins now put up with the rough season of Pelf's recovery and now they feel obligated to bring him back and roll the dice when the better part of the recovery comes with the bionic arm (or so we hope). The Twins know Pelf, feel comfortable with him, and now want to reap the rewards. 2. I think Pelfrey feels obligated to the Twins in turn. The Twins took a chance on him last year, kept him in the rotation all year, and gave him every chance to succeed. He wasn't badgered even with a bad year. He felt relaxed here and ended up liking it here. He now wants to reward the team for taking a chance on him recovering from TJ to hopefully give them what could be two of the best years of his career post TJ (that's a big IF about the two years being two of the best). He's loyal because the Twins took a chance on him. It's a marriage of one party wanting to stay with the other party due to what could be and being comfortable and the other party wanting to remain loyal. We'll see if the marriage works if it ends in divorce.

How is clearing out 3.5 million going to help sign Arroyo for multiple years? I saw the tweet, but I don't believe it. Do you want Arroyo, who is 37 at 2-3 years or do you want a younger Corriea for cheaper at 1 year? As much as I love following and reading about player acquisitions, I think we're looking at a catcher (Suzuki or Buck). If anything, we're go after one of them (and will get one of them) and the only other major upgrade I see us making is SS. We'll continue to be in the Drew discussion and maybe sign Diaz from Cuba after he shows what he can do in Feb (when he's eligible to sign). Anything else would most likely trading Worley or Diamond for a C prospect at best.

My apologies if this was already posted. I tried to scan for a Reynolds topic, but did not see one. Anyway, from MLB Trade Rumors: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/new-york-notes-reynolds-baker-murphy-tejada.html Earlier today, the Yankees reached agreements with both Brian Roberts and Matt Thornton.They're likely to continue adding pieces, however. A source confirmed to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (Twitter link) that the Yanks have spoken to Mark Reynolds' agent, though nothing is close on that front. Here's the latest on Reynolds, the Yankees and the Mets... The Yankees are in on Reynolds, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, but they'll face competition from the Twins, Angels and others in their attempt to land him. Reynolds' stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynoma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com What interests me: Classic power hitter. Reminds me somewhat of Russell Branyon (not comparing stats ... just see his HR total with the low BA and K's seems to think hit or miss. He was released last year by Cleveland and signed by the Yankees. I'm not much of an expert on him. What do others think of him? His stats page says he plays first and third. If he plays third, there is a good chance he could get into the lineup regularly until Sano comes up. If he's more of an emergency 3B, then I think we might be best to pass up on him. We have enough of the 1B/DH players. Thoughts?

Berdino (SP) tweeted Twins still feel they can sign Arroyo. He might be coming still too. Wow.

One more point signing Pelf early when Garza and Arroyo are still out there. We were going after AJ and Salty. Both went elsewhere. Now we're left chasing Suzuki and Buck. AJ and Salty are much better options IMO to pair with Pinto. TR most likely saw the C situation and decided his last SP signing was going to be quick so he wasn't going see a dried up market.

For the record before I type anything else, I don't like the signing. Like anyone, I'd of rather had Garza. I'd even of rather had Arroyo. However, what's done is done and we have to move on with Pelfrey in the plans. We have to live with what they do. They chose to bring him back. We have to go with it. So while dealing with it, let's look at some key points: 1. Pelfrey is NOT THE SIGNING this year. That title belongs to Nolsaco and even Hughes is better. Pelfrey is a far third when it comes to who we've already signed. Last year, I think Pelfrey was either THE SIGNING or 1a to Correia's 1. All they had to show us last year was Correia and Pelfrey. This year, they have a durable and proven Nolsaco, a young Hughes still in his 20's for the entire duration of his deal with hope of immediate improvement, and now Pelfrey. We also have an exceeded above expectations Correia in the second year of a very favorable deal. We then have a collection of options for the last spot with making them compete and truly the best man winning. Remember this team already did two better SP signings and broke their own external FA signing record on both of them, the Pelfrey signing is easier to swallow. 2. We should have no reason not to believe the second season of post TJ surgery won't be good to Pelfrey. As many people say, when you get to the second and third season of post TJ, you have a bionic arm. Pelfrey will not light anyone up with a better arm, but he will improve and hopefully touch 93. If he can turn into the Pelfrey of 2010 for us, it's a good deal. 3. The deal doesn't set the world on fire. It's essentially Correia part 2 (just with incentives). If Pelfrey can pitch like Correia did last year, we'll go into year 1 ahead of the deal. 4. We all know the Twins and Boras don't do business very well. From way back when Boras stole Travis Lee from us to get him to the D-Backs during their expansion season. Terry Ryan and Boras aren't the best chums out there. Boras has most likely been quite hesitant to work with us and our stingy reputation. Outside of Joe Crede, I can't recall a Boras client that was in the market that chose to work with us outside of Pelfrey. Coming to a compromise with Boras and signing one of his clients for multiple years could very well send a message to the super agent we're really open for business. Remember, he DOES represent Stephen Drew, who is STILL out there. I'm not saying signing Pelf will lead to Drew, but it might influence Boras to look at us more and even come to a fair deal for Drew. I'm also not saying Drew will light up the world at SS, but he's much more proven than Florimon. TR says we want offense. Getting Drew helps us with that offensive need and makes the SS position more attractive. 5. Pelf wanted to return here. Name a lot of FA's who truly want to come here after the losing we've been through. Nolasco? He came here because we offered what he wanted. Hughes? I doubt we were his first choice. I think he came here because teams like the Giants and Padres were set plus we were willing to give more years. Pelfrey? He pitched here through a terrible team last year (and he was bad), but he wanted to return. He should be better in 2014 than he was in 2013. He wanted to be here. Sometimes you need to bite the bullet and bring in people who want to be here or return here. It shows other players we're a chosen destination. I guarantee other players are looking at Pelf returning and saying maybe there is something about Minnesota. It at least helps us in the future he wanted to return and we brought him back. 6. As I said in point 1, it makes the fifth spot quite competitive for those who are left. It sends a message to Worley, Albers, Deduno, Diamond, and even Gibson we aren't going to tolerate tossing out. It could be argued some of them are better than Pelfrey, but not at this stage of their careers. Gibson SHOULD be better than Pelfrey as he now enters season two post TJ, but he needs to earn it and prove it. Pelfrey came back quicker and did more than Gibson. Pelfrey has the experience Gibson does not have. I hope Gibson grabs the bull by the horns and claims a spot permanently in the rotation. A spot is then opened for Meyer in 2015 when Correia comes off the books. We then have two cost controlled pitchers for a good while mixing in with vets. 7. If worse comes to worse, it's a short term deal that we can hopefully deal Pelfrey to a pitching desperate team if need be. It'll be easier to move him than Nolsaco and maybe even Hughes. 8. We could have been on the outside looking in when this was all set. The Reds are saying they'll offer Arroyo one year, but that may end up being enough. Arroyo likes the Reds over everyone else and could be using the Twins as leverage. If he goes, then what? Garza? The Angels will trump any offer we throw at him. They proved they'll spend like crazy for Hamilton and Pujols. Why not go pitching now? Tanaka? If he even gets posted and we all know the Yankees will go the 20 million and then more (unless they can't if teams worse than them can bid just as much and be guaranteed negotiating over them ... I'm unclear of the new system). If all of our options ran dry (which I see happen more than normal being a Minnesota sports fan), what then? We could have gone with what we had, but Pelfrey does offer more experience and a more proven alternative than Worley, Diamond, Gibson, Deduno pairing. Sometimes you just toss an offer out there and see who goes first. The Twins are loyal anyway. They were going to bring Pelf back before anyone else they were chasing. 9. Again, at least the Twins were aggressive. Name another off season when they went into the FA market and brought in three experienced names. Were they what we would have picked? Maybe and maybe not. However, they did something and we've been begging them to do something for years. They finally gave in and did something. Beggars can't be choosers. I still don't like the signing as I stated before all of these points. However, it's not the worst thing in the world. We could have Maholm, Penny, or some other even worse pitcher at this point. I guess glass half full is better than glass half empty. Hopefully Pelf proves us wrong like Correia did last year with not as much pressure due to Nolasco and Hughes being here as higher level acquisitions.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=3049&line=416846&spln=1 [TABLE] [TABLE=width: 100%] [TD=class: headline, colspan: 3][h=2]Bronson Arroyo: Reds to offer Bronson Arroyo one-year deal[/h] [TD=bgcolor: #c6011f, colspan: 3]Bronson Arroyo - S - CIN - Dec. 13 - 6:42 pm et [/TD] [TD=colspan: 3]According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Reds have told free agent right-hander Bronson Arroyo that they will offer him a one-year deal. The Reds don't expect the 36-year-old for a ninth season with the team, as there are several other teams interested in his services. Perhaps if he can't secure the deal he's looking for though, it could make sense to re-up for another season and test the free agent waters again next year. Dec. 13 - 6:42 pm et Source: Buster Olney on Twitter [/TD] [TD=width: 300, colspan: 4][/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] To see more Bronson Arroyo news items click here... To see more MLB news items click here... I also read an article I think from the Cincinnati Enquirer (or some Cincy paper) I now can't find confirming they were offering him one year. The article discussed the Reds already having a 5 man set rotation and jokingly saying it would go 6 if they can bring back Arroyo. It did say two of the pitchers are coming back from injury, but the Reds are still set to go with them. The article also discussed the Reds wanting to give Arroyo a chance to explore the FA market before coming back to him. I think if all is even and 1 year is all he can get, Arroyo goes back to the Reds. In the article, Arroyo said he would have accepted the qualifying offer had the Reds offered it to him (and the 14 + million salary that comes with the one year offer). He certainly isn't going to get that kind of money with whatever one year the Reds are offering now. I think Arroyo may have to downgrade his demands to 2 years. If he does that, I see TR setting aside his other options and going for Arroyo. I've seen a report TR wants Garza for 3 years, but Garza wants 5. If TR can get 2 years on Arroyo, he's probably set stop pursuing Garza. I also think TR would even prefer Arroyo over Pelfrey on a two year deal (even though I'm sure Big Pelf is cheaper). Should be interesting to see if the Twins or another team make a two or even three year offer to Arroyo now that the Reds have played their hand. The Reds may have done it just to say "we did something to try and retain him" or are banking on Arroyo really wanting to retire there and taking a series of one year deals to do it so the team has minimal risk should an injury happen or he declines in pitching. What say you? [/TABLE]

I just saw Colon to the Mets for 2 years and 20 million. Glad they got him! Twins now have a less option for Arroyo. I hope the Twins either go all in in Garza or get away with two years on Arroyo. I hope this doesn't eliminate an option for Pelfrey and the Twins opt to bring him back. I'd be thrilled with Garza, OK with Arroyo, and highly disappointed with Pelfrey.

Touche, sir! I blanked with replying with my analysis. Thanks for catching it. Deduno is already in. It just means the team is going to have to make some very interesting decisions going forward. Who do they keep and who do they try to trade or let go? We'll all be watching closely.

Reider, I'd disagree with you on the third SP. When you look at it, we have the following: Nolasco Hughes Correia ??????? ??????? To fill those two question marks, we have: Gibson Worley - out of options Diamond - out of options Albers - out of options (can someone please confirm this??) Johnson Duensing??? Swarzak??? De Vries (is he even around anymore??) I put Duensing and Swarzak in there because TR did say they should be prepared to start. I doubt they will and he'll most likely keep them in the bullpen. You think Gibson might end up getting one of the two, but we have to question if the Twins want to give up on Worley and Diamond. Both of them at least have had one recent good season at the MLB level. Also, you have to wonder if we want a left-handed starter in the rotation. The only one doing that outside of Duensing is Diamond and Albers. Personally, I'm not ready to cut the bait on either Diamond or Worley. If I were TR, I'd tender Duensing and trade him. He's becoming more expensive and wasn't as good last year. Let him go and let Diamond either make the team as a starter or put him in Duensing's bullpen role. As for Worley, I think be should be assured a spot to start out. If he can't make it, then let him go after May or June. Before then, let him see what he can do. He's young enough to rebound. Of course putting Diamond in the pen and letting Worley and Gibson into the rotation means we have an all RH staff. Probably not the best, but this is what was decided upon when signing Hughes and Nolasco as well as retaining Correia. Bringing back Pelfrey does nothing IMO unless he was left-handed. I would designate Albers for assignment and see what happens. I doubt a team will claim him. He can then be re-signed for Rochester to add depth and be an emergency call-up. You hopefully then retain a lefty. For the first part of the year, we then have: Nolasco Hughes Correia Worley Gibson Diamond is in the pen. If an injury happens or one of the starters struggle, Diamond moves to the rotation and gives us the lefty. I don't think putting Gibson in the minors is going to be helpful at all. He's what .. 25 (maybe close to 26??). He doesn't need anymore conditioning. If he not MLB ready now, he'll never be. He needs a full season to show us what he can do and if he'll be a long term solution to a spot in the rotation. Nothing is going to be easy, but I do feel we now have enough in house options not to sign anyone else to take a spot.

Great replies and discussion so far! Reading the replies makes me want to either assist or direct the debate further. I don't have the exact posters (sorry ... just remembering what I read for replies), but a poster mentioned how TR wasn't exactly thrilled with the options last year for SP on FA. I agree very much. I remember reading or hearing somewhere we had an 8 million dollar offer out to Joe Saunders, but he was to Seattle in hopes I think of winning better (didn't work out for him there and it wouldn't have worked here either). I didn't even get to Saunders on the comparison front, but Correia had a better season if I remember correctly. If our choices were McCarthy, Feldman, Saunders, Lannan, etc. of realistic SP who were going to sign here, can we blame TR for not bringing more of them here? What good would they have done? Okay so you get Correia, McCarthy, and Pelfrey (we probably don't bring in Pelfrey if we get McCarthy). McCarthy becomes our big acqusition last year ... what good does it do? He gets hurt, flames out, and we're even more upset. TR most likely looked at the options, shook his head, and said the best he can do is a couple of vets who hopefully can log innings. Nobody will ever say they are rebuilding ... especially in a newer stadium. However, we all knew it. TR needed another year to get the prospects closer and have the plan come together. Grienke wasn't coming here. If you wanted Sanchez, we'd be talking over 100 million and then some the Twins just won't spend (they didn't even spend north of 100 million this year so far on players). Even signing Edwin Jackson last year would have been too early. Removing those two and you have mediocre to poor to terrible. Who else was coming here last year outside of Correia that would have done anything for us? TR decided to roll the dice on hope by getting Meyer, May, and Worley. He figured Worley was on the right track. Worley was awful. I'm in the camp of hoping he can turn it around this year and join the rotation as a good pitcher. I hope he wins the number 5 spot and shows he can be a force. He needs at least one more audition before we cut bait. We all know Sano will be here at some point during the season. We know Sano will be part of the team for all of 2015. We know Meyer will probably at the very least be a September call-up and then with the team all of 2015. We know Buxton might be a September call-up and if he is, he's here in 2015. If he's not, he'll be here at some point in 2015. It all makes sense now to sign Nolasco and Hughes so they are well into their deals come 2015 and 2016 when we make a run. Many think we'll be bad next year ... I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet. I think we have some hope to at least play some meaninful games into August and maybe even September. I'm not saying playoffs, but Target Field won't be a dead zone come June. I think having Correia to join Nolasco and Hughes is going to help more than hurt us next year. In the end, TR was dealt a terrible hand last year to play. He made the best possible move he could with Correia. Correia may have been the big acqusition, but there are not a lot of names that turned out to be better. I also forgot to answer the Lohse question. There was a poster who challenged me. My argument Correia is better than Lohse is due to long term contract requirements and the draft pick the Brewers gave up to sign him. Lohse did have a better season, but not by that much to justify a longer deal and draft pick compensation for him. We only gave up money and two years for Correia. Therefore, I give Correia the nod. Let the discussion continue!

No problem on changing the thread title. Whatever encourages discussion is fine by me! Thanks to everyone for very good replies. Hopefully the discussion can continue. I didn't take into account how upset many of us were that Correia was "the guy" last year. That is a very good explanation as to why many of us (including myself) were upset. Thanks to those who brought this up as that is a major point. We should apologize to Correia and thank him for signing here! He could have went elsewhere, but chose to come here and suffer with us while being the best SP on the staff. I'm not as opposed to the second year now that 2013 is over. We can't change last year. We took our whooping and have moved on. Let's say we were looking for 3 SP's this year instead of two. We have signed Nolasco and Hughes (which I like and back no matter how they turn out), we all know TR and the staff would be looking for a third SP on the cheap to toss 180-200 innings next year and be okay. I don't think anyone would balk at giving Correia 5.5 million to be the third acquisition this year. As long as he stays healthy and does as we expect, the two year deal will be very worth it (which I hinted at in my original post). Would you rather give Correia 5.5 million this year for one year or Feldman 10 million a year for 3 years (I'm sure that I'm over-estimating what he will get)? Feldman is the better SP, but I'd go with Correia to save money and years. If anything, I think TR got a huge reality check last season. He thought that somehow he could still make it on the cheap. He was hoping our AAAA pitchers would make it and Correia could help patch it together. He thought he could save money and make it happen like 2001 all over again. He learned the way things are done have changed. He learned that you need drafting/building through the system, trades, and even the dreaded FA to make it work. I'm not expecting a Cinderella season with Nolasco and Hughes, but I'd at least hope we contend for 500 and start pointing upward when Buxton, Sano, and Meyer either get here or get closer to being here. If anything, we as fans should feel much better with Nolasco, Hughes, and Correia in the fold for 3 of the 5 spots in the rotation. As long as there are no injuries, they will log many innings and give our already decent bullpen a rest. Maybe it does turn a bit into 2001 next year and we make a little run at the Tigers and Indians!

8. Shaun Marcum [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]78.1 [/TD] [TD=align: left]1-10 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]5.29 [/TD] [TD=align: left]60 [/TD] [TD=align: left]21 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] To be fair, he was an injury risk before he even signed with the Mets last year. However, I know we were pushing for the Twins to ink him (I remember being pro-Marcum). Clearly Correia was much better. : Correia better. 9. Dan Haren [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]169.2 [/TD] [TD=align: left]10-14 [/TD] [TD=align: left]1 [/TD] [TD=align: left]4.67 [/TD] [TD=align: left]151 [/TD] [TD=align: left]31 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Correia pitched more innings and had a lower ERA, but Haren has more K's and less walks in around the same sample size. Yes Haren was NL, but I do feel he had more talent. He was on a one year deal, which I think edges him out. It's very close, but I'll go Haren just barely. : Haren better. 10. Jeff Francis [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]70.1 [/TD] [TD=align: left]3-5 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]6.27 [/TD] [TD=align: left]63 [/TD] [TD=align: left]24 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I think in more innings, he'd of easily handled Correia in K's. However, he had a horrible season and would have made us feel even worse for having him here vs. Correia. Correia wins easily. : Correia better. 11. Jeremy Guthrie [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]211.2 [/TD] [TD=align: left]15-12 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]4.04 [/TD] [TD=align: left]111 [/TD] [TD=align: left]59 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Royals paid big to retain him. Twins wanted him. He did log more innings and looks to have been more successful. Had Correia reached his innings, it appears he would have logged more K's. Correia allowed less walks, but that total would have more close too had Correia matched the IP. ERA was close. I did give Correia the nod over Lohse due to contract and draft pick compensation. No draft pick here, but I do feel Guthrie did have the better year overall and is a better SP. It's close again and some of my logic could say Correia is better with less cost/years on the deal, but I do feel Guthrie would have been better, but not by much. : Guthrie better. 12: Joe Blanton [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]132.2 [/TD] [TD=align: left]2-14 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]6.04 [/TD] [TD=align: left]108 [/TD] [TD=align: left]34 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] We were close to this guy! I remember reading or hearing recently (I think on Gleeman and the Geek??) that had we committed one more year, he'd of come here. Sure glad that didn't happen! Only thing Blanton takes Correia on is K's. Otherwise, Correia dominated. : Correia better. 13. Scott Feldman [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]181.2 [/TD] [TD=align: left]12-12 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]3.86 [/TD] [TD=align: left]132 [/TD] [TD=align: left]56 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Feldman did better. He was consistent in both the NL and AL last year. He went for a one year deal vs. the extra year Correia got. I guess if anything, his stats don't blow Correia away, which I like. He had more K's and a less ERA, but allowed more walks. At least Correia made it somewhat of a battle. Still though, Feldman wins. : Feldman better. 14. Freddy Garcia [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]80.1 [/TD] [TD=align: left]4-7 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]4.37 [/TD] [TD=align: left]46 [/TD] [TD=align: left]17 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Another one we wanted. He got a one year deal and looks like he'd of edged Correia in K's, but we still had the better edge here easily. : Correia better. 15. Scott Baker [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]15.0 [/TD] [TD=align: left]0-0 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]3.60 [/TD] [TD=align: left]6 [/TD] [TD=align: left]4 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] One of our own. Barely pitched. Even Pelfrey was a better SP than him! Must hurt Baker the pitchers we replaced him with even did better even though we were terrible. The team he chose was terrible. : Correia better. 16. John Lannan [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]74.1 [/TD] [TD=align: left]3-6 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]5.33 [/TD] [TD=align: left]38 [/TD] [TD=align: left]27 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Just tossing him in here because we had wanted him too and wondered why TR didn't go after him. Correia wins here as well. : Correia better Overall: Compared to 16 FA pitchers last year (I used the CBS sports article http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/20836035/free-agent-rankings-starting-pitchers for reference), Correia did better than 10 of them IMO. That's pretty dang decent. While I'd rather have Correia last year on a one year deal, having him for 2 might help us this year. He's now essentially on a one year deal at 5.5 million. Consider what Feldman will sign for. I take it that he'll easily get multiple years and much more than Correia his second time around FA. I honestly think after the year Correia put together for us last year in a change from NL to AL, he'd be able to at least gain a one year contract (if not two) for more than we're paying him. Kevin Correia is not perfect and far from the best, but last season was a wash. We now move into 2014 with expecting more from Nolasco and Hughes than Correia. Correia will not be in the spotlight as much as he was last year (he essentially was our big acquisition last year) and we seem to know what to expect. If he duplicates in 2014 what he did in 2013, I consider this contract a major win for the Twins and TR. We do rip the Twins for many years of bargain bin deals, but this one actually turned out okay. Of course the team backed itself into such a corner than they HAD to spend (and I'm fully on board with the Nolasco and Hughes deals even though the chances of either of them being worth it won't happen ... market rate for SP's). If anything, Correia is a small victory on a terrible 2013 and hope for 2014 that around 180 to 200 innings are spoken for at an ok performance for less money than what someone else of that talent level might command (as long as there is no injury). I'd love for someone much more advanced than me to take the Correia discussion deeper. Include advanced stats for the compared pitchers and also go deeper into contract situations. I take it I'm barely scratching the surface here. IMO, it's fascinating to dissect and the winter is the time to do this kind of stuff! I take no offense to any disagreements, criticisms, or different opinions on what I have presented. I hope to read much greater analysis than what I've provided. Thanks for reading! TR, I'm sorry for being so upset at you for Correia. At least on this one, you won (now keep fixing all the other errors, lol!)!

My apologies if a thread like this was already discussed in the past. It was on my mind recently. Wanted to cover it. In no way am I a decent baseball analyst, but I do hope to create a piece people will enjoy reading just for fun. Have we ever apologized to TR about Kevin Correia? I remember he took a beating last winter for giving him a two year deal. I even remember that I did a post on who they should sign and spoke out against Correia at the least attractive FA to sign. Low and behold, they signed him. While 2013 was terrible overall, Correia was well ... okay for his standards. He wasn't great. He wasn't terrible. He came as advertised and seemed to survive from changing leagues and pitching for a terrible team. All in all, he appears to have been the most complete pitcher for us last year. His 2013 stats (nothing crazy here ... just very basic stats) [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]185.1 [/TD] [TD=align: left]9-13 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]4.18 [/TD] [TD=align: left]101 [/TD] [TD=align: left]45 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] We got him for 2 years and 9 million. I wanted to compare his basic stats to what other FA pitchers did last year. Below are the top names from last year and what they did ... I have included in my opinion if we were better off with Corriea or should have been better off with the other pitcher. 1. Zack Greinke [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]177.2 [/TD] [TD=align: left]15-4 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]2.63 [/TD] [TD=align: left]148 [/TD] [TD=align: left]46 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Analysis: Sure ... Greinke would be better, but we wouldn't have met his asking price last year or this year. He was hurt for a while, but Correia did log more innings overall. Even if we take Corriea away and put Greinke in there, it doesn't change our season at all. Hard to compare. Still though: Greinke better. 2. Kyle Lohse[TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]198.2 [/TD] [TD=align: left]11-10 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]3.35 [/TD] [TD=align: left]125 [/TD] [TD=align: left]36 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Yeah, Lohse was better, but I'd argue we made out a bit better with Correia. Lohse pitched a few more innings and struck more people out whole allowing less walks. His ERA also looks better. However, the Brewers had to sign him to a bigger contract AND give up a pick (I think their first was not protected) to acquire him. The differences are not that great to say Lohse was the better player. With the pick involved and longer contract, I'd take Correia. Twins have advantage here: Correia better. 3. Edwin Jackson [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]175.1 [/TD] [TD=align: left]8-18 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]4.98 [/TD] [TD=align: left]135 [/TD] [TD=align: left]59 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Here is someone who was much more coveted than Correia and did worse! Correia signed a more team friendly contract. More wins, less losses, lower ERA, more innings pitched, and less walks. Jackson only beats Correia on K's. Plus this is an AL vs. NL pitcher! Yes, the Cubs were bad, but Correia wins here. TR with a big I told you so on this one: Correia better. 4. Hiroki Kuroda [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]201.1 [/TD] [TD=align: left]11-13 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]3.31 [/TD] [TD=align: left]150 [/TD] [TD=align: left]43 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Pretty obvious Kuroda was better. Beats Correia across the board. However, hard to sign him when he'd never have played here. Still want to fairly pit Correia against what was available. : Kuroda better 5. Brandon McCarthy[TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]135.0 [/TD] [TD=align: left]5-11 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]4.53 [/TD] [TD=align: left]76 [/TD] [TD=align: left]21 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I didn't follow the D-Backs, but I take it he was hurt during the season. Still though, Correia beats him out. This is also comparing an AL to NL pitcher again and Correia still wins. I know many were on the Twins for not signing this guy. Another TR win. : Correia better. 6. Anibal Sanchez [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]182.0 [/TD] [TD=align: left]14-8 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]2.57 [/TD] [TD=align: left]202 [/TD] [TD=align: left]54 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] He wasn't going to sign here from what it appeared last year. Sort of not fair to compare, but clearly he was the much better pitcher. : Sanchez better. 7. Ryan Dempster [TABLE=class: data] [TR=class: label] IP W-L SV ERA Ks BB [/TR] [TR=class: row1 textRight] [TD=align: left]171.1 [/TD] [TD=align: left]8-9 [/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left]4.57 [/TD] [TD=align: left]157 [/TD] [TD=align: left]79 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] This is a tough one to compare. I think he wouldn't have signed here either, but who knows with Nolasco agreeing to come here this offseason. Correia has a bit lower ERA and more innings pitched as well as much lower walks. Dempster kills him in K's though. I could honestly see it swinging either way, but I'm going to go Correia here because in our situation, we'd of been the same with Dempster or Correia. TR got better bang for his buck. : Correia better.

It looks like from either a bogus or misinformed Twitter account that the fake rumor of Hughes being close to the Twins on a 2 year deal was squashed today quickly. Darren Wolfson said it was much more realistic Hughes would sign a 1 year make good deal vs. 2 years. Doogie also said if Hughes was offered Nolasco money for 3-4 years, he'd take it. It also looks like from tweets that the Twins are still in on Arroyo but the Mets and a few other teams are jumping in too. My apologies for no links as I'm typing on my phone and felt like getting a discussion topic started. From what I read, the Twins want to buy 400 innings for next year. 200 are bought with Nolasco. It seems Arroyo might be more durable than Hughes for 200 next year. However, Hughes is ten years younger and has more upside. What would you do and why? Arroyo is durable, but I'd go for Hughes. I even somewhat hope the Twins are a crazy team that offers him 3 years at Nolasco money (average the same per year ... just less years) so we can buy out his 20's and see what happens? What are your preferences? Which SP and for how long? Doesn't it feel great we can discuss FA like this and one of these players will most likely happen AFTER we made a big acquisition already? I love it!