Jurickson Profar

[AlwaysinModeration]

I don't know if this topic has come up elsewhere, but what are the chances of the Twins making a move for Jurickson Profar? I think there are several reasons he could make sense for the Twins.

 

1) The Twins could have a space for him at shortstop, whereas he has bounced all over the place with Texas. Even moreso if the Twins trade Dozier,

Polanco slides into 2B. Escobar, in my opinion, is best suited for a bench middle IF role.

 

2) The Twins new GM, Thad Levine, should be quite familiar with him, and has a working relationship with John Daniels to get this done.

 

3) Profar was a former elite prospect, ranked at the top or near the top of all of the prospect lists. His minor league stats are about 280/360/440. While he hasn't hit at the level at the majors, his track record should come forward at the majors soon. And he was up at 19 and 20 before losing two years to injuries, so he hasn't really had a chance to establish himself in the bigs.

While 800+OPS might be expecting a lot, he should definitely be able to settle in at 750+.

 

4) He can play all over the field, and has. This may have hurt his ability to establish his true hitting level (who knows), but it certainly doesn't hurt having someone of his flexibility on the roster. For example, I could see him taking some starts at 3B to spell Sano.

 

5) While he has been in the majors since he was 19, he is still young / hasn't hit his prime. He will be 24 this year, and in his first year of arbitration eligibility. He would be under control through 2020, meaning the Twins would get him through his prime years.

 

Now, I don't know how good his defense is at shortstop, and I think he is prone to some mental gaffes on the field (I seem to recall Texas being frustrated with him.).

 

We also have a shortstop prospect coming back up in Nick Gordon. However, he is at least a year to two years away. And if, come 2019, the Twins had too many good shortstop options than they know what to do with, that would be the first time in...forever. I would be ok with that potential problem.

 

I speculated about trading for Profar last year at the deadline, but in some ways, it makes even more sense now, with the Texas connection in our Front Office, and a new regime looking to reshape things.

 

What would it take to get Profar? What would Texas want? I have to believe he would be cheaper now than he was a few years ago. The most obvious idea that comes to mind is Ervin Santana. Is that what it would take? I would certainly make that move. Or would the Twins need to trade a prospect like a Gonsalves or a (Texan?) Kohl Stewart? Would Kiriloff for Profar be a possibility? How about a package around Kyle Gibson?

 

Anyway, I think this should be an area of exploration for the Twins, and I welcome thoughts on it.

[beckmt]

From MLBtraderumors reports I have seen, Texas wants too much for him.  I would look at it if it were a buy low(Gibson and lottery ticket) opportunity, but Texas seems to want much more for him(like in the range of still an elite prospect), which he may no longer be.  I would kick the tires, but not expect price to be in my range.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would LOVE this move. I do think he could be a good shortstop for 2017, and then move forward otherwise. I don't know what it would take (I would absolutely do Ervin for him, but I would think Texas would want more, so I'd be open to listening) but he would be a great bargain and a solid young player to build around here.

[Thrylos]

Not sure that Profar is not Florimon2.0.  Minor league numbers cannot help you hit a major league breaking ball.  And the least the Twins need right now is a no-hit average glove SS.  His career bWAR is 0.  AKA replacement level.  

 

I'd take Polanco & Escobar & Gordon & Javier.  Thank you.

[HitInAPinch]

Texas asked for Joe Ross from the Nat's. 

According to BR, Profar's WAR is 0.0 and slightly below.  That makes him 'reserve level'. 

IMO:  even though Profar can be exciting [in both good and bad ways] I just don't think he's a "need" for the Twins right now. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Not sure that Profar is not Florimon2.0.  Minor league numbers cannot help you hit a major league breaking ball.  And the least the Twins need right now is a no-hit average glove SS.  His career bWAR is 0.  AKA replacement level.  

 

I'd take Polanco & Escobar & Gordon & Javier.  Thank you.

 

Profar is an interesting case study though. He was the #1 prospect in the minors across baseball for at least 2 years, and hasn't played all that much in the last couple due mostly to injury. To compare him to Florimon is extreme, I believe, but to assume he will be a star may also be a bit much at this time.

 

Last year, in limited time (90 games and 307 at bats) he hit 239/321/338. His walk rate was still good (9.8%) and his strikeout rate was just under 20%. Even then, he graded out well defensively, even though most of his time was at 3B, 1B and in the outfield, compared to SS.

 

He will turn 24 in February. That means he is still younger than most regulars (Polanco is 5 months younger) and he has a pedigree that most others don't. It's arguable if Polanco, Escobar, Gordon and for sure Javier can play SS at the major league level, and it absolutely still is for Profar. If the Twins made a move for him, I'd have to believe it is because Thad Levine knows something about him that would be worth taking a shot.

 

Still, man, to compare him to Florimon. You don't see that as silly in any way?

 

 

 

[wavedog]

I live in Texas Rangers territory so I have seen him since he has come up.  I think most of you have it nailed - he has potential but not worth the asking price from the Rangers.  He had a serious shoulder injury - torn labrum which cost him large portions of the 2014-2015 seasons - so he has not played much SS the past 3 years so a bit of unknown whether he could play full time there - Levine would know best though.   He started out last season hitting well but fell off the cliff toward the end of the 2nd half of last season.   The Rangers need a player like him so the fact they are trying to sell high is enough for me to say no thanks.   If it were a buy low deal it might be worth the chance.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

 

Texas asked for Joe Ross from the Nat's. 

According to BR, Profar's WAR is 0.0 and slightly below.  That makes him 'reserve level'. 

IMO:  even though Profar can be exciting [in both good and bad ways] I just don't think he's a "need" for the Twins right now. 

 

According to that report, Texas asked for Ross, and the Nats refused.  So what do the Twins have that is equivalent or slightly less than Joe Ross?  Minors track record:  7.4K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.25WHIP, 3.63 ERA.

 

[Linus]

I think he is proof that when to bring a guy to the big leagues isn't an easy decision. Half his control is gone and nobody really knows what he is.

 

As far as a trade I pass. Shoulder problem and only 3 years control plus the mystery of how good a SS is he.

[DocBauer]

He would be intriguing absolutely and a potential steal. But I agree he is a real question mark. He is a buy low or at best/worst a buy average player.

 

I feel Santana is best dealt fir a couple quality prospects. But if the Rangers need another quality pitcher, I could see something like this happening. But otherwise, I'd pass and look to FA for another useful infielder for depth/ options.

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmm....if the price reflected his fallen prospect status, I'd be all over it. But, from what we read, the price still assumes he's a top young player. I'd pass on those prices.

 

but, he's the exact kind of guy a rebuilding team should try to find, former top prospects who have been somewhat derailed by injury, who still have high ceilings. Take a flyer or three on those.

 

OTOH, at some point, production becomes more important than "stuff"....I don't think we are there yet with him, but another year or two....

[LoDJohn]

Not really on the same topic, but I have been on a serious Billy Hamilton kick lately once I heard his name mentioned about a month ago.  Is that someone you would want to see leading off?  Could Buxton play left?  

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Not really on the same topic, but I have been on a serious Billy Hamilton kick lately once I heard his name mentioned about a month ago.  Is that someone you would want to see leading off?  Could Buxton play left?  

 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

 

Still, man, to compare him to Florimon. You don't see that as silly in any way?

 

Feel free to compare him to any replacement level player. 

 

Danny Santana might be better comparable:

 

Career: 
Florimon: 6 seasons, 2.4 bWAR, 0.4 bWAR/season,  0.6 fWAR, 0.1 fWAR/season
Profar: 3 seasons, 0.0 bWAR, 0 bWAR/season,  0.0 fWAR, 0 fWAR/season
Danny Santana: 3 seasons, 0.4 bWAR, 0.1 bWAR/season, 1.1 fWAR, 0.4 bWAR/season

Santana:  Career: .268/.302/.382
Profar: Career: .239/.321/.338

 

Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor, Ben Grieve, were number 1 overall prospect in baseball once upon a time.  Does not matter. 

 

Would I trade him for Danny Santana?  Sure.  That's about it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

5) While he has been in the majors since he was 19, he is still young / hasn't hit his prime. He will be 24 this year, and in his first year of arbitration eligibility. He would be under control through 2020, meaning the Twins would get him through his prime years.

 

Profar already has over 3 years service time.  He is only controlled through 2019, so 3 more seasons (or 1 more season than Dozier).  (B-Ref says "Free Agent: 2020" but that means he is a free agent for the 2020 season, so club control ends on him after 2019.)

[Vanimal46]

The shiny new prospect appeal of Profar has worn off. If the Rangers want anything of significance for him, then it's an easy no. 

[LoDJohn]

 

 

Is that an "Interesting" or a "What the hell are you bringing that up for?"

[Pardon My Dinger]

Is that an "Interesting" or a "What the hell are you bringing that up for?"

My way of saying "Yes, Buxton can play left, and right for that matter. He often does so whilst also playing center."

[AlwaysinModeration]

Not sure that Profar is not Florimon2.0. Minor league numbers cannot help you hit a major league breaking ball. And the least the Twins need right now is a no-hit average glove SS. His career bWAR is 0. AKA replacement level.

 

I'd take Polanco & Escobar & Gordon & Javier. Thank you.

I don't see the comparison to Florimon at all. Unless you are comparing Florimon to Escobar, that's a decent comp.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Profar already has over 3 years service time. He is only controlled through 2019, so 3 more seasons (or 1 more season than Dozier). (B-Ref says "Free Agent: 2020" but that means he is a free agent for the 2020 season, so club control ends on him after 2019.)

Thanks for the clarification. You are right, I was incorrect.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Feel free to compare him to any replacement level player. 

 

Danny Santana might be better comparable:

 

Career: 
Florimon: 6 seasons, 2.4 bWAR, 0.4 bWAR/season,  0.6 fWAR, 0.1 fWAR/season
Profar: 3 seasons, 0.0 bWAR, 0 bWAR/season,  0.0 fWAR, 0 fWAR/season
Danny Santana: 3 seasons, 0.4 bWAR, 0.1 bWAR/season, 1.1 fWAR, 0.4 bWAR/season

Santana:  Career: .268/.302/.382
Profar: Career: .239/.321/.338

 

Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor, Ben Grieve, were number 1 overall prospect in baseball once upon a time.  Does not matter. 

 

Would I trade him for Danny Santana?  Sure.  That's about it.

 

See, if we are taking a 3 year mlb career, including Santana's amazing (for him) 2014, his career numbers look almost respectable. But, in 2015, Santana was worth -1.4 War, and in 2016 he was worth -.7 war. So he was that much worse than a replacement level player.

 

Plus, Santana in the last 3 years has a walk percentage of 4.4 (2014) 2.2 (2015) and 4.8 in 2016. Profar, for all of his faults, even through his minor league career consistently has a walk rate of at or above 10%.

 

Basically, he is a lot more valuable than Danny Santana, even if he is just a replacement level player. I am curious as to what anyone sees in Santana, to be honest. A fresh start somewhere else may help him, but I don't see how people can argue that he is even replacement level.

[Oxtung]

Outside of their respective organizations I bet Profar and Buxton are valued similarly.  What would you require in return for Buxton?

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Outside of their respective organizations I bet Profar and Buxton are valued similarly.  What would you require in return for Buxton?

 

I don't think this is an accurate statement.

[bluechipper]

 

Outside of their respective organizations I bet Profar and Buxton are valued similarly.  What would you require in return for Buxton?

I don't think they are valued closely at all. Buxton has 2 extra years of control, has no defensive questions, has less injury concern, and has way better overall tools and minor league numbers than Profar.

[bluechipper]

 

Levine should have the inside scoop on Profar and what he would be worth prospect wise. I don't think he has the shiny value he once had. Kind of like Kyle Gibson of the Twins, he Profar is going to need a prove it year to rebuild value if the Rangers are going to trade him.

And he'll probably have to play in a corner outfield spot due to the Rangers talent at his other positions. His bat doesn't profile too well other than at middle infield.

[Oxtung]

 

I don't think they are valued closely at all. Buxton has 2 extra years of control, has no defensive questions, has less injury concern, and has way better overall tools and minor league numbers than Profar.

 

Profar was every bit of the prospect that Buxton was and defensively his only questions are related to Andrus and Odor.  Buxton has his own injury concerns with a play style and DL lists to show for it. I'll grant you Buxton has 2 extra years of control and that is important but how much does that really change a potential trade package? Most players are just entering the league at his age. At worst a team would have 3 years to work out an extension with Profar.

 

Both players were top of the line prospects that now have big questions surrounding their bat and injury concerns. 

[bluechipper]

 

Profar was every bit of the prospect that Buxton was and defensively his only questions are related to Andrus and Odor.  Buxton has his own injury concerns with a play style and DL lists to show for it. I'll grant you Buxton has 2 extra years of control and that is important but how much does that really change a potential trade package? Most players are just entering the league at his age. At worst a team would have 3 years to work out an extension with Profar.

 

Both players were top of the line prospects that now have big questions surrounding their bat and injury concerns. 

Jurickson Profar was the #1 prospect for 1 year, but look at the talent in the rankings behind him and compare that to when Buxton was #1 for 3 years. Profar was a great prospect, but Buxton was at a different level.

 

And 2 extra years of control is a huge factor in trades

 

Profar has done nothing of value on the field for 3 years. To say his value is similar to Byron Buxton's right now is ridiculous..

[diehardtwinsfan]

I thought only our prospects struggled when they hit the majors

 

He's in much the same place that Buxton is in. Still highly valued... not much results. He won't get in a trade what he's worth to the org, so he gets dangled only if Texas is desperate.

[cmoss84]

 

I live in Texas Rangers territory so I have seen him since he has come up.  I think most of you have it nailed - he has potential but not worth the asking price from the Rangers.  He had a serious shoulder injury - torn labrum which cost him large portions of the 2014-2015 seasons - so he has not played much SS the past 3 years so a bit of unknown whether he could play full time there - Levine would know best though.   He started out last season hitting well but fell off the cliff toward the end of the 2nd half of last season.   The Rangers need a player like him so the fact they are trying to sell high is enough for me to say no thanks.   If it were a buy low deal it might be worth the chance.  

How do you think the Rangers view Gallo? I would like to swing something for Profar and Gallo for Santana/Gibson and a couple of our middle tier prospects. I'd be willing to part ways with our best vet pitchers to get those 2. I imagine they haven't given up hope on him yet, just curious on a Texas native's view. Thanks.

[Brandon Warne]

Agree he'd be a good target, but hard to imagine Twins meeting the price. Have mentioned it on Twitter a few times.