Article: Why Rosie Isn't Right

[Jeremy Nygaard]

From the moment the Twins drafted Eddie Rosario in the fourth round of the 2010 draft, I was smitten. Baseball America called him the “best pure hitter” from Puerto Rico and compared him to Bobby Abreu. He had a chance to stick in centerfield with an arm to fit in right field.I paid extra attention to Rosario in his professional debut, because he was teammates with Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco in the GCL (you may have heard of them). Rosario didn’t disappoint. It was he - not Sano - who led the team in home runs. He batted .294 and, yeah, he struck out a bit (13.5%) but also drew a fair amount of walks (7.5%). Rosario also stole 22 bases in 51 games. It was definitely enough to put him on the prospect radar.

 

His star only grew in 2011. Again it was Rosario’s 21 home runs that edged out Sano’s 20 and led the team. His .337 batting average also led the team as did his 17 stolen bases. You know what else he led the team in? Don’t guess. I’ll tell you. Walks. Rosario’s 27 walks paced the team. His walk rate of 9.1% was greater than that of walk-oholic Miguel Sano (7.8%). He led the whole Appy league in triples, home runs (three shy of league record), runs, total bases and slugging percentage and was league co-MVP.

 

He was the best player in a league where his teammates included Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Kennys Vargas and Jorge Polanco. (The latter trio combined to hit four home runs that year.)

 

Rosario exited the season as Baseball America’s #3 prospect in the Twins organization and he was about to make his full-season debut in 2012 with the Beloit Snappers.

 

I had the opportunity to watch the Snappers during a early-season trip and a late-season trip. Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas were monsters, but Eddie Rosario always left an impression on me. I was ready to write his name in pen in the 2-spot in the lineup for the foreseeable future. I didn’t know where he’d end up defensively - he was playing second base at the time - but he was the most impressive minor-league hitter I’d see in all of my visits.

 

But then Tuesday, June 12, 2012 happened.

 

During batting practice that day, Rosario, who was standing along the third base line, was struck between the nose and the mouth by a line drive off the bat of a teammate. He was hospitalized with a broken bone in his face and missed the next six weeks of the season.

 

Rosario still put up impressive numbers for the Snappers on the season: .296/.345/.490 with 32 doubles, four triples and 12 home runs. His walk rate was 7.2% (and actually improved to 7.4% the following season) and his strikeout rate was 16.1%.

 

The splits using the day that Rosario got drilled in the face, though, tell a different story.

 

Pre-drilling in the face walk-rate: 9.9%

Post-drilling in the face walk-rate: 2.5%

Pre-drilling in the face K-rate: 14.1%

Post-drilling in the face K-rate: 19.6%

 

As I mentioned previously, Rosario was able to bounce back in 2013 with an improved walk-rate, but the strikeout rate continued to trend the wrong way (17.6%). The 84-game sample size of the Arizona Fall League showed plenty of the same thing: 3.6% walk-rate and 15.5% K-rate. It was in the AFL that Rosario tested positive for a drug of abuse.

 

In the 1458 plate appearances since returning from the suspension (which, should be noted, has come against higher-quality pitchers as well), Rosario has 59 walks (4.0%) and 308 strikeouts (21.1%).

What’s clear to me is that the Eddie Rosario that fills our screen in 2016 is not the same player that took the line-drive to the face on the summer night in 2012.

 

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[Vanimal46]

So perhaps the answer to our problems is to hit Rosario in the face with another baseball so he can return to the days where he had plate discipline! At least that's what I've learned in the movies.... 

[Seth Stohs]

I saw 6 Snappers games that year, four in May (I believe), and two in July... Sano was impressive in size. Vargas was huge (he was just there the second set of games due to suspension. But Rosario's bat speed was as impressive as anyone I had seen.

 

I'm not at all worried about the 21% K-Rate... That's not bad. But it would be nice to see the walk rate up a little... He'll never get to 8-10%, but if he can go from 4% to 6%, that would be significant. 

[alarp33]

 

 

I'm not at all worried about the 21% K-Rate... That's not bad. But it would be nice to see the walk rate up a little... He'll never get to 8-10%, but if he can go from 4% to 6%, that would be significant. 

 

To be fair, it's more like 24.5% in the Majors... 

 

If he doesn't learn to stop swinging at pitches way outside the zone, I have to imagine that number will climb, as pitchers simply won't throw him strikes.  

[Han Joelo]

Are you suggesting he swings at everything in order to minimize the chance he gets hit in the face again?  The best defense is a good offense?  Actually makes sense.  What the hell, why not.  If you think your life may be on the line, making contact becomes a much more powerful incentive.

[tobi0040]

I am not following the “why”. Do you think that the ball to the face has impacted his vision long term? His biggest issue is a strike zone discipline issue, which I suppose could be brought on via a vision induced recognition issue.

 

But I suspect it is more of the recognition issue and another failure of the Twins to work through that with a player in the minors and gearing him up for MLB success. For example, in 2014 he started in high A, went to AA, and then the fall league. He compiled a .674 OPS with a .286 OBP across 350 AB’s. Based on those numbers he started 2015 in AAA and was with the Twins in early May.

[clutterheart]

 

What’s clear to me is that the Eddie Rosario that fills our screen in 2016 is not the same player that took the line-drive to the face on the summer night in 2012.

 

You're placing the blame on on his free swinging ways on a hit to the face in 2012?

That's ridiculous.

 

Why not where it belongs?  On the Twins player development staff and himself

[Boom Boom]

I won't do the research myself, but are we sure that Rosario's declining strike-zone discipline doesn't correlate to his drug of abuse suspension?

 

Maybe he needs the weed.

[tobi0040]

I just re-read the article and had a chuckle about the early comp to Bobby Abreu. His career .395 OPB, 18% k rate and 14% BB rate could not be more of a polar opposite to Eddie Rosario

[ashbury]

Are you suggesting he swings at everything in order to minimize the chance he gets hit in the face again?  The best defense is a good offense?  Actually makes sense.  What the hell, why not.  If you think your life may be on the line, making contact becomes a much more powerful incentive.

That was in fact the advice a hitting instructor gave to our 8 year old son, who had become afraid of the ball after being hit (square in the back, leaving marks of the stitching ) by a pitched ball. He told him the best way to deal with a pitch right at you is to put the bat on the ball.

 

I had never heard such advice and was skeptical. It probably contains a kernel of truth, but I think most people still are best served to dive back.

[ScrapTheNickname]

I never heard the hit in the face by a baseball story regarding Rosario. Thanks for sharing, Jeremy.

 

My brother when he was about 8 got a pitched ball in the face because he was standing in the batter's box looking for a sign from the third base coach. He never played another game. When on to a success career as a face transplant surgeon. The sentence before this one is a lie. The others are true.

[Loosey]

Or the splits got worse because the competition got better. . . .

[Thrylos]

Carl Crawford is a good comparable (minus his crazy early speed.)  He barely walked in his Rays' years.  And he was alright.  As long as he puts the ball in play at a .300+ clip, I see no issues

[Yossarian]

Correlation isn't causation. I watched Rosario lean across the plate to wave at what would've been ball four the other night. A defensive, traumatized hitter doesn't do that. One might look at MLB daily meal money allowances versus those in the minors and correlate increased meal money to increased strikeouts, i.e., Rosario got greedy as he progressed to MLB. BS, too.

[troyhobbs]

He's still better than Buxton and the best CF option in the system. At least he's got the talent, hopefully the discipline comes in time.

[tobi0040]

Carl Crawford is a good comparable (minus his crazy early speed.)  He barely walked in his Rays' years.  And he was alright.  As long as he puts the ball in play at a .300+ clip, I see no issues

Crawford struck out a lot less and swung at balls outside the zone less after his first season.

 

In his first 4.5 years he had 14.7%, 15.4%, 12.1%, and 12.2% k rates. His o swing was 42%, 36%, 33%, and 33%.

 

Eddie’s k rates have been 24.9% and 23.8%, o swing’s 47.1% and 46.1%. Eddie had some luck the first year and benefitted from a smaller sample in his first year. If he doesn’t drastically cut down on the o-swing like Crawford did he simply will be getting himself out and not see any pitches to hit. The book is out on him. Why throw a strike when he will swing at every other pitch out of the zone?

[Vanimal46]

 

Or the splits got worse because the competition got better. . . .

There may be something about this getting hit in the face thing... Have we forgotten about Henry Rowengartner? Pre catastrophic arm injury in the schoolyard he was a middling OF for a 14 year old town ball team. Post catastrophic arm injury in the schoolyard: 115 IP, 1.65 ERA, 14 K/9. Who's with me on hitting some liners towards Rosario?! 

Or... you know, you're probably right. 

[troyhobbs]

 

Crawford struck out a lot less and swung at balls outside the zone less after his first season.

In his first 4.5 years he had 14.7%, 15.4%, 12.1%, and 12.2% k rates. His o swing was 42%, 36%, 33%, and 33%.

Eddie’s k rates have been 24.9% and 23.8%, o swing’s 47.1% and 46.1%. Eddie had some luck the first year and benefitted from a smaller sample in his first year. If he doesn’t drastically cut down on the o-swing like Crawford did he simply will be getting himself out and not see any pitches to hit. The book is out on him. Why throw a strike when he will swing at every other pitch out of the zone?

He played in 122 games last year, almost had 500 ABs and his stats are nearly identical from last year's "smaller sample size" to this year.  Slightly improved actually, which is progress, slight but progress none the less.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd argue those are the same k rates and o swing rates, well within the margin of error, as it were, to judge his  process. IMO, he needs to figure out that o rate, I don't know how well that can be taught, or not.

[alarp33]

 

Crawford struck out a lot less and swung at balls outside the zone less after his first season.

In his first 4.5 years he had 14.7%, 15.4%, 12.1%, and 12.2% k rates. His o swing was 42%, 36%, 33%, and 33%.

Eddie’s k rates have been 24.9% and 23.8%, o swing’s 47.1% and 46.1%. Eddie had some luck the first year and benefitted from a smaller sample in his first year. If he doesn’t drastically cut down on the o-swing like Crawford did he simply will be getting himself out and not see any pitches to hit. The book is out on him. Why throw a strike when he will swing at every other pitch out of the zone?

 

Crawford was also in his 5th season in the Majors by the time he was Rosario's current age.  

[Pardon My Dinger]

I got hit in the face with the ball playing soccer when I was 12. Never did turn pro. These things happen, I'm afraid.

[tobi0040]

He played in 122 games last year, almost had 500 ABs and his stats are nearly identical from last year's "smaller sample size" to this year.  Slightly improved actually, which is progress, slight but progress none the less.

I was thinking last year was the 80 game suspension year. The frustrating thing for me is if he can hit .270'ish while swinging this wildly, he could be a very good, borderline elite player if he reined in his srike zone discipline. He would walk more and get better pitches to drive.

[jimbo92107]

I don't think Rosario's problems at the plate are physical or psychological. I think after he came back from injury and his suspension, he decided his fastest route to the bigs was to get more aggressive at the plate. 

 

Rosie did indeed get to the bigs quickly, based a lot on Paul Molitor's admiration of his swing and his generally aggressive attitude towards playing baseball. 

 

Now that we have all seen what Rosario can do, the question is how he will evolve as a player. Twins sent him down for a while to narrow his swing zone to match the strike zone, and so far that has worked pretty well. He is now getting into better counts more often, and it's paying off with better pitches to hit. Molitor doesn't want Rosario to go full Grossman, trying to squeeze a walk out of every at bat. Rosie's got game-changing pop that they want somewhere in the middle of the order. 

 

What I'm seeing is Rosario and the Twins looking for an optimal balance between aggressiveness and patience at the plate. He's not going to dominate at the mlb level the way he did in the low minors, but he can still be a star. I think Rosario wants to be a Bryce Harper type player. I don't think he's that far off from accomplishing that lofty goal. 

[alarp33]

Holy cow, you lost me at the last line.  You don't think he's that far off from being a Bryce Harper type? 

 

Is there perhaps a different Bryce Harper I'm not aware of? One that didn't win the MVP while hitting .330/.460/.649 with 42 home runs at age 22

Edited August 10, 2016 by alarp33

[tobi0040]

I'd argue those are the same k rates and o swing rates, well within the margin of error, as it were, to judge his  process. IMO, he needs to figure out that o rate, I don't know how well that can be taught, or not.

If we only had a left handed veteran with great plate discipline, around another three years or so to discuss hitting.....

 

Or a coach who struck out 10.2% of the time during a 21 year, HOF career.

[gil4]

How long has he been using that extremely closed stance?  I guess what he's been doing sort of works, I guess (apart from the 4 Ks last night), but I'd like to see him change that up in an attempt to find something that really works.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Holy cow, you lost me at the last line.  You don't think he's that far off from being a Bryce Harper type? 

 

Is there perhaps a different Bryce Harper I'm not aware of? One that didn't win the MVP while hitting .330/.460/.649 with 42 home runs at age 22

Hold on, now. If you read closely, you can pinpoint where Jimbo loses momentum. He clearly took one on the beak towards the end of that post, and the poor guy just hasn't been the same. 

 

 

[Jarends703]

I don't think Jeremy's intent was to blame the ball to the face for Rosario's approach.  In general, looking at splits is interesting because we think it is telling us something about a specific change.  In this instance a ball to the face seems less arbitrary than say May 1 or June 15.  But, there are too many other variables to consider this as the definitive change that resulted in the current version of Rosario.  

 

It seems to me the Twins have valued BA above other offensive statistics for a long time.  I'm sure that played into Rosario's change as much as anything. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I got hit in the face with the ball playing soccer when I was 12. Never did turn pro. These things happen, I'm afraid.

You poor thing. How did you cope knowing that your future Olympic destiny as a soccer player was ruined because of a ball hitting you in the face?

[troyhobbs]

 

I was thinking last year was the 80 game suspension year. The frustrating thing for me is if he can hit .270'ish while swinging this wildly, he could be a very good, borderline elite player if he reined in his srike zone discipline. He would walk more and get better pitches to drive.

Agreed. Dude can drive balls that are over the plate no doubt. It is frustrating watching him flair at terrible pitches.