Article: Buxton Stalls Out, Again

[HitInAPinch]

 

Maybe someone has mentioned this, but who has the greater WAR, Buxton or Santana? 

 

Buxton goes down to AAA and dominates it again. And nothing is learned by anyone. Play him everyday in the majors. How is this even remotely difficult to understand with a team struggling for 70 wins?

I haven't read far enough to see if someone responded to "greater WAR", but here it is according to FanGraphs:

 

Buxton:       Off:  -10.5   Def:   4.6    WAR:   0.2

D. Santana:  Off :  -7.1  Def:   -3.3   WAR:   -0.3

 

According to FanGraphs:  Using WAR properly is difficult because it requires you to think more abstractly than some other aspects of life. The exact number is not as important as the basic range, but this isn’t just true of WAR. This is the case with all statistics in all parts of the game.

 

FanGraphs scale says:  Scrub  0-1 WAR

So either one = Not good, WAR-wise.

[Taildragger8791]

People act like a little patience is all that was needed for Carlos Gomez, but he didn't click until his 7th year in the majors and his 3rd team. He also hasn't been very good since he left Milwaukee. I seriously hope the Twins can apply some lessons learned to avoid that slow of development again.

 

Everyone remarked about how rushed Gomez was at the time and how it set him back. It follows that using AAA is appropriate considering Buxton has spent less than a season between AA and AAA. I don't understand how we went from worrying about rushing guys to wanting every talented player in the majors today, sink or swim.

 

Patience is required since there is no other option and he's still really young. Maybe it'll click in a year or two. But how long can a club wait? Gomez was mentioned a lot so I ask this: If you had the knowledge right now that it will take another 5 years of poor hitting before you get to enjoy about 3-4 great years, is that a process you want to calmly wait through? I envision this board and the fans getting awfully restless well before then.

 

Edit: Typo

Edited August 8, 2016 by Taildragger8791

[HitInAPinch]

Buxton needs to drink more alcohol.  I can help with that. 

[tobi0040]

If I had to boil down the struggles the last six years it would be:

 

We struggle developing talent

 

And we use a lot of high picks on raw, athletic, high school players.

 

It is a really bad combination.

[Willihammer]

With Gomez the Twins and Gardy had a preconceived idea that since was fast, he should be a slap hitter. But that's not who he was. Read the Dozier article on fangraphs. Finding out who you are as a hitter is important. Its still not clear to me what kind of hitter Buxton is, I doubt he knows. I suspect he is more of a slugger than a Revere, Willy Mays Hayes type, but less than Gomez. Right now the Twins seem to be molding him into a power/speed combo with a long swing and a lot of bunting, and neither of them is working.

[alarp33]

Buxton has looked terrible. 

Buxton is still really young.

The sample size is still really small.

Why do we keep hearing Chad Allen's name as someone who can work with and fix his swing. What in the hell is Brunansky paid to do?

Why is the Manager more concerned about leaking character flaws of Sano to the media, then working with Buxton to try to ease his adjustment to MLB pitching?

When is a better time to learn to hit MLB pitching then August of a lost season?

Enough bunt talk. 

[ashbury]

Buxton's career AAA slash is .357 .415 .585, an OPS of an even 1.000

 

Not sure it's AAA he needs.

What he needs is the .500 and .369 BABIPs he was enjoying in 2015 and 2016 at AAA.

[d-mac]

 

Coaching?  Who is there to help him.  His MiLB stats, his continual ranking as the number one prospect were not just because of optimistic Twins fans.  The scouts, the people who should know and do the rankings are not usually this wrong.  So beyond Buxton, what the hell is happening?  

 

They've gotten it wrong before and will again. The dustbin of baseball is full of "can't miss prospects" that missed. 

[tobi0040]

They are going to likely make some tweak. Three or four weeks later he will be hitting AAA pitching like he always has and they will call him back up. First it was the toe tap for timing. Smalley keeps saying they were working on keeping his head still. Some think we need to shorten his swing. He tries pulling breaking balls down and away, so he still has a recognition issue. And he seems to foul off strike one and two and start 0-2 constantly. I would like to see a new hitting coach work with him.

 

Call me completely crazy here, but wouldn’t Molitor in theory be someone that would be beneficial to work through these issues with? He had an extremely low k rate throughout his career. He didn’t have much power (averaged about 10 HR a year) and he relied on his speed for 2B, 3B, and stole a ton of bases. Isn’t a successful Buxton going to look an awful lot like Molitor, although the k rate will never approach Paul’s based on what I have seen of Buxton.

[d-mac]

 

Maybe someone has mentioned this, but who has the greater WAR, Buxton or Santana? 

 

Buxton goes down to AAA and dominates it again. And nothing is learned by anyone. Play him everyday in the majors. How is this even remotely difficult to understand with a team struggling for 70 wins?

 

D. Santana career fWAR: +1.6

Buxton career fWAR: -0.4

[Everyday Eddy]

 

They are going to likely make some tweak. Three or four weeks later he will be hitting AAA pitching like he always has and they will call him back up. First it was the toe tap for timing. Smalley keeps saying they were working on keeping his head still. Some think we need to shorten his swing. He tries pulling breaking balls down and away, so he still has a recognition issue. And he seems to foul off strike one and two and start 0-2 constantly. I would like to see a new hitting coach work with him.

Call me completely crazy here, but wouldn’t Molitor in theory be someone that would be beneficial to work through these issues with? He had an extremely low k rate throughout his career. He didn’t have much power (averaged about 10 HR a year) and he relied on his speed for 2B, 3B, and stole a ton of bases. Isn’t a successful Buxton going to look an awful lot like Molitor, although the k rate will never approach Paul’s based on what I have seen of Buxton.

Having been good at a sport doesn't make one a good coach at said sport.   Not saying he couldn't be a great coach, but having been good at a sport is not a good predictor of being a successful coach/manager

[tobi0040]

D. Santana career fWAR: +1.6

Buxton career fWAR: -0.4

Santana has 925 PA's and Buxton has 356.

 

After his BABIP driven 4 WAR season in 2014, Santana has -2.6 WAR in his last 500 AB. He has no place on an MLB roster.

[d-mac]

 

Is everyone who's commenting on/being the author of this article for real right now?  You even gave us the stat that he has had 350 MLB plate appearances...that's equivalent to 85 games, HALF A SEASON!! Get a freaking grip people. There's no way any player should be expected, highly touted or not, to be the next Ken Griffey Jr. after one half a full season at the top level. Give him a full year, hell give him 2 or 3 full seasons, before you write this kid off as done.

 

Griffey Jr had a wRC+ of 106 (6% better than league average offense in 1989, 506 PAs) his rookie season. Buxton has a career wRC+ of 49 in 356 PAs, 70% of Griffey's first year, with offense that his less than half of league average. 

 

Yes, most superstars don't come up and become superstars day one. But most are at least productive major league players from day 1. Buxton's struggles are historically bad: Since the end of WWII, there are 3,386 non-pitchers with at least 350 PAs in the majors. Buxton's career 49 wRC+ is tied with 15 other players for 74th(!) worst. That's bad. 

[d-mac]

 

For a fan base that wants to start seeing things done right, there sure are a lot of people that want to keep doing things wrong with this kid.   He was pushed way way way too fast by a desperate FO and set up to fail.   Now he needs to be given time take a step back and reset and be given time to develop at the proper pace.   He could be in the minors for 2 or 3 more years before he figures it out.  Being hot for a few months at AAA does not mean you're ready for the majors.  Hopefully whatever GM is brought in handles the situation well

 

Bingo. 

[alarp33]

 

 

Yes, most superstars don't come up and become superstars day one. But most are at least productive major league players from day 1. Buxton's struggles are historically bad: Since the end of WWII, there are 3,386 non-pitchers with at least 350 PAs in the majors. Buxton's career 49 wRC+ is tied with 15 other players for 74th(!) worst. That's bad. 

 

Using a career stat to backup a point about the start of a career doesn't really work or have any meaning.  

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think people realize just how bad Buxton has been ..... 

[markos]

August Fagerstrom at Fangraphs wrote about the evolution of Buxton's swing today:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changes-byron-buxton-has-and-hasnt-made/

 

Several shout-outs to Parker's previous work.

[Mike Sixel]

 

August Fagerstrom at Fangraphs wrote about the evolution of Buxton's swing today:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changes-byron-buxton-has-and-hasnt-made/

 

Several shout-outs to Parker's previous work.

 

"Among 363 batters who have batted at least 300 times since the beginning of last season, just three have a lower wRC+ than Buxton’s mark of 49."

[d-mac]

 

Santana has 925 PA's and Buxton has 356.

After his BABIP driven 4 WAR season in 2014, Santana has -2.6 WAR in his last 500 AB. He has no place on an MLB roster.

 

Correct, but Buxton doesn't have place on an MLB roster either. He's an offensive blackhole. 

[alarp33]

 

I don't think people realize just how bad Buxton has been ..... 

 

I think everyone does.  Some just choose to doom his career based off the 1st 350 plate appearances, and some look at a bigger picture

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think everyone does.  Some just choose to doom his career based off the 1st 350 plate appearances, and some look at a bigger picture

 

We'll disagree......on the first part, not the second part.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There should be no pressure on him up here. There is no pennant race. 

 

collecting and keeping a major league pay check has it's own kind of pressure... the kind that makes someone press and develop bad habits, especially when they aren't good at things like pitch recognition.

[d-mac]

 

Using a career stat to backup a point about the start of a career doesn't really work or have any meaning.  

 

I think with survivor bias, most hitters that are this atrocious aren't going to get a whole bunch of second chances to prove themselves. My thought is that it's mostly a non issue in this circumstance. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Was Carlos Gomez the number 1 prospect in all of baseball at any time?

 

No, but Delmon Young was... that ranking is not a reason to rush someone who isn't ready.

[d-mac]

 

I think everyone does.  Some just choose to doom his career based off the 1st 350 plate appearances, and some look at a bigger picture

 

I don't think everyone does. Very few hitters that are this bad to start their career, ever become productive players. 

[alarp33]

 

I don't think everyone does. Very few hitters that are this bad to start their career, ever become productive players. 

 

Ok. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, but Delmon Young was... that ranking is not a reason to rush someone who isn't ready.

 

Hey, I wanted him down longer when he was sent down last time, don't look at me with those words (as it were).....

[Kwak]

How  ma years does a guy have to fail before the story changes from "he was rushed" to "he just isn't good enough"?

[alarp33]

 

I think with survivor bias, most hitters that are this atrocious aren't going to get a whole bunch of second chances to prove themselves. My thought is that it's mostly a non issue in this circumstance. 

 

Ok. But your stat doesn't prove that, it proves that Buxton's 350 at bats have been very bad.  It doesn't show anything about predicting which you are deducting 

[Craig Arko]

 

How  ma years does a guy have to fail before the story changes from "he was rushed" to "he just isn't good enough"?

42.