Twins should be buyers this offseason

[AZTwin]

I know, I know. We're going to finish with one of the worst records in baseball this year. Why should we be buyers? Well, for one I would argue it's the log jam of prospects on our 40 man roster combined with the youth of the team. We have prospects entering their age 23-26 season that just can't break it. I think we should try to unload those types for a quality starter. In my opinion they are valuable pieces but more quantity than quality. We have a lot of quantity guys but need more quality. Could Gibson, Vargas, Walker, Reed land a top 2 type SP? Thoughts?

 

And of course I am all for selling dozier as well....

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think that package would get a legit no.2 starter, at least not one on the right side of his prime.

 

I think Chris Archer is probably a good example of a young legit no. 2 stater.

There is no way that Tampa even considers that package.

They'd likely want something like Berrios, Jay/Gonsalves, Polanco and a lotto ticket or two to start discussions.

[mikelink45]

Since we had a team take Nolasco - nothing is too ridiculous.  I agree that we should use our numbers to get down to the 25 best players who fit together to make a team. 

[ashbury]

Since we had a team take Nolasco - nothing is too ridiculous.

The Angels traded for Meyer. Nolasco was the albatross they had to accept to swing that deal.

 

As for the topic, I agree with the view that a package of questionable prospects and so-so major leaguers isn't going to nab somebody's established starting pitcher. That kind of package might pry loose a stud single-A prospect, if a contending team feels those pieces contribute to their 2017 chances.

 

But the dilemma is always, if they want those young pieces, why don't we at this stage in our rebuild, and if we don't want them, why should they?

 

I am in favor of making the attempt, though.

[Jham]

I'm holding bullish on Gibson right now.  I don't know what his trade value is, but I like his chances more than the chances of his probable return.  

 

Also, why would any team intentionally downgrade their rotation in order to obtain Vargas and ABW3?  No team is going to trade a number 2 for quantity of return.  Including Dozier, Buxton, Sano, or Kepler would be our only real shot.  Projects and upside may return a piece, an expensive mid-rotation guy, or a bottom rotation type.  But what's the point?  I'm more in favor of some prospect swappage at this point to try to get some guys that are a little further away.  

 

We could also get a back up catcher.  Perhaps Palka for a Chris Herman type.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

If they want a legit number 2, it needs to be someone with a lot of control left, and that also means they need to sell on some of their other pitchers.

 

These are the pitchers they have going for 5 spots:

Guaranteed: Santana, Gibson, probably Berrios

Most likely: Duffey

In the mix: Hughes, May, Mejia, Dean, Wheeler, Milone.

 

I'm fine with adding a number 2 to the mix if said number 2 is under control for a minimum of 3 years, preferably 4.  But that gets expensive, and you might be able to get rid of one of those guys listed as a thrown in, but in reality, people need to get moved. The other problem is that a team trading said number 2 obviously doesn't have contention planned in the near future, so they are going to want guys like Gordon and Gonsalves to likely headline that trade.

 

I think in reality, the Twins would be better off developing their own potential 2s in guys like Berrios, Gonsalves, and potentially May. No reason Berrios and May cannot be in the rotation opening day with Gonsalves likely forcing it at some point next season.

 

edit:  side note, but Santana right now is a 2.  I'd love to get 4 more pitchers of that caliber in the rotation, but the real reality is that it makes more sense to develop them than to trade for them.

[mazeville]

I'm not sure I'd want the team to be a "buyer" in the strictest sense of the word. But this team desperately needs to be reconfigured. So trading guys at logjam positions -- uh, 1B/DH, anyone? -- for major league ready players at weaker areas (SP/RP, C). 

 

I'd like to see Plouffe traded in August. One of either Byung Ho Park or Kennys Vargas, preferably Park. And I'd trade Dozier — the one player who could really fetch a nice return. 

 

Heck, you could trade Park AND Vargas given the presence of Palka and AB Walker in AAA. Regardless, this team needs to shed some of its DH types.

[Mr. Brooks]

If they want a legit number 2, it needs to be someone with a lot of control left, and that also means they need to sell on some of their other pitchers.

 

These are the pitchers they have going for 5 spots:

Guaranteed: Santana, Gibson, probably Berrios

Most likely: Duffey

In the mix: Hughes, May, Mejia, Dean, Wheeler, Milone.

 

I'm fine with adding a number 2 to the mix if said number 2 is under control for a minimum of 3 years, preferably 4. But that gets expensive, and you might be able to get rid of one of those guys listed as a thrown in, but in reality, people need to get moved. The other problem is that a team trading said number 2 obviously doesn't have contention planned in the near future, so they are going to want guys like Gordon and Gonsalves to likely headline that trade.

 

I think in reality, the Twins would be better off developing their own potential 2s in guys like Berrios, Gonsalves, and potentially May. No reason Berrios and May cannot be in the rotation opening day with Gonsalves likely forcing it at some point next season.

You forgetting Santiago, or do you expect him to get moved?

[Rosterman]

It's not like a lot of guys on the current 20-man are on wanted posters in the offices of other team general managers. Escbar? Rosario? Vargas? Park? Even Dozier? Gibson has little value. Most of the bullpen are replacement quality guys who are being given a chance to flourish.

 

Where the Twins have to make the hardcore decision is that next crop...get them some big league exposure and hope they don't tank, for a run at 2018. Really. We are far from a trade away from competing in 2017.

 

But the Twins have to ask if there is room for Jorge, Stewart, Cederoth, Gonsalves, Stewart, Berrios and any number of other potential starters who could be in the majors in 2017-19. Who stays. Who is dangled. Who is packaged. Also, we seem to have a lot of middle infielders in the wings - Cabbage and Blankenship, all those shortstops beginning with Gordon. We have some sluggers: Palka, Walker, but no place to play them...and will this year's drafting class make it to the majors in 2019?

 

The harder decision the Twins have to make is the decision on the direction they want the team to go. Like many of the players currently on the 25-man (or 40-man) roster, teams can just sit back and see who the Twins are forced to release. They will also be sitting back and seeing who the Twins can't protect in the Rule 5 in the future, or who are on the cusp of becoming minor league free agents, and can be had for little or nothing (as the current crop of Milone, Plouffe probably, Suzuki, maybe Danny Santana, any of the bullpen arms like Boshers).

 

It was making a smart move like they did with Alex Meyer. For all his potential, he had another lost year and his chances of fitting anywhere in the Twins roster next season were probably slim to none. Not as a starter for sure, they would want him to do more at Rochester. He can easily be replaced by other bullpen prospects. He needed a roster space and considering the Twins will have to carry both Perkins and Hughes into next season, it was a good move. Even if the Twins don't keep Santiago, they can also claim some salary relief, and still have an okay potential pitching prospect that they don't have to worry about for another season.

 

It will be interesting to see who comes up and is added in September. Who goes to the Fall League. Who is added (and subtracted) in November. Who gets spring training invites.

[brvama]

Agree with the others that the Vargas, ABW-types won't enhance much on trades for a top SP.  IMHO, I think these players need to be swapped for similar players blocked on other clubs that would improve our positions that is lacking depth. or taking flyers on younger pitching.  But the Twins do need to move a couple of these guys this off-season.

[HitInAPinch]

You want to trade, what?, for a #2 MLB starter? 

 

Isn't there some pencils or an abacus in the office supply cabinet you could include?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You forgetting Santiago, or do you expect him to get moved?

 

You're right... I forgot him. He's definitely in the mix. I'm a bit surprised the Angels sold low there as I'd have thought someone would give up something for him. He's not a great pitcher, but a pretty consistent 4/5 guy.  He's a non-tender candidate much like Milone is this offseason. I would think someone would give up a similar upside guy in the low minors for a sure thing like that. Those 4/5 guys, as much as we rag on them, are pretty useful to most teams.

 

Kind of gets back to my original point though. We need to make room for the kids, not keep guys like Santiago around. My ideal rotation next season is Santana, Gibson, Berrios, May, Duffey. Plenty of upside there, but some expected struggles.

[drivlikejehu]

No. Trades for more established players involve giving up greater talent in exchange for greater current production.

 

The Twins don't have enough excess talent to acquire current production. Trading away core players will leave them in even worse shape than before.

 

Can't be done.

[Riverbrian]

Pitching... If they can acquire pitching... It will determine if they have a shot in 2017. 

 

I'd like them to think outside the box and try get lucky with a Pomeranz type find. 

 

Take a bullpen guy with a good K/9 and see if you can stretch him into a starter. 

 

Give May or Rogers a shot

 

Or Trade for:

 

Shawn Kelley

Vidal Nuno

Derek Law

Luke Hochevar

TYler Thornburg

 

See if one of those guys can handle a starting role. 

 

Think outside the box when it comes to pitching. 

 

 

[DJSim22]

I think I'd buy in a different sense.  Assuming Vargas, ABW, Palko ect are unable to get a return of a major league player, a safe assumption I believe, then I would look for a higher upside 3B at say high A as a trade partner.   Clear up the log jam a bit for someone you don't immediately need on the 40 man roster.

 

Is this reasonable?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm waiting a few weeks to create a "3/4 season" thread but the gist is this:

 

The Twins are who most of us thought they were.

 

They were a combination of terrible and amazingly unlucky to start the first quarter season. Since that time, they're roughly a .500 team. They're similar to last year, though more of the performance is coming from players under 25 years old.

 

That's who we thought they were. A 75-83 win team built on young players.

 

If they finish the season with 70-73 wins, that will mean they played 120 games at a .500 record.

 

A team trending in that direction should start buying players in the offseason. In the Twins' case, that probably means a starter and/or catcher.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd prefer they are both sellers and buyers.  They should be trying to sell (or just plain cut) Trevor Plouffe.  They should be shopping Santana and Dozier.  

 

But they should be buying on arms.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd prefer they are both sellers and buyers. They should be trying to sell (or just plain cut) Trevor Plouffe. They should be shopping Santana and Dozier.

 

But they should be buying on arms.

Yeah, when I say they should buy, that doesn't mean they can't sell at the same time.

 

Depending how Polanco does, Dozier can return a very good prospect. Depending what you can buy/trade this offseason, Santana could be traded without hurting the 2017 team too much.

[jimmer]

What I love about Polanco is that he gets on base a lot and rarely strikes out.  He should consistently be at the top of the order. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

That's who we thought they were. A 75-83 win team built on young players.

If they finish the season with 70-73 wins, that will mean they played 120 games at a .500 record.

A team trending in that direction should start buying players in the offseason. In the Twins' case, that probably means a starter and/or catcher.

 

You can't just throw out the early season results like that, and relying on in-season trend is dangerous as well. The Twins are on a 75-win BaseRuns pace, which is certainly a lot better than their actual record, but on the low end of expectations.

 

Anytime you need significant improvement to get to .500, it's a little early to be talking about the finishing touches.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You can't just throw out the early season results like that, and relying on in-season trend is dangerous as well. The Twins are on a 75-win BaseRuns pace, which is certainly a lot better than their actual record, but on the low end of expectations.

 

Anytime you need significant improvement to get to .500, it's a little early to be talking about the finishing touches.

I don't think it's that simple. I created a new thread about this very subject, please contribute your thoughts.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23492-they-are-who-we-thought-they-were-denny-green-memoriam-thread/