Who Fits Where at the Deadline

[Vanimal46]

Yeah I wouldn't mind selling Gibson next season, but he's taken a step back this season where the value's not there. 

[bird]

 

I think trading May or Gibson would be selling low. You might do that if you were contending for a playoff spot and brought back a piece that help in the second half. May is the kid of buy low guy they might look for when trading a rental in Suzuki.

 

I agree.

 

We don't have a surplus of guys as good as May or Gibson, and I always struggle with ideas about creating new problems via trades. Trade form surplus. We can replace Kintzler, Abad, and Boshers in 2017. Start there, but find out what the market is for practically every player on the roster. If someone gets stupid about Dozier or anyone else who is readily replaceable  in 2017, pull the trigger. But don't start offering up guys who clearly can be part of the near future. That doesn't advance the rebuild one bit.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ironic that you mention Plouffe as a possible non-tender. In the 2010 interview that got Antony so much flak, Antony mentions how easy it would be to non-tender an arb guy who looks like he's becoming a perennial injury risk.  Ahem, that might be Plouffe. We'll see. (though it's unlikely Antony will be the guy to make that decision when it's time).

 

[70charger]

I'd guess Suzuki and Abad go......and the Twins get nothing much.....and everyone is all angsty here, as if there was anything of value they could (or want to) trade....

I'd really like to see more than this but unless we are realistic about what other teams want versus what we want to get rid of, I'm afraid this will be about it.

[Rosterman]

Just remember, whoever has Plouffe will be going to arbitration, most likely, at the $10 million plus level during the offseason. At this point, if I were the Twins, I would keep Nunez and let Plouffe go if I was even thinking about Plouffe as a utility guy.

 

And after reading the above discussion, I'm suddenly feeling the Twins going into next season with Nolasco still in the rotation, just because.

 

Milone is an interesting name that we overlook, because he already went thru waivers once unclaimed. He probably won't again...and August will be THAT decision time. I don't see a reason for the Twins bringing him back in 2017. But I'm not sure anyone is knocking on the door wanting to trade anything for him.

 

Suddenly, you have to start looking at packaging a prospect or two to get total salary relief or a higher prospect return. Is Adam Walker available? Do you cut ties with a Stewart or Landa or Jorge. Any of the shortstops of the future packaged with Noaslco going to make a deal happen. The Twins probably have half a dozen prospects that MAY be blocked in the system and that they have to worry about protecting this off-season or next. If they look to be that 42nd player...package them away.

[wavedog]

I will say with such a demand for pitching from contenders if there was any time we could trade Nolasco this would be it - but I still doubt we will be able to. 

[nicksaviking]

I agree.

 

We don't have a surplus of guys as good as May or Gibson, and I always struggle with ideas about creating new problems via trades. Trade form surplus. We can replace Kintzler, Abad, and Boshers in 2017. Start there, but find out what the market is for practically every player on the roster. If someone gets stupid about Dozier or anyone else who is readily replaceable in 2017, pull the trigger. But don't start offering up guys who clearly can be part of the near future. That doesn't advance the rebuild one bit.

I'd also like to see if Gibson can be changed with a different GM. He has made comments in the past that seemed to imply he was intentionally trying to avoid strikeouts in favor of putting the ball in play. He has good stuff but doesn't seem to use his superior slider and change up to put guys away, almost slways opting for his high contact and poorly rated sinker instead.

 

I'd like to see if a new GM tells him to knock that off. The current crew hasn't.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'd also like to see if Gibson can be changed with a different GM. He has made comments in the past that seemed to imply he was intentionally trying to avoid strikeouts in favor of putting the ball in play. He has good stuff but doesn't seem to use his superior slider and change up to put guys away, almost slways opting for his high contact and poorly rated sinker instead.

I'd like to see if a new GM tells him to knock that off. The current crew hasn't.

Molitor just said again in the pregame interview that Gibson has to stop trying to strike guys out and not be afraid to put the ball in play.

[Jham]

 

Molitor just said again in the pregame interview that Gibson has to stop trying to strike guys out and not be afraid to put the ball in play.

Usually it's a mix...  Like stop picking and falling behind...  but when he's getting crushed it's hard not to...  So it's more like telling him "Hey, be a better more accurate pitcher!"  Like he's not trying...  

Gibson falls into the May paradox, 1st Berrios audition paradox, and the anti-Milone conundrum: accuracy IS stuff.  Bite on the slider means little if you can't locate.  Location means little if you can't spin it or throw it past someone.  Both limit your overall effectiveness.

I wouldn't trade Milone, because I don't trust us to put 6 serviceable starters out there next season, he's relatively cheap for a veteran starting pitcher, he's a perfect money ball guy in that he's a better performer than his $ value or trade value.  

 

Nolasco is probably a better performer than his perceived value in the league, but WAAAY below his $ value, so I'd  be pretty surprised if he's moved.  

Santana is a low motivation move on both sides and unlikely to be moved.

There is an apparent lack of need for Dozier or Plouffe across the league, I doubt either will be moved unless Plouffe is an August guy who could maybe platoon and pinch hit in a playoff race like Morneau was when he was dealt.

 

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if Rosario was dealt.  Organization hasn't valued defense in the outfield, Kepler and Buxton are likely to be mainstays, Grossman could warrant a look, corners are easy to fill and Left would be a prime location to upgrade if we look to contend anyway.

 

Nunez is a likely trade candidate in my mind.  Interestingly, Nunez has a higher perceived value than Plouffe.  Plouffe will likely not risk an arb next season and probably take a pay cut next year.  Who's more likely be good next couple seasons, Nunez or Plouffe?  The rest of this season and playoffs?I'd look to move Nunez and Escobar.  I'd deal with Plouffe in the off season if he couldn't be moved.  Especially since I believe Sano will be full time DH by next year.  

Vargas maybe if he can stay hot could be a good NL bench bat with his switch hitting power.  Perhaps a trade sweetener.  Polanco could also be a trade sweetener, but probably only if we knew we were planning on retaining Plouffe.

All relievers are probably on the table, but I'd probably talk some extensions first (unpopular).  Kintzler and Abad have pitched well enough to warrant keeping around at a low price.  I'd leverage them against each other before trading one or both. It's not like we won't need pen help next year regardless of trade scenarios.

I think we keep Dozier because he's sort of popular, relative cheap, and difficult to improve from.

[nicksaviking]

Molitor just said again in the pregame interview that Gibson has to stop trying to strike guys out and not be afraid to put the ball in play.

When did Gibson ever try to do that?!

 

I'm convinced a lack of communication is among the top issues with this organization.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

When did Gibson ever try to do that?!

I'm convinced a lack of communication is among the top issues with this organization.

I'm only suggesting that the Twins are still pushing pitch-to-contact while the pitchers continue to fight it.

[pierre75275]

I would like to see Plouffe non tendered after the season if nobody claims him on waivers in August. If somebody claims him, let him go for nothing.

I would nontender Milone as well but try to resign him on a major league deal. If the Twins keep him via ARB he might be 6mil or more.

Trade Santana

Trade Ricky, eat some money if you have to.

Trade Suzuki. Sign him back in the off season if it works for both sides.

Trade Dozier. Bring up Polanco.

Trade Grossman.

Keep Nunez. He is cheap. He can hit and run. He doesn't field well but if you trade Grossman, Dozier and non tender/trade Plouffe you need a guy like Nunez on your roster. Besides he plays with passion, and he has FUN playing...something I don't believe a lot guys on this roster bring to the table

[beckmt]

There has to be buyers to sell. Expect nothing much to happen until end of July. New sellers seem to be emerging, with good sales assets. Expect many of the players to be moved, but all last minute or August.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Boy, it's hard to get a read on Gibson. Since returning from injury, he's been decent:

 

8 G, 50 IP, 4.09 ERA, 40 K, 13 BB

 

Remove the three rocky starts he had returning from injury and you get this:

 

5 G, 32.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 29 K, 8 BB

 

I don't really understand this guy. He goes on 4-8 week stretches of missing bats and then regresses for another 4-8 weeks, turning into a below average pitcher.

 

Seeing the ERA spike up and down isn't a surprise - lots of mediocre pitchers do that - but the volatile K rate is puzzling.

 

In April, he pitched 20 innings and struck out only 11.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Dodgers already acquired Bud Norris and just got Brandon McCarthy back too. By my count, that's 4 starters who are better bets than Nolasco at the moment, even without Kershaw or Ryu (and now that Urias is apparently headed to the bullpen).

 

Like a lot of teams, they might take him in August if he is virtually free and they still have a need.

I will add, even with Urias headed to the pen to limit his innings, the Dodgers also have top prospect Jose De Leon coming on strong at AAA, and they have controlled his innings thus far. I'd guess they'd give him a shot before they would turn to someone like Nolasco.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Boy, it's hard to get a read on Gibson. Since returning from injury, he's been decent:

 

8 G, 50 IP, 4.09 ERA, 40 K, 13 BB

 

Remove the three rocky starts he had returning from injury and you get this:

 

5 G, 32.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 29 K, 8 BB

 

I don't really understand this guy. He goes on 4-8 week stretches of missing bats and then regresses for another 4-8 weeks, turning into a below average pitcher.

 

Seeing the ERA spike up and down isn't a surprise - lots of mediocre pitchers do that - but the volatile K rate is puzzling.

 

In April, he pitched 20 innings and struck out only 11.

Which is why I say dangle his name around and try to make a trade.  Heck, one of the MiLB guys can be that inconsistent.  And there may be more of an upside than Gibson.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Which is why I say dangle his name around and try to make a trade.  Heck, one of the MiLB guys can be that inconsistent.  And there may be more of an upside than Gibson.

If Gibson had been rolling for two months, I'd be more inclined to agree. Right now, I think any offer would skew on the low end of things.

 

And that's not the time to trade a guy unless you *need* to clear roster space. Obviously, that's not the case with the Twins.

 

And given how the Twins may want to move three other starters, adding Gibson to the mix seems like muddying the situation. If a team asks for Gibson, push them toward Santana. If a team wants to lowball a pitcher, push Nolasco or Milone on them.

 

I don't see much benefit in adding Gibson's name to the mix today.

[ashbury]

Man they should have traded Plouffe last offseason.

There was no market for third basemen.

 

Zilch.

 

David Freese, a pretty equivalent player, languished on the free agent market (where you don't even have to give up a prospect to get him) and he didn't sign until March and only for $3M. To acquire Plouffe would have meant taking on his $7M salary - why would another team give up anything at all to do this, to speak nothing of it being an actual good prospect?

 

Trading Plouffe would have accomplished nothing. And he's a non-tender candidate for this off-season, so there was no urgency to move him simply for the salary relief.

[howieramone2]

 

"Big win" = 0.3 fWAR in 29.2 IP, traded for "not much"?  It's a win, but I wouldn't go overboard patting them on the back here, especially before Abad has even been dealt.

Looks to me our return with be greater than what we got for board favorites Pinto and Arcia combined.

[alarp33]

There was no market for third basemen.

 

Zilch.

 

David Freese, a pretty equivalent player, languished on the free agent market (where you don't even have to give up a prospect to get him) and he didn't sign until March and only for $3M. To acquire Plouffe would have meant taking on his $7M salary - why would another team give up anything at all to do this, to speak nothing of it being an actual good prospect?

 

Trading Plouffe would have accomplished nothing. And he's a non-tender candidate for this off-season, so there was no urgency to move him simply for the salary relief.

Except the whole thing with the team being better with Kepler in RF and Sano at 3B than Plouffe at 3b and Sano in RF....

[ashbury]

Except the whole thing with the team being better with Kepler in RF and Sano at 3B than Plouffe at 3b and Sano in RF....

Ergo we should have traded Plouffe.

 

Except, there was no market for Plouffe.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Boy, it's hard to get a read on Gibson. Since returning from injury, he's been decent:

 

8 G, 50 IP, 4.09 ERA, 40 K, 13 BB

 

Remove the three rocky starts he had returning from injury and you get this:

 

5 G, 32.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 29 K, 8 BB

 

I don't really understand this guy. He goes on 4-8 week stretches of missing bats and then regresses for another 4-8 weeks, turning into a below average pitcher.

 

Seeing the ERA spike up and down isn't a surprise - lots of mediocre pitchers do that - but the volatile K rate is puzzling.

 

In April, he pitched 20 innings and struck out only 11.

 

I think we as fans get a little too wrapped up in what is luck and what isn't personally.  Gibson was a pretty good pitcher in the minors. His peripherals took a step forward last season, but I'm not sure he's done learning.  His minor league K rate by the way is over 8 per 9 IP... I think he's a guy we should be patient with.  He strikes me more as a guy I might dangle with guys like Gonsalves, Jay, Stewart etc. are fighting for spots.. especially if we are still seeing this maddeningly frustrating issues with consistency...

 

Oh, I have to say it due to the irony, but remember when he was being held down due to being inconsistent? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Except the whole thing with the team being better with Kepler in RF and Sano at 3B than Plouffe at 3b and Sano in RF....

 

I know that it's always been all the rage to pick on Twins management, and to be fair, they earn the criticism from time to time, but doing so in a vacuum without actual context really bothers me.

 

Ash said it right, there was no market.  Fraiser (a much better 3B than Plouffe) had a very underwhelming return. Freese (an equivalent) signed for 4M less than what Plouffe is making.  TR rolled the dice here and instead of a nontender/sell for basically no return, he (I assume) hoped that Plouffe could have a similar season and potentially be moved at the deadline. Maybe that wasn't his line of reasoning, I don't know.  But of all the decisions to criticize, keeping a 20+ HR guy with decent defense at the corner given the sheer number of unknowns in the line up isn't a mistake I can really get all too upset about...

 

Leaving Milone on the roster when he might have had some value (not to mention having 7 starters for 5 spots plus Rogers/Dean on the 40 man and Berrios sitting in AAA) or not getting help in the pen... those were much bigger mistakes.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I would like to see Plouffe non tendered after the season if nobody claims him on waivers in August. If somebody claims him, let him go for nothing.
I would nontender Milone as well but try to resign him on a major league deal. If the Twins keep him via ARB he might be 6mil or more.
Trade Santana
Trade Ricky, eat some money if you have to.
Trade Suzuki. Sign him back in the off season if it works for both sides.
Trade Dozier. Bring up Polanco.
Trade Grossman.
Keep Nunez. He is cheap. He can hit and run. He doesn't field well but if you trade Grossman, Dozier and non tender/trade Plouffe you need a guy like Nunez on your roster. Besides he plays with passion, and he has FUN playing...something I don't believe a lot guys on this roster bring to the table

 

Trading Dozier and keeping Nunez opens two middle infield holes after next season. And while you'd like to hope your future middle infield is Polanco-Gordon, I'm not sure you can bank on that. 

[Brandon Warne]

(of course, if Nunez plays like he has this year again next year, you could hit him with the QO -- if it still exists)

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, unless I get an offer I cannot refuse for Nunez, I'd think about extending him. I think as a utility/bat off the bench, he's very valuable. It's possible that he's figured it out, but I suspect him to regress a bit, but he's always had a decent bat and I think in that role, he's an excellent option.  Otherwise, James Beresford has certainly earned the right to play in a utility role if Nunez got traded. His bat isn't quite as nice, but I don't think he would be a bad major league player in that role.

[jorgenswest]

Nunez is too old to extend. They have next year under control. If he is at all star level next year, they can give him a qualifying offer. Otherwise he will be 31 when he hits free agency. Fielding declines first and his fielding has no where to decline. There is little reason to extend him and buy the decline phase of his career.

[ashbury]

(of course, if Nunez plays like he has this year again next year, you could hit him with the QO -- if it still exists)

The level at which the league sets the QO would be well above market value unless he ups his game dramatically, wouldn't it? He's still viewed as a bat-first backup with below average defense.

[Jham]

 

Nunez is too old to extend. They have next year under control. If he is at all star level next year, they can give him a qualifying offer. Otherwise he will be 31 when he hits free agency. Fielding declines first and his fielding has no where to decline. There is little reason to extend him and buy the decline phase of his career.

Like everything, it's a game of price is right.  A brief extension like the one given to Suzuki in order to buy us time to get Gordon up or otherwise find a longer term solution wouldn't be horrible, as much flack as Zuke's got when playing poorly not-withstanding.  With Plouffe being gone, Nunez becomes more valuable to us and us to him.  Who's better over the next 2 seasons? Plouffe, Nuenez or Escobar?  Interesting debate.  I'd have to take Plouffe out of those 3, but he's the most expensive and pretty unlikely to return.  I do not see Sano sticking at 3rd, nor Nunez having another year like this, but for the right price, he's a valuable piece.  Gordon isn't ready yet, and Polanco is likely a slight downgrade.

[Jham]

 

 

Leaving Milone on the roster when he might have had some value (not to mention having 7 starters for 5 spots plus Rogers/Dean on the 40 man and Berrios sitting in AAA) or not getting help in the pen... those were much bigger mistakes.

 

Agree 100% on the Plouffe thing last year.  The 2nd part confused me.  Are you talking last year or this year?  Millone's been a pretty solid pitcher for a cheap price and no commitment.  He was waived and unclaimed which means he has no street value.  I see him as the essence of money ball.  Cheap but effective.  If waived again, he doesn't have to accept an assignment and can become a FA and I think we'd still be on the hook for the salary difference.  (not positive, MLB waiver rules are complex).  Twins fans, out of everyone, should be able to see the value in having pitchers who can be signed cheaply and without multiyear commitments.  Without Millones or Pelfreys you have to suddenly overpay for Hughes and Nolcascos.  That's what set us back (combined with lack of prospect development to replace Hughes and Nolascos in their decline).  I'll never get the hate for Millone.