Who Fits Where at the Deadline

[Brandon Warne]

I wrote an article on some fits I see for potential Twins trade chips:

 

https://t.co/XJ3M090mt4

 

As always, discussion is appreciated. 

[Vanimal46]

90% likely that Plouffe is traded IMO is too high. Unless it's specifically a salary dump, I don't see a team offering even a low-level prospect for him now that he's playing poorly and hurt. 

I'd say the same about Nolasco's trade likelihood being 55%. Again, unless it's specifically a salary dump, I don't see a team offering even a low-level prospect for him. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

90% likely that Plouffe is traded IMO is too high. Unless it's specifically a salary dump, I don't see a team offering even a low-level prospect for him now that he's playing poorly and hurt. 

I'd say the same about Nolasco's trade likelihood being 55%. Again, unless it's specifically a salary dump, I don't see a team offering even a low-level prospect for him. 

 

Maybe. But I think there'll be a market for Nolasco as a back-end line mover and I just don't see how Plouffe and Sano can co-exist unless they DH Sano and keep Park down for the rest of the season. 

[mazeville]

The Plouffe question is interesting. I think it might be too high. But he is a good post-deadline candidate given his price tag. The Twins should definitely do something with him if they can once he returns. Yet if nobody was going to trade much for Plouffe in the offseason, I don't know why they'd do it now.

 

The one question I really have is Dozier. I'd probably wait until the offseason to find a trade partner. But he's someone who could get a return and the Twins do need to find a spot for Polanco.

[Vanimal46]

 

Maybe. But I think there'll be a market for Nolasco as a back-end line mover and I just don't see how Plouffe and Sano can co-exist unless they DH Sano and keep Park down for the rest of the season. 

If other teams feel that way about Nolasco then Hallelujah, let's get rid of him while we can.

Plouffe if he isn't traded would have to be the bench bat the rest of the season. Playing sparingly at 3B/1B/DH if Sano/Mauer/Park needs a day off.  

[alarp33]

I don't believe there's any chance someone takes on Nolasco's salary, even in a straight salary dump.  Maybe if the Twins picked up half the contract they could give him away.  

 

I think Santana has value if the Twins pick up half of his salary, potentially for a good prospect or two.  Without offering to pick up any salary, I think his value is limited.  Why would the Dodgers want to lock themselves into 2 more years of Erv in the rotation when they have a full rotation next year and beyond, and limitless resources (both prospects and cash)

[Brandon Warne]

 

If other teams feel that way about Nolasco then Hallelujah, let's get rid of him while we can.

Plouffe if he isn't traded would have to be the bench bat the rest of the season. Playing sparingly at 3B/1B/DH if Sano/Mauer/Park needs a day off.  

 

I suspect there'll be one team out there who might see Nolasco's peripherals and think.....maaaaybe.

 

But he is who he is at this point. If the Twins eat a little cash I think he can move.

[mazeville]

 

If other teams feel that way about Nolasco then Hallelujah, let's get rid of him while we can.

Plouffe if he isn't traded would have to be the bench bat the rest of the season. Playing sparingly at 3B/1B/DH if Sano/Mauer/Park needs a day off.  

 

Man they should have traded Plouffe last offseason.

[alarp33]

 

I suspect there'll be one team out there who might see Nolasco's peripherals and think.....maaaaybe.

 

 

What peripherals? This is the pitcher he is.  His K/9 is down, walks very slightly down, hr rate slightly up. His babip is basically precisely in line with his career marks.  This just who he is, a crappy pitcher who usually has a FIP well below his ERA

[Brandon Warne]

 

What peripherals? This is the pitcher he is.  His K/9 is down, walks very slightly down, hr rate slightly up. His babip is basically precisely in line with his career marks.  This just who he is, a crappy pitcher who usually has a FIP well below his ERA

 

4.16 FIP and very low walk rate. 

[alarp33]

 

4.16 FIP and very low walk rate. 

 

His career FIP is 3.84 and his career era is 4.57

 

His 2016 FIP is 4.16 and his 2016 era is 5.02

 

Looks about right to me,  

 

He's always had a low walk rate

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Nolasco hit the market this offseason, could he get a $12 million deal? Maybe not for one year as a standalone deal, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility based on his usual ability to eat innings and post good peripherals with subpar results to follow.

No way, unless Nolasco goes on a tear these last few months (which no one is really going to know at the non-waiver trade deadline, and probably not at the waiver deadline either).

 

He's been so bad these past 2.5 years, and he was so marginal before that (check out what kind of trade return he generated in 2013), he'd be looking at a Bud Norris type $2.5 mil flyer deal as a free agent, at best.

 

And since he's not a free agent, but rather has an expensive guaranteed contract with a team perhaps desperate to reclaim his roster/rotation spot, I'd be surprised if a team was even willing to eat that much of the deal in trade.  They'd have the leverage, might as well force the Twins to eat everything but the minimum salary in return for org filler, or just release him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I just don't see how Plouffe and Sano can co-exist unless they DH Sano and keep Park down for the rest of the season. 

They are co-existing just fine right now, with Plouffe on the DL.  

 

Seriously, he's not even scheduled to return until August.  I'd say there is a greater than 10% chance that his return is delayed, that he comes back so cold/rusty as to be untradeable, or that one of Sano, Vargas, Park, Mauer, or an outfielder gets injured before then.

[Vanimal46]

Much more likely in my mind that Nolasco is released than traded. I guess miracles are possible and someone takes him on, but I'd put that at a ~5% chance. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For the Twins to get as much or more out of Abad than Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo provided their respective teams is a big win for the Twins

"Big win" = 0.3 fWAR in 29.2 IP, traded for "not much"?  It's a win, but I wouldn't go overboard patting them on the back here, especially before Abad has even been dealt.

[Rosterman]

Suzuki is a bad rental, even for his bat. He doesn't give a contending team much behind-the-plate. Will be a free agent.

 

Plouffe is entering an expensive arbitration year. You pay him that, sign him long term, or release him. So, short rental.

 

Abad and Nunez are both still cheap going into arbitration. But at what cost. One is considered a utility player. The other a rebounding bullpen arm who is now going thru a tad of a bad spell. Are they better/worse than a callup from a team's minors. Do you see them contributing to your team much in 2017.

 

Kintzler is a low-cost grab because you need someone to close games and you are better than the Twins right now.

 

Santana gives you exactly what his stats show. He is not overpriced for two more seasons. Depends on your own depth. Plus you would still have the option of trading him yourself next season.

 

Do you need Nolasco. Would you pay him $12 million next year? If the Twins release him, you only have to pay major league minimum. Leave him as a Twins problem.

 

Dozier? My second baseman will be a free agent and I have no one in the wings. Maybe it would be a good time to see what it would take to pry this guy from the Twins.

 

Contending teams MAY need a piece of a puzzle. But paying anything of true value might be hard-to-do to the Twins.

 

Which is sad, because hate to see players walk with no return (especially if they are doing well and could help another team). Or eat a contract.

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Plouffe and Nolasco might be August deals. Plouffe will get claimed and the Twins might end up with an Alex Pressley type return. I don't see them taking him to arbitration next year so they may as well get the best the claiming team will offer. Nolasco will not get claimed, the Twins might be able to move him if they pick up some salary.

 

Santana's appeal to other teams is that he should come at a lower prospect cost. Some will argue here that the Twins should have paid some salary to get a better prospect but there is little motivation for most teams to go that direction. If they are willing to part with better prospects they can go after some of the younger pitching options.

 

I am not confident that there is any market for Suzuki as a starter. Some of the teams have poorer hitting catchers but they made the decision to seek defense first at the catcher position in the first place. Suzuki doesn't measure up well defensively when compared to the their current catchers. Back up catchers won't drive a significant return.

 

Is there a market for Dozier? Are there enough teams in need of a 2B to drive a demand? He might get a better return than any other veteran option.

 

Lots of relievers move at the deadline. Kintzler and Abad could be two of them. Neither has a consistent track record for success. I would think neither is as valuable as Jepsen was at the deadline last year. An A-Ball prospect with a back of the rotation potential is a possible return.

 

Nunez has a good bat, but comes with the same question as Suzuki. Does anyone see him as their starting SS defensively? If not, utility players will move but the return will not be inspiring. His 2017 season as a Twon might be more valuable than any return they get.

 

The Twins have several guys they can move. None of them will shift the future of the franchise much. The best route might be to seek a failed prospect that was on the top prospect lists in 2012-2013.

[Thrylos]

The Dodgers might be a good landing place for Nolasco.  He was successful there: 8-3, 3.52 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.195 WHIP, 7.8 K/9.  With Wood out for the season and Kershaw hurting, their rotation is Maeda, Kasmir, and a cast of characters in a revolving door from the minors.  They would need at least 2 SP to continue to compete (4 games behind SF and in the WC lead for the NL) and this assumes that Kershaw will return soon.  And Nolasco will be at least their number 3 pitcher right away.  But the return will be less for what they gave the Marlins the first time around, and from those 3 players 2 are in the independent leagues and one is a MiLB journeyman. 

Addition by subtraction basically.

 

 

Got to add Dozier to the list, and Milone for sure.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Dodgers might be a good landing place for Nolasco.  He was successful there: 8-3, 3.52 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.195 WHIP, 7.8 K/9.  With Wood out for the season and Kershaw hurting, their rotation is Maeda, Kasmir, and a cast of characters in a revolving door from the minors.  They would need at least 2 SP to continue to compete (4 games behind SF and in the WC lead for the NC) and this assumes that Kershaw will return soon.  And Nolasco will be at least their number 3 pitcher right away

The Dodgers already acquired Bud Norris and just got Brandon McCarthy back too.  By my count, that's 4 starters who are better bets than Nolasco at the moment, even without Kershaw or Ryu (and now that Urias is apparently headed to the bullpen).

 

Like a lot of teams, they might take him in August if he is virtually free and they still have a need.

[markos]

Regarding Nolasco, Dave Cameron mentioned the Orioles and Marlins as two teams that essentially zero farm system available to get a decent pitcher (even though they really, really need pitching help), so their only hope would be to take on salary on someone who is mostly terrible and just hope for the best. Nolasco was a name he mentioned in that category. It is kind of unbelievable, but Nolasco's 117 ERA- would be 4th best on the Marlins and 3rd best on the Orioles. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I could easily see an NL team take a flyer on Nolasco if the Twins ate a bunch of salary.

 

There isn't much upside in Rickey but he could be a serviceable 4/5 starter on an NL team.

 

The AL, maybe not so much.

[Shaitan]

I think it they outright release Nolasco there's still only a 50-50 chance somebody picks him up. What has he done in 2.5 years that makes any team want him? This feels like Worley except that he's owed way more money and is older.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the Twins would be happy to get rid of Nolasco for a bag of baseballs (and even that is asking too much).  I do think that some teams might be willing to take a flier on the guy for said proverbial bag of balls, especially one with a license to print money and that doesn't want to pony up the prospects to get a better one. The Dodgers here might actually be a good fit as they can just DFA the guy when some of their help comes back, and if he pitches better in the NL (which many have assumed) then perhaps you keep him around.  They could have all of that for what turns out to be a 30 year old minor league journeyman who is a minor league FA in 3 months.

 

As for Plouffe, I doubt he had value this offseason, but if he comes back swinging a decent bat, he strikes me as an Aug 31 deal... Otherwise, he's a non-tender this offseason.  I doubt he's back in MN next year.

 

One guy missing is Dozier.  I have to think the Twins are fielding offers here... or hope they are at least. I suspect he's an offseason move from the new GM, but I think there's a non zero chance he moves... same with Nunez. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Regarding Nolasco, Dave Cameron mentioned the Orioles and Marlins as two teams that essentially zero farm system available to get a decent pitcher (even though they really, really need pitching help), so their only hope would be to take on salary on someone who is mostly terrible and just hope for the best. Nolasco was a name he mentioned in that category. It is kind of unbelievable, but Nolasco's 117 ERA- would be 4th best on the Marlins and 3rd best on the Orioles. 

But if they're going to start someone terrible and hope for the best, Baltimore already has options, looks like they are moving Jimenez to the bullpen in favor of Worley.  I'm not as familiar with the Marlins, looks their SP depth chart at MLB.com is indeed only 4 deep.

 

And in any case, if that's the direction they decide to go, it's not like Nolasco would be the only "mostly terrible" guy available, they'd still have some leverage to make the Twins eat most of the salary.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think the Twins would be happy to get rid of Nolasco for a bag of baseballs (and even that is asking too much).

Expecting anything more than monetary salary relief in return for Nolasco is a mistake in my opinion.

 

If the Twins can save $7m-ish by someone taking half of Nolasco's 2017 salary, I'd call it a win and move on.

[Willihammer]

The O's jacked up payroll quite a bit last offseason, I wonder if Gibson would be more appealing to them than Santana. Being a ground ball guy might play better in Camden too.

[nicksaviking]

If Anthony is auditioning for a job, I have a sinking feeling he won't eat salary.

 

I think we are going to end up disappointed this trade deadline and only a couple moves occur, however we will come to our senses this offseason and realize we should have never wanted the interim guy making the trades anyway, we want the future GM to make them.

 

Only Suzuki is a rental, and he should go, everyone else can be controlled past this year. I'll certainly get excited for the deadline continually refreshing MLBTR, but any trade other than Suzuki can still be made come November if needed.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd guess Suzuki and Abad go......and the Twins get nothing much.....and everyone is all angsty here, as if there was anything of value they could (or want to) trade....

[HitInAPinch]

Kintzler, Abad, Boshers, D. Santana and Suzuki are the highest on my list of tradeables.  Playoff teams are always looking for RP, UTL guy's and C's this time of year.  Actually, a little later.

 

Santana:  will depend on what can be done about the contract.  I'd take a lower level-ish MiLBer to make the deal. 

 

Plouffe:  right now, untradeable.  If the new GM pushed for a clean start, Plouffe would be a backup guy here, at best.  Which is kind of a shame for him to go out like that at only 30 yrs old.  Let him find a new place to work.

 

Nolasco?  A plate of smelly cheese works for me.

 

Me?  I'm looking for more of a splash to give this rebuild a little more kick. I'd be looking to trade May or Gibson.  Let Milone be someone else's AAAA guy.

[jorgenswest]

I think trading May or Gibson would be selling low. You might do that if you were contending for a playoff spot and brought back a piece that help in the second half. May is the kid of buy low guy they might look for when trading a rental in Suzuki.