Article: Der Schlager Kepler Keeps Climbing

[Seth Stohs]

In the top of the ninth inning on Wednesday afternoon in Detroit, Max Kepler hit his tenth home run of the season and of his brief major league career. It gave the Twins a 2-1 lead and they went on to their tenth win in fifteen games.

 

Max Kepler has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball over the last four-to-six weeks. While his batting average remains just shy of .230, he has taken good at-bats, shown a lot of power (nine homers in the past 30 games) and driven in as many runs as anyone in baseball.

 

Kepler was our choice for Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2015. It was a breakout season of sorts for the German outfielder. He made his debut in the big leagues late last September after leading the Chattanooga Lookouts to the Southern League championship following being named the league’s MVP.He became a huge prospect nationally. Now, he has too many at-bats to still be called a prospect. Through Wednesday’s game, Kepler has ten home runs in 196 major league plate appearances. He has quickly climbed the prospect ladder as he worked his way toward the big leagues. Now in the big leagues, he is climbing the list of top rookies in the American League, arguably behind only Detroit’s Michael Fullmer if Rookie of the Year voting were done today.

 

Der Schlager (The Slugger) is also climbing the statistical leaderboard for German-born major league players. According to Baseball-Reference.com, there have been 43 big leaguers who were born in Germany. As of today, Kepler ranks 14th in plate appearances. His ten home runs are already fifth on the list.

 

A brief look at the players born in Germany who have more plate appearances than him tells even more about the unique story of Max Kepler. When the Twins signed him for about three-quarters of a million dollars, it was the highest bonus ever given to a player from the country, or anywhere in Europe. Assuming health, Kepler will most likely set all of the records for players from Germany.

 

Glenn Hubbard - Those of us old enough to remember when most Atlanta games were on TBS in the ‘80s remember the long-time second baseman fondly. He is the current leader in plate appearances with 5,122 over 12 seasons in the big leagues. He was born in Germany, the son of a father who was in the United States Air Force. He moved to the States when he was very young and went to school in California and Utah.

 

Bill Kuehne - Born in the German Confederation city of Leipzig in the mid-1800s, Kuehne accumulated 4,423 plate appearances over his ten year career. He grew up in Chicago.

 

Mike Blowers - Blowers was a power-hitter, mostly playing for the Mariners, during the years that Ken Griffey, Edgar Martinez and Jay Buhner played in Seattle. He had 2,585 plate appearances over 11 big league seasons. Born in Wurzburg, he was the son of a US army dad and moved to the United States at a very young age.

 

Jeff Baker - Baker spent parts of 11 seasons in the big leagues. He accumulated 1,958 plate appearances between 2005 and 2015 as a utility player (primarily). He also was born to a military family, his dad being in the Army.

 

Fritz Mollwitz - A Coburg native, Mollwitz played in the big leagues between 1913 and 1919. He had 1,909 plate appearances.

 

Charlie “Pretzel” Getzien - Getzien became the first MLB player from Germany when he debuted in 1884. A pitcher, there are multiple stories on how he earned the Pretzel nickname. Maybe it was based on his country of origin. Some believed it was because of his curveball, which people say curved at least twice, like a pretzel. He came to the plate 1,140 times over his nine big league seasons.

 

Ben Koehler - Born in Schoerndorn, Koehler had 804 plate appearances in just two big league seasons. He played major league baseball in 1905 and 1906.

 

Ron Gardenhire - The long-time Twins manager and coach was born in Butzbach, West Germany. He is the son of a Army man. He moved to the States as a very young child. He came to the plate 777 times between 1981 and 1985.

 

Dutch Schliebner - The Berlin native spent just one season in the big leagues, 1923. He batted 587 times that year but never got another opportunity.

 

Marty Krug - He played in 20 games for the Red Sox in 1912 and then got into 127 games for the Cubs in 1922. He accumulated a total of 571 plate appearances. Born in Koblenz, he left Germany when he was three years old.

 

Heinz Becker - Between 1943 and 1947, Becker spent parts of four seasons in the big leagues. He had 412 plate appearances in MLB. He was born in Berlin but his family left Germany following World War I. They went to Venezuela before moving to the United States. He was the only player from Germany during World War II.

 

Edwin Jackson - Jackson was recently called up to the big leagues again. He has spent parts of 14 seasons in the big leagues, starting in 2003. He has accumulated 412 career plate appearances.

 

Next in line is Max Kepler, just shy of 200 plate appearances. Let’s guess, and hope, that Kepler stays healthy and productive the rest of 2016 and through 2017. He could reach 1,000 plate appearances by the end of 2017 which would rank eighth on this list.

 

As far as the home run list, Kepler already ranks tenth, though it’ll take him a few years to climb the list. Bill Kuehne (25), Jeff Baker (54), Glenn Hubbard (70) and Mike Blowers (78) are the four German-born players ahead of Kepler on the list.

 

So what we see from the list of players born in Germany, they fit into a couple of categories.

• Players born in Germany before World War 1.
• Players whose family left Germany when they were young.
• Players born to military families who were based in Germany for their birth.

In some cases, players fit into a couple of these categories.

 

Kepler is unique in many ways, but he is certainly one of the first in nearly a century to be raised in Germany. Though his mother is from the United States and he visited family in Texas on vacations, Kepler grew up in Berlin. When he signed, his only real baseball experience came in Germany.

 

Kepler signed in July of 2009, the same day the Twins signed Jorge Polanco. Miguel Sano was signed in October of the same year. That’s an impressive class filled with a lot of potential.

 

Kepler has the potential to be the greatest player ever born in Germany. He may already be the greatest player who ever grew up in Germany.

And he is the first player from Germany ever to grace the cover of the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook..

 

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[theBOMisthebomb]

Gardy? You think you know someone...

[MacTheKnife]

Das Wunderkind!! 

[scottz]

Herr Oktober!! (someday, hopefully)

[HitInAPinch]

Ich habe gelernt , wie Sie mit Google Translate !

[HitInAPinch]

Kepler seems to be improving every game.  Remember when people were questioning his defense??

[jimmer]

 

Kepler seems to be improving every game.  Remember when people were questioning his defense??

Never understood the whole questioning his defense thing.

[h2oface]

I like watching Kepler a lot. But call me old fashioned on this. I still like hitters that hit for high average, and RBI mean clutch hitting. Kepler is coming on. Thankfully, he hasn't been embarrassing in the field, lately. (Yup, I remember).

 

June 3

The rookie booted a two-hop single to right field in the eighth inning, allowing Tampa Bay base runner Taylor Motter to advance to third and eventually score the go-ahead run on Brad Miller’s RBI single.

 

June 15:

Routine fly overrun, Kepler watches it fall to the ground he just ran past.

http://m.mlb.com/video/v819820783

Edited July 21, 2016 by h2oface

[jimmer]

Even the very best defenders have the occasional mess up.  Every one of them.  It's body of work that needs to be looked at and his body of work on defense is good. He has a solid zero for a DRS.  Not great or fantastic or anything, but he's good.  We've definitely had worse out in RF for years, including this year.

[Blake]

To me, that home run yesterday signaled the arrival of Kepler.

 

Rosario's home run let us know that "he's baack!"

[jimmer]

 

To me, that home run yesterday signaled the arrival of Kepler.

 

Rosario's home run let us know that "he's baack!"

Ah, but what is he back too, exactly?

[clutterheart]

 

What am I missing here?  

 

 

 

 

Max Kepler has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball over the last four-to-six weeks.

Last 15 Games .193/.288/.596

Last 30 games  .248/.328/.578

A good slugging % does not = productive

 

he is climbing the list of top rookies in the American League, arguably behind only Detroit’s Michael Fullmer if Rookie of the Year voting were done today.

 

 

What?

There are at least 10 rookies who are having better numbers than Kepler

 

We all like Kepler, but...come on, lets be realistic...He is hitting some homers and thats cool, but he has a ways to go.  

 

 

 

Edited July 21, 2016 by clutterheart

[Seth Stohs]

 

To me, that home run yesterday signaled the arrival of Kepler.

 

Rosario's home run let us know that "he's baack!"

 

Was yesterday's his arrival, or was his walkoff last month?

[Seth Stohs]

 

What am I missing here?  

 

 

 

Last 15 Games .193/.288/.596

Last 30 games  .248/.328/.578

A good slugging % does not = productive

 

 

What?

There are at least 10 rookies who are having better numbers than Kepler

 

We all like Kepler, but...come on, lets be realistic...He is hitting some homers and thats cool, but he has a ways to go.  

 

I don't think anyone is claiming he's a finished product... 

 

Also, send me some names of other rookies in the American League who are playing pretty well. 

 

I mentioned Michael Fullmer. I admit I don't watch much other than the Twins, but I don't know many rookies who have been better. I guess the two Korean players, one of the Orioles and the other from the Mariners.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

What am I missing here?  

 

 

 

Last 15 Games .193/.288/.596

Last 30 games  .248/.328/.578

A good slugging % does not = productive

 

 

What?

There are at least 10 rookies who are having better numbers than Kepler

 

We all like Kepler, but...come on, lets be realistic...He is hitting some homers and thats cool, but he has a ways to go.  

A good slugging % is the definition of efficiency, which is the essence of productivity.

[jimmer]

 

I don't think anyone is claiming he's a finished product... 

 

Also, send me some names of other rookies in the American League who are playing pretty well. 

 

I mentioned Michael Fullmer. I admit I don't watch much other than the Twins, but I don't know many rookies who have been better. I guess the two Korean players, one of the Orioles and the other from the Mariners.

I'd probably go with Naquin.

Edited July 21, 2016 by jimmer

[h2oface]

Even the very best defenders have the occasional mess up. Every one of them. It's body of work that needs to be looked at and his body of work on defense is good. He has a solid zero for a DRS. Not great or fantastic or anything, but he's good. We've definitely had worse out in RF for years, including this year.

I agree. But that last statement is key. We, as Twins' fans have been somewhat conditioned to lower expectations. I have high hopes for Kepler, too, but am not ready to anoint him the next thing.

[jimmer]

 

I agree. But that last statement is key. We, as Twins' fans have been somewhat conditioned to lower expectations. I have high hopes for Kepler, too, but am not ready to anoint him the next thing.

I have liked Kepler for a long time and I'm happy with what he's doing at this age.  I'd like him to get on base more, but he isn't getting embarrassed at the plate or the field. 

 

I will agree, and I've been saying it for awhile now, that our bar for considering a player good has been severely lowered.

Edited July 21, 2016 by jimmer

[h2oface]

A good slugging % is the definition of efficiency, which is the essence of productivity.

Now there is a pitch.

[70charger]

 

Dutch Schliebner - The Berlin native spent just one season in the big leagues, 1923. He batted 587 times that year but never got another opportunity.

 

A German named Dutch? My Opa is harrumphing somewhere...

[nytwinsfan]

 

What am I missing here?  

 

 

 

Last 15 Games .193/.288/.596

Last 30 games  .248/.328/.578

A good slugging % does not = productive

 

 

What?

There are at least 10 rookies who are having better numbers than Kepler

 

We all like Kepler, but...come on, lets be realistic...He is hitting some homers and thats cool, but he has a ways to go.  

Here is what you are missing (although to be fair, so are many other people). Kepler's BABIP has been very low during the entirety of his hot streak.  Since June 1st when he returned to the Twins, his BABIP has been .239, which is quite quite low. During his last 15 games his BABIP has been .098. Check Baseball Reference yourself. Despite that ridiculously low BABIP, his OPS is .884 during that time period. That's crazy. During his last 30 games his BABIP has been .231 despite a .906 OPS.

 

So in summary, the last month (and even more so the last 15 games) Kepler is showing tremendous power with very good plate discipline. He is succeeding despite pretty terrible luck, not because of good luck. That is what you and just about everyone else is missing. This bodes very very well for his future. So even if the power goes down, which it probably will, we can reasonably expect his average to go up a bit to at least partially compensate.

 

Now to be fair, he may have a lower BABIP than his prior "line drive swing" would have led one to expect, in part because in the last two months he's been hitting more fly balls, thus leading to more power. But he should still be expected to have a BABIP well above .231, and certainly much much higher than .098.

[brvama]

A German named Dutch? My Opa is harrumphing somewhere...

 

I believe many Germans have carried the nickname "Dutch." It comes from the German name for Germany, Deutschland.

[bluechipper]

 

I don't think anyone is claiming he's a finished product... 

 

Also, send me some names of other rookies in the American League who are playing pretty well. 

 

I mentioned Michael Fullmer. I admit I don't watch much other than the Twins, but I don't know many rookies who have been better. I guess the two Korean players, one of the Orioles and the other from the Mariners.

Tyler Naquin is the clear front-runner. He's hitting .324/.387/.636 (1.023) with 12 HR and 29 RBI.

 

Nomar Mazara is up there too. He's at .278/.331/.410 (.742) with 11 HR and 37 RBI, although I think Kepler would be ahead of him, and third overall behind Naquin and Fulmer.

[bluechipper]

I also think it's worth mentioning that Max Kepler was my Adopt-A-Prospect during his breakout season last year.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Tyler Naquin is the clear front-runner. He's hitting .324/.387/.636 (1.023) with 12 HR and 29 RBI.

 

Nomar Mazara is up there too. He's at .278/.331/.410 (.742) with 11 HR and 37 RBI, although I think Kepler would be ahead of him, and third overall behind Naquin and Fulmer.

 

In relation to my post up above, Naquin has a BABIP of .417 this year and Max Kepler has a BABIP of .241 this year. 

 

Another way of looking at this is Naquin's ISO is .313 and Kepler's ISO is .259.  Naquin's BB% is 8.7% and Kepler's is 10.1%.  Naquin's K rate is 28.6% and Kepler's is 22%.  Taken altogether, Naquin looks to have more power and Kepler looks to have better plate discipline, but both look very good in both departments. All things considered, they look to be of comparable value to me.

 

Now of course 90% of rookie of the year voters won't care a bit about BABIP, so if those BABIPs don't both regress towards .300, expect Naquin to win ROY. But if they both regress heavily, Max could still be very much in the running.

Edited July 21, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[clutterheart]

 

Also, send me some names of other rookies in the American League who are playing pretty well.

 

5 of the AL's best rookies are in the AL central and none of them are with the Twins.  

 

Tyler Naquin  - CLE 63 G - .324/.387/.636

Hyun Soo Kim - BAL 46 G - .329/.410/ .454

Steven Moya - DET 26 G - .258/.295/.517

Dae-Ho Lee  - SEA 70 G - .273//.322/.485

Cheslor  Cuthbert - KC  62 G-, .298/.328/.456

Tim  Anderson - CWS 33 G - .283/.293/.462

Michael Fulmer - DET 2.13 ERA, 84.2 IP 77 SO 1.07 WHIP

Michael Feliz - HOU 4.14 ERA, 41.1 IP, 59 SO, 1.14 WHIP

 

He is succeeding despite pretty terrible luck, not because of good luck. That is what you and just about everyone else is missing. This bodes very very well for his futur

 

Fine.  Most people including me think he is going to be a good Pro.  But this article said he has been "one of the most productive hitters in the past few weeks" and a potential ROY candidate.  I don't think he has been either of those things.  I think a lot of people are getting ahead of themselves on him.    He has hit some dingers at key times.  - Fantastic, and has a good slugging %.  But his overall stat lines are not in line with other rookies.

Edited July 21, 2016 by clutterheart

[bluechipper]

 

5 of the AL's best rookies are in the AL central and none of them are with the Twins.  

 

Tyler Naquin  - CLE 63 G - .324/.387/.636
Hyun Soo Kim - BAL 46 G - .329/.410/ .454
Steven Moya - DET 26 G - .258/.295/.517
Dae-Ho Lee  - SEA 70 G - .273//.322/.485

Cheslor  Cuthbert - KC  62 G-, .298/.328/.456
Tim  Anderson - CWS 33 G - .283/.293/.462

Michael Fulmer - DET 2.13 ERA, 84.2 IP 77 SO 1.07 WHIP

Michael Feliz - HOU 4.14 ERA, 41.1 IP, 59 SO, 1.14 WHIP

 

Naquin: .417 BABIP

Kim: .370 BABIP

Moya: .353 BABIP and 35% K rate

Anderson: .383 BABIP

Kepler: .241 BABIP

 

If/when these normalize, Kepler should pass these guys in stat lines, and he's already pretty close.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Naquin: .417 BABIP

Kim: .370 BABIP

Moya: .353 BABIP and 35% K rate

Anderson: .383 BABIP

Kepler: .241 BABIP

 

If/when these normalize, Kepler should pass these guys in stat lines, and he's already pretty close.

 

is the rookie of the year based on the future, or what a player did? It's almost like it hurts some peoples' feelings to compliment players on other teams.......maybe not you, but I've read enough here....

 

Preseason writers had the Twins odds on favorites to have the rookie of the year this year:

Buxton

Berrios

Park......

[clutterheart]

 

 

If/when these normalize, Kepler should pass these guys in stat lines, and he's already pretty close.

 

Sure, he is going to be good one, that became clear last year if not before, but i don't think he is going to be in ROY consideration - not even close.    

[bluechipper]

 

is the rookie of the year based on the future, or what a player did? It's almost like it hurts some peoples' feelings to compliment players on other teams.......maybe not you, but I've read enough here....

 

Preseason writers had the Twins odds on favorites to have the rookie of the year this year:

Buxton

Berrios

Park......

Tyler Naquin is far and away the leader right now. He's been great. What I'm saying is Kepler is right there with every other rookie hitter, and that's with a really low number of his hits falling in. There's still 70 or so games to go.