Article: Der Schlager Kepler Keeps Climbing

[bluechipper]

 

Sure, he is going to be good one, that became clear last year if not before, but i don't think he is going to be in ROY consideration - not even close.    

3rd or 4th place at this moment isn't even considered close?

[jimmer]

I think if we look at his spray chart, we might be able to identify why Kepler's BABiP is so low.  Focus on the blue dots in the OF and the plethora of green dots at the 2B/1B area.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=12144&position=OF&type=battedball

Edited July 21, 2016 by jimmer

[Seth Stohs]

 

is the rookie of the year based on the future, or what a player did? It's almost like it hurts some peoples' feelings to compliment players on other teams.......maybe not you, but I've read enough here....

 

 

It absolutely should be based on what the player did, not what he 'might have done' with more luck or something like that. 

[John Kelsey]

 

Tyler Naquin is far and away the leader right now. He's been great. What I'm saying is Kepler is right there with every other rookie hitter, and that's with a really low number of his hits falling in. There's still 70 or so games to go.

 

I'd have to disagree. Fulmer is the winner in a landslide right now. 

 

In terms of WAR, Kepler is second only to Naquin for hitters (1.3 to 1.2). Not too hard to imagine Kepler passing Naquin in that category before the season ends. 

[jimmer]

 

I'd have to disagree. Fulmer is the winner in a landslide right now. 

 

In terms of WAR, Kepler is second only to Naquin for hitters (1.3 to 1.2). Not too hard to imagine Kepler passing Naquin in that category before the season ends. 

You must be talking B-Reference WAR, right?

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, I don't know how anyone can argue anything other than Fulmer right now.

 

Kepler might be the best rookie hitter though.

[goulik]

I also think it's worth mentioning that Max Kepler was my Adopt-A-Prospect during his breakout season last year.

You did well but he was mine when he finally made it for good this year!

[bluechipper]

 

Yeah, I don't know how anyone can argue anything other than Fulmer right now.

 

Kepler might be the best rookie hitter though.

Fangraphs WAR has Naquin at 2.2 and Fulmer at 1.8. I'm not saying WAR is the final answer, but if it's close, I'm usually going to lean towards the position player. They have Kepler at only .5 WAR.

[TheLeviathan]

I could seriously care less about using WAR to judge pitcher vs. hitter.  That to me, again, is misusing the statistic.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I could seriously care less about using WAR to judge pitcher vs. hitter.  That to me, again, is misusing the statistic.

 

I don't understand. WAR is basically just a re-denominated count of runs created and prevented.

 

If a pitcher saves 10 runs over replacement with his pitching, and a position player saves 5 with defense and creates 5 with offense, it seems very reasonable to say their contribution was roughly equal.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't understand. WAR is basically just a re-denominated count of runs created and prevented.

 

If a pitcher saves 10 runs over replacement with his pitching, and a position player saves 5 with defense and creates 5 with offense, it seems very reasonable to say their contribution was roughly equal.

 

Pitching WAR and hitting WAR are composed of entirely different measures of performance.  If you want to use WAR in this case, the only way you should do that is by saying something to the effect of "Kepler is much better by WAR relative to other rookie hitters compared to how much better Fulmer is by WAR relative to other pitchers"  Otherwise you completely derailed in your use of the stat.  

 

And most of you are completely misusing it because you're comparing something barely better than saying 3.23 ERA < .350 OBP.  Barely.

Edited July 23, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[jimbo92107]

Great athlete, good student of the game. Kepler appears to be gradually gaining confidence in all aspects of his game at the mlb level. Unlike Rosario's first season, Kepler's approach at the plate is far more cautious, willing to take a walk, with a much smaller swing zone. This bodes very well for avoiding the sophomore slump suffered by Rosario and Vargas, both of whom were sent to AAA to reduce their high K rates. I don't see a major weakness in Kepler's hitting approach. His swing is quick, flat, and powerful. He appears very poised, before and after the swing. He doesn't fall off against lefties, and has been hitting righties about the same. 

 

In the field, Kepler is getting solid after some shaky moments early on. He is much better now at playing the carom off the right field wall, and he is getting very good at measuring his angles to fly balls. He still looks a little sloppy fielding grounders, but as he accumulates practice reps, I expect his grounder flubs will become rare. His arm appears to be about average, though I think his accuracy will improve on his throws to second, so he might catch a few guys trying to stretch singles. 

 

On the bases, Kepler so far has been pretty conservative, but his minor league career showed potential. He seems to be a technique-oriented player, so I suspect he will learn to steal bases about the way we saw with young Joe Mauer. Not as adventurous as Rosario, but probably a better percentage. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I also think it's worth mentioning that Max Kepler was my Adopt-A-Prospect during his breakout season last year.

Awesome!

Perhaps you'd be kind enough to adopt Byron Buxton next.

 

Please?

[h2oface]

Looking great in Boston...

[by jiminy]

I think if we look at his spray chart, we might be able to identify why Kepler's BABiP is so low.  Focus on the blue dots in the OF and the plethora of green dots at the 2B/1B area.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=12144&position=OF&type=battedball

 

Okay I looked, and I see a big cluster of ground outs to the right side of the infield. Is your interpretation that his babip is not low because of bad luck but because he grounds out too much?

[jimmer]

 

Okay I looked, and I see a big cluster of ground outs to the right side of the infield. Is your interpretation that his babip is not low because of bad luck but because he grounds out too much?

I'm saying, in this instance, seems the amount of easy fly balls as opposed to line drives (on top of the many grounders to the 1B-2B side) suggest his BABIP is a product of his swing more than just bad luck.  

 

So you know, I'm a huge Kepler fan, basically since we got him, so there's no trying to prove one thing over another here, just thinking that in this instance, it has more to do with his swing than anything else. BTW, his BABIP is improving.

Edited July 25, 2016 by jimmer

[twinssouth]

By season end, Kepler will be in running for ROY, he's that good. I also think his best long term position may be 1st

[drivlikejehu]

 

Pitching WAR and hitting WAR are composed of entirely different measures of performance.  If you want to use WAR in this case, the only way you should do that is by saying something to the effect of "Kepler is much better by WAR relative to other rookie hitters compared to how much better Fulmer is by WAR relative to other pitchers"  Otherwise you completely derailed in your use of the stat.  

 

And most of you are completely misusing it because you're comparing something barely better than saying 3.23 ERA < .350 OBP.  Barely.

 

The measures aren't entirely different, they are based on runs created/prevented against replacement level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I also think his best long term position may be 1st

Boy, that would be a real waste of athleticism.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The measures aren't entirely different, they are based on runs created/prevented against replacement level.

 

OBP and WHIP both measure how often you are/are not creating base runners.  You like comparing pitchers and hitters using them too?  

 

C'mon.  I kind of like WAR and you're making me resent the stat by how erroneously you're using it.