Arcia Traded to the Rays

[Otto von Ballpark]

Unless i am looking at things wrong, Arcia started 17 games in April 2015 and almost everyday after April 10th. He hit 250/310/365, good for 2 HR a .676 OPS playing almost exclusively LF and was placed on the DL on May 4th.

 

In that same time period, Shane Robinson played a mix of RF, CF and LF getting 42 PA, good for an OPS of .773. Escobar played in LF during 6 games in the month of April. Danny Santana played everyday at SS.

 

I am not seeing where he was benched for Robinson and infielders. I see him starting everyday for 3+ weeks, not hitting and then hitting the disabled list. After the disabled list he went to AAA and struggled.

 

 

Look at our lineups. 4 of his last 9 games here in 2015 before his injury, Arcia sat in favor of Robinson, Nunez, or Escobar.

 

Arcia's numbers weren't great at the time, but he had a 97 OPS+ and the lowest K rate of his career.

 

Coming off a strong finish in 2014, that is a curious way to deploy Arcia in early 2015. That, and keeping him down in June-July, suggests they were fairly clueless about how to best handle Arcia as an asset well before Arcia's performance became a problem.

[markos]

I think this trade is very telling of Arcia's value to the rest of the league. Even though he was available to all 29 other teams, the best* offer the Twins got was for a PTBNL or cash, which is basically the lowest offer a team can give. Teams around the league have figured out that 30-homer power, in and of itself, isn't terribly valuable. If a player doesn't have good plate discipline and/or some defensive value (which Arcia definitely does not**), then he needs a ridiculous amount of power (.300+ ISO, 50+ HRs) to make up for it. That difference is why Chris Davis is an MVP candidate and Pedro Alvarez gets non-tendered. 

 

* It is possible that there is some value/upside hiding behind the PTBNL. It could be that the player couldn't be named because he is currently can't be traded (like he is on the DL). Or it could be that the trade will depend on how much Arcia plays. 

 

** It is also worth pointing out that Arcia is quite an outlier with his plate discipline. Looking at players in the last 4 seasons with K% > 30%, BB% < 8% and ISO > .180, Arcia has been given the most PAs by a wide margin. He is at 967, while the next highest is Tim Beckham, the Rays occasional backup infielder, with 320. He gets a lot of grief for being so aggressive, and that is definitely a problem (his is consistently among the league leaders in swinging at pitches outside the zone). But it is also important to note that he is also among the worst in the league at making contact on strikes. He swings and misses 17% (roughly 1 in 6) of the time on pitches IN THE STRIKE ZONE.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think this trade is very telling of Arcia's value to the rest of the league. Even though he was available to all 29 other teams, the best* offer the Twins got was for a PTBNL or cash, which is basically the lowest offer a team can give.

why is it very telling? What was Tampa Bay's waiver priority. Pretty low but I'm not sure exactly where. I would think if any team had more than a passing interest in Arcia they would just wait to claim him, if available.

 

I also think you give the Twins too much credit for receiving fair value back in the trades they do make. (or have made since Ryan returned)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I completely agree this topic has been beaten to death (hate that metaphor, but whatever). I'm glad I'm not the only one who can't let it go yet. A team doesn't get to 23-50 on one bad decision. It takes consistenly poor decision making to get this bad. The overall handling of Arcia's career and his inevitable release qualifies as bad decision making, in my opinion. And at this moment, the Twins are in most need of a DH to spell Park. Doesn't matter this year, I realize. Arcia's bat and definitely his glove can be replaced. But I enjoyed seeing a player with passion and confidence on this team as much as anything he did on the field. Oh well.

picking nits but he was traded for a ptbnl or cash

[Major League Ready]

 

For me, choosing D Santana over Arcia is the big deal.... 

 

They might play the same position but they are completely different players with completely different roles.  I was very big on giving Arcia a chance to stick but the choice was not between Santana and Arcia.  It was between Arcia and Kepler, Grossman, Rosario, Palka, Vargas, and ABW and maybe even Harrison.  All the talk about roster construction here and then roster construction goes right out the window in this case.  
 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think this trade is very telling of Arcia's value to the rest of the league.

Has anyone disputed that Arcia's value is low right now? He was DFA'd, that rarely happens to players with decent value.

 

The debate is, did the Twins do enough to try to improve his vale over the past year and a half? And if his value is this low right now, what's the point in casting him off while he is still making the league minimum? Seems to be the opposite of how they approach most low value players (of whom they have had many in recent years).

[Otto von Ballpark]

They might play the same position but they are completely different players with completely different roles. I was very big on giving Arcia a chance to stick but the choice was not between Santana and Arcia. It was between Arcia and Kepler, Grossman, Rosario, Palka, Vargas, and ABW and maybe even Harrison. All the talk about roster construction here and then roster construction goes right out the window in this case.

 

If this was the off season or next spring, I'd agree, but most of those names are irrelevant to Arcia's situation right now, how it has been for the past few months, and how it would have likely been for the next few months.

 

It may not be exactly Santana vs Arcia, but it is very likely Santana/Park/Plouffe over Arcia at the moment. (Plouffe being a lame duck 3B, likely pushing Sano and even Nunez into the DH spot)

[jimmer]

Since some people still seem to be confused why the debate CAN be Santana or Arcia without it being a mess up of roster construction:

 

Santana doesn't just play CF.He's plays corners too. And he's playing OF not IF. If Santana was gone instead of Arcia, all that would mean is that Buxton and Kepler would be 1-2 for CF with Arcia taking a corner spot when he played (or LH DH).

So, instead of Buxton, Santana, Kepler and Grossman, it'd be Buxton, Arcia, Kepler and Grossman.Leaves two people who can play CF and 4 OF who can play corner (with Rosario eventually, who can also play all 3 spots)

It's not that hard to figure out why people are asking why are we keeping Santana over Arcia.  Especially since only one would be a good option for pinch hitting and that's not Santana.

[ashbury]

hmm. looks like arcia's self-sabotage paid off extremely well.

Is getting exiled to Tampa Bay's franchise currently any player's dream?

[Thrylos]

Three words:

 

Free Daniel Palka

 

 

(the Twins need LH power big time...)

[h2oface]

I never, ever, use fielding % or errors when taking into account defense. I still see him a a good defender who could end up being a very good OF.

Really. OK. Well, it wasn't officially ruled an error, but according to Kepler, it was, and he is not proud or happy about his performance, and he is certainly taking it into account.

 

So could a player have 40 errors and still be considered a good defender? (Is there an arbitrary number in this evaluation system that errors do matter?) I have tried not to see this particular play, but it just keeps being real, and it did happen. I will work on the selective ignoring. It just might make me a happier fan.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is getting exiled to Tampa Bay's franchise currently any player's dream?

Their stadium is air conditioned, so... maybe?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Is getting exiled to Tampa Bay's franchise currently any player's dream?

From paradise to exile, no doubt.

[jokin]

 

Really. OK. Well, it wasn't officially ruled an error, but according to Kepler, it was, and he is not proud or happy about his performance, and he is certainly taking it into account.

So could a player have 40 errors and still be considered a good defender? (Is there an arbitrary number in this evaluation system that errors do matter?) I have tried not to see this particular play, but it just keeps being real, and it did happen. I will work on the selective ignoring. It just might make me a happier fan.

 

Yeah, it was a bonehead mistake, but thus far, it's a fairly isolated event, and can just as easily be chalked up to a rookie mistake, but also one that could happen to anyone, at least once or twice a year, especially in an unfamiliar ballpark. I really think you're taking things a step too far to make it your defining moment for Kepler's supposed limits as a RFer. (Now granted, if he make 2 or 3 more similar major misjudgements of flyball trajectory this summer, I'll happily join you in your assessment, I just haven't seen the type of poor routes that Hicks all too persistently took in his time with the Twins as a rookie).

[DJSim22]

A one tool player who either has lost the one tool he had, or the league figured out how to pitch to him and he never adjusted.  I guess Tampa could straighten him out, maybe a change of scenery will be good for him.  He was downright awful here, and I question anyone's sanity who actually thought he should be anything more than a DH/PH.  Add to that, not only was he striking out 45% of the time, but they were some pretty brutal give away at-bats where he didn't even challenge the pitcher and looked like he had zero plan at the plate. 

 

Seemed like a good teammate and a decent kid, so I wish him well. 

[DaveW]

The Twins are on pace for 115+ losses and their 5th 90 loss season in the last 6 years. How anyone can give the franchise the benefit of the doubt when these do these dumb and unnecessary moves is hilarious, sad and perplexing all at the same time.

 

This team is clueless and has no real plan, idea, etc on how to right the ship. Sending guys up and down to AAA after every bad or good game and cutting guys like Arcia when it wasn't even close to needed shows it.

 

I hope Arcia hits 20 bombs the rest of the way for the Rays, just to show the Pohlads reason 545 why they need new leadership across the board in this org.

[jimmer]

 

Really. OK. Well, it wasn't officially ruled an error, but according to Kepler, it was, and he is not proud or happy about his performance, and he is certainly taking it into account.

So could a player have 40 errors and still be considered a good defender? (Is there an arbitrary number in this evaluation system that errors do matter?) I have tried not to see this particular play, but it just keeps being real, and it did happen. I will work on the selective ignoring. It just might make me a happier fan.

Me not taking into account fielding % and errors has nothing to do with selective ignoring.  

 

For one thing, we'll start with how subjective the whole 'what is and isn't an error' really is.  A good example might be the play you are talking about.  You think it was an error, scorer says no.  How about the inside the park home run we had earlier this year where the ball bounced in and out of the outfielder's glove?  Most might say that's an error, but it wasn't counted as such.

 

And then lets ask what fielding % and errors tell us (even if the scorer decision was right every time). Does error and fielding % tell us how much range a player has?  What about how good his routes to the ball are? How about how good his arm is?  Or what about whether he hits the cutoff guy well or not? Ad so on and so on for OF.  IF has some of the similar questions with a few added.  

 

So yeah, me not putting too much stock in error and fielding % to judge a person's defense isn't selective anything, it comes from plan old common sense.  I have no issues believing Kiermaier (5 errors) and Pillar (2 errors) were probably the two best defensive CFs last year with Cain (10 errors) close behind.  Those guys get to a ton of baseballs others only dream about getting to.

 

P.S. And if one wants to take errors and fielding % as gospel to judge defense, then the Kepler play shouldn't be taken into account at all, since it wasn't an error.

[h2oface]

Not gospel. Heavens no! Just a part of the picture. Just one of the many parts of the picture. I always feel free to correct the pathetic scorers in my memory too. That helps.

[h2oface]

I have been convinced to let myself give Arcia's replacement a redefining moment(s). No jokin. It sure was a jaw dropper, though. May the Kepleration of right field continue and prosper.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I know people have been arguing that Arcia should have been kept over Santana, but to me, I still feel like Grossman over Arcia was the dubious choice. Arcia has better numbers in the minors and the majors, is younger, and has been with the organization since he was a teenager. Grossman was given more ABs this year than Arcia, because he got hot for a few weeks. He's now in the process of returning to his career averages.

[ashbury]

Arcia's Rays career begins with a Negative-37 OPS+ performance in his first two games. That whooshing sound you hear is the sigh of relief from Terry Ryan's office, no doubt.

[jokin]

 

Arcia's Rays career begins with a Negative-37 OPS+ performance in his first two games. That whooshing sound you hear is the sigh of relief from Terry Ryan's office, no doubt.

 

Based on how Arcia was treated by the Twins all season, I doubt they even bothered to check the Rays box scores.

[ashbury]

Based on how Arcia was treated by the Twins all season, I doubt they even bothered to check the Rays box scores.

OK, so maybe the whooshing sound was my sarcasm...

[ryanschroeder2]

Well that didnt take long low and outside pitch to left center field for a yard sale. He is 2 for 2 today

[jud6312]

Make that 3 for 3 with 3 RBI.

[ryanschroeder2]

3 for 3 with 3 rbi sounds about right way to go Arcia!!

[notoriousgod71]

 

Make that 3 for 3 with 3 RBI.

 

He is just going to terrorize the Twins every time he faces them.

[ashbury]

Arcia's Rays career begins with a Negative-37 OPS+ performance in his first two games. That whooshing sound you hear is the sigh of relief from Terry Ryan's office, no doubt.

We just got done discussing jinxes in today's Game Thread, so I am afraid I may have some splainin to do, regarding today's Arcia onslaught.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Well that didnt take long low and outside pitch to left center field for a yard sale. He is 2 for 2 today

yeah but how was the rest of the at bat before the homer?

[ashbury]

yeah but how was the rest of the at bat before the homer?

I was trying to glean from the play-by-play some evidence that Arcia's defense was responsible for a few of the Orioles' 8 runs, but lefty Smyly seemed to be resolute in his intention to keep the ball out of Ozzie's hands and directed everything toward left field (deep). How boringly conventional of him.