Realistic trade deadline moves?

[TheLeviathan]

I seriously can't believe people are advocating trading Max Kepler right now.  Am I in some kind of cruel Twilight Zone episode?

[jimmer]

 

When did they go back to "accurate" because they were clearly off-calibration from about November-February?

If not much farther of a time period.  The players Ryan has acquired since he's been back, and the extensions he's given, puts a lot of his decision making in question.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, I was trying to be as kind/fair as possible given how far out in crazy town some of these ideas are.

[gunnarthor]

 

I seriously can't believe people are advocating trading Max Kepler right now.  Am I in some kind of cruel Twilight Zone episode?

Well, that seems aimed at me.  I'm not advocating for it.  I merely stating that he's probably our best realistic trade chip (assuming that Sano/Buxton/Berrios are off limits).  The Twins do have some depth in the corners.  So for those who clamor that the Twins don't make proactive trades, he's your guy.  If the Twins could get back a guy like Profar for Kepler (and something else), that might be worth it, even with the loss of years of control.  

[gunnarthor]

 

When did they go back to "accurate" because they were clearly off-calibration from about November-February?

I suspect it was the fans who thought the offseason trade of Plouffe would bring back quite the haul.  

[gunnarthor]

 

Unless you have been watching a different team than me this season, Sano can clearly not be "put in a corner OF spot"... in fact the GM appears to agree with me as it sounds unlikely he will spend much more time out there.  

 

If you want to go into 2017 with an OF of Rosario, Buxton, Grossmann... prepare to lose a LOT of games.  

 

FWIW, I liked the Grossman signing, and would continue to play him.  But to act like an OF that includes him and Rosario is stocked enough to trade Kepler is insane

 

Harrison and Walker are not prospects.  Have you seen Walker try to play OF?

Sure, moving Kepler would potentially weaken the OF - although his defense in RF has looked a lot worse than I expected.  But the assumption would be that the Twins team with an OF of Grossman/Buxton/Rosario + Kepler trade chip could be better than Grossman/Buxton/Kepler.  Sort of depends on the trade chip.  But for those who are complaining that the Twins won't do a big trade, Kepler's your only chip.

[jimmer]

I am watching different games than some.  Kepler's defense has been fine.  Good even.  And when compared to the last RF Ryan decided should play regularly there, he's been Heyward by comparison.

[alarp33]

 

Sure, moving Kepler would potentially weaken the OF - although his defense in RF has looked a lot worse than I expected.  But the assumption would be that the Twins team with an OF of Grossman/Buxton/Rosario + Kepler trade chip could be better than Grossman/Buxton/Kepler.  Sort of depends on the trade chip.  But for those who are complaining that the Twins won't do a big trade, Kepler's your only chip.

 

I'm curious where you got this notion that people are clamoring for the Twins to make a "big trade".  I've certainly not seen it on this board... the team is 23-49, and next year likely won't be a whole ton better.  Why in the world would they trade a potential star OFer for say, a #2 starter with a couple years of team control... so they can win 75 instead of 72 games next season?

 

People are clamoring for the Twins to trade players that have no long term future here. Like Plouffe, Nunez, etc.  

[gunnarthor]

 

 

People are clamoring for the Twins to trade players that have no long term future here. Like Plouffe, Nunez, etc.  

Sure, those would be good guys to trade.  Perhaps people aren't clamoring for big trades.  

[Vanimal46]

 

Sure, those would be good guys to trade.  Perhaps people aren't clamoring for big trades.  

People were clamoring for a big trade last year. Myself included. This year, not so much. I do agree with you though that Kepler is the trade chip that makes the most sense to move when the team gets back on the right track. 

[DaveW]

Has Zunio fallen so much as a prospect that he could realistically be had for Nunez?

It wouldn't take a whole lot to get Zunino, but Nunez to the Mariners doesn't make much sense. Seager, Cano and Marte are all going to start over him.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I'm going to guess that Terry gets caught up on his emails and decides to do something nice for the fans...by trading for Tulo. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm going to guess that Terry gets caught up on his emails and decides to do something nice for the fans...by trading for Tulo. 

TR in his office, July 16, 2015....

TR: "Hey Cindy, could you send me a calendar invite to speak to the Rockies GM next week? Perhaps we could get a deal on Tulo."

 

Cindy: "Certainly, Terry. I'll send it shortly."

*Cindy types out calendar invite for July 21, 2016 which TR blindly accepts.*

 

This is all starting to make a TON of sense.....

[TheLeviathan]

 

I suspect it was the fans who thought the offseason trade of Plouffe would bring back quite the haul.  

 

What about those of us that just wanted him gone?

 

No one is asking for a big trade.  We're asking to move guys that don't have a long-term place here and are in the way of a better roster.  Kepler is not part of any of those groups.

[Jham]

What about those of us that just wanted him gone?

 

No one is asking for a big trade. We're asking to move guys that don't have a long-term place here and are in the way of a better roster. Kepler is not part of any of those groups.

Sort of assuming the posters know who will be the better player, when the team will be relevant again, and that the young players will actually be good players or better than the guys in front of them. I'm actually advocating for making tough decisions based on some projection. But it has to be smart and not just based on age. Polanco is unlikely to be as good as Dozier over a career. Odds that Kep ever makes an all star team? I just don't want a youth movement that ends up in 3 years being set up for another youth movement with our currently young players "blossoming" into flawed arb eligibles with little trade value. I'm willing to part with players who have value on the market and risk getting burned if it means we're at least trying to accumulate more rostered talent or better prospects.

[jimmer]

I don't want to trade Kepler.  I think he's a future very good player.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sort of assuming the posters know who will be the better player, when the team will be relevant again, and that the young players will actually be good players or better than the guys in front of them. I'm actually advocating for making tough decisions based on some projection. But it has to be smart and not just based on age. Polanco is unlikely to be as good as Dozier over a career. Odds that Kep ever makes an all star team? I just don't want a youth movement that ends up in 3 years being set up for another youth movement with our currently young players "blossoming" into flawed arb eligibles with little trade value. I'm willing to part with players who have value on the market and risk getting burned if it means we're at least trying to accumulate more rostered talent or better prospects.

 

You're working from at least one very flawed assumption: Polanco's career vs. Dozier isn't happening at the same time.  Their age, team control, and other factors make a difference for how you plan.  So while we shouldn't plan solely based on age, it has to be a huge factor.

 

Throwing multiple assets at one player doesn't help us get better.  We need to improve the number of assets we have, not deal four quarters and hope for a dollar.  We need to keep the quarters and turn them into dollars themselves.  What you're advocating is extremely dicey.

[AJswarley]

It wouldn't take a whole lot to get Zunino, but Nunez to the Mariners doesn't make much sense. Seager, Cano and Marte are all going to start over him.

And they have no utility guy*

[S.]

 

Odds that Kep ever makes an all star team?

I don't understand using the all star game as any sort of indication of skill. Kurt Suzuki made the all star team. If each team didn't have to have representatives, the Twins wouldn't be sending anyone this year, or plenty of other years in the past.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, that seems aimed at me. I'm not advocating for it. I merely stating that he's probably our best realistic trade chip (assuming that Sano/Buxton/Berrios are off limits). The Twins do have some depth in the corners. So for those who clamor that the Twins don't make proactive trades, he's your guy. If the Twins could get back a guy like Profar for Kepler (and something else), that might be worth it, even with the loss of years of control.

Sorry but I disagree on this depth.

In fact I see it as a pretty big dry spot.

 

Rosario and Grossman have ceilings of 4th outfielder IMO, and ABW, Palka and Harrison will likely never see more than a cup of coffee.

[Rosterman]

Face it. The Twins phones will not be ringing. Other teams will assume that the Twins will be jettisoning guys left and right by mid-off-season. Or they will continue to hang-on to guys that they hope will increase in value, blocking space for the Twins of the future.

 

We aren't talking about 2017 here, folks. We are talking about 2018 and beyond, and we still have some bi contracts in that season - Santana, Mauer, Park, Hughes - guys who COULD still increase in value if we need to reboot via a trade market.

 

The Twins hopes are three: (1) Players drafted and rising in the organization play out (2) They have monies to make a free agent splash (if they can convince people to come here and play) (3) Getting lucky with continued waiver-wire grabs and organizational castoffs (which you do every year as long as you got the space in the minors).

 

Dashing those hopes: (1) How many players remain from each of the past 5 seasons from the drafts in the Twins organization, where are they, and which were worth the bonus money paid (2) You have to over-pay mid level guys or totally blow a top-flight free agent out-of-here (3) How much effort SHOULD a team be spending on scouting players that can't make the major league rosters of other teams but you somehow have space for those players on yours?

 

Right now, the Twins have a lot of veteran talent that would be filler, not starters, for pretty much any team. A team needs the player to replace (temporarily) someone injured. If a team needs to absorb salary or contract years, there are viable alternates, especially as the season reaches towards the end of July and more teams fall out of competition for 2016 and are willing to possibly move players at a better price than the Twins would possibly conceive for their own players.

 

The fate of ALL Twins vets that MAY NOT have a place here come 2018 is in their hands. They need to produce for Minnesota and themselves to get a team taker, or a contract for next year. It's as simple as that. 

[laloesch]

 

Unless you have been watching a different team than me this season, Sano can clearly not be "put in a corner OF spot"... in fact the GM appears to agree with me as it sounds unlikely he will spend much more time out there.  

 

If you want to go into 2017 with an OF of Rosario, Buxton, Grossmann... prepare to lose a LOT of games.  

 

FWIW, I liked the Grossman signing, and would continue to play him.  But to act like an OF that includes him and Rosario is stocked enough to trade Kepler is insane

 

Harrison and Walker are not prospects.  Have you seen Walker try to play OF?

 

 

Suppose Kepler develops into an effective outfielder and the Twins stick with Buxton, what happens to Rosario and Grossman?  Does the lesser of the two become the 4th outfielder?  What does this mean for Danny Santana?  Part of the Twins dilemma from my perspective is that no-one has really stepped forward yet and claimed an outfield spot decisively (Kepler might be the exception).  I think that some of the frustration with Arcia and ultimately why he was traded was that he was not particularly good at anything.  I also think that if Buxton and or Rosario step up Santana could be the next to go, especially if Polanco is given the chance he deserves in the infield.     

[jimmer]

 

Suppose Kepler develops into an effective outfielder and the Twins stick with Buxton, what happens to Rosario and Grossman?  Does the lesser of the two become the 4th outfielder?  What does this mean for Danny Santana?  Part of the Twins dilemma from my perspective is that no-one has really stepped forward yet and claimed an outfield spot decisively (Kepler might be the exception).  I think that some of the frustration with Arcia and ultimately why he was released was that he was not particularly good at anything.  I also think that if Buxton and or Rosario step up Santana could be the next to go, especially if Polanco is given the chance he deserves in the infield.     

Rosario will be nothing more than a 4th OF.  Fields okay, won't hit/get on base enough to hold down a regular job. Our new Punto, OF version.

[Twinfan & Dad]

When you have a cluster**** like we do, NOBODY is untouchable. If teams call let them talk.

[S.]

 

When you have a cluster**** like we do, NOBODY is untouchable. If teams call let them talk.

Sano and Berrios are off limits in my book. Beyond that, lets hear the offers.

[shs_59]

My thoughts ( similar thoughts/ ideas going right now)

 

Early July  Trade

- Eduardo Nunez, Alex Meyer, and Tommy Millone (if he picks it up here)

 

to Astros

for:   AAA RHP  Joe Musgrove and a PTBL or cash considerations (maybe Gregerson by August)

 

Late July at the Deadline
Offer up:

Trevor Plouffe, Michael Tonkin, Randy Rosario (A+ LHP) , and J.R. Murphy
(I was hoping this would happen before we gave Oswaldo Arcia away to T.B. so we could include/ intice Oswaldo to them for some marginal value)

 

to Milwakuee

for Catcher Jonathan LuCroy and hope to sign him moderate length contract (only catcher in baseball that ranks ahead of Salvador Perez, WIlson Ramos, and Matt Weiters behind only Buster Posey)

 

Off-season

Trade Ricky Nolasco and $5 MM to Oakland A's or San Diego Padres for a PTBL or Cash (a C prospect)

Oakland would effectively get Nolasco on a 7 Million dollar 1 year deal - not too bad at all for them.

Sign Vet LHP Cliff Lee to a $7.5MM 1 yr deal with incentives to spike it upwards of 10 or 11 million.

 

the 2017 Twins

1. CF Buxton
2. 2B Dozier
3. 1B Mauer
4. 3B Sano
5. C     LuCroy
6. RF Kepler
7. DH Vargas/ Park (-park is my preference)
8. LF Rosario
9. SS Polanco/ Escobar
bench:
Escobar, Santana, Centeno, and Grossman.

 

other 40 roster options, Catchers Stu Turner and Mitch Garver, 1B/RF/DH Dan Palka, DH Vargas, SS Engelb Vielma, OF A.B. Walker

 

Rotation:
1.Kyle Gibson - (a hope and a prayer)
2. Cliff Lee
3. Ervin Santana
4. Joe Musgrove
5. J.O. Berrios

 

AAA :  Tyler Duffey, Pat Dean, Logan Darnell, DJ Baxendale, Aaron Slegers, Jason Wheeler , Ryan Eades?

 

Bullpen:
CL- Gregerson or Greg Holland?
SU - Chargois
SU - Pressly
SL - May
SL - Abad  ( signs a 1 yr $3.25 MM pact)
MR - Hughes
LR - Taylor Rogers

 

AAA: Glen Perkins, Niel Ramirez, Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, Mason Melotakis, Trevor Hildenburger, Alex Wimmers, Wheeler ect.

 

other 40 man roster options include:

Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, and Yorman Landa (what to do with Felix Jorge?)

[Twinfan & Dad]

Sano,Buxton,Berrios,Kepler for Mike Trout. The Angels would want more and why wouldn't we listen. We need a Star not hopeful someday maybe stars. Trout has a no trade clause so won't happen but my point is we don't have anyone that is untouchable. I would do this trade in a heartbeat.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No way in the world that the Brewers would accept that package for Lucroy.

 

At his current level, no way in the world anyone willingly pays Nolasco $7 mil next year either. If he was a free agent, he'd probably get $2 mil tops.

[nicksaviking]

Yep, Boshers will get traded for org filler.

So a push?

[Twinfan & Dad]

We have a star. His name is Joe Mauer. And look where that got us. Man, if anyone would offer us a decent package for Joe, should the Twins take it?

YES we should but don't hold your breath for the incoming offers.