Buxton

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

Really, really don't understand the constant attempts to compare Buxton to Trout. 

 

Just now reading this:  "What I would do for sure is time it so his first three games are against the 3, 4, and 5  guys, preferably on a weak team."  Seriously?  If the players name was anything other than Byron Buxton, would you promote this player?

 

 

Comparisons to Trout are just anecdotal in terms of adjusting to higher levels of play.   I hope so anyway.    I don't compare him to anyone.    He seems fairly unique.      I don't get your next paragraph.     It wasn't a push to promote him at any given time but rather to give him the best chance for early success when they do promote him..    Its just my opinion that Valencia had a great year in 2010 partly because he got some weak infield and seeing eye hits early which allowed him to relax a little bit about his batting average.     I don't think bringing Hicks up north in 2014 was any big mistake by the Twins but having him face arguably three of the best pitchers in the AL to start out the season did him no favors.     There is a difference between major league and minor league pitchers and a much larger gap between minor league pitchers and elite major league pitchers.     Whether the minor league player is named Buxton or any one else I think it is a good idea to give them the best shot at early success in terms of when to promote them.   Seriously!

[John Kelsey]

OPS up to 1.019 now. That's pretty darn impressive, but I still wouldn't be in a rush to bring him back up; two or three more weeks at least. 

[Thrylos]

Buxton's slash line etc are irrelevant unless he proves that he can hit (or lay off) good quality breaking balls.  

 

All I would look for right now are BBs and Ks.  In 109 AAA PAs he has 9 BBs and 24 Ks.  This makes me think that he is not there with his issue yet and will get killed (again) in the bigs.

[alarp33]

 

Buxton's slash line etc are irrelevant unless he proves that he can hit (or lay off) good quality breaking balls.  

 

All I would look for right now are BBs and Ks.  In 109 AAA PAs he has 9 BBs and 24 Ks.  This makes me think that he is not there with his issue yet and will get killed (again) in the bigs.

 

Just to get this straight.  Its irrelevant what he does in AAA until he can hit a good (Major League?) breaking ball.  BUT, lets look at AAA at some stats like 24 k's in 113 plate appearances to deduce he still can't hit a good breaking ball yet.  Just curious, how many of those K's were on good breaking balls? How many of the 15 extra base hits in 103 at bats were off good breaking balls? When do you suggest calling him up, because I'm not sure he can reach your standard of learning to hit a ML breaking ball in AAA... never?

 

FWIW, he has 13 K's in his last 79 (11 in 1st 34 this year) AAA plate appearances, not a bad number at all and people seem to love small sample sizes when it comes to Buxton.  

 

 

[mazeville]

 

Nobody is worried about Buxton's minor league K rate.  We were worried about why his MLB K rate was so absurdly high and rising, and after that, whether we could trust his future minor league K rates.  Trout's debut MLB K rate was 22.2%, perfectly in line with his minor league marks at the time.

 

Um ... LOTS of people are worried about Buxton's minor league K rate, especially since he's gone down to AAA. You not worrying about it doesn't mean nobody is worrying about it.

 

But the only way you find out if he can improve on his major league K rate is to have him with the big club. I'd imagine that will happen with a couple of more weeks of AAA dominance. It's getting awfully difficult to ignore his performance.

 

My guess is that the Twins spent too much time messing with Buxton and the result was an increase in strikeouts to an already strikeout-prone hitter. Also, he probably wasn't ready to begin with.

[mazeville]

 

Buxton's slash line etc are irrelevant unless he proves that he can hit (or lay off) good quality breaking balls.  

 

All I would look for right now are BBs and Ks.  In 109 AAA PAs he has 9 BBs and 24 Ks.  This makes me think that he is not there with his issue yet and will get killed (again) in the bigs.

 

Wow. Kid has a four-figure OPS, just hit his sixth homer of the minor league season and now has a .340 batting average ... but we're focused only on those 24 strikeouts? Many of which occurred when he first went down?

 

There's no guarantee that he will suddenly thrive in the major leagues. But he's clearly figured something out at AAA. He's cut down on the strikeouts and he's hitting the cover off of the ball right now. He's doing exactly what is asked. It's OK to be optimistic.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Buxton's slash line etc are irrelevant unless he proves that he can hit (or lay off) good quality breaking balls.  

 

All I would look for right now are BBs and Ks.  In 109 AAA PAs he has 9 BBs and 24 Ks.  This makes me think that he is not there with his issue yet and will get killed (again) in the bigs.

So this difficult of hitting good quality breaking balls is what is causing the .500 point OPS differential between AAA and Majors?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Um ... LOTS of people are worried about Buxton's minor league K rate, especially since he's gone down to AAA. You not worrying about it doesn't mean nobody is worrying about it.

Perhaps I phrased it poorly.  The only reason why the K rate is being noted is because we were all scared by his insane MLB K rate.  I guess some people think the only way to feel confident about that trend reversing is to see a really low K rate in AAA, but I think most of us understand there is more to it than that.

 

His career minor league K rate is 20%.  That's roughly where it is at right now at AAA too.  That's where your example Trout was at this stage of his career.  Nobody here will be the least bit concerned if Buxton continues to post a 20% K rate and AAA as long as he comes back to MLB and posts something like a 20% K rate, in fact we'd probably all be ecstatic.

 

I pretty much agree with your plan -- give him a little more time at AAA until you're sure he's comfortable, confident, and committed to whatever approach/stance/swing he is using, but the big hurdle will be in MLB again, and we're going to have to face that sooner or later.

[Vanimal46]

Eno Sarris chat on Fangraphs today:

 

12:04  A. Reitz: Buxton is raking again in AAA. He has to come up soon right? It’s not like he’ll be costing the Twins games…

12:04 Eno Sarris: Of course. But. Uh. I don’t understand the Twins so much.

Welcome to our nightmare, Eno. 

[mazeville]

 

Perhaps I phrased it poorly.  The only reason why the K rate is being noted is because we were all scared by his insane MLB K rate.  I guess some people think the only way to feel confident about that trend reversing is to see a really low K rate in AAA, but I think most of us understand there is more to it than that.

 

His career minor league K rate is 20%.  That's roughly where it is at right now at AAA too.  That's where your example Trout was at this stage of his career.  Nobody here will be the least bit concerned if Buxton continues to post a 20% K rate and AAA as long as he comes back to MLB and posts something like a 20% K rate, in fact we'd probably all be ecstatic.

 

I pretty much agree with your plan -- give him a little more time at AAA until you're sure he's comfortable, confident, and committed to whatever approach/stance/swing he is using, but the big hurdle will be in MLB again, and we're going to have to face that sooner or later.

 

Right. We won't know how his skills translate until he returns to the major leagues. I think it's pretty much a given that he can hit AAA pitching. 

[Ncgo4]

This. Whenever he is up he better damn well be in the lineup every day for the rest of the season.  No more of the 3 days on, 1 day off crap that they gave him in early April.

 

+1. The most frustrating thing was to see him and Max on the bench whilst losing like dogs. A total waste of talent development time. It's almost like Ryan says "We'll call 'em up." Then Molly says, "Do what you want, my job is to win". Nuts, I tells ya.

[spinowner]

 

Maybe a better comparison than Trout is Torii Hunter. That last trip down to AAA for Hunter produced an OPS of 1.130 over 55 games. 

Except that Hunter was 24 years old at the time.

[Thrylos]

 

Just to get this straight.  Its irrelevant what he does in AAA until he can hit a good (Major League?) breaking ball.  BUT, lets look at AAA at some stats like 24 k's in 113 plate appearances to deduce he still can't hit a good breaking ball yet.  Just curious, how many of those K's were on good breaking balls? How many of the 15 extra base hits in 103 at bats were off good breaking balls? When do you suggest calling him up, because I'm not sure he can reach your standard of learning to hit a ML breaking ball in AAA... never?

 

FWIW, he has 13 K's in his last 79 (11 in 1st 34 this year) AAA plate appearances, not a bad number at all and people seem to love small sample sizes when it comes to Buxton.  

 

a. He is not walking enough

b. Very few AAA pitchers have good breaking balls.

c. I'd love to see his slash line against breaking balls because his total does not matter.

 

We are talking about a player with one huge flaw.  He needs to fix that one, because MLB pitching will eat him alive (again).  It is irrelevant how well he can hit AAA fastballs, even if his OPS were 1500.

 

In other words, if you were selling razors, you would not sell to a guy who cannot grow his beard no matter how long his hair were.  

[Kwak]

There's ​no rush ​to return  Buxton to the Twins--they are a last place team and will remain there.  A September callup is preferred that way Buxton will have experienced peaks and valleys in Rochester. A rapid promotion gives the "all clear" signal--and that has not been established.  Example:  Arcia. He would get demoted, tear things up in AAA, return to the Twins--and stink it up again! Patience folks there is no season to save like last year when he was promoted.

[Mr. Brooks]

There's ​no rush ​to return Buxton to the Twins--they are a last place team and will remain there. A September callup is preferred that way Buxton will have experienced peaks and valleys in Rochester. A rapid promotion gives the "all clear" signal--and that has not been established. Example: Arcia. He would get demoted, tear things up in AAA, return to the Twins--and stink it up again! Patience folks there is no season to save like last year when he was promoted.

I don't think you want to quite wait until September.

Ideally you'd like to get him a baseline of success established before going into next season.

 

I don't think one month against September call ups is enough to do that.

 

Unless he starts to struggle, I think around July 15th would be a good balance.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's ​no rush ​to return  Buxton to the Twins--they are a last place team and will remain there.  A September callup is preferred that way Buxton will have experienced peaks and valleys in Rochester. A rapid promotion gives the "all clear" signal--and that has not been established.  Example:  Arcia. He would get demoted, tear things up in AAA, return to the Twins--and stink it up again! Patience folks there is no season to save like last year when he was promoted.

 

How will you know if he's ready next year, if he doesn't face MLB pitching again this year? Or, are you willing not to know that, and go out and sign a real CF? They can gather data in July and August, and have more confidence one way or the other, in his readiness.

[alarp33]

a. He is not walking enough

b. Very few AAA pitchers have good breaking balls.

c. I'd love to see his slash line against breaking balls because his total does not matter.

 

We are talking about a player with one huge flaw.  He needs to fix that one, because MLB pitching will eat him alive (again).  It is irrelevant how well he can hit AAA fastballs, even if his OPS were 1500.

 

In other words, if you were selling razors, you would not sell to a guy who cannot grow his beard no matter how long his hair were.

 

You didn't really clear up what I was confused by. How do you suggest he "learn to hit a good breaking ball" if he's only seeing "aaa fastballs"?.

 

Sure if his walk rate was 14% instead of 8% it would be great, but he's getting on base nearly 40% of the time and slugging almost .600. I'm really unclear why people keep wanting to move the goalposts when it comes to Buxton, Go ahead and disagree with me in when he should come back up (I say sooner than later, couple weeks), but don't act like what he is doing in AAA right now is just meh.

[Kwak]

It's a start.  Wait--a let's see  he handles slumps.  Has Buxton changed his hitting process--or is he just feasting on poor pitching? We don't know. I'm aware how many posters want to see him succeed, and the subsequent rush to judgement over some good results. But the point of sending Buxton down was to accomplish more than rebuild confidence on hitting straight fast balls. The ability to work through rough patches is crucial--and clearly was a skill not displayed while with the Twins. That must be learned and exhibited. There is no rush to return. The Twins season is in the toilet anyway. Being in a clubhouse with this level of negativity isn't the place to be at this point in his career.  September is just fine!

[IndianaTwin]

I think they should bring him up by June 19. No logical reason, but I'm from Indiana and am getting tickets.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

Any thought they may call up Buxton tomorrow to take the Neil Allen DWI off the front page of the sports section?

 

Buxton being recalled won't take the Allen arrest off the front page of the sports section. I doubt the move itself would even warrant being the second story on the front office. Not after the way Buxton hit when he was up earlier.

[jokin]

 

It's a start.  Wait--a let's see  he handles slumps.  Has Buxton changed his hitting process--or is he just feasting on poor pitching? We don't know. I'm aware how many posters want to see him succeed, and the subsequent rush to judgement over some good results. But the point of sending Buxton down was to accomplish more than rebuild confidence on hitting straight fast balls. The ability to work through rough patches is crucial--and clearly was a skill not displayed while with the Twins. That must be learned and exhibited. There is no rush to return. The Twins season is in the toilet anyway. Being in a clubhouse with this level of negativity isn't the place to be at this point in his career.  September is just fine!

 

One distinctive difference in May is the sudden power surge- versus his accustomed minor league MO more along the lines of turning outs into singles, singles turned into doubles, doubles into triples.

 

Whatever they're teaching him in Rochester, more power usually ultimately translates to more Ks, not less- so I'm not certain what exactly is being accomplished here? Have they given up, at least for the time being, of having Buxton becoming their ultimate High-OBP leadoff guy?

[tobi0040]

I would watch the breaking balls as others point out, but also his numbers with two strikes (where he coincidentally sees a lot of breaking balls).

 

When he had two strikes up here, the at bat was over. He was defeated.

[diehardtwinsfan]

We already saw he wasn't ready in April.  One hot month of May hasn't changed that.  Thrylos is right about this one.  Buxton needs to change his approach to lay off certain types of pitches.  One month isn't going to change those fundamentals.  He's doing well and he's confident now... by all means, let him do his course correction here and just enjoy it.  Me personally... probably August sometime, maybe September. 

 

As for 2017, I'd probably go get an AAAA CFer with the plan of that guy manning Rochester's CF next year and let Buxton start there opening day. 

[jokin]

 

I would watch the breaking balls as others point out, but also his numbers with two strikes (where he coincidentally sees a lot of breaking balls).

When he had two strikes up here, the at bat was over. He was defeated.

 

Numbers with two strikes? Virtually every count at the major league level was 0-2 (or so it seemed).

 

He seems currently locked into the AAAA conundrum- too good for this level, but completely unable to succeed at the highest level. And his power surge- without the walks- doesn't seem to begin to solve this conundrum.

 

Does anyone know if he he's successfully bunted for any hits in Rochester? I can't believe what an unaccomplished bunter Buck is- isn't that something that management should have anticipated as a top priority for Buxton to master before this to help ensure success at the major league level?

[Guest]

In 2010, when he was 23 and had already struggled in the majors after being a top ranked minor leaguer, with great tools, Player A hit .338 with a .900+ OPS on a .392 BABIP and a sub-17% K rate on about 150 PAs in AAA. He was then brought back up and struggled to be mediocre for several years, with a K rate below 19% only in his Year 28 season. This is Cameron Maybin.

 

Buxton needs to improve his swing and his eye. We can't tell much from counting stats in AAA, where his athletic talent gives him a huge advantage. Even if would be a 10 WAR player, one silver lining of a horrible season is that, because he couldn't really salvage much, there is no fight for the playoffs reason to take a chance on missing a development step. He should stay down until reports say that his eye and swing have improved.

[Winston Smith]

I'm not sure it's a good idea to have any of our "real" prospects playing with this team at this point and end up learning how to stink day after day. Let them have some success before joining the total system failure bunch.

[jimbo92107]

One more month, baby. If he can keep doing what he's doing until July, then you call him up and let him get his at bats in the show. 

 

Let's bear in mind that there should no longer be a sense of urgency. It's practically impossible for this team to get to the playoffs right now, so this is a training season. Let all the young players get reps at the level that's best for their development. Hopefully they'll solidify their skills and be ready to attack the division next year or the year after that. That goes for Buxton and every other riser. 

[Major League Ready]

 

One distinctive difference in May is the sudden power surge- versus his accustomed minor league MO more along the lines of turning outs into singles, singles turned into doubles, doubles into triples.

 

Whatever they're teaching him in Rochester, more power usually ultimately translates to more Ks, not less- so I'm not certain what exactly is being accomplished here? Have they given up, at least for the time being, of having Buxton becoming their ultimate High-OBP leadoff guy?

Smalley was on 1500 yesterday.  He said they sent him Rochester with instructions to work on loading on his right side.  He was asked when Buxton should be recalled.   Smalley suggested it would be a mistake to rush him given the change in mechanics.  Buxton needs enough reps to make this change feel natural.

 

The intent of the change is timing as much as power.  He will still need to learn how to hit a curve but the results of this change in mechanics look promising.  The AAA version of Buxton playing here would make a huge difference to this team.  Not to mention it would give us something worth watching.

 

[markos]

 

You didn't really clear up what I was confused by. How do you suggest he "learn to hit a good breaking ball" if he's only seeing "aaa fastballs"?.

Sure if his walk rate was 14% instead of 8% it would be great, but he's getting on base nearly 40% of the time and slugging almost .600. I'm really unclear why people keep wanting to move the goalposts when it comes to Buxton, Go ahead and disagree with me in when he should come back up (I say sooner than later, couple weeks), but don't act like what he is doing in AAA right now is just meh.

 

I wouldn't describe his current performance as 'meh', but I don't think it is significantly different than his performance at AAA in 2015: slightly above the league-average strikeout rate, slightly below the league-average walk rate, and buoyed by a high BABIP. The biggest difference this time around is that he is in the midst of power-spike - his current .242 ISO is way above his career average. 

 

My goalposts haven't changed: I want him to have 150+ PAs with a <20% K%, >10% BB% and >.150 ISO. And while I would like to see him get another 100 PAs or so to see if he can get back to taking walks like he was in 2013, but I don't see that happening. His overall stat line is just too good right now, even though it is mostly BABIP and ISO driven (which can be so noisy in smallish samples). My guess is he is back up within two weeks.

[tobi0040]

I wouldn't describe his current performance as 'meh', but I don't think it is significantly different than his performance at AAA in 2015: slightly above the league-average strikeout rate, slightly below the league-average walk rate, and buoyed by a high BABIP. The biggest difference this time around is that he is in the midst of power-spike - his current .242 ISO is way above his career average.

 

My goalposts haven't changed: I want him to have 150+ PAs with a <20% K%, >10% BB% and >.150 ISO. And while I would like to see him get another 100 PAs or so to see if he can get back to taking walks like he was in 2013, but I don't see that happening. His overall stat line is just too good right now, even though it is mostly BABIP and ISO driven (which can be so noisy in smallish samples). My guess is he is back up within two weeks.

Buxton may always be a player with higher babip and an OPS that is helped by taking extra bases. Speed kills. I think we need to factor that in with league comps