Whom do the Twins sell in 2016?

[jimmer]

 

I doubt we get anything for Suzuki and Hughes.

 

 

There's a reason we were able to originally sign them both so cheaply when we originally signed them. Teams knew better.  So I agree, we don't get anything of value for either of them in a trade or even if we pair them together.

 

I'm not not talking about the horrendous, predictably horrible decision to re-sign both of them, but the original signings.

[Shaitan]

 

Huh, I liked it the first year, did it change? I mean, liked it better than most commercial beer......

It changes every year.

[nater79a]

 

The main problem is that with the exception of Plouffe, Abad, and maybe Nunez, none of these guys would be selling at high or even fair value, given recent performance. Some (Suzuki, Hughes, Santana, Perkins (at least unless he bounces back)) the Twins probably couldn't even dump for basically free, but rather would have to chip in cash.

 

Also, even though I know the chances of it happening are like 2%, the Twins should seriously consider trading Dozier.

 

Agree.  Disappointed with Dozier even before he got the new contract.  Would move Dozier and install Polanco at 2B. Won't happen though.

[nater79a]

 

I'm hesitant to move anyone with the current front office in charge. Add to that the possibility of drastic changes after the season is over. For me it's bad timing to move anyone before the trade deadline.

 

Drastic changes? When did the Pohlad's sell the Twins? Must have missed that news.

[Thrylos]

 

Trade anyone over 25 yrs old for anything you can get including baseballs and broken bats.

 

Including Park and May?

[Mr. Brooks]

I have to disagree on Gibson.

I don't think he would make a playoff rotation.

 

I don't think a well run organization would be fooled by a lucky 2015 that was never sustainable.

It's just incredibly rare to have continued success when you don't miss any bats.

I'm not saying you have to be Pedro Martinez, but you can't be among the lowest in baseball.

 

Kyle Gibson is Nick Blackburn.

[Mr. Brooks]

Including Park and May?

If Park keeps this up long enough that he can get a legit blockbuster package, then I absolutely would.

This team is still several years away from contention, how valuable do we really think about 32 or 33 year old DH is going to be by then?

Plus, it allows Sano or Arcia to move to DH.

[Primetime82]

This is not good business but if the Twins can't trade some of these dead weight players, they should realistically just cut bait and eat the contract. If they can't trade Nolasco by seasons end, just cut the guy. Phil is a little more complicated but if he don't regain form and we see this early next season, cut him. 

 

They can easily eat some of these contracts and still profit. The owe us after stealing the stadium and penny pinching.

[Mr. Brooks]

This is not good business but if the Twins can't trade some of these dead weight players, they should realistically just cut bait and eat the contract. If they can't trade Nolasco by seasons end, just cut the guy. Phil is a little more complicated but if he don't regain form and we see this early next season, cut him.

 

They can easily eat some of these contracts and still profit. The owe us after stealing the stadium and penny pinching.

I could see Nolasco as a potential ST cut next year if we can't move him, as it would be his final year.

Hughes is not a outright release candidate. No team in baseball would do that, not with 3 years and 50 million.

[Thrylos]

 

Kyle Gibson is Nick Blackburn.

 

Career numbers:

 

Gibson: 4.09 FIP, 1.371 WHIP

 

Blackburn: 4.81 FIP, 1.472 WHIP

 

Ervin Santana: 4.25 FIP, 1.288 WHIP
Brad Radke: 4.24 FIP, 1.260 WHIP
Cark Pavano: 4.15 FIP, 1.340 WHIP

Al Leiter: 4.10 FIP, 1.386 WHIP

 

To me he looks like he belongs to the second group.  I'd take Pavano's or Leiter's career (esp their Miami years) for Gibson.

 

Gibson is a good 3-4 in a winning team

 

[USAFChief]

If Park keeps this up long enough that he can get a legit blockbuster package, then I absolutely would.

This team is still several years away from contention, how valuable do we really think about 32 or 33 year old DH is going to be by then?

Plus, it allows Sano or Arcia to move to DH.

If he can hit, very valuable.

 

When did 32 become too old to play baseball?

[Mr. Brooks]

Career numbers:

 

Gibson: 4.09 FIP, 1.371 WHIP

 

Blackburn: 4.81 FIP, 1.472 WHIP

 

Ervin Santana: 4.25 FIP, 1.288 WHIP

Brad Radke: 4.24 FIP, 1.260 WHIP

Cark Pavano: 4.15 FIP, 1.340 WHIP

Al Leiter: 4.10 FIP, 1.386 WHIP

 

To me he looks like he belongs to the second group. I'd take Pavano's or Leiter's career (esp their Miami years) for Gibson.

 

Gibson is a good 3-4 in a winning team

Different eras.

Most those other guys pitched at the tail end of the steroid era.

 

Career ERA+

Radke 113

Leiter 112

Santana 99

Pavano 96

 

Gibson 89

Blackburn 86

 

Gibson is a lot closer to Blackburn than those other guys. And Gibson is in the middle of his prime years. Those other guys have their decline years in those numbers.

[Mr. Brooks]

If he can hit, very valuable.

 

When did 32 become too old to play baseball?

Post steroid era, guys not named Ortiz who are power DH types don't have much value at those ages.

I'm fine keeping him and gambling that he's the rare one who keeps hitting into his mid 30's, but I'd be tempted if it was for a legit package of near mlb ready prospects.

We have plenty of DH types, I don't think we lose much overall production trading Park and moving Sano or Arcia to DH.

 

Defense matters too, despite the Twins telling you otherwise.

[Platoon]

Yup, like when I go to the liquor store and the seasonal beer is on sale because it's no longer that season and they need to make room for the new seasonals.

 

The liquor store will sell at cost to bring in the newer flashier beer, and THEY don't care that I just got a good bargain.

 

Though to be fair, there was a reason that the Schell's Snowstorm (Brown Ale) sat on sale for two months; no one wanted that awful mess. Sometimes you just got to toss it in the dumpster and eat the loss.

It's a craft beer, made by fine upstanding genuine Germans! .

[DaveW]

Plouffe is the definition of an average player, one that plays a non premium position. Couple that with a 7 mil pay day and only one more year of arb and you realize quickly that at no point will teams give up a whole lot to get him. They need to trade him for anything they can get at this point, I would be happy with a top 300 prospect with some upside.

[Thrylos]

 

Different eras.
Most those other guys pitched at the tail end of the steroid era.

Career ERA+
Radke 113
Leiter 112
Santana 99
Pavano 96

Gibson 89
Blackburn 86

Gibson is a lot closer to Blackburn than those other guys. And Gibson is in the middle of his prime years. Those other guys have their decline years in those numbers.

 

 

ERA and its derivatives do not cut it...

(and Santana is part of the Steroid era)

 

[Mr. Brooks]

ERA and its derivatives do not cut it...

(and Santana is part of the Steroid era)

ERA is flawed as a predictive stat. Looking at careers that are already over there is nothing wrong with it.

[jctwins]

 

No way would I trade Gibson. I believe he still has the makings of a really good pitcher.

 

I'm sure another organization will find a way to make him into one, as well.

[strumdatjaguar]

No reason to trade any player when we won't get anything reasonable in return - so the Nolascos and Gibsons stay in hope they improve next year, or atleast provide something in lower rotation or in pen..   The obvious ones who could get something in return are Abad, Plouffe, Dozier, Ervin Santana and Nunez.   Unfortunately, the Twins are now aiming for 2018 (probably 2019) with next year as another rebuilding year.

[DocBauer]

One...I absolutely would not trade Gibson. Are we really so jaded with this season that we would trade a solid, still relatively young SP this soon due to frustration? Let's get real people! He had a solid "rookie" year in 2014 and an even better 2015 despite W-L record. He has flashed almost dominance at times, and you want to dump him based an a couple poor starts before going on the DL?

 

Two...Plouffe is a solid, productive ML player. Quit the hate out of frustration that he's not a stud or trade able stud. He really should be moved at this point, or soon, for whatever can be acquired. And it stinks that there isn't a big market for a solid, productive 3B like there was a few years ago. She point 3 for more.

 

Three...despite attempts to improve the team, or at least keep it afloat for contention, the Twins find themselves now find themselves handcuffed to a few contracts. And we argue and debate at length about such. But in the rather obscene reality of financial contracts of sports today...a rookie contract pays more than most of us will make 5 plus years. If the Twins were to cut bait on some of these contracts...possibly getting something back with money or a prospect thrown in...they would be replacing said contract player with a minimum or slightly above contract for a year or two. Isn't that worth a more interesting, competitive, building for tomorrow team?

 

Move Nolasco, Perkins if you can when healthy, Hughes or Santana if you can, Plouffe, maybe Dozier, and move forward.

[beckmt]

Plouffe and Dozier have to hit to have value.  Best bet of moving Plouffe was to the Yankees as Headley is not hitting.  That ship may have sailed as Yankees drift out of contention.  Opportunities will present themselves, Twins just have to move the players when they do.

1/2 of the pitching staff is unmoveable, so some of the pitchers will have to moved, that can wait until this coming offseason, as the replacements will not be ready until 2017 if not 2018.

[blindeke]

 

 

 

Ervin Santana: 4.25 FIP, 1.288 WHIP
Brad Radke: 4.24 FIP, 1.260 WHIP
Cark Pavano: 4.15 FIP, 1.340 WHIP

Al Leiter: 4.10 FIP, 1.386 WHIP

 

 Gah you just reminded me of CARK PAVANO

 

(Carl Pavano)

 

Thanks for that. What's next? Tone Fiore? 

 

 

[mikelink45]

The Yankees need a third baseman and Plouffe would fit well here.  Look for injuries and problems and sell all that can be moved if they are 27+   Clear the logjam.  Mauer can't be moved, Park should be held, but after that move the remaining three infielders.  

 

Gibson may be the only starter who can be moved, but once again the logjam of these long, pricey contracts to Vet starters is eating up roster room.

 

I would rather lose with youth that be mediocre with the veterans.

 

And please, if Molitor is secure, maybe we need to look at this coaches and start some movement, just for the sake of showing some life and concern.

[70charger]

 

This is not good business but if the Twins can't trade some of these dead weight players, they should realistically just cut bait and eat the contract. If they can't trade Nolasco by seasons end, just cut the guy. Phil is a little more complicated but if he don't regain form and we see this early next season, cut him. 

 

They can easily eat some of these contracts and still profit. The owe us after stealing the stadium and penny pinching.

 

I wonder if cutting bait ISN'T good business. 

 

Hear me out. If the Twins keep trotting out the same old cast of characters and keep losing 70% of their games, the butts will not fill the seats. That's a lot of ticket revenue and lost beer and hot dog sales.

 

If - just for the sake of argument! - we had a starting pitcher who costs about $14 million a year and hasn't performed for multiple years, we could cut him, pay an exciting rookie marginally more, and even if said rookie struggles, get the same amount of performance.

 

So you've swapped a $14 million annual cost for a $14.5 million annual cost, but in the meantime you've done multiple important things:

 

1 - you've signaled to the fan base that you think losing isn't okay;

2 - you've stoked fan interest because who doesn't want to come out and see the hot new rookie?;

3 - you've bought a lottery ticket in a rookie that could really, really pay off;

4 - you've set next year's team up for more success (and more butts in the seats) because the rookie can work out the kinks now.

 

As counterintuitive as it may sound, I think accepting millions in dead money can be a financial winner for the team, even in the short term. 

 

I think that you get value for any guy that you can get value for. But if no one bites on your bad contracts, you can't be shy. Pull the trigger and put the contract out of its misery.

[alarp33]

 

I'm 100% all for trading all of the guys you listed and nothing in my post was inconsistent with that. But that doesn't mean you just say here is Trevor Plouffe or Kyle Gibson for a C level prospect or here is Hughes plus a prospect (or $20 million) for nothing in return.

 

If Trevor Plouffe was totally healthy right now and hitting closer to what he did last year, I don't think he would get more than a C prospect.  He's a non-tender candidate next year - would be in line to be the 5th highest paid 3rd baseman in baseball

[mudcat14]

The main problem with trading Plouffe right now is there are a very limited number of suitors for him.  Of the contenders, only Washington (Rendon), the Dodgers (Turner) & Baltimore (JJ Hardy) might consider him an upgrade over what they already have.  Except for Houston, everyone who could use him is in the same boat we are, looking for young talent not dealing it away. 

[Loosey]

 

I wonder if cutting bait ISN'T good business. 

 

Hear me out. If the Twins keep trotting out the same old cast of characters and keep losing 70% of their games, the butts will not fill the seats. That's a lot of ticket revenue and lost beer and hot dog sales.

 

If - just for the sake of argument! - we had a starting pitcher who costs about $14 million a year and hasn't performed for multiple years, we could cut him, pay an exciting rookie marginally more, and even if said rookie struggles, get the same amount of performance.

 

So you've swapped a $14 million annual cost for a $14.5 million annual cost, but in the meantime you've done multiple important things:

 

1 - you've signaled to the fan base that you think losing isn't okay;

2 - you've stoked fan interest because who doesn't want to come out and see the hot new rookie?;

3 - you've bought a lottery ticket in a rookie that could really, really pay off;

4 - you've set next year's team up for more success (and more butts in the seats) because the rookie can work out the kinks now.

 

As counterintuitive as it may sound, I think accepting millions in dead money can be a financial winner for the team, even in the short term. 

 

I think that you get value for any guy that you can get value for. But if no one bites on your bad contracts, you can't be shy. Pull the trigger and put the contract out of its misery.

Absolutely agree.  As a financial analyst by trade, I sometimes wonder if the team has an FPA function within the organization.  I assume they have accountants on staff, but it seems they do not have anyone who thinks of the players as more of an investment in the business. 

 

Your example of cutting a $14M pitcher is a perfect example.  Right now that is what the team has and essentially is a sunk cost.  As the roster is currently constructed the team will bring in on average say 15,000 fans per game at $50 per ticket (assumptions).  Add in another $25 per person in concession costs and that is $1.125M in revenue per game * 60 remaining home games = $67,500,000 ( again this is just assumptions and most likely very low assumption).

 

Now lets say you trade said pitcher and have to eat his entire contract but get a AA prospect.  In turn New shiny rookie pitching prospect who costs $500k is now in his spot.  However, as you mentioned it shows the fan base that you are actively trying to improve the team and setting up the future.

 

Now by doing this there are factors that can affect this analysis but lets say new rookie pitcher is exciting and lights out.  The team starts to win a few games here and there and now butts are in the seats to see the future.  Now you average 20,000 fans per game.  You just upped your projected revenue from $67,500,000 to $90,000,000 ($22.5M) by increasing your attendance 5000 fans per game.  And all it cost you was $500K roster spot.

 

I assume the Twins have an FPA group that does this but is it used by by the baseball operations guys to make roster decisions that may help boost revenue and performance on the field.

[Thrylos]

 

ERA is flawed as a predictive stat. Looking at careers that are already over there is nothing wrong with it.

 

FIP is not predictive (xFIP  is.)  It just does not count the runs scrub relievers gave up once you got them on base, or runs that slow feet outfielders (and have been a ton with the Twins on Gibson's time from Colabello to Parmelee to Willingham to Arcia to Sano etc.) were responsible by turning singles into triples.

[nytwinsfan]

 

If Trevor Plouffe was totally healthy right now and hitting closer to what he did last year, I don't think he would get more than a C prospect.  He's a non-tender candidate next year - would be in line to be the 5th highest paid 3rd baseman in baseball

Just FYI, Plouffe is currently hitting better than last year right now. His current OPS is .773 compared to last year's .742. We ought to be able to get at least a B prospect for him, although I do realize the market for mid-tier starting 3rd basemen isn't at its highest point right now.

[HitInAPinch]

 

One...I absolutely would not trade Gibson. Are we really so jaded with this season that we would trade a solid, still relatively young SP this soon due to frustration? Let's get real people! He had a solid "rookie" year in 2014 and an even better 2015 despite W-L record. He has flashed almost dominance at times, and you want to dump him based an a couple poor starts before going on the DL?

Two...Plouffe is a solid, productive ML player. Quit the hate out of frustration that he's not a stud or trade able stud. He really should be moved at this point, or soon, for whatever can be acquired. And it stinks that there isn't a big market for a solid, productive 3B like there was a few years ago. She point 3 for more.

Three...despite attempts to improve the team, or at least keep it afloat for contention, the Twins find themselves now find themselves handcuffed to a few contracts. And we argue and debate at length about such. But in the rather obscene reality of financial contracts of sports today...a rookie contract pays more than most of us will make 5 plus years. If the Twins were to cut bait on some of these contracts...possibly getting something back with money or a prospect thrown in...they would be replacing said contract player with a minimum or slightly above contract for a year or two. Isn't that worth a more interesting, competitive, building for tomorrow team?

Move Nolasco, Perkins if you can when healthy, Hughes or Santana if you can, Plouffe, maybe Dozier, and move forward.

 

Agreed.  20.37% into the season.  I'm for waiting a little bit to see what happens after players make it off the DL and temps get warmer. 

 

Gibson can be a needed innings eater [really, really needed now]

 

Plouffe really is a solid MLB player.  Unfortunately, when need and opportunity are available [ NY Yankees ]  Plouffe is just coming off the DL.  Had this been as little as a couple weeks ago, Plouffe could possibly already be in NY.

 

Contracts.  Ufda.        We wanted MLB starting pitchers and TR got them.  As a team that doesn't have the big buck revenue, this is what the future looks like.  Sorry....

 

At this point in time, I'd say the #1 thing to do is get people healthy and keep them that way. Skip starts, rotate players, whatever.  Prep for mid-season and late-season trades.  Keep the MiLB pipeline rolling.