Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mr. Brooks]

I have very little faith in Gibson's ability to hold sustained performance but I don't give much thought to his age, as he was drafted out of college, had TJ surgery, and generally hasn't pitched all that much for a guy approaching 30 years old.

 

What I do know is that the Twins' pitching staff is pretty bad and spending $4m-ish to see if Kyle's second half is for real borders on no-brainer territory. I'd rather see what Gibson has in him than most/all of the free agent reclamation projects available this winter, all of which will cost as much or more than Kyle.

 

Go find a better pitcher to front the rotation with Santana and Berrios and let Kyle (and May) get a shot at the back of the rotation. One of the available arms/prospects (Gonsalves, Romero, Mejia) should be able to step in if both those guys falter (which I assume will be the case with May, who should probably open the season as the long man on a contending team).

I never argued that he shouldn't be brought back. But he's going to be an 86-90 ERA+ guy. You can attach all the disclaimers you want to his age, he's still 30 years old. Mileage on his arm has nothing to do with my point. I'm not worried he'll get hurt. Point me to the long list of guys that drastically improve at that age, sustainably, and perhaps I'd be swayed.

 

Either way he's getting a shot. Getting 2 arms pushes Mejia down to AAA. We'll check his numbers after next year, and see if he's turned a corner. I'm confident in my prediction.

[Squirrel]

Before this turns into a Gibson discussion thread I would like to remind everyone this thread is for posting Fangraphs and other national articles as it pertains to the Twins. If you want a more in depth discussion please start a dedicated thread.

[USAFChief]

Isn't the change in fastball grip the sort of "adjustment" that may help for a few starts, until the book on him changes? And isn't the slider only as good as his ability to locate it, which seems to come and go during a long season? His last three starts of the season, taken together, amount to the same old Gibby, in terms of results. I'm just not convinced he has turned any kind of corner.

As I said, I’m skeptical.

 

But it’s not like he just continued the same things and had a good stretch. I think someone convinced him to change his pitch mix. Easier to control the four seam, up, at 94-95, than the two seamer at 91-92. More called strikes, more swings and misses. Pitching ahead more, instead of always nibbling with the two seam and often 2-0 and 3-1. Being ahead in the count makes the slider more effective.

 

We’ll see. Probably a mirage. But IMO he wasn’t the exact same guy.

[prouster]

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/11/30/16719954/yu-darvish-free-agent-rumors-twins-yankees-cubs-brewers

 

In this article, Grant Brisbee predicts that Yu Darvish will sign with the Twins for pretty reasonable terms.

[crapforks]

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/11/30/16719954/yu-darvish-free-agent-rumors-twins-yankees-cubs-brewers

 

In this article, Grant Brisbee predicts that Yu Darvish will sign with the Twins for pretty reasonable terms.

The fan in me who has followed the team for a long time thinks 5/$120 is expensive. The more modern fan in me screams that you do this in a heartbeat. Only problem is, at that price, 12 teams would be biting.

[Thrylos]

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/11/30/16719954/yu-darvish-free-agent-rumors-twins-yankees-cubs-brewers

 

In this article, Grant Brisbee predicts that Yu Darvish will sign with the Twins for pretty reasonable terms.

 

Define "reasonable".  That is Mauer $$$

[Han Joelo]

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/11/30/16719954/yu-darvish-free-agent-rumors-twins-yankees-cubs-brewers

 

In this article, Grant Brisbee predicts that Yu Darvish will sign with the Twins for pretty reasonable terms.

Almost makes too much sense.

[prouster]

Define "reasonable". That is Mauer $$$

In this day and age, that seems reasonable for a front of the rotation arm, in my opinion. He's no Kershaw, of course, but Kershaw might bring in $40 million annually with his next contract.

[jimmer]

 

In this day and age, that seems IS reasonable for a front of the rotation arm, in my opinion. He's no Kershaw, of course, but Kershaw might bring in $40 million annually with his next contract.

FTFY :-)

 

Hosmer, who is a good player but no star, will likely get a 18-20M a year deal for 4 or 5 years.  A top of the line pitcher in FA will cost a ton. Kershaw is due something like 98M over the next 3 years and he can opt out after next year (and likely will).

 

Prices have gone up.

[Thrylos]

 

In this day and age, that seems reasonable for a front of the rotation arm, in my opinion. He's no Kershaw, of course, but Kershaw might bring in $40 million annually with his next contract.

 

Not that reasonable for Darvish's age 32-36 seasons.  Age matters.  And that is pretty much exactly the contract that Sabathia got in the same age, and it was one of the worst contracts out there.

 

3/$50M and a couple of options at $20M a piece is what I would think as "reasonable", as far as Darvish goes.  But I think of him as a number 2 in a contender, not as an ace.

 

The Twins have to extend some of the core pretty soon and they will need cash for that...

[prouster]

Not that reasonable for Darvish's age 32-36 seasons. Age matters. And that is pretty much exactly the contract that Sabathia got in the same age, and it was one of the worst contracts out there.

 

3/$50M and a couple of options at $20M a piece is what I would think as "reasonable", as far as Darvish goes. But I think of him as a number 2 in a contender, not as an ace.

 

The Twins have to extend some of the core pretty soon and they will need cash for that...

Ok, but those parameters would prevent them from making any serious offers to top tier free agents.

 

At any rate, there's plenty of money to go around if they want to spend $25 million per year on one player and extend several others. They have literally almost no money committed after 2019.

[Thrylos]

Fangraphs:  Which team can keep Otani the healthiest (and thus presumably would be the best destination for him?)

 

Guess their conclusion 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fangraphs: Which team can keep Otani the healthiest (and thus presumably would be the best destination for him?)

 

Guess their conclusion

I certainly didn’t see that coming.

[nicksaviking]

 

I certainly didn’t see that coming.

 

Nope, the training staff was the perhaps the most maligned faction of the organization a decade ago. Well done, on the turnaround. And yeah, thinking about it, the Twins have been pretty dang healthy comparatively speaking as of late.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nope, the training staff was the perhaps the most maligned faction of the organization a decade ago. Well done, on the turnaround. And yeah, thinking about it, the Twins have been pretty dang healthy comparatively speaking as of late.

I’m sure the old medical staff had its issues and improvements were made in that regard but I suspect most of this ranking system is based on luck and few data points.

 

Not that I’m bashing the Twins medical staff, I’m sure they’re a fully capable group of people. But I didn’t call for their heads five years ago so I’m not going to fall over myself praising them now.

[Vanimal46]

 

I’m sure the old medical staff had its issues and improvements were made in that regard but I suspect most of this ranking system is based on luck and few data points.

Not that I’m bashing the Twins medical staff, I’m sure they’re a fully capable group of people. But I didn’t call for their heads five years ago so I’m not going to fall over myself praising them now.

 

Yep, and one of the commenters in the article brought up a good point. The Twins historically tried to have players play through injuries, or let them sit on the bench and rest over putting them on the DL. 

 

It's interesting data to look at as a whole, but the data is flawed IMO. Teams use the DL in different ways. The Dodgers for example used the DL aggressively to keep arms fresh, and rotate in one of 10 other MLB caliber pitchers they have on the depth chart. 

[drjim]

I’m sure the old medical staff had its issues and improvements were made in that regard but I suspect most of this ranking system is based on luck and few data points.

 

Not that I’m bashing the Twins medical staff, I’m sure they’re a fully capable group of people. But I didn’t call for their heads five years ago so I’m not going to fall over myself praising them now.

One of the first things Terry Ryan did was replace the head trainer in 2012. Seems the move might have paid some dividends.

 

But also luck.

[terrydactyls]

Age matters But I think of him as a number 2 in a contender, not as an ace.

 

 

Don't you first have to have a number 1 starter before you can have a number 2? Since the Twins are currently without a number 1, then anyone better than Santana becomes the number 1 by default. And if a Darvish signing can entice a Shosei to sign, it's really a great price to pay.

[dbminn]

Andrew Simon at mlb.com looked at some of the Statcast highlights for 1st-year pitchers. Busenitz appears for speed and spin. About 2/3 the way through the article. Seems he finished 4th in mlb for speed/spin FB combo.

[nicksaviking]

 

Andrew Simon at mlb.com looked at some of the Statcast highlights for 1st-year pitchers. Busenitz appears for speed and spin. About 2/3 the way through the article. Seems he finished 4th in mlb for speed/spin FB combo.

 

Yeah, I was surprised he didn't get more strikeouts, his stuff always looked pretty good. Probably more of a case of small sample size. I could see him getting a run as the closer at some point.

[Mike Sixel]

Rob
3:19 Do the Twins spend big on FA's. Or do they extend Sano, Buxton, Berrios and Rosario and then spend with what they deem left?

 

Steve Adams
3:20 It's not one or the other. Any extensions for a guy like Buxton or Sano are going to come with a meager salary in 2018 -- those guys probably won't start earning real money, even under an extension, until year three or four of the deal, since those are all would-be arb years.

They can do both. And I do think they'll spend more than we're accustomed to seeing out of Minnesota.

 

Lou
3:54 Nick Gordon and international signing bonus to the Padres for Brad Hand. Who says no?

Steve Adams
3:54 Can't see the Twins giving up Gordon for two years of Brad Hand.

 

Mark
3:54 Do the Twins add a right handed free agent bat like Jose Bautista or Mark Reynolds?
Steve Adams
3:55 If the Twins aim to add a bat... they're going to aim higher than that.

 

Curt
4:20 Who signs Darish?

Steve Adams
4:20 It feels really weird to predict the Twins here, but that's what I'm doing.

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-12-5-17-2806.html

[ashbury]

Curt

4:20 Who signs Darish?

Steve Adams

4:20 It feels really weird to predict the Twins here, but that's what I'm doing.

Maybe the timestamp is an explanation...

[Thrylos]

 

Maybe the timestamp is an explanation...

 

And of course the question was for Darish, nor Darvish

[BK432]

 

Maybe the timestamp is an explanation...

 

I don't know if the Twins are going to sign Darvish, but I'm very confident that they're going to try hard to do so. There's almost no reason for them not to spend the money to sign him. Those 2019 payroll dollars are going to burn a hole in their pocket if they hang on to them.

[Mike Sixel]

Jeff: Is the talent in this year’s Rule 5 better than normal, or are there just more recognizable names that haven’t panned out?

 

 

Keith Law: Couple of more recognizable names – Nick Burdi’s name has come up a few times, I think he’ll go off the board – but not necessarily better ones

[Mike Sixel]

Derek Falvey

12:24 Do the Twins have a realistic shot at getting Darvish?

Dave Cameron

12:24 I haven't heard anyone else on Darvish, so sure.

Jon Bon Jovi

12:24 How do you feel about the Twins' signing of Pineda?

Dave Cameron

12:24 I love everything the Twins have done this winter.

They are having the off-season of my dreams

 

Derek Falvey

12:24 How likely is it that the Twins put together a package for a controllable starter like Cole or Archer?

Dave Cameron

12:24 Not sure they have the pieces to make that happen.

[Squirrel]

 

Derek Falvey
12:24 Do the Twins have a realistic shot at getting Darvish?
Dave Cameron
12:24 I haven't heard anyone else on Darvish, so sure.
Jon Bon Jovi
12:24 How do you feel about the Twins' signing of Pineda?
Dave Cameron
12:24 I love everything the Twins have done this winter.
They are having the off-season of my dreams

Derek Falvey
12:24 How likely is it that the Twins put together a package for a controllable starter like Cole or Archer?
Dave Cameron
12:24 Not sure they have the pieces to make that happen.

Why do posters use other people's real names? It's not confusing, it's just weird to read along and see questions from Falvey and Jon Bon Jovi.

[Mike Sixel]

Ohtani Kitaen

12:52 What have the Twins done other than sign Pinaeda and sell $2-million in international signing money for a couple of prospects? Hardly seems enough to be called the off-season of your dreams.

Dave Cameron

12:53 Hired Josh Kalk away from the Rays.

[nicksaviking]

Why do posters use other people's real names? It's not confusing, it's just weird to read along and see questions from Falvey and Jon Bon Jovi.

Why do you assume Jon Bon Jovi isn't a Twins fan and asking questions about his favorite team on a Fangraphs chat?

[Mike Sixel]

Roadhog

1:33 I like Darvish on the Twins, so I hope that happens. Bring back Chris Gimenez as well.

Eno Sarris

1:33 I mean they need, you know, an actual pitching staff beyond Berrios. So Yu would be a big start